智通财经APP获悉，中信证券发布研报称，近期，上交所发布《商业火箭企业适用科创板第五套上市标 准指引》，标志着商业火箭企业登陆资本市场的通道正式打通、标准全面明确。在政策对"承担国家任 务、参与国家工程项目""可重复使用技术""行业地位"的强调之下，头部民营商业火箭企业IPO进程或将 提速。商业火箭作为商业航天的"运载底座"，其产业化进程将直接带动卫星制造、地面设备、空间应用 等上下游环节的需求爆发。 中信证券主要观点如下： 事件： 2025年12月26日，上交所发布《商业火箭企业适用科创板第五套上市标准指引》(下称《指引》)，标志 着商业火箭企业登陆资本市场的通道正式打通、标准全面明确。作为科创板"科创成长层"制度创新的关 键落地举措，《指引》精准匹配商业火箭产业高研发投入、长周期回报的特性，既为优质未盈利企业提 供了融资的支撑，也为资本市场划定了清晰的投资锚点。 以精确标准筛选优质硬科技企业，破解产业融资瓶颈。 该行认为，此次政策设计或将精准破解此前商业火箭企业融资困境，并与商业航天司的设立、《推进商 业航天高质量安全发展行动计划(2025—2027年)》的颁布形成商业航天发展政策合力。 产业层面，政策或 ...

中信证券研报称，近期，DR001逐步下探，距离利率走廊下沿只剩5bps，意味着在下一次降息之前，资 金利率继续下探的空间有限。另一方面，结合央行2025年四季度货政例会的表述，"防范资金空转"暂时 不再强调，资金利率抬升概率也不大，预计后续资金利率将维持低位运行。 ...

只余最后三个交易日，2025年即将落下帷幕。 本周，上证指数延续上周实现"八连涨"；中国ETF总规模突破6万亿再创历史新高；离岸人民币一度"破7 "……接连不断的 利好之下，各大券商也从不同视角给出对后市的看法。 2025年的行情将如何收官?2026年又将是哪些领域独占鳌头?请看本周十大券商策略，各大券商给出的最新观点。 | | 十大券商策略 | | --- | --- | | 中信证券 | 从创新高的ETF看跨年品种选择 | | 国泰海通 | 跨越,远望又新峰 | | 兴业证券 | 人民币"破7"后,行业如何配置? | | 东吴证券 | A股2026年十大预测 | | 中泰证券 | 如何看待本周市场持续上涨? | | 国金证券 | 新的主线浮出水面 | | 华西证券 | 岁末年初多头势力聚集,抢跑"春季躁动"行情 | | 中国银河 | A股或迎接跨年"小躁动"行情 | | 开源证券 | 8连阳后看本轮春季躁动的变化 | | 浙商证券 | 防挖坑、不追高、逢低配 | 中信证券：从创新高的ETF看跨年品种选择 360个行业/主题ETF当中，39个在12月创了新高。在有共识度的品种当中，老品种是通信和有色相关ET ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is expected to experience a spring rally driven by liquidity, policy expectations, and structural opportunities, with a focus on sectors like AI, commercial aerospace, and non-bank financials [5][10][12]. Group 1: Market Trends and Predictions - 39 out of 360 industry/theme ETFs reached new highs in December, with communication and non-ferrous metals being traditional favorites, while new themes like commercial aerospace are gaining traction [3]. - The A-share market is showing signs of a spring rally, supported by liquidity and positive policy expectations, with a focus on sectors such as technology and advanced manufacturing [5][10]. - The market is expected to maintain a high risk appetite due to favorable conditions, including a weak dollar and the upcoming Chinese New Year and Two Sessions [11][16]. Group 2: Sector Focus and Investment Opportunities - Key sectors to watch include AI, commercial aerospace, and non-ferrous metals, which are expected to benefit from structural changes and increased demand [10][12]. - The manufacturing sector, particularly in chemicals and engineering machinery, is showing signs of recovery and is expected to benefit from the shift in global competition [3][4]. - Non-bank financials, including insurance and brokerage firms, are positioned to benefit from the anticipated capital inflows and improved asset returns [9][12]. Group 3: Currency and Economic Factors - The appreciation of the RMB is expected to lower import costs and enhance domestic purchasing power, benefiting sectors reliant on imports and domestic consumption [7][9]. - The potential for significant capital inflows due to RMB appreciation could lead to a revaluation of Chinese assets, creating a favorable environment for investment [7][9]. - The overall economic environment is improving, with expectations of continued liquidity support and a stable policy backdrop, which is conducive to market growth [5][10].

