Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a significant price increase over the next 6-12 months [3]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 42.896 billion yuan in 2024, a slight increase of 0.5% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 12.123 billion yuan, up 0.4% year-on-year. The performance aligns with expectations [1]. - The decline in H2 packaging water sales is offset by strong growth in health-oriented beverages. The revenue breakdown for H2 shows packaging water at 7.42 billion yuan (-24%), tea beverages at 8.32 billion yuan (+13%), functional beverages at 2.38 billion yuan (-3%), juice at 1.97 billion yuan (+7%), and other products at 630 million yuan (-12%) [2]. - The company is expected to recover fully in 2025, driven by a differentiated product strategy and refined channel operations, with significant earnings elasticity anticipated from a low base [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H2 2024, the company reported a revenue of 20.723 billion yuan, down 6.7% year-on-year, and a net profit of 5.884 billion yuan, also down 6.7% year-on-year. The overall performance met expectations [1]. - The gross margin for H2 was 57.3%, a decrease of 1.6 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin remained stable at 28.4% [2]. - The company’s net profit for 2025 is projected to be 14.4 billion yuan, representing a 19% increase year-on-year, with corresponding P/E ratios of 27x [3]. Market Trends - The health beverage segment continues to grow, with the company focusing on promoting sugar-free tea and health-oriented juice products, which have shown resilience against market declines [2]. - The company is expected to benefit from a stabilization in market competition and a recovery in market share due to its strategic product offerings [2]. Future Projections - The forecast for net profit from 2025 to 2027 is 14.4 billion yuan, 17.0 billion yuan, and 19.7 billion yuan, respectively, with growth rates of 19%, 18%, and 16% [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6]. Core Views - The company demonstrated steady revenue growth with a notable performance in tea beverages, despite challenges in the packaging water segment due to public sentiment [1][2]. - The company is expected to recover in the packaging water business by 2025, driven by strong brand and product influence [1]. - The beverage segment, particularly tea and juice, showed impressive growth rates, while functional drinks faced slight pressure [2]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the company reported total revenue of 428.96 billion, a year-on-year increase of 0.5%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 121.23 billion, up 0.4% [1]. - The packaging water business generated revenue of 159.5 billion, down 21.3% year-on-year, while tea and other beverages saw significant growth [2]. - The gross margin for 2024 was 58.1%, a decrease of 1.46 percentage points, influenced by promotional activities and rising raw material costs [3]. Future Projections - The company forecasts net profits to grow by 15.6%, 15.0%, and 16.0% in 2025, 2026, and 2027, reaching 140 billion, 161 billion, and 187 billion respectively [3]. - Revenue is projected to increase to 49.3 billion in 2025, with a growth rate of 15% [5][12]. Key Financial Metrics - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is projected at 1.08, with a P/E ratio of 29.40 [5][12]. - The return on equity (ROE) is expected to remain stable at around 38% for the next few years [12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a significant price increase over the next 6-12 months [3]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 42.896 billion yuan in 2024, a slight increase of 0.5% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 12.123 billion yuan, up 0.4% year-on-year. The performance aligns with expectations [1]. - The decline in H2 packaging water sales is offset by strong growth in health-oriented beverages. The company is focusing on promotional strategies for its green bottle products, which have seen a recovery in market share after initial declines [2]. - The company is expected to see net profits of 14 billion yuan, 17 billion yuan, and 19.7 billion yuan in 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting growth rates of 19%, 18%, and 16% [3]. Revenue Breakdown - In H2 2024, the revenue from various product categories was as follows: packaging water 7.42 billion yuan (down 24%), tea beverages 8.32 billion yuan (up 13%), functional beverages 2.38 billion yuan (down 3%), juice 1.97 billion yuan (up 7%), and other products 630 million yuan (down 12%) [2]. - The company’s gross margin and net margin for H2 2024 were 57.3% and 28.4%, respectively, with a slight year-on-year decline in gross margin [2]. Profitability and Cost Management - The company has improved its net profit margin through strict cost control, with sales and management expense ratios at 20.3% and 5.1%, respectively, both down 0.4 percentage points year-on-year [2]. - The report highlights that the company’s operating profit margin was 30.0% in H2 2024, down 6.1 percentage points year-on-year, while the profit margin for sugar-free tea reached a historical peak of 46.3% [2]. Future Outlook - The report expresses optimism for 2025, anticipating a recovery in market share and significant earnings elasticity due to a low base effect and a more favorable competitive environment [2].

