2026年港股首个交易日，三大指数高开高走。截至收盘，恒生指数涨2.76%报26338.47点，日内涨超700点；恒生国企指数涨 2.86%报9168.99点，恒生科技指数涨4%报5736.44点。 午后保险股走强，云锋金融盘中涨近8%，中国再保险盘中涨近6%，中国人寿一度涨超5%。资源股集体飙升，亚太资源盘中 涨超22%，中国白银集团盘中涨超10%，力勤资源一度涨超8%，灵宝黄金盘中涨近6%。科技股中，百度集团-SW午后涨近 10%，金蝶国际盘中涨超7%，创维集团一度涨超12%。 综合多家市场机构观点来看，港股2026年首个交易日大涨有多重原因：一是1月2日，离岸人民币兑美元汇率盘中升破6.97， 创下2023年5月以来的新高水平，进一步鼓励资金流入港股；二是"港股GPU第一股"壁仞科技上市大涨，这种"首日盘中翻 倍"的赚钱效应提振了市场对硬科技、半导体和AI板块的投资情绪；三是港股龙头个股有利好消息，如华虹半导体向华虹集团 等4名交易对方购买其合计持有的华力微97.4988%股权，以及百度拟分拆昆仑芯并独立上市，再次印证了芯片、AI算力赛道 的市场前景和资本认可度。 1月2日，港股商业航天概念股集体飙升。 ...

来源：朝阳永续 | 载据来源:朝阳水续盘利预测载招房 贯币单位:亿元人民币 | | | | | | | 日時 香港電影 更多反境调测 展注朝阳水线会负责 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 机构面积了 | 发布日期 | 要业收入 | 125-5回比 | 净利润 | 同比 | 经调整净利润 | 同比 | | 实方预测区间 | | 268.97~303.47 | 0.6%-13.5% | 75.81~115.85 | -13.5%-32.2% | 84.54-99.78 | -12.7%~3.1% | | 平均收 | | 287.46 | 7.5% | 84.40 | -3.7% | 91.12 | -5.9% | | 中位数 | | 287,37 | 7.4% | 81.82 | -6.7% | 90.29 | -6.7% | | 第一上海证券 | 2025-12-09 | 292.77 | 9.5% | 77.22 | -11.9% | == | == | | 东方证券 | 2025-11-27 | 284.01 | 6.2% | 87. ...

1. 网易-S第四季度业绩预期怎么样？ 截至2025年12月10日，根据朝阳永续季度业绩前瞻数据： 预测公司Q4一致预期营业收入268.97~303.47亿元，同比增长0.6%~13.5%； 预测公司Q4一致预期净利润75.81~115.85亿元，同比变动-13.5%~32.2%； 预测公司Q4一致预期经调整净利润84.54~99.78亿元，同比变动-12.7%~3.1%。 关注后续财报数据披露后能否超预期，朝阳永续港股季度业绩前瞻数据将为投资者提供业绩鉴定。 华安证券认为：网易-S在25Q3实现收入283.6亿元，同比增长8.2%，毛利率64.1%，同比增加1.2个百分点。调整后净利润95.0亿元，同比增长26.7%，净利 率33.5%，同比增加4.9个百分点。游戏业务收入233亿，同比增长11.8%，得益于《梦幻西游》PC端、《逆水寒》等游戏收入增长。《梦幻西游》PC端最 高在线人数创新高，达358万。海外市场《命运：群星》登顶多地区下载榜，后续《暗黑破坏神IV》等游戏将陆续上线。有道业务收入16.3亿元，同比增 长3.6%，持续推进"AI+教育"布局，推出新一代有道AI答疑笔SpaceX。云音乐收入19 ...

