【解剖大盘】 港股连续调整了多日，今天在A股的带动下终于出现反弹，收盘恒指涨0.17%。 美商务部周二正式宣布，将风力涡轮机等407类钢铁和铝衍生产品纳入关税清单。特朗普钢铝关税范围 陡然扩大，美国进口商措手不及。这很显然对美国经济形成反噬，美股又陷入被动，惯用的伎俩就是打 中国牌。据报道，美国财政部长贝森特当地时间19日在接受采访时称："我们与中方进行了非常良好的 对话，我预计在11月前我们会再次会面。我认为当前工作开展得很顺利。" 再看老铺黄金(06181)业绩也超预期，股东应占利润22.68亿元，同比增加285%。今年上半年，老铺黄金 在单个商场平均销售业绩4.59亿元，已领先国际奢侈品一线巨头。据弗若斯特沙利文调研数据，老铺黄 金消费者与路易威登、爱马仕、卡地亚、宝格丽等国际五大奢侈品牌的消费者平均重合率接近八成，这 意味着国际奢侈品牌消费者越来越多转向老铺黄金，而中国品牌也首次成为高端消费的主流力量。如果 能达到国际奢侈品牌的认知度，那么海外这块增量就会较大，只是品牌的建立还需要时间和底蕴，今天 涨近9%。另外蜜雪集团(02097)、名创优品(09896)均涨幅超4%。 昨日板块聚焦提到的果链类持续 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating strong growth potential and a solid investment opportunity [6]. Core Insights - The company has demonstrated robust financial performance, with a significant increase in revenue and net profit in the first half of 2025, achieving a revenue of 138.76 billion yuan, up 202.4% year-on-year, and a net profit of 45.74 billion yuan, up 401.2% year-on-year [6]. - The company is leveraging its strong IP portfolio, with mature IP entering a harvesting phase and new IP showing high growth potential, reflecting the company's operational strength [6]. - The global expansion strategy is yielding results, with revenue from overseas markets growing significantly, particularly in the Americas and Europe, contributing to an increase in average product prices and overall profitability [6]. - The plush toy category leads growth, with other derivative businesses expected to continue amplifying the commercial value of the IP [6]. - The company is expected to maintain strong earnings growth, with projected EPS of 7.56, 11.24, and 14.55 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, corresponding to P/E ratios of 34X, 23X, and 18X [6]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2024A: 13,038 million yuan - 2025E: 31,941 million yuan - 2026E: 46,575 million yuan - 2027E: 59,598 million yuan - Net profit projections are: - 2024A: 3,125 million yuan - 2025E: 10,156 million yuan - 2026E: 15,097 million yuan - 2027E: 19,535 million yuan - The company’s gross margin is projected to improve to 70.82% in 2025E, up from 66.79% in 2024A [3][7][8].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company reported a strong performance in the first half of 2025, achieving revenue of 138.8 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 204.4%, and a net profit of 45.7 billion CNY, up 396.5% [2] - The adjusted net profit for the same period was 47.1 billion CNY, reflecting a 362.8% increase, surpassing previous forecasts [2] - The adjusted net profit margin reached 33.9%, an increase of 11.6 percentage points, with a gross margin of 70.3%, up 6.3 percentage points [2] Summary by Sections IP Matrix and Global Popularity - The company employs a diverse IP strategy, achieving strong sales performance with five major IPs generating over 1 billion CNY each in revenue [3] - The top IPs include THE MONSTERS, MOLLY, SKULLPANDA, CRYBABY, and DIMOO, with revenues of 48.1 billion CNY, 13.6 billion CNY, 12.2 billion CNY, 12.2 billion CNY, and 11.1 billion CNY respectively, showing significant year-on-year growth [3] Product Structure and Performance - The product mix has diversified, with plush toys, figures, MEGA, and derivatives generating revenues of 61.4 billion CNY, 51.8 billion CNY, 10.1 billion CNY, and 15.5 billion CNY respectively, reflecting year-on-year increases of 1276.2%, 94.8%, 71.8%, and 78.9% [4] - Plush products have become a key driver for expanding the brand's appeal among younger fans globally [4] Global Expansion - The company has seen significant growth in various regions, with revenue from China reaching 82.8 billion CNY (+135.2%), Asia-Pacific at 28.5 billion CNY (+257.8%), and the Americas at 22.6 billion CNY (+1142.3%) [5] - The Americas market has shown the most dramatic growth, with a 10-fold increase in revenue, driven by an expansion of retail presence [5] Financial Forecasts - The revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 have been revised to 308.01 billion CNY, 427.86 billion CNY, and 553.14 billion CNY respectively, with net profits expected to be 106.67 billion CNY, 152.25 billion CNY, and 203.81 billion CNY [6] - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 7.94 CNY, 11.34 CNY, and 15.18 CNY for the same period [6]

