Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, indicating a potential upside of over 15% relative to the benchmark index [4][6]. Core Insights - The company has demonstrated strong growth in product sales, achieving a total revenue of 2.124 billion RMB in 2024, with a year-on-year decline of 53.08%. However, commercial sales revenue increased by 24.88% to 2.002 billion RMB, and gross profit reached 1.835 billion RMB, reflecting a 16.53% increase in commercial sales gross profit [1][4]. - The company is building a core competitive advantage in tumor immunotherapy through its two main bispecific antibodies, Cardunilumab and Ivorisumab, which are undergoing extensive clinical exploration across over 40 indications. Notably, Ivorisumab has shown significant efficacy in treating advanced non-small cell lung cancer [2][4]. - The company is investing efficiently in research and development, with approximately 1.2 billion RMB allocated in 2024. This has resulted in the approval of three new drugs and the advancement of multiple clinical trials, including the first bispecific ADC drug entering clinical trials [3][4]. - The commercialization process is expected to accelerate, with key products entering the national medical insurance directory by the end of 2024, enhancing hospital access and coverage [3][4]. Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 3.82 billion RMB, 6.52 billion RMB, and 8.86 billion RMB from 2025 to 2027, with corresponding net profits of 107 million RMB, 1.064 billion RMB, and 2.083 billion RMB [4][5]. - The expected growth rates for revenue are 79.9% in 2025, 70.6% in 2026, and 35.9% in 2027, while net profit is anticipated to grow by 120.8% in 2025 and 896.9% in 2026 [5][4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, indicating an expected stock price increase of over 15% relative to the benchmark index [4][6]. Core Insights - The company achieved a total revenue of 2.124 billion RMB in 2024, a decrease of 53.08% year-on-year, while commercial sales revenue grew by 24.88% to 2.002 billion RMB [1][4]. - The company is building a core competitive advantage in tumor immunotherapy through its two main bispecific antibodies, Cardunilumab and Ivorisumab, with over 40 clinical therapy explorations [2][4]. - The company invested approximately 1.2 billion RMB in R&D in 2024, achieving significant milestones including three new drug approvals and multiple ongoing clinical studies [3][4]. Financial Performance - The company reported a gross profit of 1.835 billion RMB in 2024, with a gross margin of 86.39% [5][8]. - The projected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 3.820 billion RMB, 6.519 billion RMB, and 8.860 billion RMB, respectively, with corresponding net profits expected to be 107 million RMB, 1.064 billion RMB, and 2.083 billion RMB [4][5]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to improve from -0.57 RMB in 2024 to 2.32 RMB by 2027 [5][8]. Product Development and Commercialization - The company is advancing its commercialization process, with key products expected to be included in the national medical insurance directory by the end of 2024 [3][4]. - The company has initiated multiple clinical studies for its bispecific antibodies, establishing a strong pipeline for future growth [2][3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for Akeso, indicating a potential return of over 15% over the next 12 months [15]. Core Insights - Akeso's FY24 results showed strong cost controls despite a revenue shortfall, with total revenue of RMB2.1 billion, including RMB2.0 billion from product sales, representing a 25% YoY increase [8]. - The company is expected to see product sales surge by 60% YoY to RMB3.3 billion in FY25, driven by the inclusion of AK104 and AK112 in the National Reimbursement Drug List (NRDL) [8]. - AK112 is positioned as a next-generation immuno-oncology (IO) therapy, with pivotal clinical data demonstrating a meaningful progression-free survival (PFS) benefit in a Phase 3 trial against Keytruda for first-line PD-L1-positive non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) [8]. - The report highlights ongoing clinical trials for AK112 in various cancer types, including triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC) and pancreatic cancer, indicating a broad first-line strategy [8]. - The target price for Akeso has been raised from HK$58.97 to HK$102.61, reflecting increased sales projections for AK112 [8]. Financial Summary - For FY23A, Akeso reported revenue of RMB4,526 million, with a YoY growth of 440.3%, followed by a projected revenue of RMB2,124 million for FY24A, reflecting a decline of 53.1% [2]. - The net profit for FY23A was RMB2,028.3 million, with a projected net loss of RMB501 million for FY24A [2]. - R&D expenses are projected to be RMB1,306 million for FY25E, increasing to RMB1,937 million by FY27E [2]. - The company held a cash balance of RMB7.3 billion at the end of FY24, sufficient to support ongoing R&D and future commercial expansion [8]. Share Performance - Akeso's current market capitalization is HK$77,191.5 million, with a current price of HK$86.00 and a target price indicating a 19.3% upside [3]. - The stock has shown strong performance, with a 1-month absolute return of 17.9% and a 3-month return of 41.7% [5]. Valuation - The DCF valuation estimates the equity value at RMB 85,652 million, translating to a DCF per share of RMB 95.43 or HK$ 102.61 [9]. - The report includes a sensitivity analysis indicating how changes in the weighted average cost of capital (WACC) and terminal growth rate affect the target price [10].

