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中信证券:预计年内人民币有望偏强运行,汇率中枢或难突破7.0
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-12-09 00:54
来源:市场资讯 长期:2026年人民币有望温和升值,汇率中枢破7的行情或需要内外因素的进一步共振。一是因美日和 美欧货币政策差导致的美日和美欧利差收窄、美国财政等政策以及特朗普干预美联储独立性等措施导致 美元指数信用受损,美元指数偏弱运行的趋势或将延续。二是2026年央行有望继续保持张弛有度的汇率 政策,助力人民币保持相对韧性。三是若国内政策协同发力,并带动经济内生动能逐步修复,则内外部 因素有望形成较大的合力,对人民币汇率持续走升形成催化。 ▍总结:11月下旬以来,美元指数走软为人民币汇率创造了较为友好的外部环境,叠加央行中间价报价 释放的引导信号,人民币汇率逐步升至年内新高并实现"三价合一"。 展望后市:1)短期来看,考虑到市场对于美联储12月的降息预期已充分定价,同时国内政策性金融工 具和其他增量政策对于经济的提振效果仍有待显现,央行的稳汇率政策更多在于防止单边一致性预期, 预计年内人民币有望偏强运行,汇率中枢或难突破7.0。但考虑到年底结汇的季节性效应,不排除阶段 性突破7.0的概率;2)进入2026年,我们预计美元指数偏弱运行的趋势或将延续,为人民币汇率构成相 对友好的外部环境。同时央行稳汇率政策张 ...
资本市场包容性适应性改革为科创注入强劲动能
(上接1版)在中信证券总经理邹迎光看来,资本市场的风险偏好与新质生产力行业更加兼容,能够提 供满足完整生命周期的全链条融资服务,并以激励机制有效促进创新活动与企业家精神的发挥。 "资本市场包容性、适应性有望不断提升。"南开大学金融发展研究院院长田利辉接受上证报记者采访时 表示:一方面,通过接纳科技型、创新型、专精特新等多元企业,更适配不同发展阶段的融资需求,借 助差异化制度设计,打破"盈利门槛"等传统限制,让优质资产与资金高效对接。另一方面,市场对外部 变化的动态响应能力不断提升,体现为面对科技创新的不确定性,为科技企业留足发展空间;依托并购 重组、再融资等政策工具箱灵活调节市场流动性与资源配置方向;通过互联互通扩容、跨境监管协作等 方式,平衡开放与风险防控,确保市场功能稳定发挥。 同时,险资等中长期资金入市政策持续"松绑",有望为科技创新注入持续稳定的金融活水。今年4月发 布的《关于调整保险资金权益类资产监管比例有关事项的通知》,上调了险资权益资产配置比例上限, 最高可达50%;12月发布的《关于调整保险公司相关业务风险因子的通知》,下调了保险公司投资相关 股票的风险因子。 数据显示,截至今年三季度末,人身 ...
招商银行“25深圳特发MTN005”申购结束前一小时内出现投资人撤标
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-12-08 10:55
招商银行 公告称,"25深圳特发MTN005"申购结束前一小时内出现投资人撤标, 中信证券 撤标规模 2000万元,申购价位2.32%,撤标时间17:59:27。 ...
