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金属行业2026年投资策略:供需与降息共振,静待盈利与估值双升
Guoxin Securities· 2025-11-14 02:53
Core Views - The report emphasizes that the metal industry is expected to see a rise in prices and profitability due to supply-demand dynamics and interest rate cuts, with a focus on industrial metals like copper and aluminum [5][6][10]. Industrial Metals - Copper prices are projected to rise as the global copper market faces a supply shortage of approximately 1% in 2026 and 0.5% in 2027, primarily due to the anticipated recovery of the Grasberg and Panama copper mines [5][23]. - The report notes that the Grasberg copper mine's production cut has led to a significant upward adjustment in copper price expectations, with a potential price increase from 79,000 CNY/ton to 82,000-83,000 CNY/ton [21][24]. - Aluminum profitability is expected to increase further, with China's electrolytic aluminum capacity utilization reaching 98%, indicating a tight supply-demand balance that could lead to price surges if demand exceeds expectations [5][30]. Precious Metals - The long-term outlook for gold remains positive, driven by factors such as weakening U.S. non-farm data, manageable inflation, and a dovish stance from the Federal Reserve, which is expected to lower interest rates further [6][10]. Energy Metals - Cobalt prices are anticipated to rise due to policy changes in the Democratic Republic of Congo, which has implemented an export quota system that could create a supply-demand gap of over 10% in the global cobalt market [7]. - The lithium industry is expected to enter a new growth cycle, with demand for energy storage batteries significantly exceeding previous forecasts, leading to a potential supply shortage if production does not keep pace [8]. Minor Metals - The strategic importance of rare earth metals is highlighted, with China maintaining a dominant position in global production and supply, which is expected to strengthen prices further [10]. - Tungsten prices may rise due to recovering overseas demand and relaxed export controls, while antimony prices are also expected to increase following recent export policy adjustments [11][12]. Uranium - The demand for uranium is projected to increase alongside the growth of nuclear power generation in China, with expectations of a significant rise in nuclear capacity by 2035 [13]. Recommended Stocks - The report suggests a selection of stocks across various metal sectors, including copper, aluminum, precious metals, energy metals, and minor metals, indicating a diversified investment strategy [14].
洛阳钼业11月13日大宗交易成交404.16万元
Core Viewpoint - Luoyang Molybdenum Co., Ltd. has seen significant trading activity, with a notable block trade on November 13, indicating investor interest and potential market movements [2][3]. Group 1: Trading Activity - On November 13, a block trade of 240,000 shares was executed at a transaction value of 4.0416 million yuan, with a trading price of 16.84 yuan per share [2][3]. - The buyer was Guotai Junan Securities Co., Ltd. headquarters, while the seller was Huatai Securities Co., Ltd. Beijing West Third Ring International Financial Center [2][3]. - In the last three months, Luoyang Molybdenum has recorded a total of 8 block trades, amounting to 354 million yuan [2]. Group 2: Stock Performance - The closing price of Luoyang Molybdenum on the day of the block trade was 16.84 yuan, reflecting a 4.73% increase [2]. - The stock had a turnover rate of 1.75% and a total trading volume of 5.123 billion yuan for the day, with a net inflow of 349 million yuan in main capital [2]. - Over the past five days, the stock has increased by 1.63%, although there was a net outflow of 205 million yuan during the same period [2]. Group 3: Financing Data - The latest margin financing balance for Luoyang Molybdenum is 3.573 billion yuan, which has increased by 127 million yuan, representing a growth of 3.68% over the past five days [3]. - Luoyang Molybdenum was established on December 22, 1999, with a registered capital of 4.2788620352 billion yuan [3].
洛阳钼业(03993) - 海外监管公告 - 关於对外担保计划的公告
2025-11-13 13:43
香港交易及結算所有限公司及香港聯合交易所有限公司對本公告的內容概不負責,對其準確性 或完整性亦不發表任何聲明,並明確表示,概不對因本公告全部或任何部份內容而產生或因倚 賴該等內容而引致的任何損失承擔任何責任。 本公告乃根據香港聯合交易所有限公司證券上市規則第13.10B條而作出。 以下為洛陽欒川鉬業集團股份有限公司(「本公司」)於上海證券交易所網站 (www.sse.com.cn )所發佈《洛陽欒川鉬業集團股份有限公司關於對外擔保計劃的公 告》。 (於中華人民共和國註冊成立的股份有限公司) (股份代號:03993) 海外監管公告 承董事會命 洛陽欒川鉬業集團股份有限公司 劉建鋒 董事長 中華人民共和國河南省洛陽市, 二零二五年十一月十三日 於本公告日期,執行董事為劉建鋒先生及闕朝陽先生;非執行董事為林 久新先生及蔣理先生;及獨立非執行董事為王開國先生、顧紅雨女士及 程鈺先生。 * 僅供識別 股票代码:603993 股票简称:洛阳钼业 编号:2025—057 CMOC Group Limited* 二、担保计划执行情况 公司于2025年6月14日、2025年7月11日、2025年8月16日、2025 年10月1 ...