公司研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 农夫山泉（09633.HK）2024 年报点评 推荐（维持） 走出底部，修复在途 事项： 公司发布 2024 年年报，24 年全年实现主营收入 428.96 亿元，同增 0.5%；归 母净利润 121.23 亿元，同增 0.4%。24H2 实现主营收入 207.23 亿元，同比 -6.7%；归母净利润 58.84 亿元，同比-6.7%。 评论： 当前价：36.75 港元 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：欧阳予 [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主营收入(百万) | 42,896 | 49,356 | 55,196 | 60,933 | | 同比增速(%) | 0.5% | 15.1% | 11.8% | 10.4% | | 归母净利润(百万) | 12,123 | 14,204 | 16,115 | 17,932 | | 同比增速(%) | 0.4% | 17.2% | 13.5% | 11.3% | | 每股盈利(元 ...

Core Insights - The company achieved a net profit of 12.1 billion yuan and plans to distribute a total dividend of 8.547 billion yuan for the fiscal year 2024 [1] - Despite a challenging year with a 21.3% decline in revenue from packaged drinking water, the company maintained its leading market share in China [1][2] - The company is expanding its production capacity and investing in new water sources across various regions in China [2] Financial Performance - The company reported total revenue of 42.896 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.5% [1] - The net profit for the year was 12.123 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 0.4% compared to the previous year [1] - Basic earnings per share were 1.078 yuan, with a proposed dividend of 0.76 yuan per share [1] Product Segmentation - Revenue from packaged drinking water was 15.952 billion yuan, accounting for 37.2% of total revenue [1] - Tea beverage products generated 16.745 billion yuan, representing 39% of total revenue [1] - Functional beverages contributed 4.932 billion yuan (11.5%), while juice beverages accounted for 4.085 billion yuan (9.5%) [1] Strategic Initiatives - The company reintroduced purified water products to help consumers distinguish between purified and natural water [2] - Investments include 200 million yuan in Tibet and 1 billion yuan in a new water source project in Yunnan [2] - The company is also expanding its production capacity with significant investments planned for various locations [2] Technological Advancements - The company implemented coding technology for better inventory and sales management, enhancing brand competitiveness [3] - Artificial intelligence (AI) technology is being integrated to support data-driven decision-making and improve operational efficiency [3] - The company aims for a digital transformation to optimize its supply chain and enhance customer experience [3] Future Outlook - The company expresses confidence in overcoming challenges posed by negative online sentiment and is prepared to seize future opportunities [3]

Core Viewpoint - Nongfu Spring has experienced a significant decline in its bottled water business, leading to a stagnation in overall revenue growth and a sharp drop in stock price [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In 2024, Nongfu Spring reported total revenue of 42.896 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.5%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 12.123 billion yuan, up 0.4% [1]. - The bottled water segment saw a drastic revenue decline of 21.27%, generating 15.952 billion yuan, which now accounts for only 37.2% of total revenue [2]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - Tea beverage products have emerged as the largest revenue source for Nongfu Spring, with a growth of 32.28%, increasing its revenue share to 39% [2]. - Negative public sentiment surrounding the brand, particularly due to past controversies and rumors, has significantly impacted sales, with bottled water sales experiencing a continuous decline of over 20% for four months from March to June last year [2][3]. Group 3: Strategic Responses - To counteract the negative publicity, Nongfu Spring has launched new products like green bottle purified water and increased advertising and promotional expenditures [2]. - The company has seen a rise in accounts receivable to 1.8 billion yuan and a substantial increase in inventory to 5.013 billion yuan, with inventory turnover days rising from 54.23 to 81.14 days [2]. Group 4: Competitive Landscape - Competitors such as Yibao are accelerating their IPO processes, while Wahaha is enhancing its market presence through new product placements, intensifying competition in the bottled water market [3].

农夫山泉去年营收净利增速急降 钟睒睒：品牌形象遭受历史性考验，饮 用水收益下滑两成 农夫山泉2024年营收和净利润增速大幅放缓。 3月25日，农夫山泉股份有限公司（农夫山泉，9633.HK）发布截至2024年12月31日止年度的全年业绩公告，公告显示，农夫山泉去年营收 428.96亿元，同比增长0.5%；公司净利润为121.23亿元，同比增加0.4%；每股基本盈利为1.078元；同比增长0.4%；建议派发期末股息每股普通股 0.76元，共计派发股息约85.47亿元。 | | | 2024年 | 2023年 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 附註 | 人民幣千元 | 人民幣千元 | | 收益 | 3 | 42,895,992 | 42,667,221 | | 銷售成本 | | (17,980,277) | (17,260,392) | | 毛利 | | 24,915,715 | 25,406,829 | | 其他收入及收益 | 4 | 2,128,940 | 1,841,454 | | 銷售 及分銷 開 支 | | (9,173,297) | (9,283,999) | | 行政開 ...