（原标题：泡泡玛特比Gucci赚钱） 编辑 | 黄绎达 8月19日晚，泡泡玛特发布2025年半年报。财报显示，泡泡玛特在报告期内实现营收138.8亿元，同比增 长204.4%；毛利率高达70.3%，同比提升6.3个百分点，创下历史新高；经调整净利润实现47.1亿元，同 比增长362.8%，超过2024年全年。 谈及全年的业绩预期，在次日香港举行的财报会上，泡泡玛特首席财务官杨镜冰表示，公司上半年的净 利润率约33%，下半年将有所提升，预计全年净利润率在35%左右。 公司创始人、董事长兼CEO王宁也强调，集团取得了有史以来的最好业绩。"希望今年实现200亿元人民 币的收入，感觉今年达到300亿也相当轻松。" 一个有趣的对比是，泡泡玛特上半年的净利润甚至超过了Gucci母公司开云集团同期的、4.74亿欧元 （约39.61亿元人民币）的水平。 泡泡玛特利润率超预期的主要原因，一方面是海外业务的发展，另一方面是毛利率更高的毛绒品类营收 占比的提升。 财报数据也显示，2025年上半年，泡泡玛特的毛绒品类首次超过手办品类，营收达到61.4亿元。 具体来看，LABUBU所在的THE MONSTERS系列，在2025年上半年 ...

Group 1: Bubble Mart Performance - Bubble Mart reported a significant increase in net profit by 385.6% for the first half of 2025, reaching 4.68 billion RMB, driven by global expansion and IP matrix growth [11][14] - The company's revenue for the same period was 13.88 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 204.4% [11][13] - Bubble Mart's stock price surged to a new high of 316.00 HKD per share, with an increase of 12.54% on the day of the earnings announcement [9][11] Group 2: Financial Metrics - The gross profit for Bubble Mart was reported at 9.76 billion RMB, a 234.4% increase compared to the previous year [13] - The adjusted net profit was 4.71 billion RMB, showing a growth of 362.8% [11][13] - The net profit margin reached 33.7%, an increase of 12.5 percentage points year-on-year [11] Group 3: Market Reaction and Future Outlook - The stock trading volume for Bubble Mart was notable, with a total transaction value of 115.12 billion HKD [5] - Analysts from Xinda Securities have given a "buy" rating, projecting revenues of 30.996 billion RMB, 48.445 billion RMB, and 63.117 billion RMB for 2025 to 2027 [14] Group 4: Sunny Optical Technology Performance - Sunny Optical Technology reported a net profit increase of 52.56% for the first half of 2025, amounting to 1.646 billion RMB [16][19] - The company's total revenue was 19.652 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.56% [16] - The stock price of Sunny Optical rose by 9.74%, closing at 82.25 HKD per share [14][20] Group 5: Market Trends and Related Stocks - The semiconductor sector showed positive momentum, with stocks like SMIC rising by 3.40% due to a rebound in the A-share market [4] - The overall market saw mixed performance, with the industrial index up by 0.67% and healthcare down by 2.58% [5][7]

