2023年6月14日，国联股份公告分红方案，每10股转增4.5股派息2.27元，股权登记日为2023年6 月19日，除权除息日为2023年6月20日。 2022年11月23日，华泰证券股份有限公司研究员朱珺、周钊、吴晓宇发布的研报《国联股份 (603613)：3Q净利略超预告 4Q有望延续增势》表示，维持国联股份"买入"评级。 （责任编辑：徐自立） 中国经济网北京10月20日讯 国联股份(603613.SH)今日股价收报27.93元，跌幅6.46%。 2022年11月22日，国联股份股价盘中达到131.75元，创下历史最高点。 ...

在监管部门持续倡导上市公司高质量发展、强化市值管理合规性的背景下，越来越多企业意识到科学价 值管理的重要性。但实际操作中，不少公司仍面临服务资源分散、专业支持不足、跨平台对接效率低等 问题。行知作为华泰证券一站式机构服务品牌，基于此类痛点，推出上市公司价值提升解决方案，以一 站式多元服务、高质量精准触达、专业服务品质等差异化优势构建竞争力。该解决方案并非单一服务模 块的简单拼接，而是依托华泰证券全业务链资源，提供涵盖市值管理诊断、业务专家咨询、投资者关系 管理等一站式专业服务，实现了价值创造、价值经营与价值传播的全周期覆盖。在助力企业价值传播方 面，行知协助企业开展品牌传播、路演服务、投融资交流、企业专访、可视化财报制作等，并依托已入 驻的专业投资机构和上市公司资源，以及华泰证券个人用户群体，帮助企业信息高效触达目标人群。 此外，行知还将依托华泰证券在投资银行、股份管理、企业理财等领域的专业力量，为上市公司提 供"融资+融智"的双重支持，提升资本市场服务深度。 港股上市公司声通科技(股票代码：2495.HK)近日签约华泰证券行知"上市公司价值提升解决方案"，标 志着该解决方案从产品发布迈向市场实践，也印证了资 ...

Core Viewpoint - Huatai Securities predicts Tencent Holdings' Q3 revenue will grow by 14.1% year-on-year, with adjusted net profit increasing by 9% to 65.2 billion yuan [1] Group 1: Revenue and Profit Forecast - Game revenue is expected to grow by 19% year-on-year [1] - Advertising revenue is projected to benefit from AI, with a potential year-on-year growth rate of 20% [1] - Financial technology revenue is anticipated to recover to an 11% year-on-year growth [1] Group 2: Key Catalysts - The game "Delta Action" has surpassed 30 million daily active users (DAU) as of September, becoming a new long-term shooter game for Tencent [1] - The estimated revenue for "Delta Action" is projected to reach between 12 billion to 18 billion yuan by 2026 [1] - The advertising business is expected to maintain high growth rates due to improved ROI driven by AI, with accelerated launches and iterations of AI Agent products [1] Group 3: Long-term Revenue Projections - Revenue forecasts for Tencent are adjusted to 755 billion, 851 billion, and 937 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [1] - Adjusted net profit forecasts are set at 257 billion, 291.7 billion, and 333.6 billion yuan for the same years [1] - The target price for Tencent is set at 759.47 HKD, corresponding to a 24.8 times P/E ratio for 2025, maintaining a "Buy" rating [1]

Core Viewpoint - Huatai Securities predicts Tencent Holdings' Q3 revenue will grow by 14.1% year-on-year, with adjusted net profit increasing by 9% to 65.2 billion yuan [1] Revenue Breakdown - Game revenue is expected to grow by 19% year-on-year [1] - Advertising revenue is anticipated to benefit from AI, with a potential year-on-year growth rate of 20% [1] - Financial technology revenue is projected to recover to an 11% year-on-year growth [1] Key Catalysts - The game "Delta Action" has surpassed 30 million daily active users (DAU) as of September, emerging as a new long-term shooting game for Tencent, with projected dual-end revenue reaching between 12 billion to 18 billion yuan by 2026 [1] - The advertising business is expected to maintain high growth due to improved return on investment (ROI) driven by AI, with accelerated rollout and iteration of AI Agent products [1] Financial Forecasts - Revenue forecasts for Tencent have been slightly adjusted to 755 billion, 851 billion, and 937 billion yuan for the years 2025 to 2027 [1] - Adjusted net profit forecasts are set at 257 billion, 291.7 billion, and 333.6 billion yuan for the same period [1] Target Price and Rating - The target price for Tencent is set at 759.47 HKD, up from the previous 752.17 HKD, corresponding to a 24.8 times price-to-earnings ratio for 2025, maintaining a "Buy" rating [1]