Economic Growth - The economy is expected to achieve a growth rate of around 5%, with nominal and real growth rates converging [2][20] - Actual growth is showing a "front high and back low" pattern rather than a "U-shaped" recovery [20] Fiscal Policy - The broad fiscal expenditure is better than last year, with the deficit rate raised to 4% and a debt relief plan of 10 trillion yuan to ease local fiscal pressure [3][4] - The government report confirms a deficit of 5.66 trillion yuan and a debt replacement scale of 10 trillion yuan, with significant increases in education and social security spending [4][21] Monetary Policy - The monetary policy remains moderately loose, with potential for more significant rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions compared to 2024 [5][22] - A 0.5 percentage point reserve requirement cut in May released approximately 1 trillion yuan in liquidity, and the yuan appreciated instead of depreciating [5][22] Credit Cycle - M1 growth turned positive, reaching 4.9% in November, but the social financing growth did not follow the predicted "two ends low, middle high" pattern [7][24] - The actual social financing growth showed a "front high and steady" trend, with an 8.5% growth in November [24] International Relations - Economic disturbances primarily stem from U.S.-China relations, but macro policies have effectively mitigated impacts, with increasing pragmatism in China-Europe relations [8][25] - Cooperation among global southern countries is gaining momentum, evidenced by various agreements and initiatives [8][25] Exchange Rate - The prediction of the yuan remaining in a weak range of 7.3-7.5 was completely incorrect, as the yuan appreciated throughout the year due to strong economic resilience and unexpected export performance [10][27] Export Situation - External demand slowdown and tariff pressures led to a negative export growth in October, but overall performance was stronger than expected, with a 5.4% growth from January to November [12][29] Real Estate Market - Core areas in first-tier cities have stabilized, and new first-tier cities are expected to stop declining by mid-2025, although recent data shows some instability in housing prices [13][31] Domestic Demand Expansion - Policies aimed at boosting consumption and improving livelihoods are in place, but the actual growth in retail sales fell short of the 5% target, with a total growth of 4.0% from January to November [15][32] State-Owned Enterprise Reform - The implementation of market value assessments and increased mergers and acquisitions led by state-owned enterprises has been confirmed, with significant investments in traditional and emerging industries [16][33]

丨证券研究报告丨 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 行业研究丨专题报告丨多元金融 [Table_Title] 2026 为何重视券商投行拐点及科创板跟投？ 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 券商投行业务经历了 2022-2024 三年收缩后，2025 年迎来了向上拐点，业务量及收入均显著 提升。同时受科创板行情回暖影响，2025 年券商科创板跟投收益大幅改善。展望 2026 年，随 着市场交投及权益自营基数走高，传统经纪及自营收入弹性减弱背景下，投行承销收入及跟投 收益有望成为券商业绩的重要边际增量。看好龙头券商有望以资源、规模优势持续巩固竞争优 势，推荐国泰海通、中信证券、中金公司。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 吴一凡 戴永飞 SAC：S0490519080007 SAC：S0490524070001 SFC：BUV596 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 [Table_Title2] 2026 为何重视券商投行拐点及科创板跟投？ [Table_Summary2] 券商投行业务经历三年收紧周期后，迎来向上修复拐点 券商投行业务经历了 2022-2024 ...

Electronic and 2025 年 12 月 28 日 看好 相关研究 《保险公司资产负债管理即将迈入全新阶 -非银金融行业周报 (2025/12/15- EG --- 2025/12/19)》 2025/12/21 《头部非银机构监管红利有望释放 -- 非 银金融行业周报 (2025/12/8- 2025/12/12)》 2025/12/14 《券商板块信心提振，补涨逻辑有望逐步 兑现 -- 非银金融行业周报 (2025/12/1- 2025/12/5)》 2025/12/07 《高弹性标签助力板块"破圈"，看好资负 两端改善趋势 ——2026 年保险行业策略 报告》 2025/11/18 《证券行业 2026 年投资策略:权益浪潮 下的券商机遇：财富扩容,国际增效》 2025/11/17 证券分析师 罗钻辉 A0230523090004 luozh@swsresearch.com 孙冀齐 A0230523110001 sunjg@swsresearch.com 金黎丹 A0230525060004 jinld@swsresearch.com 联系人 罗钻辉 A0230523090004 luozh ...