Core Insights - The founder of Pop Mart, Wang Ning, expressed confidence in achieving a revenue target of 300 billion CNY for the year, significantly higher than the initial goal of 200 billion CNY [1] - In the first half of 2025, Pop Mart reported a revenue of 138.8 billion CNY, representing a year-on-year growth of 204.4%, and an adjusted net profit of 47.1 billion CNY, up 362.8% [1] - The gross profit margin for the first half of 2025 reached a historical high of 70.3%, an increase of 6.3 percentage points year-on-year [1] Revenue and Profitability - Pop Mart's net profit attributable to shareholders was 45.74 billion CNY, marking a year-on-year increase of 396.5% [1] - The LABUBU IP generated 48.1 billion CNY in revenue in the first half of 2025, a staggering growth of 668.0% compared to the previous year, accounting for 34.7% of total revenue [2] - Other IPs such as MOLLY, SKULLPANDA, CRYBABY, and DIMOO each surpassed 10 billion CNY in revenue, while 13 other IPs achieved over 1 billion CNY in revenue [2] Production Capacity - The production capacity for plush products has increased significantly, with current monthly output reaching approximately 30 million units, which is over ten times the capacity from the same period last year [1] - The supply chain head noted that the current monthly production volume is equivalent to what was previously produced in a year [1] Cost Management - The CFO highlighted that the increase in overseas sales, which have higher pricing than domestic sales, contributed to a 4 percentage point increase in gross profit margin [2] - The reduction in the proportion of externally sourced products and optimization of procurement costs led to a 1.5 percentage point increase in gross profit margin [2] - A decrease in the proportion of licensing and mold fees also contributed to an additional 0.8 percentage point increase in gross profit margin [2]

Core Insights - On August 20, 2025, the top three stocks by trading volume in the Southbound Stock Connect were Yingfu Fund (02800), Dongfang Zhenxuan (01797), and Pop Mart (09992) with trading volumes of 6.903 billion, 4.896 billion, and 4.335 billion respectively [1] - In the Southbound Stock Connect for Shenzhen, the top three stocks were Yingfu Fund (02800), Hang Seng China Enterprises (02828), and Xiaomi Group-W (01810) with trading volumes of 3.658 billion, 2.816 billion, and 2.646 billion respectively [1] Southbound Stock Connect (Shanghai) Active Trading Companies - Yingfu Fund (02800) had a trading volume of 6.903 billion with a net buy of -6.681 billion [1] - Dongfang Zhenxuan (01797) had a trading volume of 4.896 billion with a net buy of +0.304 billion [1] - Pop Mart (09992) had a trading volume of 4.335 billion with a net buy of +0.606 billion [1] - Other notable companies included SMIC (00981) with a trading volume of 3.213 billion and a net buy of -0.150 billion, and Tencent Holdings (00700) with a trading volume of 3.128 billion and a net buy of +1.188 billion [1] Southbound Stock Connect (Shenzhen) Active Trading Companies - Yingfu Fund (02800) had a trading volume of 3.658 billion with a net buy of -3.641 billion [1] - Hang Seng China Enterprises (02828) had a trading volume of 2.816 billion with a net buy of -2.815 billion [1] - Xiaomi Group-W (01810) had a trading volume of 2.646 billion with a net buy of -0.465 billion [1] - Other notable companies included Pop Mart (09992) with a trading volume of 2.340 billion and a net buy of -0.263 billion, and SMIC (00981) with a trading volume of 1.992 billion and a net buy of +0.566 billion [1]

Core Insights - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the impressive financial performance of Pop Mart in the first half of 2025, showcasing significant revenue growth and profitability, driven by strong sales in plush products and international expansion [1][2]. Financial Performance - Pop Mart reported a revenue of 138.8 billion RMB for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 204.4% [1]. - The gross profit margin reached 70.3%, an increase of 6.3 percentage points compared to the previous year, marking a historical high [1]. - Adjusted net profit for the period was 47.1 billion RMB, up 362.8% year-on-year, surpassing the total net profit for the entire year of 2024 [1]. - The company aims for a full-year revenue target of 200 billion RMB, with a potential to reach 300 billion RMB [1]. Revenue Breakdown - The plush product category's revenue exceeded that of figurines for the first time, generating 61.4 billion RMB in the first half of 2025 [2]. - The LABUBU series contributed 48.1 billion RMB, accounting for 34.7% of total revenue [3]. - Other notable IPs included MOLLY with 13.6 billion RMB (up 73.5%), SKULLPANDA with 12.2 billion RMB (up 112.4%), and CRYBABY with 12.2 billion RMB (up 248.7%) [3]. International Expansion - Revenue from the Chinese market reached 82.8 billion RMB, a growth of 135.2%, while the Asia-Pacific region saw a 257.8% increase to 28.5 billion RMB [7]. - The Americas experienced a remarkable growth of 1142.3%, with revenue reaching 22.6 billion RMB, and Europe and other regions grew by 729.2% to 4.8 billion RMB [7]. - As of June 30, 2025, Pop Mart operated 571 stores across 18 countries, with a net increase of 40 stores since the beginning of the year [7]. Market Sentiment - Despite the positive performance, some institutions express concerns about the sustainability of growth and short-term valuation risks [8]. - Goldman Sachs noted that while net profit growth exceeded expectations, it only "roughly met" the elevated expectations of buyers [8]. - Following the earnings report, Pop Mart's stock price rose by 12.54% to 316 HKD per share, with a year-to-date increase of over 249% [8].

