Core Viewpoint - Pop Mart's stock price has been declining, currently down 8.95% to HKD 199.40, as it transitions from explosive growth to sustainable growth, according to Morgan Stanley's report [2] Group 1: Financial Performance - Pop Mart's revenue for Q3 2025 saw a significant year-on-year increase of 245%-250%, driven by new product launches and revenue recognition from pre-sales [2] - Revenue in the Chinese market grew by 185%-190%, with offline channels increasing by 130%-135% and online channels by 300%-305% [2] - Internationally, revenue surged by 365%-370%, with the Americas experiencing a staggering growth of 1265%-1270% [2] Group 2: Market Sentiment - Despite strong financial results, Pop Mart's stock has been under pressure, with a notable drop of 8.08% on October 21 and 9% on October 23, marking the largest single-day decline since April [3] - Analysts express concerns that Pop Mart's revenue growth may peak this year, leading to potential slowdowns in the following year [3] - Short-selling activity has increased significantly, with shares shorted rising from 1.11 million to 1.62 million and the short-selling amount increasing from HKD 241 million to HKD 623 million [3][4]

泡泡玛特(09992.HK)股价今日持续下行。截至发稿，跌8.86%，报199.60港元。 注：泡泡玛特的表现 德银最新研报指出，为应对需求激增，泡泡玛特将Labubu产能从上半年的1,000万只大幅提升至年底月均5,000万只。 该行警示，对于依 赖独特设计与稀缺性驱动的潮流玩具品牌而言，大规模量产往往是热度消退的前兆。 | 開 - | 期末总股本(万股) | 司 交容交易 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 卖空股数(万股) ; | 金额(亿元) ; | | 2025-12-08 | 134,294.32 | 305.12 | 6.23 | | 2025-12-05 | 134,294.32 | 161.70 | 3.51 | | 2025-12-04 | 134,294.32 | 155.26 | 3.32 | | 2025-12-03 | 134,294.32 | 168.56 | 3.66 | | 2025-12-02 | 134,294.32 | 111.06 | 2.41 | | 2025-12-01 | 134,294.32 | 174.04 | 3.81 ...

Core Viewpoint - Pop Mart has officially opened its first store in Vancouver, Canada, attracting significant consumer attention with popular IP products [1] Group 1: Store Opening and Consumer Engagement - The opening of the first store in Vancouver is a response to high consumer demand observed on social media and e-commerce platforms [1] - The company aims to connect more directly with fans through physical stores, enhancing consumer experience [1] Group 2: Expansion Plans - Pop Mart currently operates over 60 physical stores in the United States [1] - The company plans to open additional stores in Vancouver by early 2026 and will enter Toronto, completing its core city layout across Canada's east and west coasts [1] - The brand is committed to further developing its presence in the North American market while maintaining its original brand ethos [1]

港股泡泡玛特持续走弱，盘中一度跌逾7%。 港股泡泡玛特持续走弱，盘中一度跌逾7%。 ...

Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index closed down by 1.1% [1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index decreased by 0.24% [1] Company Movements - Pop Mart experienced a decline of over 8% [1] - Chinese brokerage stocks saw an increase, with Huatai Securities rising by over 6% [1] - Coal stocks fell, with China Qinfa dropping by over 12% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market continues to decline, with the Hang Seng Index dropping by 1% and the Hang Seng Tech Index decreasing by 0.04% [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index fell by 1% [1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index experienced a slight decline of 0.04% [1] Group 2: Company Performance - New consumption concept stocks are underperforming, with Pop Mart falling over 8% [1] - Lao Pu Gold dropped more than 3% [1] - Mao Ge Ping decreased by 2.4% [1]

图片来源：智通财经 港股泡泡玛特持续走弱，盘中一度跌逾7%。 ...

