证券研究报告 | 公司点评报告 2025 年 11 月 25 日 网易-S（09999.HK） 经典游戏表现亮眼，后续储备丰富有望贡献增量 TMT 及中小盘/传媒 公司发布 25Q3 季报，实现收入 284 亿元，同比增加 8.2%；实现毛利润 182 亿元，同比增长 10.3%；实现归母净利润 86 亿元，同比增长 31.8%；实现 Non-GAAP 净利润 95 亿元，同比增长 26.7%。截止三季度末，公司净现金 1532 亿元，25Q3 经营性净现金流入 129 亿元，同比增长 21.7%。三季度分 红每股 0.114 美元。 ❑ 风险提示：新游表现不及预期、竞争格局恶化、监管风险。 财务数据与估值 | 会计年度 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万元) | 103468 | 105295 | 112982 | 121568 | 130078 | | 同比增长 | 7% | 2% | 7% | 8% | 7% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 27709 | 295 ...

Group 1: Overall Strategy and Market Trends - The report highlights a dual-driven strategy where technology and cyclical sectors are rebalancing, with opportunities in the chemical industry emerging under the "anti-involution" trend [7][8] - The A-share market is experiencing accelerated capacity clearance, indicating a turning point for cyclical industries, particularly in chemicals, which show significant advantages over traditional sectors like steel and coal [8][9] - The chemical industry is expected to enter a new prosperity cycle driven by supply-demand recovery and anti-involution policies, with a notable decrease in capital expenditure and a resilient export market [9][10] Group 2: Industry-Specific Insights - The military industry is currently facing high valuations, with a PE-TTM of 67.34, indicating a slight decrease from previous weeks, while geopolitical uncertainties are expected to accelerate military orders [13][14] - The real estate sector shows signs of stabilization, with new home transaction areas increasing month-on-month, supported by government policies aimed at boosting investment and consumption [17][21] - The consumer services sector, particularly in tourism and dining, is witnessing a recovery, with companies like Ctrip and Haidilao reporting strong performance and expansion plans [24][25] Group 3: Company-Specific Developments - Lenovo Group is benefiting from the Windows 11 upgrade cycle, with a projected non-GAAP net profit growth of 21.8% for FY2026, reflecting strong supply chain resilience [29][30] - NetEase is expected to see growth driven by overseas gaming expansion and new game launches, with a projected net profit increase of 31.8% in Q3 2025 [34][35] - Dawi Technology is focusing on AI data centers, with plans to enhance its competitive edge through strategic partnerships and infrastructure development [38][39]

4、网易云音乐：2025Q3 实现营收20 亿元（YoY-1.8%、QoQ 持平）。 机构：国海证券 研究员：陈梦竹/尹芮 事件: 2025 年11 月20 日公司公告2025Q3 财报，2025Q3 实现营收283.59亿元（YoY+8.2%、QoQ+1.7%）；归 母净利润为86.16 亿元（YoY+31.8%、QoQ+0.2%），non-GAAP 归母净利润为95.02 亿元 （YoY+26.7%、QoQ-0.3%）。 我们的观点： 1、主要财务指标分析：网易2025Q3 实现营业收入283.59 亿元（YoY+8.2%、QoQ+1.7%）；归母净利 润为86.16 亿元（YoY+31.8%、QoQ+0.2%），non-GAAP 归母净利润为95.02 亿元（YoY+26.7%、QoQ- 0.3%）。毛利率同比提升至64.1%（YoY+2.0pct、QoQ-1.0pct），销售费用率15.7%（YoY+8.3pct、 QoQ+22.5pct）、研发费用率16.0%（YoY-5.1pct、QoQ+2.5pct）、管理费用率4.1%（YoY-2.2pct、 QoQ+8.4pct）。 2 、游戏业务： 202 ...

Group 1: Performance Overview - The company maintained a "Buy" rating, reporting a robust Q3 performance with revenue of 28.4 billion yuan (up 8.2% YoY, up 1.7% QoQ) and net profit of 8.6 billion yuan (up 31.8% YoY, up 0.2% QoQ) [1] - Gross margin for Q3 was 64.1% (up 1.2 percentage points YoY), and net margin was 31.0% (up 5.4 percentage points YoY), driven by gains from stock investments and lower foreign exchange losses [1] - The company expects net profit for 2025-2027 to be 35.7 billion, 38.3 billion, and 42.9 billion yuan respectively, with current PE ratios of 16.6, 15.5, and 13.8 times [1] Group 2: Gaming and New Releases - Revenue from games and related services reached 23.3 billion yuan (up 11.8% YoY, up 2.3% QoQ), with growth attributed to titles like "Dream of the Red Chamber" and new releases [1] - The peak concurrent online users for "Dream of the Red Chamber" reached 3.58 million, showcasing the company's long-term operational strength [1] - The overseas product lineup is expanding, with "Fate: Stars" topping iOS download charts in multiple regions and "Yanyun Sixteen Sounds" achieving over 2 million players in 24 hours [1] Group 3: AI and Revenue Growth - Cloud Music reported Q3 revenue of 1.96 billion yuan, with a gross margin increase of 2.6 percentage points to 35.4%, driven by the launch of "AI Tuning Master" [2] - Youdao's revenue for Q3 was 1.63 billion yuan, primarily from online marketing services, with a YoY growth exceeding 40% [2] - AI-driven subscription service revenue reached approximately 100 million yuan, marking a historical high with over 40% YoY growth [2]

2025 年 11 月 23 日 公司研究 评级：增持(维持) 研究所： | 证券分析师: | | --- | | | 证券分析师： 陈梦竹 S0350521090003 chenmz@ghzq.com.cn 证券分析师： 尹芮 S0350522110001 yinr@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 游戏长线运营能力突出，递延收入高增为后续业 绩释放奠定基础 ——网易-S（9999.HK）2025Q3 财报点评 最近一年走势 | 相对恒生指数表现 | | | 2025/11/21 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 表现 | 1M | 3M | 12M | | 网易-S | -14.8% | 0.5% | 53.6% | | 恒生指数 | -3.1% | 0.5% | 28.7% | | 市场数据 | 2025/11/21 | | --- | --- | | 当前价格（港元） | 204.60 | | 52 周价格区间（港元） | 129.40-248.00 | | 总市值（百万港元） | 647,761.84 | | 流通市值（百万港元） | 647,761.84 ...