年内涨幅75%!有色板块一骑绝尘!还能再涨吗?5股涨停,紫金矿业涨超4%,有色龙头ETF(159876)暴拉3.9%
Xin Lang Ji Jin· 2025-11-13 11:38
Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metal sector has seen a significant influx of over 17.7 billion in main capital, ranking second among 31 primary industries in the Shenwan classification, with leading companies like Huayou Cobalt and Tianqi Lithium attracting substantial net inflows [1][3] Group 1: Market Performance - The non-ferrous metal sector has outperformed other industries, with a year-to-date increase of 75.9%, surpassing telecommunications (61.88%), electronics (48.1%), and power equipment (45.12%) [4][5] - Among the 60 constituent stocks of the Non-Ferrous Metal Leader ETF, 41 stocks rose over 2%, with five stocks hitting the daily limit up, and significant gains observed in Tianqi Lithium and Zhongmin Resources [3][5] Group 2: Investment Drivers - The strong performance is attributed to several factors: 1. Financial results show that 56 out of 60 companies in the Non-Ferrous Metal Leader ETF reported profits, with 44 companies experiencing year-on-year growth in net profit [5] 2. The current bull market is driven by demand from emerging sectors such as new energy, AI, and aerospace, alongside supply-side disruptions that highlight the scarcity and strategic value of metals [5] 3. Policy support from the government, including a joint plan to stabilize growth in the non-ferrous metal industry, is expected to enhance the sector's performance [5] Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the non-ferrous metal sector will continue to thrive, with expectations of a new cycle driven by supply-demand balance and global monetary easing [6][5] - The investment interest in commodities is likely to persist, with anticipated price increases for copper and cobalt due to supply constraints and rising demand for lithium driven by energy storage needs [6]
洛阳钼业今日大宗交易平价成交24万股,成交额404.16万元
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-11-13 09:33
11月13日,洛阳钼业大宗交易成交24万股,成交额404.16万元,占当日总成交额的0.08%,成交价16.84元,较市场收盘价16.84元持平。 | 交易日期 | 证券简称 | 证券代码 | 成交价(元) 成交金额(万元) 成交量( * ) 买入营业部 | | | 卖出营业部 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025-11-13 | 洛阳铝业 | 603993 | 16.84 404.16 | 24 | 国泰海通证券股份 有限公司总部 | 华泰证券股份有限 公司北京两三环国 | ...
洛阳钼业(603993) - 洛阳钼业关于对外担保计划的公告
2025-11-13 08:45
2025年5月30日,公司2024年年度股东大会审议通过《关于本公 股票代码:603993 股票简称:洛阳钼业 编号:2025—057 洛阳栾川钼业集团股份有限公司 关于对外担保计划的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导 性陈述或者重大遗漏,并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法 律责任。 重要内容提示: 一、担保审批及授权情况 上述担保事项是基于目前业务情况的预计,根据可能的变化,在本次担保计划总额度的范围内,全资子公司成 员间的担保额度可以相互调剂,但在调剂发生时,对于资产负债率超过70%的担保对象,仅能从资产负债率超过70% 的担保对象处获得担保额度。本次担保均系为全资子公司提供担保,不涉及其他股东提供等比例担保的情形。 被担保方:相关全资子公司 本次担保金额:洛阳栾川钼业集团股份有限公司(以下简称"公 司")直接或通过全资子公司(含直接及间接全资子公司,下同) 为其他全资子公司合计提供总额预计不超过101亿元的担保。 本次担保不涉及反担保。 截至本公告披露日公司无逾期担保。 本次担保计划部分被担保方为资产负债率超过70%的全资子公司; 截至本公告披露日,公司对外担保总额 ...
储能产业爆发带动六氟磷酸锂价格强势反弹,稀有金属ETF(159608)盘中涨超5%,标的指数“锂”含量超16%!
