文/定龙骑牛 徒步滚雪球 编审/王小鱼 （3）中国资产最佳对冲：A股更多反映"全球制造业周期"和"国内财政杠杆"，而纳指反映"全球科技创新周期"。两者驱动力来源完全不同。在配置模型 中，两者的相关性极低，是真正的有效多样化。 1.2 走势与展望： 当前美股市场机会与风险并存，整体风险较前期有所上升，但核心投资逻辑尚未被破坏。 以后美股相关的讨论，或加急的更新，都用这个账号发布！ 为方便复盘及大家伙儿分散投资风险，我会定期跟踪美股科技的估值情况。如无特别说明，本文使用PE-TTM（滚动市盈率）数据均来自iFind。 一、纳指100 1.1 配置必要性： 结合第一性原理看清资产收益的本质。纳指100的配置价值在于三个底层驱动力： （1）全要素生产率的收割机：经济增长的本质是劳动力、资本和生产率的提升。纳指100代表了当前人类社会全要素生产率（TFP）提升的最高水平。投 资纳指100，本质上是在做多"技术取代人力"和"算法驱动增长"的必然趋势。 （2）全球资本的"高质量回笼"：在全球不确定性增加的背景下，资金倾向于流向拥有最强自由现金流的企业。纳指100成分股多为垄断型科技巨头，它们 不仅赚钱多，还通过巨额股份回购 ...

Group 1 - Tencent, Alibaba, and Baidu are engaged in a "red envelope war," indicating a competitive landscape in the AI application sector, particularly in digital marketing [1] - The year 2026 marks the launch of a marketing initiative for Guangdong's traditional dishes in Shanghai, highlighting the current attractiveness of the consumer sector [1] - A new generation of intelligent marketing solutions, AI Drive 2.0, has been developed by a company, showcasing advancements in AI technology [1]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the strong potential of the AI industry and high-growth segments such as gaming, recommending continued investment in these areas [2][13][16]. Group 1: Internet Sector - E-commerce: Alibaba is catalyzing AI-related developments, introducing the "Tongyun Ge" concept, which integrates large models, cloud computing, and chips as a key support for its technology strategy [2][16]. - Social Entertainment Media: Bilibili and Tencent are expected to see strong advertising momentum, with Tencent's gaming fundamentals improving and Bilibili preparing to release new games [2][17]. - Internet Healthcare: JD Health and Alibaba Health are leveraging their platform advantages to deepen collaborations with upstream pharmaceutical manufacturers, leading to sustained revenue and profit growth [2][17]. - Short Video: Kuaishou is maintaining a stable core business, with AI technology enhancing user engagement and commercial conversion [2][18]. - Trendy Toys + IP: Pop Mart announced the establishment of its European headquarters in London, aiming to expand its market presence [2][19]. - Long Video: Multiple platforms are releasing quality series, suggesting investment opportunities in iQIYI and Mango TV [2][20]. - Music Streaming: Tencent Music and NetEase Cloud Music show stable performance, although concerns about competition have led to valuation adjustments [2][20]. Group 2: Media Sector - Gaming: The report maintains a positive outlook on the gaming sector, with expectations of continued industry prosperity into 2026. Key recommendations include Tencent, NetEase, and companies with strong product pipelines like Century Huatong and Giant Network [2][21]. - Advertising: Adjustments in the advertising landscape are not expected to impact the operational trends of Focus Media, with increased investment from internet advertisers anticipated [2][22]. - Publishing: Some publishing companies are facing challenges due to educational reforms, but firms with strong fundamentals and high dividend yields are recommended [2][22]. - Film and Television: Attention is drawn to companies with robust project pipelines, such as Huace Film & TV and Mango TV, as well as cinema chains like Wanda Film and Hengdian Film [2][22]. - IP Derivatives: Companies involved in IP derivatives are highlighted for potential investment, including Huayi Brothers and Shanghai Film Group [2][22]. Group 3: AI Developments - The report notes the rapid advancement of AI applications, particularly with the emergence of Clawdbot, which has gained significant attention in the industry [2][23]. - Recommendations include major cloud players like Google and Amazon, as well as domestic giants like Alibaba and Tencent, focusing on their self-developed models and ecosystems [2][23]. - Specific applications in AI across various sectors are suggested for investment, including AI in gaming, marketing, and healthcare [2][23].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the competitive landscape of AI applications during the Chinese New Year, highlighting major companies' strategies to attract users through cash giveaways and promotional activities, reminiscent of past successful marketing tactics in the mobile payment and short video sectors [6][7][12]. Group 1: AI Application Strategies - Major companies like Tencent, ByteDance, and Baidu are launching cash giveaway campaigns during the Spring Festival, with Tencent planning to distribute 1 billion yuan in red envelopes, aiming to replicate the success of WeChat's past marketing strategies [6][7]. - The competition is not merely a marketing tactic but a strategic positioning based on historical experiences, as the Spring Festival has proven to be a critical period for user acquisition in the Chinese internet landscape [7][10]. - The article notes that the past successes of WeChat and Alipay during the Spring Festival have set a precedent for how companies can leverage this period to achieve exponential user growth [10][12]. Group 2: User Growth and Market Dynamics - The article emphasizes that user growth for AI applications is not just about numbers but is crucial for model evolution and future ecosystem