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market experienced significant net inflows from northbound trading, indicating strong investor interest and confidence in certain stocks, particularly in the context of a recovering Chinese economy and favorable liquidity conditions [1][4]. Group 1: Northbound Trading Activity - Northbound trading recorded a net buy of HKD 198.64 billion, with HKD 119.05 billion from the Shanghai Stock Connect and HKD 79.58 billion from the Shenzhen Stock Connect [1]. - The most bought stocks included the Tracker Fund of Hong Kong (02800), Hang Seng China Enterprises (02828), and Alibaba Group (09988) [1][4]. - The most sold stocks were Xiaomi Group (01810) and Lao Pu Gold (06181), with Xiaomi facing a net sell of HKD 6.12 billion [1][7]. Group 2: Stock Performance and News - Xiaomi Group (01810) had a net outflow of HKD 6.12 billion, attributed to concerns over a reported incident involving one of its vehicles [7]. - Alibaba Group (09988) saw a net inflow of HKD 8.19 billion, with news of an upcoming product launch in 2025 expected to enhance its market position [5]. - Xpeng Motors (09868) reported a significant increase in vehicle deliveries, with a total of 33,205 units delivered in March, marking a 268% year-on-year growth [5]. - Pop Mart (09992) received a net inflow of HKD 3.9 billion, with a reported revenue growth of 106.9% year-on-year, indicating strong performance in both domestic and overseas markets [6]. Group 3: Analyst Insights - According to a report from Founder Securities, the current rally in the Hong Kong stock market is supported by a favorable economic outlook, with overall valuations near historical averages [4]. - Morgan Stanley highlighted that Innovent Biologics (01801) is expected to achieve profitability by 2025, which could boost market confidence [6].

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market showed positive movement in the morning, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 0.38% to close at 23,206.84 points, with a total turnover of 250.23 billion HKD [1] - Global uncertainties are increasing, leading to a cautious approach in the Hong Kong market, with upcoming data on consumption and real estate being key focus areas [1] Blue-Chip Stocks Performance - Xiaomi Group-W (01810) experienced a significant drop of 5.49%, closing at 46.5 HKD, impacting the Hang Seng Index negatively by 78.78 points [2] - Other blue-chip stocks showed mixed results, with CSPC Pharmaceutical Group (01093) rising by 10.93% and contributing 7.33 points to the index, while China Overseas Development (00688) fell by 4.46% [2] Sector Performance Pharmaceutical Sector - The pharmaceutical sector saw strong performance, with stocks like Yiming Pharmaceutical-B (01541) rising by 19.86% and Kangfang Biotech (09926) increasing by 12.86% [3] - The market anticipates policy optimizations in drug procurement, which is expected to benefit domestic pharmaceutical innovation [3] Oil Sector - Oil stocks generally rose, with CNOOC (00883) increasing by 2.7% and PetroChina (00857) up by 2.07% [4] - Concerns over geopolitical tensions have led to a rise in international oil prices, with projections for Brent crude oil prices to reach 70-75 USD per barrel by 2025 [4] Real Estate Sector - The real estate sector showed mixed results, with companies like Midea Real Estate (03990) rising by 12.04%, while China Overseas Development (00688) fell by 4.46% [6] - Data indicates a decline in sales for major real estate firms, with a 9.8% year-on-year drop in sales for the first quarter [6] Company Earnings Reports - Midea Real Estate reported a revenue of 3.73 billion HKD, a 33% increase, and a core net profit of 500 million HKD, up 25% [7] - China Overseas Development's revenue decreased by 8.58% to 185.15 billion HKD, with a profit drop of 38.95% [7] Notable Stock Movements - Lao Pu Gold (06181) reached a new high, closing up 19.07% at 868 HKD, with a significant increase in sales and net profit [8] - Haijia Medical (06078) rose by 9.97% after its founder increased shareholding, indicating confidence in the company's future [9] - XPeng Motors-W (09868) reported a 268% year-on-year increase in vehicle deliveries, reaching 33,205 units in March 2025 [10] - Pop Mart (09992) saw a 4.98% increase, with a reported revenue growth of 106.9% and a target to exceed 20 billion RMB in revenue this year [11]