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-11-13 03:11
Group 1 - The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate has rebounded strongly, rising from below 50,000 yuan/ton in July to over 120,000 yuan/ton by early November 2025, indicating potential for further increases in the short term [1] - Demand from the electric vehicle and energy storage industries has significantly boosted electrolyte procurement, while supply constraints due to previous capacity reductions have led to a tight overall supply situation, suggesting a recovery in industry profitability [1][2] - The overall revenue of the lithium battery supply chain reached 636.19 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 16.12%, with net profit rising by 40.37% compared to the same period last year [1] Group 2 - In October 2025, China's new energy vehicle sales reached 1.715 million units, a year-on-year increase of 19.93%, with the monthly sales share surpassing 50% for the first time [2] - The price of battery-grade lithium carbonate increased by 15.65% since early October, reflecting a generally upward trend in raw material prices, which presents investment opportunities in the lithium battery sector [2] - The recent price increase of lithium hexafluorophosphate is primarily due to a mismatch between supply and demand, with a surge in downstream market demand and a contraction in supply from small and medium enterprises exiting the market [2] Group 3 - As of November 13, 2025, the CSI Rare Metals Theme Index rose by 5.20%, with the Rare Metals ETF (159608) increasing by 5.04%, and a cumulative increase of 28.53% over the past three months [3] - The top ten weighted stocks in the Rare Metals ETF account for 60% of the index, with significant gains from companies like Tianhua New Energy and Rongjie Co., indicating strong performance in the sector [3] - The Rare Metals ETF closely tracks the CSI Rare Metals Theme Index, which includes up to 50 listed companies involved in the mining, smelting, and processing of rare metals, reflecting the overall performance of the rare metals sector [3]
港股铜业股涨幅居前 江西铜业股份涨3.26%
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-11-13 02:45
Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong copper industry stocks are experiencing significant gains, with multiple companies showing positive price movements in their shares [1] Group 1: Company Performance - Jiangxi Copper Co., Ltd. (00358.HK) increased by 3.26%, reaching HKD 32.92 [1] - Luoyang Molybdenum Co., Ltd. (03993.HK) rose by 3.19%, with shares priced at HKD 17.17 [1] - China Nonferrous Mining Corporation (01258.HK) saw a 3.03% increase, trading at HKD 15.3 [1] - Zijin Mining Group Co., Ltd. (02899.HK) gained 2.58%, with a share price of HKD 33.46 [1]
铜业股涨幅居前 美国政府停摆接近尾声 通胀预期助力铜市上涨
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-11-13 02:30
Group 1 - Copper stocks have shown significant gains, with Jiangxi Copper rising by 3.26% to HKD 32.92, Luoyang Molybdenum up 3.19% to HKD 17.17, China Nonferrous Mining increasing by 3.03% to HKD 15.3, and Zijin Mining up 2.58% to HKD 33.46 [1] - The recent commentary from Nick Timiraos indicates a notable division within the Federal Reserve regarding the threats posed by ongoing inflation versus a sluggish labor market, complicating the outlook for potential interest rate cuts [1] - Despite investor expectations for a possible rate cut in the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting, the internal disagreements have made previously feasible plans more complex [1] Group 2 - The U.S. House of Representatives has passed a temporary funding bill, marking a decisive step towards ending the longest government shutdown in U.S. history, which may reduce macroeconomic risks [2] - The copper market is experiencing a shift due to supply shortages from mining accidents, leading to tighter raw material availability that is now affecting the smelting sector [2] - Current copper prices are supported at the bottom, but breaking through previous highs will require additional positive drivers and significant capital inflow, suggesting a tendency for range-bound trading [2]
港股异动 | 铜业股涨幅居前 美国政府停摆接近尾声 通胀预期助力铜市上涨
智通财经网· 2025-11-13 02:27
Group 1: Copper Industry Performance - Copper stocks are experiencing significant gains, with Jiangxi Copper Co. rising by 3.26% to HKD 32.92, Luoyang Molybdenum Co. increasing by 3.19% to HKD 17.17, China Nonferrous Mining Corp. up by 3.03% to HKD 15.3, and Zijin Mining Group rising by 2.58% to HKD 33.46 [1] Group 2: Economic and Market Context - The U.S. Congress has passed a temporary funding bill, marking a decisive step towards ending the longest government shutdown in U.S. history, which reduces macroeconomic risks [2] - Despite the government shutdown nearing an end, uncertainty in economic data continues to create speculation regarding potential interest rate cuts in December [2] - A recent copper mine accident has led to expectations of raw material shortages, which have been reflected in prior trading, with current prices showing bottom support but requiring additional positive drivers and significant capital inflow for upward movement beyond previous highs [2]