[Table_Main] 行业研究|可选消费|媒体Ⅱ 证券研究报告 媒体Ⅱ行业周报、月报 2025 年 08 月 25 日 [Table_Title] 可灵 Q2 营收超 2.5 亿，DeepSeek- V3.1 发布 ——传媒行业周报 [Table_Summary] 报告要点： 市场表现 周度涨跌情况（2025.8.16-2025.8.22，下同）：传媒行业（申万）上涨 5.17%，排名行业第 6 名，同期沪深 300 涨 4.18%，上证指数涨 3.49%， 深证成指涨 4.57%，创业板指涨 5.85%，恒生科技指数涨 1.89%。本 周，果麦文化、顺网科技、昆仑万维、智度股份和东方明珠表现较优， 恒生科技成分股中传媒行业阅文集团（周涨幅 9.35%）、网易-S（周涨 幅 2.50%）和腾讯控股（周涨幅 1.35%）表现较好。 行业重点数据及动态更新 AI 应用：最近一周（8.17-8.23）Deepseek/豆包/夸克/腾讯元宝七麦 数据预估 ios 端下载量分别为 34.98/209.57/77.01/85.26 万次，环比 分别-8.88%/+0.76%/+18.89%/-32.76%，豆包周度下 ...

Company Research - China Hongqiao (1378, Buy): Integrated cost advantages are significant, with a large buyback reflecting confidence. The company achieved revenue of 81.039 billion RMB in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 10.1%[11] - NetEase (NTES.US/9999.HK, Buy): Deferred revenue grew by 25% year-on-year, driven by updates in both new and existing game content[14] - Xtep International (1368, Buy): H1 2025 profit increased by 21.5%, with professional sports business maintaining rapid growth[21] Financial Performance - China Hongqiao's gross profit margin improved by 0.6 percentage points to 25.2%, benefiting from energy structure optimization and low-carbon technology[6] - NetEase's GAAP net profit reached 8.6 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 27.3%[14] - Xtep's revenue grew by 7.1% to 6.84 billion RMB, with the professional sports segment increasing by 32.5%[21] Market Outlook - The global electrolytic aluminum market is in a tight balance, with prices expected to remain between 20,600-21,300 RMB/ton in H2 2025[7] - China Hongqiao's target price is set at 29.0 HKD, indicating a potential upside of 24% from the current price[9] - Xtep's target price is 7.36 HKD, reflecting a 19.8% upside potential[25]

Core Viewpoint - The company's 2Q25 performance met expectations but slightly fell short of market forecasts, with revenue growth of 9% year-on-year to 27.9 billion yuan and Non-GAAP net profit increasing by 22% to 9.5 billion yuan [1][2] Revenue and Growth - 2Q25 revenue reached 27.9 billion yuan, aligning with the company's expectations (27.6 billion yuan) but below Bloomberg's consensus (28.4 billion yuan) [1] - Online gaming revenue grew by 15% year-on-year, driven by titles such as "Identity V," "Yanyun," and "Marvel Showdown," along with some licensed games [1] - The flagship product "Fantasy Westward Journey" mobile game achieved a new quarterly revenue high in 2Q25 [1] Cost and Profitability - Gross margin for 2Q25 was 65%, showing slight improvements from 1Q25 (64%) and 2Q24 (63%), primarily due to increased margins in gaming and VAS businesses [2] - Sales expense ratio in 2Q25 recovered to 13%, up from 9% in 1Q25, indicating a faster recovery than market expectations [2] Future Outlook - The company plans to launch key new mobile games, including "Destiny: Stars" on August 28, with a strong pipeline of diverse products for the coming years [2] - The flagship products continue to perform well, with "Identity V" and "Fantasy Westward Journey" maintaining strong positions in the iOS sales charts [2] Valuation and Forecast - The company maintains its profit forecast, with current stock prices reflecting a valuation of 16x for Hong Kong and 15x for US stocks for 25/26 years Non-GAAP EPS [3] - The target price is set at 263 HKD and 169 USD, indicating an upside potential of 27% for Hong Kong stocks and 25% for US stocks [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for NetEase (NTES US) with a target price of $153.19, reflecting a 17.9x PE for the year 2025 [7][27]. Core Insights - NetEase's total revenue for Q2 2025 increased by 9% year-on-year to 27.9 billion RMB, slightly below consensus expectations by 1% [1][2]. - Adjusted net profit attributable to shareholders grew by 22% year-on-year to 9.53 billion RMB, aligning with consensus expectations [1][2]. - The gaming segment's revenue showed a 15% year-on-year increase to 22.1 billion RMB, although it was slightly below expectations [2][3]. - The company has a robust pipeline of new games, including "Destiny: Stars" and "Diablo II" remastered, which are expected to drive future growth [1][4][13]. Revenue and Profitability - Q2 gaming and value-added services revenue rose by 14% year-on-year to 22.8 billion RMB, with gaming revenue specifically increasing by 15% [2][3]. - Deferred revenue for Q2 exceeded expectations, decreasing by 4% quarter-on-quarter to 17 billion RMB [2]. - The gross margin for gaming and value-added services improved by 1.4 percentage points to 70.2% [2][12]. Game Development and Market Position - The company launched nine new games in May 2025, with significant titles in the pipeline, including "Destiny: Stars" and "Diablo II" remastered [3][4][13]. - The online peak for "Fantasy Westward Journey" reached 2.93 million users, marking a historical high [3]. - The mobile gaming segment is expected to see a recovery due to a low base in the second half of the year, with anticipated growth driven by summer activities and new releases [4][23]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 have been slightly adjusted downwards, with total revenue expected to be 115.5 billion RMB in 2025, reflecting a 0.9% decrease [6][23]. - Adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been revised to 38.9 billion RMB, 43 billion RMB, and 48 billion RMB respectively [6][23]. - The adjusted operating profit margin is projected to be 35.8% for Q2 2025, indicating a healthy profitability outlook [24].