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Biotechnology Index (HSHKBIO) has seen a strong increase of 3.70% as of April 1, 2025, with notable gains from constituent stocks such as Kangfang Biotech (09926) up 8.14%, and others like Hong Kong Medicine (00013) and Rongchang Biotech (09995) also showing significant increases [1] - The Hang Seng Biotechnology ETF (513280) rose by 4.18%, reaching a latest price of 0.9 HKD, with a trading volume of 37.5587 million HKD and a turnover rate of 13.91%, indicating active market participation [1] - The latest scale of the Hang Seng Biotechnology ETF reached 262 million HKD, marking a new high for the year, with the number of shares also hitting a recent high of 305 million [1] Group 2 - Kangfang Biotech reported a sales revenue exceeding 2 billion HKD for 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 25%, driven by strong performance in new drug sales [2] - Domestic innovative drugs are entering a harvest period, with 39 new drugs approved in China in 2024, accounting for nearly 40% of global approvals, and 24% of first-in-class drugs in development being from Chinese companies [2] - The overall performance of leading innovative pharmaceutical companies is improving, with many approaching profitability due to mature R&D and sales systems [2] Group 3 - The 2024 Government Work Report indicates an optimization of drug procurement policies, shifting from a price-only focus to a balance of quality and cost, which is expected to benefit leading pharmaceutical companies [3] - The upcoming 11th batch of drug procurement in 2025 is anticipated to enhance quality assessment and regulatory measures, potentially leading to a consolidation of market share among compliant leading pharmacies [3] - The number of retail pharmacies closing has increased to 13,700 by Q4 2024, suggesting a gradual improvement in the competitive landscape for leading pharmacies [3] Group 4 - The Hang Seng Biotechnology ETF (513280) is noted for having the lowest fee rate in the Hong Kong innovative drug market, with a management fee of only 0.15% per year, significantly lower than similar products [4] - As of December 2024, the ETF's index composition includes 66.4% innovative drugs, 15.4% CXO, and over 9% in pharmaceutical distribution and medical devices, indicating a balanced investment strategy [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Hang Seng Healthcare Index (HSHCI) has shown strong performance, with significant increases in constituent stocks and the Hang Seng Healthcare ETF, indicating positive market sentiment in the healthcare sector [1][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of April 1, 2025, the HSHCI rose by 2.09%, with notable gains in stocks such as Genscript Biotech (8.36%) and Haijia Medical (7.74%) [1]. - The Hang Seng Healthcare ETF (513060) opened high and increased by 2.53%, with a latest price of 0.49 HKD and a trading volume of 1.28 billion HKD, achieving a turnover rate of 0.97% [1]. Group 2: ETF Growth and Performance Metrics - The Hang Seng Healthcare ETF has seen a significant growth of 2.648 billion HKD in size over the past year, ranking in the top third among comparable funds [4]. - The ETF's financing buy-in amount reached 322 million HKD, with a financing balance of 545 million HKD [4]. - Since its inception, the ETF recorded a highest monthly return of 28.34% and an average monthly return of 7.01% [4]. - The ETF's Sharpe ratio for the past year is 1.40, indicating strong risk-adjusted returns [4]. Group 3: Valuation and Industry Outlook - The latest price-to-earnings ratio (PE-TTM) for the HSHCI is 25.11, placing it in the 2.17% percentile over the past year, suggesting it is undervalued compared to historical levels [5]. - The National Medical Products Administration reported that 48 innovative drugs were approved in 2024, covering various therapeutic areas, indicating a robust pipeline for the pharmaceutical industry [5]. - Recent policies are shifting from cost control to encouraging innovation, with a focus on leading companies with strong international capabilities [5]. Group 4: Index Composition - As of March 31, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the HSHCI include WuXi Biologics, BeiGene, and Innovent Biologics, collectively accounting for 56.21% of the index [6].

