Core Viewpoint - The company faced significant challenges in 2024 due to a public relations crisis, yet demonstrated resilience through its long-term brand strength and evolving product offerings, particularly in the tea beverage segment. Group 1: Financial Performance - For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2024, the company reported revenue of 42.896 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.5% [1] - Net profit reached 12.123 billion yuan, reflecting a 0.4% increase compared to the previous year [1] - The net profit margin improved from 29.1% to 36.8%, indicating enhanced profitability despite revenue growth slowing [1] Group 2: Impact of Public Relations Crisis - The company experienced its largest public relations crisis in 2024, primarily due to organized online attacks that began in late February [2] - The negative publicity, fueled by various unfounded rumors, significantly impacted the sales of its bottled water products, which saw a 21.3% decline to 15.952 billion yuan [1][2] - Despite the crisis, the company maintained its market leadership in bottled water, with no regulatory investigations into product quality issues reported [3] Group 3: Product and Market Developments - The tea beverage segment emerged as the largest revenue contributor in 2024, generating 16.745 billion yuan, accounting for 39% of total revenue [4] - The company’s tea brand, Dongfang Shuye, achieved a market share exceeding 70% in the sugar-free tea market, showcasing strong growth potential [5] - The company is expanding its agricultural initiatives, including investments in tea processing facilities in Yunnan, which have significantly increased production capacity and product quality [5][6] Group 4: Strategic Investments and Future Outlook - The company has made substantial investments in new water sources, including projects in Anhui and other regions, marking its largest investment scale to date [6] - The dual-engine strategy of "water + tea" is expected to enhance the company's resilience and competitive edge in the market [6] - The company is exploring international markets, with the global bottled water market projected to grow from approximately $280 billion in 2022 to $356.63 billion by 2027, indicating potential for future expansion [6][7]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for the stock price over the next six months [5]. Core Views - The company experienced a slight revenue growth of 0.5% year-on-year in 2024, with total revenue reaching 428.96 billion yuan and a net profit of 121.23 billion yuan, also up by 0.4% [1]. - The packaging water business faced a significant decline in the second half of 2024, with revenue dropping by 24.4% year-on-year, attributed to ongoing public relations issues and increased promotional spending [2]. - Despite the challenges, the company is expected to see a recovery in the packaging water sector in 2025, driven by a decrease in price competition and improved profitability [3]. Financial Summary - In 2024, the company's gross margin decreased by 1.5 percentage points to 58.1%, primarily due to increased promotional activities and rising raw material costs [3]. - The company’s net profit margin remained stable at 28.3% in 2024, with a slight reduction in sales and administrative expense ratios [3]. - Forecasted earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 are projected to be 1.25, 1.42, and 1.59 yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 25x, 22x, and 20x [3]. Market Data - The target price for the stock is set at 40.72 HKD, with the current closing price at 33.70 HKD, indicating potential upside [5]. - The company has a total market capitalization of approximately 379 billion HKD [5].

公 司 研 究 / 公 司 点 评 食品饮料 2025 年 03 月 27 日 农夫山泉 (09633) 上 市 公 司 ——艰难时点已过 25 年关注瓶装水业务复苏 报告原因：有业绩公布需要点评 | 投资要点： | | --- | 财务数据及盈利预测 | | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入（百万元） | 42,667 | 42,896 | 49,355 | 55,402 | 61,534 | | 同比增长率（%） | 28 | 1 | 15 | 12 | 11 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 12,079 | 12,123 | 13,990 | 15,800 | 17,772 | | 同比增长率（%） | 42 | 0 | 15 | 13 | 12 | | 每股收益（元/股） | 1.07 | 1.08 | 1.24 | 1.40 | 1.58 | | 净资产收益率（%） | 42.28 | 37.55 | 37.08 | 36.13 | 35.23 | | 市盈率 | 2 ...

