Core Viewpoint - The Northbound Stock Connect funds have shown increased trading activity in the A-share market, with significant holdings and trading volumes reported for the fourth quarter of 2025 [2][10]. Group 1: Northbound Stock Connect Holdings - As of the end of Q4 2025, Northbound Stock Connect funds held a total of 4,014 securities, including stocks and ETFs, with overall holdings remaining relatively stable [4][5]. - Notably, Northbound funds held over 1 billion shares in 213 stocks, and in 37 stocks, holdings exceeded 5 billion shares. Key stocks with holdings over 10 billion shares include BOE Technology Group, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, Zijin Mining, Agricultural Bank of China, and others [5][6]. Group 2: Increased Holdings - During Q4 2025, Northbound Stock Connect funds increased their holdings in over 1,600 stocks, with more than 1,000 stocks seeing an increase of over 1 million shares. Significant increases were noted in stocks such as China Aluminum, Weichai Power, and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, with increases exceeding 10 million shares in several cases [7][8]. Group 3: Trading Activity - The trading activity of Northbound Stock Connect has been notably active, with trading volumes exceeding 300 billion yuan for four consecutive trading days, reaching a peak of 369.6 billion yuan on January 9, 2026, marking the highest level since September 2025 [10]. - Cumulatively, since the establishment of the mutual market access mechanism, the total trading volume of Northbound Stock Connect has surpassed 200 trillion yuan, with 2025's total trading volume reaching 50.33 trillion yuan, a growth of over 40% compared to 2024 [11].

证券时报•数据宝统计显示，三一重工今日收盘价为22.28元，上涨3.97%，日换手率为1.30%，成交额为 24.44亿元，全天主力资金净流入1.25亿元，近5日该股累计上涨5.44%，近5日资金合计净流入2.40亿 元。 两融数据显示，该股最新融资余额为17.69亿元，近5日减少2497.04万元，降幅为1.39%。（数据宝） 三一重工1月9日大宗交易平台共发生2笔成交，合计成交量311.19万股，成交金额6864.75万元。成交价 格均为22.06元，相对今日收盘价折价0.99%。从参与大宗交易营业部来看，机构专用席位共出现在2笔 成交的买方或卖方营业部中，合计成交金额为6864.75万元，净买入6864.75万元。 进一步统计，近3个月内该股累计发生4笔大宗交易，合计成交金额为1.32亿元。 1月9日三一重工大宗交易一览 | 成交量 | 成交金额 | 成交价格 | 相对当日 收盘折溢价 | 买方营业部 | 卖方营业部 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | （万股） | （万元） | （元） | （%） | | | | 232.19 | 5122.01 | 2 ...

香港联交所最新资料显示，1月6日，摩根大通增持三一重工（600031）(06031)152.62万股，每股作价 22.5908港元，总金额约为3447.81万港元。增持后最新持股数目约为7957.53万股，最新持股比例为 11.04%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley has increased its stake in Sany Heavy Industry (06031) by purchasing 1.5262 million shares at a price of HKD 22.5908 per share, totaling approximately HKD 34.4781 million, raising its total holdings to about 79.5753 million shares, which represents a 11.04% ownership stake [1] Summary by Category Company Actions - Morgan Stanley acquired 1.5262 million shares of Sany Heavy Industry on January 6 [1] - The purchase price per share was HKD 22.5908, leading to a total investment of approximately HKD 34.4781 million [1] Ownership Structure - Following the acquisition, Morgan Stanley's total shareholding in Sany Heavy Industry is approximately 79.5753 million shares [1] - The new ownership percentage stands at 11.04% [1]

Group 1 - On January 9, SANY Heavy Industry executed a block trade of 3.1119 million shares, with a transaction amount of 68.6475 million yuan, accounting for 2.73% of the total transaction volume for the day [1] - The transaction price was 22.06 yuan, which represents a discount of 0.99% compared to the market closing price of 22.28 yuan [1] - The block trade was conducted by institutional investors, indicating a strategic move within the market [2]

