Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" [8] Core Views - The company experienced a revenue decline of 9.4% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, with total revenue reaching 9.15 billion yuan and a net profit of 1.03 billion yuan, down 46% [1][2] - The decline in revenue is attributed to competitive pressures in the industry, consumer subsidies for childbirth, and inventory reduction efforts [2] - The gross margin decreased to 61.6%, down 6.3 percentage points, primarily due to an increased proportion of sales from raw milk products [3] - The company has a strong commitment to shareholder returns, distributing a mid-term dividend of 1 billion yuan, representing a 100% payout ratio [4] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 19.04 billion, 19.99 billion, and 20.83 billion yuan, with year-on-year changes of -8.2%, +5.0%, and +4.2% respectively [5] - The forecasted net profit for the same period is 2.31 billion, 2.60 billion, and 2.98 billion yuan, with year-on-year changes of -35.4%, +13.0%, and +14.6% respectively [5] - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected at 0.25 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 15.71 [7]

Core Viewpoint - The competition in the Chinese infant formula market is intensifying, with both Yili and Feihe claiming the top position based on different metrics [1][2]. Group 1: Market Positioning - Yili claims the number one position in the overall infant formula market, including both cow and goat milk formulas, with a market share of 18.1%, an increase of 1.3 percentage points year-on-year [1]. - Feihe asserts its dominance as the leading single brand in the infant formula market, maintaining this position for six consecutive years, although its revenue declined by 9.36% to 9.151 billion yuan in the first half of the year [1][2]. - The difference in rankings arises from Yili's inclusion of sales from Aoyou Dairy, which it acquired in 2022, thereby combining the sales of two listed companies [1][2]. Group 2: Sales Performance - Aoyou Dairy's core product, the goat milk formula brand Jiabei Aite, saw a sales decline of 8.9% to 1.38 billion yuan in the first half of the year, indicating that its contribution to Yili's overall sales is less significant than anticipated [2]. - Despite Yili's overall sales growth, the primary driver remains the double-digit growth in its infant formula segment, while Aoyou plays a more auxiliary role [2]. - Feihe's sales decline is attributed to factors such as delays in the approval and launch of ultra-premium new products and proactive inventory reduction [2]. Group 3: Market Trends - The Chinese infant formula market may face contraction due to a more than 20% decline in marriage registrations in 2024, suggesting a potential decrease in newborn numbers [2]. - However, the market is not necessarily losing its attractiveness, as government childcare subsidies may lead to a rebound in birth rates [3]. - The high-end segment of the infant formula market is becoming dominant, indicating a trend towards consumer spending upgrades, which presents significant profit opportunities for domestic dairy companies [3]. Group 4: Competitive Landscape - Domestic dairy companies like Yili and Feihe are well-positioned to benefit from the ongoing consumption upgrade, with superior milk sources that exceed EU standards [3]. - Significant investments in research and development by domestic dairy firms have led to comparable product quality with international brands, particularly in the infant formula sector [3]. - The fluctuations in market rankings may actually be beneficial for the industry, fostering competition and driving progress [3].

Core Viewpoint - The competition in China's infant formula market is intensifying, with both Yili and Feihe claiming the top position based on different metrics [2][3][4]. Company Performance - Yili has achieved the highest market share in the overall infant formula market, including both cow and goat milk formulas, with a market share of 18.1%, an increase of 1.3 percentage points year-on-year [3]. - Yili's revenue from milk powder and dairy products grew by 14.26% year-on-year to 16.578 billion yuan, with infant formula sales experiencing double-digit growth [3]. - Feihe, on the other hand, reported a revenue decline of 9.36% to 9.151 billion yuan in the same period, despite maintaining its position as the leading single brand in the market [4][7]. Market Dynamics - The difference in rankings arises from the fact that Yili's figures include sales from Aoyou Dairy, which it acquired in 2022, while Feihe's data reflects its standalone brand performance [4][6]. - Aoyou Dairy's performance has not significantly bolstered Yili's sales, as its core goat milk brand, Jiabei Aite, saw a sales decline of 8.9% to 1.38 billion yuan [5][6]. - The market share gap between Yili and Feihe is narrow, with Euromonitor data indicating Feihe's market share at 17.5% and Yili at 16.3% for 2024 [7]. Future Outlook - The infant formula market in China may face contraction due to a significant decline in marriage registrations, which is likely to lead to a decrease in newborn numbers [8]. - However, the market is not deemed unprofitable, as government childcare subsidies may lead to a potential increase in birth rates, and parents are increasingly willing to spend on high-quality products [9]. - The domestic infant formula market is characterized as a key battleground for consumer upgrades, indicating substantial profit potential [10].