positioning, with major players facing pressure to expand their user bases [13][14]. - Data from QuestMobile indicates that by September 2025, monthly active users for major AI applications like ByteDance's Doubao and Tencent's Yuanbao are projected to be 172 million and 33 million, respectively, suggesting significant room for growth in the AI user market [13]. - The need for user growth is tied to the acquisition of training data, which is essential for improving AI models, creating a positive feedback loop that enhances content accuracy and attracts more users [14]. Group 3: Commercialization Paths for AI - The article outlines three main commercialization paths for AI models: selling APIs, subscription services, and advertising monetization, with current subscription rates for AI tools being relatively low [16]. - The challenge for AI companies is to increase user bases and improve service quality to enhance conversion rates for paid services, with the Spring Festival presenting a prime opportunity for user acquisition [16]. - Advertising is highlighted as a potential revenue stream, but companies must first engage users effectively to increase their daily usage time, which currently averages only 10 minutes [16]. Group 4: Competitive Landscape and Small Firms - Smaller AI firms face challenges in competing with larger companies' aggressive marketing strategies during the Spring Festival, leading them to focus on enhancing their models and finding niche applications [21][22]. - The article suggests that while large firms dominate the cash giveaway landscape, the influx of new users attracted by these promotions could benefit the entire AI industry by fostering user habits and expanding the market [22][23]. - The potential for smaller firms to innovate and carve out specific niches is emphasized, as they may not compete directly with larger firms but can develop unique applications that meet specific user needs [21][22].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges and strategies of corporate philanthropy in China, highlighting the need for sustainable models that integrate social responsibility into business operations. It emphasizes that relying solely on a few individuals for charitable efforts is not sustainable in the long run [1][2]. Group 1: Corporate Philanthropy Models - Five main types of corporate philanthropy are identified among the top 50 companies in China: 1. **Participation by Everyone**: Companies like Tencent encourage public involvement through low-barrier donation options, such as the "Fenfen Donation" program, which has engaged 400 million users by the end of 2024 [2][3]. 2. **Technical or Industrial Support**: Companies like CATL engage in rural revitalization through initiatives that support local agriculture, such as the "I Have an Acre of Land" program, which has reclaimed 280 acres of wasteland [3][4]. 3. **Establishment of Charitable Trusts/Funds**: Many companies, including Vanke, have set up foundations that have collectively invested over 1 billion yuan in various social causes by the end of 2024 [4]. 4. **Creating Charity IPs**: Notable examples include Ping An's Hope Primary Schools, which have supported over 31,000 students and trained over 20,000 rural teachers [4][5]. 5. **Direct Charitable Donations**: This straightforward approach remains a primary method for many companies, although it is seen as less sustainable [4][5]. Group 2: Sustainability of Philanthropic Models - Among the five models, "Technical or Industrial Support" is considered the most sustainable, as it aligns social needs with business capabilities, allowing for a synergy between social and commercial value [5][6]. - Establishing charitable trusts or funds is also viewed as sustainable, as it allows for independent management of social issues, facilitating long-term planning [5][6]. - The "Participation by Everyone" model enhances brand image and is well-suited for platform companies like Tencent, while the "Charity IP" model maximizes brand benefits [5][6]. Group 3: Challenges in Corporate Philanthropy - Companies face significant challenges in creating sustainable philanthropic models, including the need for strategic integration of philanthropy into business operations and the establishment of a culture that promotes ongoing participation [11][12]. - The lack of dedicated personnel in many corporate foundations raises concerns about the effectiveness and management of charitable initiatives [8][9]. - A comprehensive approach to philanthropy is necessary, requiring professional management processes and a clear understanding of social issues to ensure long-term impact [12][13]. Group 4: Financial Contributions and Impact - In 2024, corporate donations accounted for 983 billion yuan, representing 74.21% of total charitable contributions in China, underscoring the critical role of businesses in philanthropy [8]. - Notable large donations include BYD's commitment of 3 billion yuan to education and significant stock donations from individuals supporting educational institutions [8][9]. - The article highlights the diverse forms of donations, including cash, stocks, and services, reflecting a growing trend in corporate philanthropy [8].