Summary of Pop Mart International Group Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Pop Mart International Group - **Industry**: Art Toy Culture and Retail - **Listing**: Listed on the Hong Kong stock exchange in December 2020 - **Key IPs**: Labubu, Molly, Skullpanda, Crybaby, Dimoo - **Retail Presence**: Operates 401 stores in mainland China and 120 stores outside mainland China as of end-2024 [10][10] Key Points from the Conference Call Product Strategy - **Sales Performance**: Sales this year have significantly exceeded expectations, but management is focused on long-term development [2][2] - **Internal Optimization**: Management is addressing weaknesses from rapid growth by optimizing organizational structure, channel operations, IP management, and supply chain capabilities [2][2] - **New Product Launches**: Q4 is the peak season, with new product series for top IPs planned for gradual weekly releases. However, the launch of Labubu 4.0 has been postponed to next year due to challenges from its popularity [2][2][2] Marketing and Capital Allocation - **Experiential Marketing**: The company is enhancing IP influence through flagship stores and immersive marketing strategies, such as character performances at theme parks and events like Macy's Thanksgiving Day Parade [3][3] - **Interactive Engagement**: Future marketing will explore more interactive forms of IP engagement to enhance consumer experience [3][3] Supply Chain Management - **Supply Chain Optimization**: The supply chain has been optimized to a high level, but management aims to improve delivery speed through enhanced logistics and local warehousing [4][4] - **Demand Forecasting**: Sales data will inform more accurate demand forecasting, and marketing plans will be prepared earlier for key festivals [4][4] Financial Projections and Valuation - **Price Target**: The updated price target is HK$380.0, down from HK$435 due to higher beta assumptions [5][5] - **Revenue Growth**: Projected revenues are expected to grow from Rmb4,617 million in 2022 to Rmb86,042 million by 2029 [6][6] - **Profitability Metrics**: EBIT margin is projected to increase from 14.8% in 2022 to 46.1% by 2029, with net earnings expected to rise from Rmb573 million to Rmb30,693 million over the same period [6][6] Risks and Challenges - **Industry Risks**: Key risks include a slowdown in China's economy, increased competition from internet firms, regulatory scrutiny of the blind box format, and fashion risk in existing IPs [11][11] - **Company-Specific Risks**: Risks include failure to attract consumers with new IPs, challenges in expanding into low-tier cities, and profitability pressures from investments in new initiatives [12][12] Market Metrics - **Current Stock Price**: HK$224.80 as of November 28, 2025 - **Market Capitalization**: HK$302 billion (approximately US$38.8 billion) [7][7] - **Forecast Stock Return**: Expected price appreciation of 69.0% and a dividend yield of 2.1%, leading to a total forecast stock return of 71.1% [9][9] Conclusion Pop Mart International Group is positioned for significant growth in the art toy market, with a strong focus on optimizing internal capabilities and enhancing consumer engagement through innovative marketing strategies. However, the company faces various risks that could impact its long-term success.

年内A股在科技板块的提振下开启了迈向4000点的征程，但亦有部分板块未能搭上车。 多只重仓消费股的基金净值迄今为止遗憾告负，在传统消费持续不景气的背景下，部分高位加仓新消费的基金 也在个股的回撤中折损净值。 多名基金经理认为，"旧消费"在经历了长达四年的回撤后，估值已回归合理区间；新消费面临的则是高景气 度与高估值并存的现状。此外，在个股遴选中，部分基金经理提及"出海"这一关键词，并认为国产消费品牌 在国际竞争中潜力巨大，海外营收若能放量，对应当前估值水平有不少增长空间。 多只消费主题基金"躲牛市" 年内的科技牛市中，五年前的"核心资产"多数缺席，白酒、家电以及银行等板块多数涨幅有限，其中消费类 个股更是表现平平。据Wind数据，年初至今"酒类指数"跌幅超过6%，"零售指数"跌超2%，成为为数不多的 下跌板块。 因此，在多只科技股催生的"翻倍基"榜单中，还有部分消费主题产品跌幅超过10%，占据跌幅靠前位置。 以 华东某公募旗下消费主题基金 为例，上半年的两个季度内，该基金重仓股中包括了贵州茅台、五粮液和美 的集团等传统消费股，上半年跌幅达17%，下半年虽转向了消费电子但依旧走势一般。 "旧消费"不景气的同时， ...

Core Viewpoint - The rise of entrepreneurs from Henan province signifies a shift in China's consumption landscape, showcasing that success is achievable through grounded, practical approaches rather than traditional elite backgrounds [1][11]. Group 1: Entrepreneurs from Henan - Yu Donglai, founder of a retail chain, offers employees 150 to 180 days of annual leave with an average salary of 8,000, demonstrating a commitment to employee satisfaction that translates into business success, with annual sales nearing 17 billion [5][11]. - Zhang Hongchao and Zhang Hongfu, founders of Mixue Ice City, disrupted the beverage market by significantly lowering prices, establishing their brand as the world's largest restaurant chain by store count, surpassing even global giants like KFC and McDonald's [7][11]. - Wang Ning, founder of Pop Mart, capitalizes on emotional pricing, transforming toys into luxury items for young consumers, and has achieved a personal net worth surpassing that of prominent figures like Jack Ma [9][11]. Group 2: Economic and Social Context - Henan, with a population exceeding 100 million and a significant labor force, has historically faced economic challenges, including a stark wealth gap and limited educational opportunities, yet is now positioned to leverage its demographic advantages in the new economic landscape [3][11]. - The shift from an export-driven economy to a domestic consumption-focused model has allowed Henan to emerge as a key player, with its large population now serving as both a consumer base and a labor reserve [11][15]. - The character and mindset of Henan entrepreneurs, characterized by practicality and resilience, contrast with traditional business narratives, emphasizing a focus on supply chain efficiency and grounded business practices [13][17]. Group 3: Broader Implications - The rise of Henan entrepreneurs reflects a structural change in China's economy, moving towards a decentralized and diversified consumption model, challenging previous stereotypes associated with the region [15][19]. - The success stories from Henan illustrate that future consumption trends may prioritize accessibility, cost-effectiveness, and emotional connection over high-tech solutions, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics [17][19]. - The emergence of Henan as a business hub symbolizes a broader transformation in Chinese commercial civilization, suggesting that growth can originate from traditionally overlooked areas [19].