Group 1 - The Chinese dairy market is in a recovery phase as of mid-2025, with major companies like Yili, Mengniu, and China Feihe leading in market capitalization [1] - Among the top five companies, four have revenues exceeding 10 billion yuan, with Yili at 61.3 billion yuan and Mengniu at 41.6 billion yuan [2] - Most companies have experienced a decline in revenue and net profit, with China Feihe's revenue down by 9.98% and net profit down by 46.66% [3][4] Group 2 - The overall market is facing pressure, particularly in the ambient liquid milk segment, as consumer preferences shift towards fresh products [5][6] - Price competition is intensifying, with smaller regional companies capturing market share from larger brands [7][8] - Despite revenue declines in liquid milk, some brands like New Dairy have seen growth in high-end product lines, indicating a shift in consumer demand [11] Group 3 - The dairy industry is experiencing a shift towards low-temperature fresh milk, which is gaining popularity over traditional ambient milk [16][20] - Companies are diversifying their product offerings to reduce reliance on liquid milk, with Yili and Mengniu seeing a decrease in the proportion of liquid milk revenue [14][15] - The infant formula segment is becoming increasingly competitive, with Yili and Feihe both claiming the top market share, although their statistics differ [23][24] Group 4 - Government policies, such as child-rearing subsidies, are stimulating demand for infant formula, contributing to revenue growth for several companies [27][28] - High-end infant formula products are gaining traction, with parents willing to spend more on quality, driving market prices upward [30] - Companies are increasingly focusing on B2B markets, with significant growth potential in sectors like food service and coffee [31][32] Group 5 - Major dairy companies are forming strategic partnerships with coffee and tea brands to enhance product sales, indicating a shift towards B2B collaborations [37][40] - The B2B market for dairy products, particularly high-end cream and cheese, is becoming a new growth engine for the industry [40]

| 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | 不適用 | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | | 是 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 06186 | 說明 | | | | | | | | | | 法定/註冊股份數目 | | | 面值 | | 法定/註冊股本 | | | 上月底結存 | | | 2,000,000,000,000 | USD | 0.000000025 | USD | | 50,000 | | 增加 / 減少 (-) | | | | | | USD | | | | 本月底結存 | | | 2,000,000,000,000 | USD | 0.000000025 | USD | | 50,000 | 股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 | | | 致：香港交易及結算所有限公司 公司名稱: 中國飛鶴有限公司 呈交日期: 2025年9月3日 I. 法定/註冊股本變動 本月底法定/註冊股本總額： USD 50,000 FF301 第 1 ...