Group 1 - Major tech companies like Tencent, Baidu, and Alibaba are competing for the national-level AI application market by distributing billions in cash red envelopes during the 2026 Spring Festival [3][4] - Tencent announced a cash distribution of 1 billion yuan through its Yuanbao app, aiming to replicate the success of WeChat red envelopes [3] - Baidu is also participating by offering 500 million yuan in cash red envelopes through its Wenxin assistant, with plans to collaborate with major events like the 2026 Spring Festival Gala [3][4] Group 2 - A record number of robotics companies are set to participate in the 2026 Spring Festival Gala, with each company reportedly investing 100 million yuan [5] - Companies like Magic Atom and Galaxy General are among those making their debut at the gala, showcasing a significant increase in robotic presence compared to previous years [5] Group 3 - DeepSeek is actively recruiting talent to develop a multilingual AI search engine and enhance its capabilities in intelligent agents, indicating a strategic push to compete with OpenAI and Alphabet [6][7] - The company aims to create a search engine that can process various input forms, including text, images, and audio, to meet diverse user needs [6] Group 4 - Tencent has confirmed the hiring of a Tsinghua University PhD to strengthen its AI research capabilities, particularly in reinforcement learning algorithms [8][9] - The company has undergone significant restructuring to enhance its AI model development framework, attracting more native AI talent [9] Group 5 - Nvidia's CEO Jensen Huang has denied any dissatisfaction with OpenAI and announced plans for a substantial investment, potentially the largest in the company's history [10][12] - Reports suggest that Nvidia's investment in OpenAI could be part of a larger funding round, with OpenAI seeking to raise over 100 billion yuan [12][14] Group 6 - Alibaba is integrating its AI capabilities across cloud computing and chip development, launching its "Cloud + AI + Chip" strategy, with significant production of its self-developed PPU chips [22][23] - The company plans to invest significantly in AI infrastructure and cloud computing, potentially increasing its budget from 380 billion yuan to 480 billion yuan over the next three years [24] Group 7 - ByteDance has implemented new social media guidelines to prevent employees from profiting from company resources, which is expected to reduce the number of commercial accounts operated by employees [19] - The company has previously taken strong actions against external violations, indicating a commitment to maintaining its brand integrity [19] Group 8 - OpenAI is preparing for a potential IPO in the fourth quarter of 2026, engaging with Wall Street banks for informal discussions regarding the listing [14] - The company is also expanding its internal financial team in anticipation of this move, indicating a strategic focus on growth and investor relations [14]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Insights - The report anticipates that Alibaba's cloud business will accelerate growth in FY26Q3, while e-commerce growth may slow down [5] - Total revenue for FY26Q3 is expected to reach 288.1 billion RMB, representing a year-on-year growth of 3% [5] - Adjusted EBITA margin is projected to be 11%, with adjusted EBITA declining by 43% to 31 billion RMB, primarily due to ongoing investments in the Taobao Flash Sale business [5] Financial Forecasts - For the Chinese e-commerce group, revenue is expected to be 164.3 billion RMB, with an adjusted EBITA margin of 23% [5] - The international digital commerce group is projected to generate revenue of 40.8 billion RMB, with an adjusted EBITA margin of -5% [5] - The cloud intelligence group is expected to achieve revenue of 42.9 billion RMB, with an adjusted EBITA margin of 9% [5][6] Business Segment Analysis - The Chinese e-commerce group is facing growth pressure due to a high base effect and overall industry slowdown, with revenue expected to