Core Insights - Nongfu Spring reported a total revenue of 42.9 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 0.5%, with a net profit of 12.123 billion yuan, also up by 0.4% [1] - The company's first major revenue source shifted from water products to ready-to-drink tea products, which generated 16.745 billion yuan in revenue, accounting for 39% of total revenue, while water products generated 15.952 billion yuan, making up 37.2% [1][2] - Chairman Zhong Shanshan highlighted that the company faced organized and prolonged attacks on its brand image in 2024, which tested its reputation but ultimately reaffirmed the quality of its water sources and products [1] Revenue Structure - In 2023, water products were the largest revenue source at 20.262 billion yuan, but in 2024, ready-to-drink tea products surpassed this with 16.745 billion yuan [1] - The ready-to-drink tea segment includes brands like Dongfang Shuye and Chawu, which have seen significant growth due to rising health-conscious consumer demand [2] - The ready-to-drink tea market is experiencing strong growth, with Dongfang Shuye's sales increasing by over 90% year-on-year in the first half of 2024 [2] Strategic Developments - Nongfu Spring is investing in water source development, with the addition of a new water source in Huangshan and six other projects being advanced nationwide in 2024 [2] - The company aims to become a world-class international enterprise, exploring overseas market opportunities and leveraging China's biodiversity to introduce more health products globally [2]

Core Viewpoint - The bottled water market in China is experiencing intense competition, with major players like Nongfu Spring, Wahaha, and China Resources Beverage adjusting their strategies to capture market share after Nongfu Spring's re-entry into the pure water segment [4][5][9]. Group 1: Company Performance - Nongfu Spring reported a revenue of approximately 428.96 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 0.5%, and a net profit of about 121.23 billion yuan, up 0.4% [5]. - China Resources Beverage achieved a revenue of approximately 135.21 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.05%, with a net profit of 16.37 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 23.12% [5]. - Wahaha's overall performance returned to 700 billion yuan, marking an increase of nearly 200 billion yuan from the previous year, driven primarily by its bottled water and AD calcium milk businesses [4][5]. Group 2: Market Trends - The retail market for bottled drinking water in China grew by 2.5% year-on-year in 2024, with pure water accounting for 56.1% of the market [6]. - The natural mineral water market is expected to surpass 21.3 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth rate of 17%, significantly outpacing the overall industry growth [6]. Group 3: Competitive Strategies - Nongfu Spring's re-entry into the pure water market has led to a price war, prompting competitors like Wahaha and China Resources Beverage to adjust their strategies [8][9]. - Nongfu Spring has launched a low-priced pure water product, with retail prices as low as 1 yuan per bottle, aiming to penetrate lower-tier markets [7][8]. - The competition has intensified, leading to increased product diversity and innovation, while also pushing smaller companies out of the market, thereby increasing industry concentration [8][11]. Group 4: Brand Positioning and Marketing - Nongfu Spring emphasizes its "high-quality natural water source" in its marketing, despite the lack of specific requirements for pure water [7]. - The company has upgraded its packaging to highlight its twelve major water sources, reinforcing its brand image of "natural and healthy" [9][10]. - China Resources Beverage is expanding its product range and has launched new brands to enhance its market presence following its listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [10].

受舆论影响，农夫山泉2024年净利增速创上市以来 最低，包装水收入骤降21.3% | 财报见闻 收入表现：2024年总收入达428.96亿元，同比增长0.5%； 盈利能力：归属母公司的净利润同比增长0.4%至121.23亿元，低于分析师预期的125亿元；毛利率为 58.1%，同比下降1.4个百分点。 核心业务表现：包装饮用水产品收入下降21.3%至159.52亿元，受网络舆论负面影响明显；茶饮料产品 收入大幅增长32.3%至167.45亿元，首次超过包装饮用水成为最大业务板块。 产品创新：重新推出纯净水产品，推出食用冰新品类，升级380ml及550ml天然水包装；茶饮料方面持 续开发季节限定产品，扩充产品矩阵。 股东回报：计划派发期末股息每股0.76元，共计约85.47亿元。 包装水收入大幅下滑，茶饮崛起成为第一大业务板块 2024年对农夫山泉是充满挑战的一年，网络舆情风波给其品牌形象和包装饮用水业务带来明显冲击，导 致其全年净利增速创下2020年上市以来最低纪录。尽管如此，公司其他业务线仍实现了强劲增长，其中 茶饮料收入大增32%，首次超过包装饮用水成为最大业务板块。 25日周二，农夫山泉公布2024年业绩 ...