Core Viewpoint - Huatai Securities reports that GCL-Poly Energy has made significant progress in its photovoltaic materials business, achieving a turnaround in profitability in Q3 2023 [1] Financial Performance - The EBITDA for the photovoltaic materials business in Q3 is approximately 1.41 billion yuan, with a net profit of about 960 million yuan, both indicating a return to profitability [1] - The turnaround is attributed to several factors, including a transfer gain from joint ventures of about 640 million yuan, improvements in silicon material operations, and the reversal of inventory impairment losses [1] Industry Outlook - The report expresses optimism about the steady advancement of domestic photovoltaic industry reforms, which may reshape the supply-demand dynamics within the sector [1] - The company’s granular silicon energy consumption advantage is highlighted, along with the potential for its silane gas business to create a second growth driver, indicating significant profit elasticity [1] Valuation - Huatai Securities maintains a target price of 2.22 HKD for GCL-Poly Energy, based on a price-to-earnings ratio of 48 times for 2026, and continues to hold a "Buy" rating [1]

Core Viewpoint - Huatai Securities reports that China Pacific Insurance expects a net profit growth of 40% to 60% year-on-year for the first three quarters of 2025, with a projected single-quarter net profit growth of 57% to 122% for Q3 [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company anticipates significant growth in underwriting profits and benefits from the capital market's rise in the first three quarters, leading to a substantial year-on-year increase in total investment income [1] - The estimated improvement in the combined operating ratio (COR) for Q3 is expected to continue the trend observed in the first half of the year [1] Group 2: Investment Outlook - The investment side is expected to perform well, particularly benefiting from structural industry performance in the stock market [1] - Based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) valuation method, the target price has been raised from HKD 19.8 to HKD 21 [1] Group 3: Earnings Forecast - The earnings per share (EPS) forecast for 2025 has been increased to HKD 1.93, while the EPS forecasts for 2026 and 2027 remain unchanged at HKD 2.14 and HKD 2.32, respectively [1]

Group 1 - The US banking sector is facing long-term consolidation pressure due to the large number of small banks and rising costs of deposit acquisition, which may lead to higher asset quality risks [2] - The Chinese government has launched a three-year plan to double the number of electric vehicle charging facilities by 2027, aiming to establish 28 million charging points nationwide, which supports future infrastructure development [2] - Investors are advised to focus on structural highlights in Q3 reports, particularly in sectors like gold, AI-driven TMT, and non-bank financials, as well as industries less affected by economic cycles [3] Group 2 - The recent credit risk events in US regional banks have raised market concerns, but overall liquidity in the banking system remains sufficient, keeping credit risk manageable in the short term [2] - The plan for electric vehicle charging infrastructure includes the addition of 1.6 million DC charging guns, with a focus on high-power charging solutions and new business models [2] - Key sectors to watch for recovery include industrial metals, lithium batteries, innovative pharmaceuticals, and transportation equipment, which are expected to benefit from supply-side adjustments [3]

Core Viewpoint - Huatai Securities has released a strategy for Hong Kong stocks, indicating that the current global risk asset valuations are relatively high, with increased leveraged trading, leading to heightened market volatility due to tariff risks, overseas credit, and liquidity concerns. The impact is more emotional rather than a fundamental reversal, suggesting that better opportunities for increasing positions may still need to be awaited [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - Global risk asset valuations are at a high percentile [1] - Increased leveraged trading is contributing to market volatility [1] - Current market impact is driven more by emotional factors than fundamental reversals [1] Group 2: Investment Recommendations - Shift from a broad market rally mindset to a focus on fundamental performance [1] - Attention should be given to technology hardware with upward revisions in earnings expectations over the past month [1] - Consider pharmaceutical stocks that have experienced sufficient price corrections [1] - Focus on leading internet companies and consumer goods with stable ROE and revenue stabilization [1]