资金流向日报:15个行业资金呈净流入
Market Overview - On December 8, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.54%, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 1.39%, the ChiNext Index climbed by 2.60%, and the CSI 300 Index gained 0.81% [1] - Among the tradable A-shares, 3,409 stocks rose, accounting for 62.67%, while 1,866 stocks declined [1] Capital Flow - The main capital saw a net inflow of 2.602 billion yuan throughout the day [1] - The ChiNext had a net inflow of 1.452 billion yuan, the Sci-Tech Innovation Board saw a net inflow of 2.746 billion yuan, and the CSI 300 component stocks had a net inflow of 1.424 billion yuan [1] Industry Performance - Out of the 25 primary industries classified by Shenwan, the top-performing sectors were Communication and Comprehensive, with increases of 4.79% and 3.03% respectively [1] - The sectors with the largest declines were Coal and Oil & Petrochemicals, with decreases of 1.43% and 0.84% respectively [1] Industry Capital Inflows - The Electronics industry led with a net inflow of 8.273 billion yuan and a daily increase of 2.60% [1] - The Communication industry followed with a net inflow of 2.387 billion yuan and a daily increase of 4.79% [1] - The Defense and Military industry had the largest net outflow of 3.567 billion yuan, despite a daily increase of 1.05% [1] - The Pharmaceutical and Biological industry experienced a net outflow of 2.700 billion yuan, with a daily increase of 0.12% [1] Individual Stock Performance - A total of 2,077 stocks saw net inflows, with 760 stocks having inflows exceeding 10 million yuan, and 134 stocks with inflows over 100 million yuan [2] - The stock with the highest net inflow was Shannon Chip Creation, which rose by 15.25% with a net inflow of 1.065 billion yuan [2] - Other notable stocks with significant net inflows included CITIC Securities and Shenghong Technology, with net inflows of 1.050 billion yuan and 0.821 billion yuan respectively [2] - Conversely, 92 stocks experienced net outflows exceeding 100 million yuan, with Aerospace Machinery, BOE Technology Group, and Wuliangye leading in outflows of 1.150 billion yuan, 0.704 billion yuan, and 0.686 billion yuan respectively [2]
花旗:内地政策支持A股市场 中资券商股首选东方证券
智通财经网· 2025-12-08 09:55
花旗发布研报称,中国证监会主席吴清指,要通过并购或行业整合建立一流投资银行的政策方向,并放 宽对部分证券商的资本要求,鼓励他们提高杠杆。 该行相信,中国券商将受惠于A股市场支持政策,特别是具有高杠杆比率的券商,如中金公司 (03908,601995.SH)、中信证券(06030,600030.SH)、及东方证券(03958,600958.SH),预计中国证券商的 ROE将进一步上升,并可能促使公司重新估值,行业首选东方证券H股。 MACD金叉信号形成,这些股涨势不错! 该行提到,中国证监会就《基金管理公司绩效评估管理指引》向基金管理公司征求意见,为使公募基金 经理的利益与其基金的长期表现保持一致,另政策持续鼓励保险公司调整风险因素,将更多长期资金投 入A股市场,显示出内地对市场的支持。 ...
花旗:内地政策支持A股市场 中资券商股首选东方证券(03958)
智通财经网· 2025-12-08 09:48
该行相信,中国券商将受惠于A股市场支持政策,特别是具有高杠杆比率的券商,如中金公司 (03908,601995.SH)、中信证券(06030,600030.SH)、及东方证券(03958,600958.SH),预计中国证券商的 ROE将进一步上升,并可能促使公司重新估值,行业首选东方证券H股。 该行提到,中国证监会就《基金管理公司绩效评估管理指引》向基金管理公司征求意见,为使公募基金 经理的利益与其基金的长期表现保持一致,另政策持续鼓励保险公司调整风险因素,将更多长期资金投 入A股市场,显示出内地对市场的支持。 智通财经APP获悉,花旗发布研报称,中国证监会主席吴清指,要通过并购或行业整合建立一流投资银 行的政策方向,并放宽对部分证券商的资本要求,鼓励他们提高杠杆。 ...