Core Viewpoint - The company is currently in a critical year for its dual antibody drugs, with significant sales potential expected in the future, but it is not appropriate to provide specific revenue guidance at this time [1][2][3]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported revenues of 2.124 billion yuan, a decrease of 53.08% year-on-year, with a gross profit of 1.835 billion yuan, down 58.23%, and a net loss of 501 million yuan [1]. - The decline in revenue is primarily attributed to a significant drop in commercialization revenue, which was 122 million yuan compared to 2.923 billion yuan in 2023 [1]. Product Development and Market Potential - The company’s two key products, Cadonilimab and Ivorisumab, are expected to generate substantial sales and profit returns over the next decade, with plans to cover 2,000 hospitals this year [2]. - 2025 marks the first year these products will be included in the national medical insurance directory, with specific indications for reimbursement [2]. - The company has achieved an 80% hospital access rate for its core products, indicating strong market acceptance [2][3]. Clinical Research and International Expansion - Ivorisumab has shown promising results in clinical trials, outperforming Merck's Keytruda, which is the best-selling cancer drug globally [4]. - Goldman Sachs predicts that Ivorisumab could reshape the immune checkpoint cancer drug market, with peak sales estimates reaching 53 billion dollars by 2041 [5]. - The company is actively pursuing international development for Ivorisumab, with ongoing clinical trials and collaborations with major pharmaceutical companies like Pfizer [6]. Clinical Efficiency and Future Outlook - The company has seen a consistent increase in clinical research activities since 2018, currently having six products on the market, two awaiting approval, and two in Phase III trials [7]. - The management expresses confidence in the future performance of its products, emphasizing the importance of entering the medical insurance directory for market expansion [3].

Core Viewpoint - On March 31, 2025, Xiaomi Group-W (01810), Tencent Holdings (00700), and SMIC (00981) were the top three companies by trading volume in the southbound trading of the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect, with trading amounts of 6.14 billion, 4.18 billion, and 4.06 billion respectively [1][2] Group 1: Southbound Trading Performance - In the southbound trading of the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect, the top three companies by trading volume were Xiaomi Group-W (01810) with 6.14 billion, Tencent Holdings (00700) with 4.18 billion, and SMIC (00981) with 4.06 billion [1][2] - In the southbound trading of the Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect, the top three companies were Xiaomi Group-W (01810) with 3.89 billion, Alibaba-W (09988) with 2.67 billion, and Tencent Holdings (00700) with 2.48 billion [1][2] Group 2: Net Inflow and Outflow - In the southbound trading of the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect, Xiaomi Group-W (01810) had a net inflow of 132 million, Tencent Holdings (00700) had a net inflow of 371 million, and SMIC (00981) had a net inflow of 40.28 million [2] - In the southbound trading of the Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect, Xiaomi Group-W (01810) had a net inflow of 209 million, while Alibaba-W (09988) and Tencent Holdings (00700) experienced net outflows of 585 million and 253 million respectively [2]

Core Viewpoint - 康方生物's innovative drug, Ivoris monoclonal antibody, is set to release overseas Phase III clinical data mid-year, which could lead to FDA submission and increased international market revenue [1][2] Financial Performance - 康方生物 reported over 2 billion yuan in new drug sales for 2024, marking a 25% year-on-year increase, a record high [2] - Despite the sales growth, the company is projected to incur a loss of 500 million yuan in 2024 as its core drugs, Cardunil and Ivoris, will only be included in the national medical insurance directory by the end of 2024 [2] Drug Development and Market Potential - Ivoris monoclonal antibody has shown significant potential in treating various cancers, including lung cancer, and outperformed Merck's Keytruda in a head-to-head trial [2] - The partnership with Summit Therapeutics for Ivoris has resulted in a $500 million upfront payment, with a total deal value of up to $5 billion [2] - Goldman Sachs predicts that Ivoris could reshape the $90 billion immuno-oncology drug market, with peak sales projected to reach approximately $53 billion by 2041 [2]