Market Performance - The engineering machinery sector increased by 2.52% on January 9, with Shaoyang Hydraulic leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4120.43, up 0.92%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14120.15, up 1.15% [1] Individual Stock Performance - Shaoyang Hydraulic (301079) closed at 58.45, up 17.84% with a trading volume of 407,900 shares and a transaction value of 2.382 billion [1] - Hailun Zhe (300201) closed at 7.46, up 9.54% with a trading volume of 982,800 shares and a transaction value of 715 million [1] - Sany Heavy Industry (600031) closed at 22.28, up 3.97% with a trading volume of 1,104,200 shares and a transaction value of 2.444 billion [1] - XCMG Machinery (000425) closed at 11.80, up 3.69% with a trading volume of 947,300 shares and a transaction value of 1.116 billion [1] Capital Flow Analysis - The engineering machinery sector saw a net inflow of 127 million from institutional investors, while retail investors experienced a net inflow of 56.445 million [2] - The sector had a net outflow of 183 million from speculative funds [2] Detailed Capital Flow for Key Stocks - Sany Heavy Industry (600031) had a net inflow of 88.856 million from institutional investors, but a net outflow of 49.819 million from speculative funds [3] - Hailun Zhe (300201) saw a net inflow of 41.161 million from institutional investors, with a small net outflow from retail investors [3] - XCMG Machinery (000425) had a net inflow of 37.036 million from institutional investors, but also faced outflows from both speculative and retail investors [3]

Group 1 - The report emphasizes the growth potential driven by AI and the reversal of the anti-involution cycle in the manufacturing sector [1] - Key companies highlighted include Yokogawa Electric, Zhejiang Rongtai, Shanghai Yanpu, Taotao Vehicle, Sany Heavy Industry, Zoomlion, XCMG, and others [2][3] - The core investment strategy focuses on sectors such as machinery, lithium battery equipment, and intelligent robotics, with a positive outlook for 2026 [4][6] Group 2 - The machinery sector is expected to see a strong start in 2026, with continued focus on technological growth in areas like embodied intelligence and commercial aerospace [4] - The report notes that the lithium battery equipment sector has crossed a turning point, with demand driven by energy storage and overseas power batteries, projecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 19% from 2024 to 2027 [6][10] - The report predicts significant profit growth for key companies, with expected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 being 0.13 billion, 0.84 billion, and 1.90 billion respectively, indicating a CAGR of approximately 290% [11][17]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [6] Core Views - The report highlights that the demand for mining machinery is expected to remain strong due to high global copper prices, which have risen over 30% since the beginning of the year, reaching nearly $12,000 per ton [2][5] - The export of excavators is becoming a key growth driver, with December export growth accelerating by 8 percentage points month-on-month, particularly in large excavators, which saw a year-on-year growth of over 60% [2][4] - The domestic market for excavators is anticipated to gradually recover, supported by major infrastructure projects and a potential revival in the real estate sector [4][5] Summary by Sections Excavator Sales and Exports - In December 2025, excavator sales reached 23,000 units, with domestic sales of 10,000 units (up 11% year-on-year) and exports of 13,000 units (up 27% year-on-year) [1] - The export of second-hand machinery has also seen significant growth, with year-on-year increases of 69% and 80% in October and November, respectively, indicating effective clearance of existing equipment [3] Domestic Market Recovery - The report notes that the domestic sales of small and medium excavators improved in December, while large excavators continued to show resilience despite a slowdown in growth [4] - Key infrastructure projects, such as those along the Yarlung Tsangpo River, are expected to support the recovery of domestic demand for construction machinery [4][5] Recommendations for Key Companies - The report recommends several companies for investment, including SANY Heavy Industry, XCMG, Liugong, and Hengli Hydraulic, all of which are expected to benefit from the ongoing demand in both domestic and international markets [8][17]