Group 1: Core Insights - The overseas business segments of major Chinese internet companies have become "profit dark horses," with Alibaba's international digital commerce turning profitable, Meituan's Keeta achieving monthly profitability in Hong Kong, and Tencent's overseas gaming revenue surging by 43% year-on-year [1] - As domestic internet traffic growth reaches diminishing returns, going overseas has become a necessary strategy for companies, evolving from "go overseas or go home" to "no core capabilities, no overseas expansion" [1] Group 2: Cross-Border E-commerce - Alibaba's international retail business reported revenue of 28.068 billion yuan, a 10% year-on-year increase, driven by growth from AliExpress and other international operations [2] - The international wholesale business generated 6.731 billion yuan, an 11% increase year-on-year, attributed to growth in value-added services related to cross-border business [2] - Temu's gross merchandise volume (GMV) growth is primarily due to rapid penetration in the European (30-40% share, 60-70% year-on-year growth) and Latin American markets (over 15% share), while growth in North America is slowing [2][3] Group 3: Local Lifestyle Services - Meituan's Keeta achieved its first monthly profitability in Hong Kong, marking a significant milestone in its overseas expansion [4] - Keeta is expanding in the Middle East and Brazil, utilizing AI algorithms and big data to optimize delivery routes and improve efficiency [4][5] - The competitive landscape in Brazil is intense, with Didi and Uber also expanding their food delivery services, indicating a battle for market share [6] Group 4: Entertainment Sector - Tencent's international gaming revenue reached 20.8 billion yuan, a 43% year-on-year increase, driven by successful titles like "Clash Royale" and "PUBG MOBILE" [7] - NetEase's overseas strategy is undergoing significant adjustments, with the closure of several overseas studios despite some successful game launches [8] Group 5: Mobile Phones - Xiaomi's smartphone revenue declined by 3.1% year-on-year to 46 billion yuan, attributed to a decrease in average selling price (ASP) [9] - Xiaomi's overseas internet service revenue reached a record high of 3.3 billion yuan, growing by 19.1% year-on-year, with a notable increase in the share of high-margin overseas market revenue [10] - The competition in the African market between Xiaomi and Transsion is intensifying, leading to price wars [10] Group 6: Conclusion - The third-quarter financial reports indicate a shift in Chinese internet companies' overseas strategies, moving from reliance on policy advantages and low prices to focusing on supply chain capabilities, AI technology, localization, and compliance management [12] - The transformation represents an upgrade from being participants in the global value chain to integrators, with challenges such as geopolitical compliance risks and cultural differences remaining significant [13]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The company achieved revenue of 28.36 billion yuan in Q3 2025, representing a year-over-year increase of 8.2% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 1.7% [4] - The gross profit for Q3 was 18.18 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 64.1%, an increase of 1.2 percentage points year-over-year [4] - Adjusted net profit reached 9.50 billion yuan, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 26.7% and a net margin of 33.5%, up 4.9 percentage points year-over-year [4] Revenue Breakdown - The gaming and related services revenue for Q3 was 23.3 billion yuan, up 11.8% year-over-year, driven by growth in key titles such as "Fantasy Westward Journey" and "Nirvana in Fire" [5] - The company continues to expand its global gaming footprint, with successful launches of new titles in overseas markets [5] AI and Education Initiatives - The Youdao segment reported revenue of 1.63 billion yuan in Q3, a year-over-year increase of 3.6%, focusing on the "AI + Education" strategy [6] - New AI-enabled hardware and software products have been introduced, enhancing the educational offerings [6] Cloud Music Developments - Cloud Music generated revenue of 1.96 billion yuan in Q3, a slight decline of 1.8% year-over-year, with AI features enhancing user experience [7] - The introduction of the "AI Tuner" feature aims to enrich the platform's content ecosystem [7] Financial Projections - Projected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 113.91 billion yuan, 124.63 billion yuan, and 134.92 billion yuan, respectively [8] - Non-GAAP net profits for the same years are expected to be 39.67 billion yuan, 42.26 billion yuan, and 46.08 billion yuan [8] Key Financial Metrics - The company is expected to maintain a gross margin of around 64% over the next few years, with a projected return on equity (ROE) of 24% in 2025 [11] - Earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to grow from 10.37 yuan in 2024 to 14.29 yuan in 2027 [11]