Core Insights - ChinaJoy remains a significant event in the gaming industry, attracting large crowds and showcasing new products despite some criticisms about its decline over the years [1][2] - The presence of popular Korean Coser Yasal and other influencers highlights the growing trend of integrating cosplay into gaming events, enhancing audience engagement [2][4] - The game "Red Desert" is positioned as a potential breakout hit, showcasing high-quality gameplay and innovative technology [6] - Major companies like Tencent and Sony continue to dominate the event with large booths and popular game titles, indicating their strong market presence [18][19][11] - The increasing focus on AI-driven hardware and immersive experiences reflects a shift in the gaming industry towards technology integration [24][27][30] Group 1 - ChinaJoy has been held for 22 years and remains a key event in the interactive entertainment sector, attracting significant attendance [1] - The event featured long queues for popular games, such as "Shadow Blade Zero," indicating high demand and engagement from attendees [11] - The absence of major players like MiHoYo and Bilibili at this year's event suggests a strategic shift towards hosting their own events [8][9] Group 2 - The participation of Microsoft CEO Phil Spencer at ChinaJoy signifies the event's growing international influence and importance in the gaming market [21][23] - Traditional gaming companies continue to utilize classic marketing strategies, such as stage shows and influencer appearances, to attract crowds [14] - The emergence of AI-driven products and immersive experiences at the event indicates a trend towards blending gaming with advanced technology [24][30]

Core Insights - The 22nd ChinaJoy has seen a significant increase in attendance and enthusiasm compared to last year, indicating a strong recovery in the interactive entertainment industry [1][2][4] - The event has evolved from a simple gaming exhibition to a comprehensive "technology + entertainment" fair, showcasing a wide range of digital entertainment sectors [2][4] Industry Performance - The domestic gaming market achieved a record sales revenue of 168 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, marking a year-on-year growth of 14.08% [4] - The number of gaming users reached approximately 679 million, reflecting a growth of 0.72% year-on-year, also a historical high [4] Exhibitor Highlights - Major gaming companies such as Tencent, NetEase, and Giant Network showcased multiple new products, with Tencent occupying nearly half of the N4 hall with 17 games [5][6] - NetEase presented 45 games under the theme "Challenge! My Passion Partner," while Century Huatong featured 13 games and an immersive "Game+Lab" experience [5] New Game Showcases - Notable new titles include Tencent's global premiere of "Runeterra: League of Legends Card Battle" and several unreleased games from Century Huatong, attracting significant visitor interest [7] - The event also highlighted classic IP innovations, such as Tencent's "Dungeon & Fighter" series, showcasing the integration of technology and gameplay [7] Industry Trends and Insights - Industry leaders discussed the need to bridge the gap between high performance and value perception, emphasizing the importance of cultural depth and intellectual property protection [8] - The focus on technological innovation, such as AI capabilities, is seen as a key driver for enhancing productivity and creativity within the gaming sector [9]