——2025年港股IPO市场回顾暨2026年展望 | 证券分析师：彭文玉 | | A0230517080001 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 朱敏 | A0230524050004 | | | 任奕璇 | A0230525050002 | | 研究支持: | 陈榕杰 | A0230125080001 | | 联系人: | 陈榕杰 | A0230125080001 | | 2026.01.09 | | | 摘要 证券研究报告 风起潮未落 www.swsresearch.com 2 ◼ 2025年港股IPO融资规模领跑全球，新股上市表现强劲，破发率降至历史低位。供给端，港股上市制度持续优化，叠加外地公司赴港进程加 速，使港股成为企业融资及二次上市的重要选择；定价端，二级市场估值上行拓宽了新股上涨空间，一二级价差走阔为新股首日表现创造了 条件。在此背景下，2025年港股打新收益显著回暖，稳获一手（500-2000万港元）对应的表观收益率回升至0.57%～1.04%，明显高于 2021-2024年水平，基石投资者平均解禁收益率64%，约89%项目录得正收益。展望2026年，预期港股IPO投融资两 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call on the Engineering Machinery Industry Industry Overview - The domestic engineering machinery market is experiencing a rebound, primarily driven by replacement demand, with a notable increase in the share of small excavators. It is expected that annual excavator sales will double from 100,000 units to 200,000-300,000 units over the next 3-5 years [1][4] - Non-excavator categories such as cranes and concrete equipment are following a similar logic, having seen significant declines previously and currently being at low levels with an existing replacement cycle. The growth in excavators is anticipated to drive growth in non-excavator categories, marking the beginning of an upward cycle in the domestic engineering machinery sector [1][5] Core Insights and Arguments - The overseas market has become a major source of revenue and profit for engineering machinery companies, with companies like SANY and XCMG reporting overseas revenue contributions of 40%-60% and profit contributions of 80%-100% [1][6] - The global engineering machinery market is projected to show cyclical recovery in 2026, with strong growth in markets such as Russia, Indonesia, the Middle East, South America, and Africa, while the US and European markets are also beginning to recover, aided by interest rate cuts stimulating fixed asset investment cycles [1][8][9] - Greenfield investments are highly correlated with engineering machinery growth, leading by about three years. In 2023, greenfield investments reached over $700 billion, indicating a significant increase in demand for engineering machinery in 2025 and 2026 [1][10] Domestic Market Dynamics - Despite a decline in working hours, excavator sales have turned positive due to replacement demand. As of the end of 2023, the excavator ownership in China is approximately 2 million units, with construction accounting for 75% of the demand. If real estate demand declines by 80%, the need for excavators would still be around 178,000 units annually [4] - The current replacement cycle in China is estimated at 8-10 years, but as the market matures, it may shorten to 4-5 years, similar to mature markets in North America and Europe, leading to more frequent replacement cycles and increased new machine sales [4] Non-Excavator Categories - Non-excavator categories are expected to grow as excavator sales increase, with companies reporting positive trends in these segments. The overall upward cycle for domestic engineering machinery is just beginning [5] Overseas Market Importance - The overseas market is crucial for the engineering machinery industry, with significant revenue and profit contributions from international sales. The focus of investment should be on overseas markets rather than solely on domestic performance [6] Regional Performance - Data from January to November 2026 shows positive trends across major regions, with Russia experiencing nearly 24% growth in November and the US and Western Europe also showing recovery. China's exports to North America and Western Europe have seen growth rates of 25% and 28%, respectively [7] Profitability and Future Outlook - Chinese manufacturers have a competitive price advantage in the mid-to-small tonnage segment, achieving over 80% market share in key markets like Russia and Indonesia. The profitability in these regions remains strong, with net profit margins exceeding 10% in Russia and 16% in Indonesia [12][14] - The engineering machinery sector is expected to see significant profit growth due to low domestic market bases, increasing overseas market cycles, and improved operational leverage [16][22] Investment Attractiveness - The engineering machinery sector is currently highly attractive for investment, with the domestic market at a low point and strong replacement demand, alongside favorable overseas market conditions and high profitability potential. Companies like SANY, XCMG, Zoomlion, LiuGong, and Hengli Hydraulic are recommended for investment consideration [22]