Core Viewpoint - The company shows strong growth momentum driven by deferred revenue and overseas expansion, maintaining a "buy" rating Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company achieved revenue of 28.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.2% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.7% [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company was 8.6 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 31.8% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 0.2% [1] - The gross margin for Q3 was 64.1%, up 1.2 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin reached 31.0%, an increase of 5.4 percentage points year-on-year [1] - As of the end of Q3 2025, the company's contract liabilities amounted to 19.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 15% [1] Group 2: Game and Product Performance - Revenue from games and related value-added services reached 23.3 billion yuan in Q3 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 11.8% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 2.3% [2] - The growth in revenue was driven by titles such as "Dream of the Red Chamber" and "Egg Party," as well as new games like "Yanyun Sixteen Sounds" [2] - The gross margin for the gaming segment was 69.3%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.5 percentage points [2] - The peak concurrent online users for "Dream of the Red Chamber" reached 3.58 million, setting a new record [2] Group 3: AI and Innovation - Cloud music's revenue in Q3 was 1.96 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.8%, but the gross margin improved by 2.6 percentage points to 35.4% [3] - The introduction of "AI Tuning Master" aims to enhance user experience with personalized music [3] - Youdao's revenue in Q3 was 1.63 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 3.6% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 14.9%, primarily driven by online marketing services [3] - AI-driven subscription service revenue reached approximately 100 million yuan, marking a year-on-year growth of over 40% [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" investment rating for the company [3][6]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 28.4 billion yuan in Q3 2025, representing an 8.2% year-on-year increase, with a gross profit of 18.2 billion yuan, up 10.3% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 8.6 billion yuan, which is a 31.8% increase year-on-year [1][2]. - The company has a strong cash position with net cash of 153.2 billion yuan and operating cash flow of 12.9 billion yuan in Q3 2025, reflecting a 21.7% year-on-year growth [1]. - The classic games segment performed well, contributing to a revenue of 23.3 billion yuan in Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 11.8%, driven by self-developed games and several agency games [6][8]. - The company has a rich pipeline of upcoming games, including titles that have already gained traction in both domestic and international markets [6][8]. - The report anticipates that the company's net profit attributable to shareholders will reach 35.1 billion yuan, 38.5 billion yuan, and 42.5 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [6][8]. Financial Data and Valuation - The total revenue forecast for the company is projected to grow from 103.5 billion yuan in 2023 to 130.1 billion yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 7% [2][9]. - The net profit is expected to grow from 29.4 billion yuan in 2023 to 42.5 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting a CAGR of around 10% [2][9]. - The report highlights a decrease in the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio from 20.6 in 2023 to 14.2 in 2027, indicating an attractive valuation over the forecast period [2][9]. Shareholder Information - The company has a total share capital of 3.168 billion shares, with a market capitalization of 67.35 billion Hong Kong dollars [3][6]. - The major shareholder, Shining Globe International Limited, holds a 45.17% stake in the company [3].

Group 1: Overall Strategy and Market Trends - The report highlights a dual-driven strategy where technology and cyclical sectors are rebalancing, with opportunities in the chemical industry emerging under the "anti-involution" trend [7][8] - The A-share market is experiencing accelerated capacity clearance, indicating a turning point for cyclical industries, particularly in chemicals, which show significant advantages over traditional sectors like steel and coal [8][9] - The chemical industry is expected to enter a new prosperity cycle driven by supply-demand recovery and anti-involution policies, with a notable decrease in capital expenditure and a resilient export market [9][10] Group 2: Industry-Specific Insights - The military industry is currently facing high valuations, with a PE-TTM of 67.34, indicating a slight decrease from previous weeks, while geopolitical uncertainties are expected to accelerate military orders [13][14] - The real estate sector shows signs of stabilization, with new home transaction areas increasing month-on-month, supported by government policies aimed at boosting investment and consumption [17][21] - The consumer services sector, particularly