Group 1: REITs and Data Centers - The first data center REIT, Southern Runze Technology Data Center REIT, has been accepted for review on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, attracting significant investor attention due to its business model and asset characteristics [4]. Group 2: Defense and AI - Kosi Technology (688788.SH) is positioned as a leader in AI and unmanned equipment for military applications, with a strong focus on AI command and control systems, having accumulated over 20 years of core data and experience [5][6]. - The company has invested over 1 billion yuan in R&D, with a team of over 400 people dedicated to AI and military applications, indicating significant growth potential in both military and civilian sectors [6]. Group 3: Healthcare - Meinian Health (002044.SZ) is leveraging AI to enhance efficiency and reduce costs in the health checkup industry, with over 600 branches and a leading position in the number of annual health checkups [7][8]. - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 10.826 billion yuan, 12.099 billion yuan, and 13.098 billion yuan from 2024 to 2026, with corresponding net profits of 326 million yuan, 617 million yuan, and 813 million yuan [8]. Group 4: Banking - Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank (601077.SH) is expected to benefit from the Chengdu-Chongqing economic circle, with projected net profit growth rates of 5.72%, 5.99%, and 6.53% from 2025 to 2027 [9]. - China Merchants Bank (600036.SH) has shown resilience with a return to profit growth in 2024, maintaining a leading position in the industry [10]. Group 5: Carbon Market and Construction - The national carbon market is expanding, with significant implications for the steel, cement, and aluminum industries, as companies adapt to new carbon pricing mechanisms [11]. - Key players in these sectors, such as Baosteel and China Aluminum, are expected to benefit from the transition to greener production methods [11]. Group 6: Coal Industry - China Shenhua Energy (H) has seen an increase in long-term investment interest, with a recent stake acquisition by Swiss Life Insurance, reflecting a reevaluation of the coal sector's value [14][15]. - The company has a low debt ratio of 23.4% and plans to distribute 44.9 billion yuan in cash dividends in 2024, indicating strong cash flow and dividend capacity [15][16]. Group 7: Chemicals and Materials - Sanwei Chemical (002469.SZ) reported a significant acceleration in Q4 performance, with a high dividend payout ratio of 99%, making it an attractive investment [21]. - China Jushi (600176.SH) achieved a revenue of 15.856 billion yuan in 2024, with a strong performance in Q4, indicating resilience in the fiberglass market [22][23]. Group 8: Consumer Goods - Nongfu Spring (09633.HK) reported stable growth with a revenue of 42.896 billion yuan in 2024, driven by strong brand value and product innovation [30]. - The company is expected to see net profits grow by 15.6%, 15.0%, and 16.0% from 2025 to 2027, maintaining its market leadership [30]. Group 9: Textile and Apparel - Shenzhou International (02313.HK) reported a revenue of 28.66 billion yuan in 2024, with a net profit increase of 37%, indicating strong demand and operational efficiency [31].

Core Viewpoint - The performance of Nongfu Spring in 2024 was significantly supported by its tea beverage brand, Dongfang Shuye, amidst challenges faced in the packaged drinking water segment, which saw a decline in revenue and profitability [1][3][4]. Group 1: Financial Performance - Nongfu Spring's total revenue for 2024 was 429 billion RMB, a slight increase of 0.5% year-on-year, while net profit rose by only 0.4% to 121.2 billion RMB [1][2]. - In the first half of 2024, revenue and net profit grew by 8% to 221.7 billion RMB and 62.4 billion RMB, respectively, but the second half saw declines to 207.3 billion RMB and 58.8 billion RMB [1]. - The packaged drinking water segment experienced a significant revenue drop of 21.3% to 160 billion RMB, reducing its revenue share from 47.5% in 2023 to 37.2% in 2024 [1][2]. Group 2: Tea Beverage Segment - Dongfang Shuye's revenue grew by 32.3% to 167.5 billion RMB in 2024, surpassing the packaged drinking water segment for the first time, accounting for 39% of the company's total revenue [3][4]. - The tea beverage segment, including Dongfang Shuye and Tea Pi, saw annual revenue growth rates exceeding 50% from 2021 to 2023, with a total revenue of 167.5 billion RMB in 2024, marking a 5.4 times increase since 2020 [4][9]. Group 3: Market Position and Strategy - Dongfang Shuye has established a strong market presence, holding over 60% market share in the no-sugar tea segment, despite increasing competition [9]. - The brand's extensive distribution network, covering 2.43 million retail outlets, has been crucial in maintaining visibility and accessibility, particularly in lower-tier cities [8][9]. - Product innovation, such as seasonal offerings and larger packaging, has contributed to Dongfang Shuye's appeal among health-conscious consumers [6][8]. Group 4: Challenges and Future Outlook - The packaged drinking water segment faced a 20% revenue decline in 2024, yet Nongfu Spring maintained its leading market share [11][17]. - The company is exploring diversification into agricultural partnerships to bolster its juice business, with a 15.6% revenue increase in juice beverages to 41 billion RMB in 2024 [16][17]. - The impact of negative public sentiment on Nongfu Spring's overall performance may diminish over time, potentially improving future sales [16][17].