Core Insights - The overall domestic dairy industry is under significant pressure, with over 60% of companies experiencing a decline in revenue year-on-year, while net profits show mixed results [1][2] Group 1: Financial Performance - The 28 listed dairy companies achieved a total revenue of 190.15 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.05%, and a net profit of 12.40 billion yuan, down 14.83% [2] - Cash flow from operating activities totaled 4.94 billion yuan, down 31.72%, while R&D expenses increased by 14.99% to 0.70 billion yuan [2] - Five companies reported revenues exceeding 10 billion yuan, with Yili and Mengniu dominating the market, accounting for 54% of total revenue and 74.6% of net profit among the 28 companies [2] Group 2: Trends and Challenges - Among the 28 companies, 17 reported a decline in revenue, with only 2 companies achieving over 10% growth [3] - The industry faces challenges such as supply-demand imbalances and changes in consumer demand and retail channels, prompting companies to innovate and optimize product structures [3][4] - Yili's liquid milk business saw an 11.22% revenue decline, while other segments like ice cream and cheese experienced double-digit growth [3] Group 3: Raw Milk Sector - The raw milk sector remains in a loss adjustment phase, but leading companies are showing resilience through cost control and strategic adjustments [5][6] - Modern Dairy maintained stable cash flow with a 23.3% increase in net cash flow, while costs for milk sales and feed decreased by 10.1% and 11.4%, respectively [5] - China Shengmu Organic Milk's revenue fell by 3.11%, but losses narrowed by 66.37% due to a focus on organic milk and cost reduction strategies [5] Group 4: Product Segments - The milk powder segment showed signs of recovery, with Yili's milk powder and dairy products revenue increasing by 14.26% [7] - Mengniu's milk powder revenue grew slightly, while H&H International's baby nutrition business reported 2.5 billion yuan in revenue, marking a strong performance [7] - The ice cream market thrived due to high temperatures, with Mengniu's ice cream revenue growing by 15% and Yili leading the market with 8.23 billion yuan in revenue [8] Group 5: Future Outlook - The dairy industry is expected to see a recovery trend, with leading companies leveraging full-chain layouts and technological innovations to stabilize their positions [8] - Analysts suggest that companies need to balance value cultivation and differentiated competition to build long-term competitiveness in changing consumer landscapes [8]

Industry Overview - The domestic infant formula market is experiencing a transformation, with a potential recovery in growth due to improved fertility support policies and an increase in newborn numbers [2][11] - Despite a 2.1% decline in sales and a 3.4% drop in volume in the offline infant formula market from January to July this year, the average price increased by 1.3% [2] - The ultra-premium segment of the infant formula market is growing significantly, with a 13.3% increase in the ultra-premium+ market from January to April this year [2] Market Dynamics - The market share of the ultra-premium+ segment has reached 33.2%, while the ultra-premium segment accounts for 31.2% [2] - Parents are increasingly willing to spend on high-quality infant formula, presenting opportunities for domestic brands [3][11] - The introduction of national childcare subsidies, effective from January 1, 2025, will provide families with 3,600 yuan per year for each child until the age of three, potentially boosting the infant formula market [7][11] Company Spotlight: Feihe - Feihe has reported a revenue of 9.15 billion yuan and a net profit of 1.03 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, maintaining its position as the market leader in infant formula [5] - The company has been the top seller in the Chinese infant formula market for six consecutive years and in the global market for four years [5] - Feihe's innovative approaches include a focus on brain development and partnerships with leading research institutions to enhance product quality [13][16] Technological Advancements - Feihe has developed a proprietary "milk protein fresh extraction technology" that improves the quality and nutritional value of its products [13] - The company utilizes AI technology across its supply chain, enhancing milk quality and production efficiency [15] - Feihe's quality management system ensures its raw milk quality significantly exceeds national and international standards [20] International Expansion - Feihe has established a production facility in Canada, addressing local supply shortages and expanding its market presence [22][24] - The company is also targeting Southeast Asian markets, starting with the Philippines, and plans to replicate its success in other countries [25] - In the first half of 2025, Feihe's overseas business generated approximately 110 million yuan [27] Product Innovation - Feihe is diversifying its product offerings, including adult nutrition products and innovative dairy snacks for children, which have received multiple awards [27][28] - The company is leveraging its research capabilities to create high-quality, functional products that meet evolving consumer demands [30]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic infant formula market is experiencing a transformation, with potential growth driven by improved fertility support policies and increasing consumer willingness to spend on high-quality products [2][4][29]. Market Performance - From January to July 2023, the offline infant formula market saw a sales decline of 2.1% year-on-year, with a volume drop of 3.4%, while the average price increased by 1.3% [2]. - The ultra-premium segment of the infant formula market grew by 13.3% year-on-year from January to April 2023, while the high-end and premium segments experienced declines of 14.6% and 4.8%, respectively [2]. Policy Support - The national childcare subsidy program, effective from January 1, 2025, will provide families with 3,600 yuan per year for each child until they reach three years old, which is expected to boost the birth rate and, consequently, the infant formula market [6]. - The implementation of free preschool education will reduce family childcare costs, estimated to save households 20 billion yuan in the upcoming semester [6]. Opportunities for Domestic Brands - Domestic brands, particularly leading companies like Feihe, are well-positioned to benefit from the market dynamics, as they are perceived to have comparable quality to foreign brands, especially in the high-end market [4][12]. - Feihe reported a revenue of 9.15 billion yuan and a net profit of 1.03 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, maintaining its position as the market leader in both sales and market share [4]. Technological and Quality Advancements - Feihe has established a robust product ecosystem, focusing on innovative research and development, including collaborations with prestigious institutions to enhance product quality [12][15]. - The company has developed advanced manufacturing capabilities, utilizing AI technology for quality control and supply chain efficiency [14]. International Expansion - Feihe's Canadian factory has begun producing infant formula, addressing local supply shortages and expanding its market presence in North America [21][24]. - The company is also targeting Southeast Asian markets, starting with the Philippines, and plans to replicate its success in other countries like Vietnam and Indonesia [24][26]. Product Diversification - Feihe is expanding its product range to include adult nutrition and innovative dairy products, receiving multiple awards for its new offerings [26][27]. Conclusion - The domestic infant formula market is at a critical transformation stage, with opportunities for growth driven by policy support, consumer trends, and the capabilities of leading brands like Feihe [29].