in tourism and dining, is witnessing a recovery, with companies like Ctrip and Haidilao reporting strong performance and expansion plans [24][25] Group 3: Company-Specific Developments - Lenovo Group is benefiting from the Windows 11 upgrade cycle, with a projected non-GAAP net profit growth of 21.8% for FY2026, reflecting strong supply chain resilience [29][30] - NetEase is expected to see growth driven by overseas gaming expansion and new game launches, with a projected net profit increase of 31.8% in Q3 2025 [34][35] - Dawi Technology is focusing on AI data centers, with plans to enhance its competitive edge through strategic partnerships and infrastructure development [38][39]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported strong financial performance in Q3 2025, with revenue and net profit showing significant year-over-year growth, indicating resilience and growth potential across its business segments [1][2][3][4]. Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company achieved revenue of 28.359 billion yuan, representing a year-over-year increase of 8.2% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 1.7% [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 8.616 billion yuan, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 31.8% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 0.2% [1]. - Non-GAAP net profit was 9.502 billion yuan, with a year-over-year increase of 26.7% but a slight quarter-over-quarter decrease of 0.3% [1]. - Gross margin improved to 64.1%, up 2.0 percentage points year-over-year, while the sales expense ratio increased to 15.7%, up 8.3 percentage points year-over-year [1]. Gaming Business - The gaming and value-added services segment generated revenue of 22.3 billion yuan in Q3 2025, marking an 11.8% year-over-year increase and a 2.3% quarter-over-quarter increase [2]. - The company demonstrated strong operational capabilities with classic IPs performing well, including record-high concurrent players for "Dream of Dreams" [2]. - New game launches, such as "Fate: Stars" and upcoming titles like "The Sea of Forgotten," are expected to enhance global reach and player engagement [2]. NetEase Youdao - NetEase Youdao reported revenue of 1.6 billion yuan in Q3 2025, showing a year-over-year growth of 3.6% and a quarter-over-quarter growth of 14.9% [3]. - The AI-native strategy is yielding positive results, with collaborations enhancing resource integration and market demand targeting [3]. NetEase Cloud Music - NetEase Cloud Music achieved revenue of 2 billion yuan in Q3 2025, a slight year-over-year decline of 1.8% but stable quarter-over-quarter [4]. - The introduction of AI tuning features and award-winning recommendation models has improved user experience significantly [4]. Innovation and Other Businesses - Revenue from innovation and other businesses was 1.4 billion yuan, down 18.9% year-over-year and 15.3% quarter-over-quarter [4]. - The company is focusing on brand rejuvenation and leveraging AI technology to enhance content quality and community engagement [4]. Profit Forecast and Investment Rating - The company forecasts revenues of 114.8 billion yuan, 126.5 billion yuan, and 136.2 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with adjusted net profits of 39.1 billion yuan, 44.1 billion yuan, and 49.1 billion yuan respectively [4]. - The target price for 2026 is set at 265 HKD, maintaining a "Buy" rating based on the profitability and competitive landscape of different business segments [4].

Group 1: Performance Overview - The company maintained a "Buy" rating, reporting a robust Q3 performance with revenue of 28.4 billion yuan (up 8.2% YoY, up 1.7% QoQ) and net profit of 8.6 billion yuan (up 31.8% YoY, up 0.2% QoQ) [1] - Gross margin for Q3 was 64.1% (up 1.2 percentage points YoY), and net margin was 31.0% (up 5.4 percentage points YoY), driven by gains from stock investments and lower foreign exchange losses [1] - The company expects net profit for 2025-2027 to be 35.7 billion, 38.3 billion, and 42.9 billion yuan respectively, with current PE ratios of 16.6, 15.5, and 13.8 times [1] Group 2: Gaming and New Releases - Revenue from games and related services reached 23.3 billion yuan (up 11.8% YoY, up 2.3% QoQ), with growth attributed to titles like "Dream of the Red Chamber" and new releases [1] - The peak concurrent online users for "Dream of the Red Chamber" reached 3.58 million, showcasing the company's long-term operational strength [1] - The overseas product lineup is expanding, with "Fate: Stars" topping iOS download charts in multiple regions and "Yanyun Sixteen Sounds" achieving over 2 million players in 24 hours [1] Group 3: AI and Revenue Growth - Cloud Music reported Q3 revenue of 1.96 billion yuan, with a gross margin increase of 2.6 percentage points to 35.4%, driven by the launch of "AI Tuning Master" [2] - Youdao's revenue for Q3 was 1.63 billion yuan, primarily from online marketing services, with a YoY growth exceeding 40% [2] - AI-driven subscription service revenue reached approximately 100 million yuan, marking a historical high with over 40% YoY growth [2]