Q3游戏及相关增值服务收入233.3亿元，低于一致预期2.3%，同比增长11.8%，其中在线游戏收入232.4亿 元。1）国内游戏流水展现韧性，《梦幻西游》电脑版Q3以来连续四次刷新PCU纪录至358万人，验证公司 长线运营能力。《蛋仔派对》《燕云十六声》内容更新带动国内手游端流水回归正增长。2）新游戏储备 持续释放，《命运：群星》带动海外手游流水增长，《无限大》《遗忘之海》等新游储备充足。3）全球 化加速落地，新游《命运：崛起》登顶欧美多地区市场iOS下载榜，11月《逆水寒》手游和《燕云十六 声》全球发行。此外，暴雪游戏回归中国市场表现亮眼，进一步丰富产品矩阵。 坚定长期投资战略，持续回馈股东价值 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 报告摘要 业绩点评： 25Q3公司实现营收283.6亿元，同比增长8.2%，低 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Insights - The company's Q3 2025 revenue reached 28.36 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.2%, which was below Bloomberg consensus expectations of 2.96%, primarily due to product launch timing and revenue recognition delays [1] - Deferred revenue surged to 19.47 billion yuan in Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 25.3%, significantly exceeding consensus expectations by 41%, indicating strong player willingness to pay during new game launches [1] - The company is focused on long-term investment strategies and shareholder value, with a strong cash flow performance and a cash reserve of 153.2 billion yuan [3] Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company forecasts revenues of 114.5 billion yuan, 123.6 billion yuan, and 132.2 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with Non-GAAP net profit estimates of 39 billion yuan, 41.4 billion yuan, and 44.5 billion yuan for the same years [4][9]

Core Insights - The gaming sector showed strength on November 21, with the gaming ETF (159869) experiencing a near 1% increase, and notable gains from stocks like Fuchun Co. and Giant Network [1] - NetEase reported Q3 2025 earnings, revealing a net income of 28.4 billion yuan and a net profit of 9.5 billion yuan, with gaming revenue reaching 23.3 billion yuan [1] - The collaboration between "Delta Action" and "Counter-Strike: Future" is set to enhance player engagement and collectible value [1] Group 1 - The gaming ETF (159869) reached a product scale of 11.077 billion yuan as of November 20, allowing investors to easily invest in leading A-share gaming companies [1] - NetEase's classic product "Fantasy Westward Journey" achieved a record high in concurrent users, while new games like "Fate: Stars" topped the iOS download charts in 19 regions on launch day [1] - The gaming sector is expected to benefit from AI, content, and commercialization model transformations, with a focus on top gaming companies exploring AI and gaming integration [2] Group 2 - Major products such as "Honor of Kings" and "Delta Action" are anticipated to strengthen their market position through frequent content updates [2] - The gaming ETF (159869) tracks the Zhongzheng Animation and Gaming Index, reflecting the overall performance of A-share listed companies in the animation and gaming industry [2]

公司3Q25《梦幻西游》PC及手游、《蛋仔派对》等产品暑期内表现良好，体现公司长青游戏运营能 力。公司也在业绩会表示会把更多资源倾斜给长青项目，同时会给有创新力的团队更多机会。 关注全球化能力验证及新游节奏 新游《命运：群星》8月28日/10月16日分别在海外和中国市场发行，游戏入选亦2025TGA最佳移动游戏 提名。《燕云十六声》、《逆水寒》手游分别于11月14/7日在全球发行，其中《燕云十六声》上线首日 玩家规模超200万，登陆Steam全球游戏畅销榜Top4。新游方面，公司公告表示《遗忘之海》将于2026 年上线，同时储备有《无限大》《归唐》等产品。该行建议关注网易本土团队全球化能力升级，及重点 新游进展。 3Q25业绩 公司3Q25收入同增8%至284亿元，Non-GAAP归母净利润同增27%至95亿元，公司3Q25每股分红0.114 美元(0.57美元/ADS);同时宣布目前在运行的回购计划(不超过50亿美元)有效期延长至2029年1月，该计 划截至3Q25末已回购共20亿美元。此外，公司本季度实现投资收益13.8亿元增厚利润，相应抵消营销费 用开支增加对利润端的影响。 游戏及增值服务收入同增12% ...

Group 1 - The game "Jiumu Zhi Ye" has surpassed 500,000 pre-registrations, indicating strong player interest and effective promotional efforts [1] - The game is set to officially launch on December 18, generating significant attention within the gaming community [1] Group 2 - The official announcement of a collaboration between "Delta Action" and "Counter-Strike: Future" is expected to enhance player engagement and add collectible value [2] - "Counter-Strike: Future" is anticipated to reveal a major event soon, which could positively impact the parent company's stock performance if the game launches successfully in 2026 [2] Group 3 - NetEase reported a Q3 net income of 284 billion yuan, with 233 billion yuan coming from gaming and related services [3] - The classic game "Dream of the Westward Journey" has reached a new peak in concurrent users, while new titles have shown strong initial performance in various markets [3] - Continuous investment in content updates and innovation is necessary for long-term success, especially in a competitive international market [3]