Core Viewpoint - Nongfu Spring's stock price experienced a significant drop, attributed to disappointing financial results and increased competition in the bottled water market [1][3]. Financial Performance - For the fiscal year 2024, Nongfu Spring reported a revenue of 428.96 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.5%, and a net profit of 121.23 billion yuan, up 0.4% [4][5]. - This marks the first time since 2021 that the company's revenue and net profit growth has slowed to less than 1% [4][6]. Product Segment Analysis - The revenue from the bottled water segment declined by 21.3%, dropping its contribution to total revenue from 47.5% in 2023 to 37.2% in 2024 [5][6]. - Tea beverages have overtaken bottled water to become the largest business segment, contributing 39% to total revenue [5][6]. Market Dynamics - The introduction of the new green bottle pure water product at a promotional price has intensified competition, leading to a price war in the bottled water market [10][11]. - Competitors like Yibao and Wahaha have also reduced their prices in response to Nongfu Spring's aggressive pricing strategy [10][11]. Gross Margin and Cost Structure - Nongfu Spring's gross profit for 2024 was 249.16 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.9% from 2023, with the gross margin dropping from 59.5% to 58.1% [9][10]. - The decline in gross margin is attributed to promotional activities for the new pure water product, increased fixed costs due to lower sales volume, and rising juice raw material prices [9][10].

Core Viewpoint - Nongfu Spring has demonstrated resilience in a challenging year, achieving a revenue of 42.896 billion yuan and maintaining its position as the leading brand in China's packaged water market [1][2] Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue of 42.896 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.5%, and a net profit of 12.123 billion yuan, up 0.4% [1] - Basic earnings per share reached 1.078 yuan, reflecting a 0.4% increase year-on-year [1] - Gross profit remained high at 24.915 billion yuan, with a slight year-on-year decrease of 1.93%, resulting in a gross margin of 58.1% [2] Revenue Composition - Revenue from tea beverages surged to 16.745 billion yuan, marking a significant year-on-year increase of 32.3%, and became the largest revenue source for the company, surpassing packaged drinking water for the first time [1] - Packaged drinking water revenue was 15.952 billion yuan, experiencing a year-on-year decline of 21.3% due to negative impacts from brand attacks [1][4] Product Performance - The tea beverage segment, particularly products like Dongfang Shuye and Tea π, showed strong sales performance, contributing significantly to overall revenue growth [3][5] - Functional beverages generated revenue of 4.932 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.6%, while juice beverages reached 4.085 billion yuan, up 15.6% [5] Strategic Investments - The company has intensified investments in water source locations, with over 10 billion yuan allocated to projects across six key water source areas [6] - Nongfu Spring is also focusing on agricultural partnerships to enhance the quality of raw materials for its juice products [6] Future Outlook - The company anticipates stable growth in the consumer market driven by policies encouraging consumption, presenting new opportunities for development [6] - Plans to explore overseas market opportunities are also in place to expand the company's growth potential [7]