Core Viewpoint - China Feihe has demonstrated resilience in the face of industry challenges, maintaining its position as the leading player in both the Chinese and global infant formula markets, with a focus on quality and social responsibility [4][6][8]. Group 1: Company Performance - In the first half of 2025, China Feihe reported total revenue of 9.15 billion and a net profit of 1.033 billion [4]. - The company continues to hold the largest market share in the infant formula sector, achieving first place in both the Chinese and global markets for six and four consecutive years, respectively [7][8]. - Despite industry pressures, the company has not compromised on product quality, maintaining a strong brand trust among consumers [9]. Group 2: Quality Control and Production - China Feihe has established a complete industrial chain for infant formula since 2006, ensuring strict control over milk sources [10]. - The company operates 13 farms with over 100,000 cows located in the world's prime milk-producing region, ensuring high-quality milk supply [11]. - The production facilities adhere to stringent pharmaceutical-grade standards, with air purification levels comparable to those in hospital ICUs [12]. Group 3: Social Responsibility and Innovation - The company has proactively reduced channel inventory to maintain product freshness and has introduced a 1.2 billion yuan maternity subsidy plan to support families [13][14]. - China Feihe has invested nearly 100 million yuan over six years to establish the only industrial production line for lactoferrin in China, breaking foreign monopolies [15]. - The company has diversified its product offerings, launching adult milk powder and other health-focused products targeting various demographics [16][17]. Group 4: Financial Health and Shareholder Returns - China Feihe maintains a high asset ratio of fixed assets, which has historically been between 25% and 28% of total assets, indicating a robust operational leverage [22][24]. - As of June 30, the company reported cash reserves of 6.477 billion and structured deposits of 10.387 billion, with total bank borrowings under 1 billion, reflecting strong liquidity [24]. - The company announced a mid-year dividend of 0.1209 HKD per share, with total dividends expected to exceed 2 billion yuan annually, indicating a commitment to shareholder returns [25][30].

Group 1 - A new company named Feihe (Ningxia) Biotechnology Dairy Products Co., Ltd. has been established with a registered capital of 200 million yuan [1] - The legal representative of the new company is Sun Jianguo [1] - The business scope of the company includes dairy product production, food sales, and food production [1] Group 2 - Feihe (Ningxia) Biotechnology Dairy Products Co., Ltd. is wholly owned by Heilongjiang Feihe Dairy Co., Ltd. [1]