证券研究报告·行业跟踪周报·非银金融 非银金融行业跟踪周报 春季躁动行情启动，看好保险"开门红"表 现 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 2025 年 12 月 28 日 证券分析师 孙婷 执业证书：S0600524120001 sunt@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 罗宇康 执业证书：S0600525090002 luoyk@dwzq.com.cn 行业走势 -17% -13% -9% -5% -1% 3% 7% 11% 15% 19% 2024/12/30 2025/4/29 2025/8/27 2025/12/25 非银金融 沪深300 相关研究 《保险行业 11 月保费：产寿单月保费 增速均有改善，继续看好寿险开门红 表现》 2025-12-27 《保险资负管理新规征求意见；继续 看好保险股》 2025-12-21 东吴证券研究所 1 / 15 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 ◼ 非银行金融子行业近期表现：最近 5 个交易日（2025 年 12 月 22 日-2025 年 12 月 26 日）非银金融各子板块中多元金融与保险行业跑赢沪深 300 指 ...

Core Insights - In December, 39 out of 360 industry/theme ETFs reached new highs, primarily in the communication, non-ferrous metals, and military (aerospace) sectors, indicating strong market consensus on these areas [2][11] - Established sectors like communication and non-ferrous metals are seen as core investment themes, while emerging sectors such as commercial aerospace are gaining traction amid market volatility [1][3] Group 1: Performance of ETFs - The communication ETFs saw an average increase of 10% since October, with an annual average increase of 91.5% [2][12] - Non-ferrous metal ETFs experienced an average increase of 20.1% since October, with an annual average increase of 95.2% [2][12] - Military and aerospace ETFs had an average increase of 18.7% since October, with satellite ETFs rising by an average of 34.5% [2][12] Group 2: Emerging Investment Themes - Commercial aerospace is viewed as an active investment choice during market fluctuations, similar to previous low-altitude themes, driven by narratives around US-China space infrastructure competition [3][4] - The commercial aerospace sector, while promising, does not match the scale of humanoid robotics or low-altitude economies, indicating a more modest growth potential [4][14] Group 3: Under-the-Radar Sectors - Sectors like chemicals and engineering machinery are quietly rising and have reached new annual highs, reflecting China's manufacturing competitiveness and pricing power [5][15] - These sectors are characterized by low media attention and fragmented industry discussions, making them susceptible to being overlooked despite their potential for profit margin improvement [5][15] Group 4: Anti-Inflation Trends - Sectors related to anti-inflation, such as new energy and steel, are showing signs of recovery, with market sensitivity to supply dynamics increasing [6][16] - Recent supply chain disruptions in the new energy sector have led to positive stock price reactions, indicating market expectations for tangible supply reductions [6][16] Group 5: Investment Strategy - The current market strategy emphasizes structural opportunities in a volatile market, focusing on sectors with low heat and concentration but increasing attention and potential for long-term ROE improvement, such as chemicals, engineering machinery, and new energy [7][17] - The strategy also includes monitoring the trend of RMB appreciation, with sectors like brokerage and insurance being positioned as both offensive and defensive choices [7][17]

行 业 及 产 业 非银金融 2025 年 12 月 28 日 相关研究 《保险公司资产负债管理即将迈入全新阶 段——非银金融行业周报（2025/12/15- 2025/12/19）》 2025/12/21 《头部非银机构监管红利有望释放——非 银金融行业周报（2025/12/8- 2025/12/12）》 2025/12/14 《券商板块信心提振，补涨逻辑有望逐步 兑现——非银金融行业周报（2025/12/1- 2025/12/5）》 2025/12/07 《高弹性标签助力板块"破圈"，看好资负 两端改善趋势——2026 年保险行业策略 报告》 2025/11/18 《证券行业 2026 年投资策略：权益浪潮 下的券商机遇：财富扩容，国际增效》 2025/11/17 证券分析师 罗钻辉 A0230523090004 luozh@swsresearch.com 孙冀齐 A0230523110001 sunjq@swsresearch.com 金黎丹 A0230525060004 jinld@swsresearch.com 联系人 罗钻辉 A0230523090004 luozh@swsresearch.com ...