天新药业跌1.06% 2022年上市即巅峰中信证券保荐
Zhong Guo Jing Ji Wang· 2025-12-08 09:22
Core Viewpoint - Tianxin Pharmaceutical (603235.SH) is currently trading at 27.10 yuan, reflecting a decline of 1.06% and is in a state of share price decline since its IPO [1] Group 1: IPO Details - Tianxin Pharmaceutical was listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange on July 12, 2022, with an initial public offering of 43.78 million shares, accounting for 10.00% of the total share capital post-issue, at a price of 36.88 yuan per share [1] - On its first trading day, the stock reached a peak price of 53.11 yuan, marking the highest point since its listing, but has since experienced a downward trend [1] Group 2: Fundraising and Use of Proceeds - The total amount raised from the IPO was 1,614.61 million yuan, with a net amount of 1,517.23 million yuan after deducting issuance costs, which was 880.51 million yuan less than the originally planned fundraising amount of 2,397.74 million yuan [1] - The funds were intended for projects including the construction of Vitamin A, Vitamin B5, cholesterol, and 25-hydroxyvitamin D3 production facilities, sales network and smart factory projects, corporate research institute projects, and to supplement working capital [1] Group 3: Underwriting and Fees - The underwriting institution for this issuance was CITIC Securities, with representatives Ding Yuan and Fang Chong [1] - The total issuance costs (excluding VAT) amounted to 97.37 million yuan, with CITIC Securities receiving 70.77 million yuan in underwriting and sponsorship fees [1]
港股收评:恒指收跌1.23%,再失26000点,中资券商股逆势走高
Ge Long Hui· 2025-12-08 08:37
具体来看: 大型科技股多数呈现下跌行情但总体跌幅较小,腾讯、京东、网易、小米、京东跌幅在1%以内,阿里巴巴、快手、携程控股跌超 1%,百度逆市大涨3.45%。 | 代码 | 名称 | 最新价 | 涨跌额 | 涨跌幅 √ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 09888 | 百度集团-SW.) | 125.800 | +4.200 | 3.45% | | 03690 | 美团-W | 99.500 | +0.450 | 0.45% | | 09626 | 時陣時陣-W | 203.600 | -0.200 | -0.10% | | 02015 | 理想汽车-W | 69.650 | -0.250 | -0.36% | | 01810 | 小米集团-W | 42.580 | -0.200 | -0.47% | | 099999 | 网易-5 | 216.800 | -1.200 | -0.55% | | 09618 | 京东集团-SW | 116.200 | -0.800 | -0.68% | | 00700 | 腾讯控股 | 605.000 | -5.000 | -0.82% ...
嘉麟杰:接受中信证券股份有限公司等投资者调研
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-12-08 07:49
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that Jialinjie (SZ 002486) will hold an investor meeting on December 5, 2025, where the company's general manager will address investor inquiries [1] - For the first half of 2025, Jialinjie's revenue composition is reported to be 100% from the industrial sector [1] - As of the report date, Jialinjie's market capitalization stands at 2.6 billion yuan [1]
非银金融行业动态点评:政策松绑助力扩表,看好券商高质量发展
East Money Securities· 2025-12-08 06:46
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "stronger than the market" rating for the non-bank financial sector, indicating an expected increase in performance relative to the market index [3][19]. Core Insights - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has proposed to optimize evaluation indicators for quality institutions and moderately expand capital space and leverage limits, which is expected to enhance the competitiveness of the brokerage industry and support high-quality development [1]. - The report highlights that leverage is a key factor in improving the Return on Equity (ROE) for brokerages, with historical data showing a significant increase in ROE from 3.2% in 2018 to 7.5% in Q3 2025, driven by an increase in client funds leverage from 3.27 times to 4.09 times [6]. - The brokerage industry is expected to continue optimizing its structure, focusing on "large and strong" firms and "small and beautiful" firms, promoting differentiated regulation to enhance the competitive landscape [6]. Summary by Sections Policy and Market Dynamics - The CSRC's recent announcements are aimed at creating a favorable environment for brokerages to increase leverage and expand their balance sheets, which is anticipated to lead to a stronger industry overall [1][6]. Financial Performance Metrics - As of Q3 2025, the leverage ratio for listed brokerages in China stands at 4.09 times, significantly lower than the 12-15 times leverage ratios of leading international investment banks, indicating substantial room for growth in domestic brokerages [6]. - The top ten listed brokerages have a leverage ratio of 4.54 times, while the ratios for the next tiers are 3.59 times and 2.99 times, respectively, suggesting that larger firms are more proactive in capital operations [6]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on large brokerages with significant competitive advantages, such as CITIC Securities, China Galaxy, GF Securities, and Huatai Securities, as well as smaller firms with effective niche strategies like Western Securities and Huaxi Securities [7].