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming launch of the Mini version of LABUBU is expected to become a best-selling product, enhancing the brand's appeal and market presence [1][4]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company reported a total revenue of 138.8 billion yuan, a significant increase of 204.4% compared to the same period last year [5]. - The adjusted net profit reached 47.1 billion yuan, reflecting a remarkable year-on-year growth of 362.8% [5]. Contribution of LABUBU - LABUBU has been a key driver of the company's success, with its series, THE MONSTERS, generating 48.1 billion yuan in revenue, accounting for 34.7% of total revenue and showing a staggering growth of 668.0% year-on-year [7]. - The plush toy category, led by LABUBU, has surpassed the core category of figurines, now contributing 44% to the company's revenue, up from approximately 10% last year [7]. Market Expansion and Strategy - Despite only adding 12 new offline stores in the first half of the year, the domestic market still achieved revenue of 82.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 135.2% [11]. - The total number of offline stores in China has reached 443 [11]. - The company is focusing on the long-term value of LABUBU as a world-class IP, maintaining a cautious approach to product development to avoid over-commercialization [11]. Industry Insights - The high profit margins in the trendy toy industry are attracting significant interest from the capital market, with a notable gap between other brands and the company [11]. - The industry faces challenges in terms of resource acquisition from artists and the operational time required for effective management [13]. - The company has developed the capability for full lifecycle management of its IP, which is a competitive advantage built over years of experience [13].

Core Viewpoint - Pop Mart achieved its best performance ever in the first half of the year, with revenue of 13.88 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of over 200%, and adjusted net profit of 4.71 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 362.8%, both exceeding the full-year levels of 2024 [1][8] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company had 13 IPs generating over 100 million yuan in revenue, with 5 IPs surpassing 1 billion yuan [1] - The LABUBU series demonstrated strong revenue generation, achieving 4.81 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 668%, and its revenue share increased from 13.7% to 34.7% [1][2] - The plush product category saw revenue increase by over 12 times, reaching 6.1 billion yuan, surpassing the sales of figurines for the first time [3] Group 2: Market Demand and Supply Chain - Despite not fully meeting market demand, the company reported a monthly production capacity of approximately 30 million plush toys, ten times that of the previous year [2] - The number of registered members in mainland China increased by 13.04 million, reaching 59.12 million, with stable sales contribution and repurchase rates from members [2] Group 3: International Expansion - The company is leveraging LABUBU's popularity to accelerate global expansion, with all four major regions (China, Asia-Pacific, Americas, Europe) achieving triple-digit growth [5] - The number of overseas stores doubled compared to the beginning of the year, with 70 new stores opened in the first half, and plans to exceed 200 stores by year-end [5][6] Group 4: Profitability and Margins - The gross margin increased to 70.3%, with the rise in overseas sales contributing 4 percentage points to this increase [7] - Adjusted net profit margin reached 33.9%, an increase of 11.6 percentage points year-on-year [7] Group 5: Future Outlook - The company is optimistic about achieving a full-year revenue target of 30 billion yuan, significantly higher than the initial guidance of 20 billion yuan [8] - Estimated full-year net profit could exceed 10 billion yuan, more than three times that of 2024 [9]