- **A-share multi-dimensional timing model**: The model evaluates the overall directional judgment of the A-share market using four dimensions: valuation, sentiment, funds, and technical indicators. Each dimension provides daily signals with values of 0, ±1, representing neutral, bullish, or bearish views. Valuation and sentiment dimensions adopt a mean-reversion logic, while funds and technical dimensions use trend-following logic. The final market view is determined by the sum of the scores across all dimensions [9][15][16] - **Style timing model for dividend style**: The model uses three indicators to time the dividend style relative to the CSI Dividend Index and CSI All Share Index. The indicators include relative momentum, 10Y-1Y term spread, and interbank pledged repo transaction volume. Each indicator provides daily signals with values of 0, ±1, representing neutral, bullish, or bearish views. The final view is based on the sum of the scores across all dimensions. When the model favors the dividend style, it fully allocates to the CSI Dividend Index; otherwise, it allocates to the CSI All Share Index [17][21] - **Style timing model for large-cap and small-cap styles**: The model uses momentum difference and turnover ratio difference between the CSI 300 Index and Wind Micro Cap Index to calculate the crowding scores for large-cap and small-cap styles. The model operates in two crowding zones: high crowding and low crowding. In high crowding zones, it uses a small-parameter dual moving average model to address potential style reversals. In low crowding zones, it uses a large-parameter dual moving average model to capture medium- to long-term trends [22][24][26] - **Sector rotation model**: The genetic programming-based sector rotation model selects the top five sectors with the highest multi-factor composite scores from 32 CITIC industry indices for equal-weight allocation. The model updates its factor library quarterly and rebalances weekly. The factors are derived using NSGA-II algorithm, which evaluates factor monotonicity and performance of long positions using |IC| and NDCG@5 metrics. The model combines multiple factors with weak collinearity into sector scores using greedy strategy and variance inflation factor [29][32][33][36] - **China domestic all-weather enhanced portfolio**: The portfolio is constructed using a macro factor risk parity framework, which emphasizes risk diversification across underlying macro risk sources rather than asset classes. The strategy involves three steps: macro quadrant classification and asset selection, quadrant portfolio construction and risk measurement, and risk budgeting to determine quadrant weights. The active allocation is based on macro expectation momentum indicators, which consider buy-side expectation momentum and sell-side expectation deviation momentum [38][41] --- Model Backtesting Results - **A-share multi-dimensional timing model**: Annualized return 24.97%, maximum drawdown -28.46%, Sharpe ratio 1.16, Calmar ratio 0.88, YTD return 37.73%, weekly return 0.00% [14] - **Dividend style timing model**: Annualized return 15.71%, maximum drawdown -25.52%, Sharpe ratio 0.85, Calmar ratio 0.62, YTD return 19.53%, weekly return -3.43% [20] - **Large-cap vs. small-cap style timing model**: Annualized return 26.01%, maximum drawdown -30.86%, Sharpe ratio 1.08, Calmar ratio 0.84, YTD return 64.58%, weekly return -2.22% [27] - **Sector rotation model**: Annualized return 33.33%, annualized volatility 17.89%, Sharpe ratio 1.86, maximum drawdown -19.63%, Calmar ratio 1.70, weekly return 0.14%, YTD return 39.41% [32] - **China domestic all-weather enhanced portfolio**: Annualized return 11.66%, annualized volatility 6.18%, Sharpe ratio 1.89, maximum drawdown -6.30%, Calmar ratio 1.85, weekly return 0.38%, YTD return 10.74% [42]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the insurance sector and recommends long-term investment in quality bank stocks [1][3]. Core Insights - The financial sector's performance this week shows a mixed trend, with the non-bank financial index down by 1.34%, while the banking sector saw an increase of 4.89%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 7.12 percentage points [1][9]. - The insurance sector experienced a notable increase of 3.65%, driven by positive earnings forecasts from New China Life, which projected a 45% to 65% increase in net profit for the first three quarters of 2025 [1][11]. - The report emphasizes the growth potential of the insurance industry, attributing it to supply-side reforms and the benefits from rising equity assets [1][12]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Performance and Sector Insights - The non-bank financial index decreased by 1.34%, while the banking sector increased by 4.89%, with state-owned banks leading the gains [1][9]. - The insurance sector outperformed the CSI 300 index by 5.87 percentage points, with New China Life's earnings announcement boosting overall market confidence [1][11]. 2. Insurance Sector Analysis - New China Life's earnings forecast led to a 12.58% increase in its stock price over five trading days, contributing to a six-day rally in the insurance sector [1][11]. - The report highlights the potential for the insurance sector to benefit from structural changes in the economy and improved asset performance [1][12]. 3. Brokerage Sector Analysis - The brokerage sector saw a decline of 3.13%, with a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 1.44x, indicating potential undervaluation [2][15]. - The report notes that the recent revisions to corporate governance standards by the CSRC could enhance the sector's governance and performance [2][15]. 4. Banking Sector Analysis - The banking sector's performance was strong, with a 4.89% increase, driven by a flight to quality amid market uncertainties [1][18]. - The report suggests focusing on banks with high growth potential and stable performance for both short-term and long-term investments [1][21].