grow by only 3% [7] - The company aims to become the market leader in the Taobao Flash Sale segment, with significant investments planned to achieve this goal [7] - The international digital commerce group is focusing on key regions to enhance operational efficiency, with revenue expected to grow by 8% [8] Profitability and Valuation - The forecasted net profit for FY2026 is 116.1 billion RMB, with a year-on-year decline of 11% [8] - The projected PE ratios for FY2026, FY2027, and FY2028 are 25, 23, and 17 times, respectively [8] - The report highlights a focus on e-commerce and cloud business segments, with the company maintaining a "Buy" rating due to its strategic initiatives [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the industry [11] Core Insights - The development path of the overseas AI industry shows a two-year lag from significant capital expenditure (Capex) investments in 2023 to the explosion of token usage in 2025. Domestic companies are expected to start their AI capital expenditure cycle in the second half of 2024, one year behind their overseas counterparts [3][6][7] - The report highlights that cloud service providers (CSPs) will be the first to benefit from the token explosion, as they serve as the backbone for AI applications. Companies with a full-stack AI layout are likely to achieve a positive cycle of AI investment returns more quickly [3][9] Summary by Sections Overseas Observation - The overseas AI industry is expected to experience a three-stage cycle: high Capex investment in 2023, revenue growth for cloud providers in 2024, and a surge in token usage in 2025. The high Capex investments are primarily directed towards model training, which is costly [6][21][36] Domestic Observation - Domestic companies are lagging behind their overseas counterparts by about a year in terms of investment. The leading domestic cloud provider, Alibaba Cloud, is projected to see its revenue growth rebound significantly starting in the second half of 2024, with a year-on-year growth rate expected to rise from 3% to 26% [7][48] Domestic Forecast - The report predicts that the domestic token explosion will occur in 2026, following the overseas pattern. As of now, the leading cloud provider, Alibaba Cloud, has begun to realize revenue growth, primarily driven by training demand, while inference demand is gradually increasing [8][52] Cloud Computing as the Core of AI - Cloud computing is described as the "blood" of applications, set to benefit first from the token explosion. The demand for cloud services is expected to shift from resource pricing to value pricing, potentially increasing gross margins for cloud resources [9][56] Competitive Landscape - The competition among major players in the AI space will hinge on two factors: the capability of their models and the ability to form effective business closed loops. Companies with a full-stack AI layout are better positioned to convert model advancements into business revenue or barriers [9][60][61]

2026年一开年，市场就传来重磅消息：1月9日，国务院反垄断反不正当竞争委员会办公室宣布，依据 《中华人民共和国反垄断法》，对外卖平台服务行业市场竞争状况开展调查、评估。 是问题，也是期待。这些从身边蹦出来的问号，和它们所承载的美好愿望，或许正是观察新一年消费市 场最好的起点。咱们就顺着这些线索，展望一个与你我钱包和幸福感息息相关的2026年。 同日，市场监管总局发布了2025年综合整治"内卷式"竞争十大制度建设成果；财政部、国家税务总局宣 布自2026年4月1日起，取消光伏等产品增值税出口退税。 外卖大战还会接着打吗？ 紧接着，1月14日，市场监管总局宣布，依据《中华人民共和国反垄断法》，对携程集团有限公司涉嫌 滥用市场支配地位实施垄断行为立案调查。 1月27日，市场监管总局又发布2025年综合整治"内卷式"竞争十大重大案件，包括深圳罗马仕科技有限 公司违反强制性产品认证规定及虚假宣传案，山西老葛商贸有限公司虚假宣传、价格欺诈系列案等。 消息密集登场，消费者心中难免有几个问号：新的一年里，曾经让我们"薅"得那么开心的外卖大战，会 熄火吗？"卷"得飞起的各行各业，能喘口气了吗？经历了预制菜风波，平时点个外卖、 ...

编者荐语： 日经中文网与36氪开展内容交换合作。将精选36氪的精彩独家财经、科技、企业资讯，与读者分享。 以下文章来源于36氪 ，作者邱晓芬 36氪 . 36氪是服务中国新经济参与者的卓越品牌和开创性平台，提供新锐深度的商业报道，强调趋势和价值，我们的slogan是：让一部分人先看到未来。 平头哥自研PPU已成为中国新增AI算力市场的主力芯片之一。 文 ｜ 邱晓芬 封面来源 ｜ 日经中文网 1月22日，接近市场人士称，阿里巴巴集团已决定支持旗下芯片公司平头哥未来独立上市。平头哥是阿里巴巴全资子公司，于2018年成立。 成立8年以来，公司已在计算、存储、网络等领域推出多款性能业界顶级的芯片，据悉，平头哥自研PPU已成为中国新增AI算力市场的主力芯片之一。 互联网公司里， 自研芯片的早期探索者 芯片一直被认为是科技领域最难坑的骨头之一，而平头哥创立之前，阿里巴巴的硬件研发「履历」几乎空白，互联网公司造芯在国内更无先例，平头哥研 发芯片的难度不亚于阿里投入云计算。 虽然现实很骨感，但在这场技术和资本的游戏里，阿里的战略决心不亚于对阿里云的长期投入。 公司成立后，内部芯片研发的路线和模式非常清晰，即重点围绕云端数据中 ...