Core Viewpoint - Nongfu Spring, known as the "king of bottled water," has faced significant challenges in the past year, with a notable decline in revenue from its core bottled water business, leading to a sharp drop in stock price by 8% following the release of its 2024 annual performance report [3][4]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported total revenue of 42.896 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of only 0.5%, and net profit of 12.123 billion yuan, also up by 0.4%, marking a stark contrast to the double-digit growth seen from 2021 to 2023 [4][6]. - The revenue from the bottled water segment fell by 21.3% to 15.952 billion yuan, while the tea beverage segment saw a significant increase of 32.3%, reaching 16.745 billion yuan, with tea beverages now accounting for 39.0% of total revenue, surpassing bottled water's 37.2% [3][6][14]. Market Dynamics - The decline in bottled water sales is attributed to negative public sentiment and online attacks that began in late February 2024, which have adversely affected the brand and sales [5][6]. - The market share of bottled water has been decreasing, with its contribution to total revenue dropping from 57.4% in 2021 to 37.2% in 2024 [7][9]. - In response to the declining market share, Nongfu Spring has reintroduced its pure water plan and initiated a price war in the bottled water market, with promotional pricing leading to significant price reductions [7][8]. Competitive Landscape - The bottled water market remains highly competitive, with other players like China Resources Beverage and Master Kong also experiencing minimal growth or declines in their bottled water revenues [8][9]. - Nongfu Spring's tea beverage segment is growing, but competition in the unsweetened tea market is intensifying, with various established and new brands entering the space [10][17].

[Table_MainInfo] 公司研究/食品 证券研究报告 农夫山泉（9633.HK）年度报告 2025 年 03 月 26 日 [Table_InvestInfo] 投资评级 优于大市 维持 股票数据 | 3[Table_StockInfo 月 26 日收盘价（HKD] ） | 33.70 | | --- | --- | | 52 周股价波动（HKD） | 32.00-39.50 | | 总股本（亿股） | 112.46 | 总市值/流通市值（亿 HKD） 《继续看好茶饮料业务高增长及未来盈利 能 力持续向上》2024.01.18 市场表现 [Table_QuoteInfo] 恒生指数对比 1M 2M 3M 绝对涨幅（%） 9.05 2.65 6.52 相对涨幅（%） 9.62 -13.45 -11.85 资料来源：海通证券研究所 逆境中收入平稳，盈利维持高水平，期待 25 年包装水复苏 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 主要财务数据及预测 相关研究 [Table_ReportInfo] 《农夫山泉（9633）24 年半年报点评：短期 网络事件致包装水业务承压，茶饮料继续高增 驱动整体业绩稳健 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6]. Core Views - The company demonstrated steady revenue growth with a total revenue of 42.896 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 0.5%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 12.123 billion yuan, also up by 0.4% year-on-year. However, the second half of 2024 saw a decline in revenue and net profit, both down by 6.7% [1][3]. - The packaging water segment faced challenges due to public opinion but is expected to recover in 2025, supported by new product launches and packaging upgrades [1]. - The beverage segment, particularly tea drinks, showed strong performance with a revenue increase of 32.3% year-on-year, contributing significantly to overall growth [2]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue and Profit**: In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 42.896 billion yuan and a net profit of 12.123 billion yuan. Projections for 2025-2027 indicate a net profit growth of 15.6%, 15.0%, and 16.0%, reaching 14 billion yuan, 16.1 billion yuan, and 18.7 billion yuan respectively [5][3]. - **Gross Margin**: The gross margin for 2024 was reported at 58.1%, a decrease of 1.46 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to promotional activities for new products and rising raw material costs [3]. - **Expense Ratios**: The company managed to reduce its sales, management, and financial expense ratios, leading to a net profit margin of 28.3% [3]. Product Segment Performance - **Packaging Water**: Revenue from packaging water was 15.95 billion yuan in 2024, down 21.3% year-on-year, but recovery is anticipated in 2025 due to strategic product launches [1]. - **Beverage Products**: The tea and juice segments performed well, with revenues of 16.74 billion yuan and 4.08 billion yuan respectively, marking increases of 32.3% and 15.6% year-on-year [2]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to maintain its leading position in the packaging water industry and continue its innovative product development strategy, which is likely to drive future growth [3].