Core Viewpoint - The 2025 ChinaJoy will be held from August 1 to August 4 in Shanghai, showcasing a significant number of exhibitors and events focused on digital interactive entertainment and gaming industry advancements [1][10]. Exhibition Aspects: Major Works and Technological Innovations - The theme for this year's ChinaJoy is "Gathering What You Love," with 743 companies registered to participate, including 237 foreign enterprises from 37 countries, representing 31.8% of total exhibitors [10][11]. - The BTOC Interactive Entertainment Hall will feature over 283 companies, while the BTOB Business Negotiation Hall will host more than 460 companies, with foreign enterprises making up 45.2% of the latter [11]. - Notable exhibitors include Tencent, NetEase, and Perfect World, showcasing popular games and new releases, with many offering on-site play experiences [13][15][16]. Conference Aspects: Industry Leaders and Global Collaboration - The event will host several key conferences, including the China International Digital Entertainment Industry Conference (CDEC) and the China Game Developers Conference (CGDC), featuring hundreds of industry leaders and experts [19][20]. - CDEC will focus on new directions for industry development, with over 100 industry leaders expected to participate [19]. Event Activities: Engaging Competitions and Performances - The Cosplay Super League will cover 12 regions with nearly 30,000 participants, while the National Dance Group Ceremony will feature over 300 competitors [21]. Highlights of the Exhibition - The event will emphasize AI technology innovation and new consumer experiences, including a "Creator Zone" aimed at engaging younger audiences [22][23]. - The international presence is expected to increase, with foreign exhibitors making up 46.5% of the BTOB Business Negotiation Hall, marking a historical high [25]. Safety Measures: Ensuring a Secure Environment - A comprehensive safety management system will be implemented, including content review processes and on-site management protocols to ensure a safe and orderly event [31][33]. Ticketing Information: Early Bird Pricing - Early bird tickets for ChinaJoy will be available through various platforms starting July 2, with different phases for ticket sales [35].

Group 1 - The gaming industry is recognized as a significant part of the digital cultural industry and is positioned as an important engine for economic growth, contributing to service consumption and cultural potential release [1][3] - The 2025 ChinaJoy will take place from August 1 to August 4 in Shanghai, with over 743 companies registered to participate, including 237 foreign enterprises from 37 countries and regions, accounting for 31.8% of total participants [1][3] - Major companies like Tencent Games, NetEase Games, and Perfect World are actively preparing to showcase their products, including over 40 existing games and several new titles [3] Group 2 - This year's ChinaJoy will focus on AI technology innovation and new consumption scenarios, featuring a variety of technological products in the smart hardware pavilion and introducing a "smart entertainment robot" exhibit [3] - The event will also host the ChinaJoy AIGC Conference and the inaugural "Dragon Cup" global AI gaming and application innovation competition in collaboration with Century Huatong [3]

Group 1 - Daiwa forecasts that NetEase's gaming business growth momentum will strengthen, driven by a robust product line of new games and the resilience of traditional games [1] - Based on higher gaming revenue projections, Daiwa has raised NetEase's earnings per share forecast for 2025 to 2027 by 2% to 5%, reiterating a "Buy" rating and increasing the 12-month target price from HKD 210 to HKD 235 [1] - NetEase showcased upcoming games at its annual gaming day, including titles like "Marvel Secret Wars" (expected in H2 2025, not yet licensed) and "Fate: Stars" (approved in May 2025) [1] Group 2 - The rising proportion of PC and console games is easing NetEase's profit margin performance, with domestic PC games offering higher gross margins due to lower platform fees [2] - The growth of cross-platform and international games is expected to cause fluctuations in profit margins, but overall profitability should remain stable through strict cost and resource management [2] - Marketing expenditures are projected to rise from Q1 2025 levels, with a renewed focus on brand building in the coming quarters [2]

Core Insights - The National Press and Publication Administration issued approval for 144 game titles in May 2025, including 130 domestic and 14 imported games [1] - Notable games receiving approval include Perfect World's "Yihuan" and NetEase's "Destiny: Stars" [1][4] - Perfect World's "Yihuan" has gained significant attention, with over 10 million views on Bilibili and 2.48 million reservations on TapTap [1][4] Group 1: Domestic Games - A total of 130 domestic games received approval, with key products from listed companies such as Shanghai Shulong's "Dragon Valley: Remake" and Baidu's "Greedy Snake Battle 2" [1] - Perfect World's "Yihuan" is highlighted as a potential turnaround product for the company, being the first urban supernatural open-world RPG in China [4] - The game's recruitment video has surpassed 5 million views, indicating strong interest [4] Group 2: Imported Games - 14 imported games were approved, including NetEase's "Destiny: Stars," which is the first mobile game based on the Bungie IP [4] - "Destiny: Stars" retains the series' world view and includes classic gameplay elements along with new features like Rogue mode [4] - Other notable imported titles include "Rainbow Island: Adventure" and "Eternal Tree Song: Genesis" from listed companies [4] Group 3: Changes in Game Approvals - Tencent's "Yuanmeng Star" received a new client version approval, while Blizzard's "Diablo II" had its operational unit changed, indicating a potential reconciliation between NetEase and Blizzard [5][8] - The approval for "Diablo II" marks a significant milestone for the classic ARPG, which has sold over 15 million copies globally since its release in 2000 [8]