Core Views - The report maintains a positive long-term outlook on gold, copper, and aluminum, emphasizing the importance of strategic metals [1][3] - In H1 2025, domestic economic indicators show signs of bottoming out, with improvements in real estate construction and a gradual shift towards new economic drivers [4][8] - The global economic landscape is being reshaped by fluctuating interest rate expectations from the Federal Reserve and the impacts of trade wars, leading to significant changes in resource sectors [4][8] Investment Strategies - **Main Line 1: Expansion on the Denominator Side - Gold and Silver**: Focus on gold and silver, with specific attention to the performance of gold stocks and the potential for silver due to its high price ratio to gold [4][5] - **Main Line 2: Improvement on the Numerator Side - Aluminum, Copper, Tin**: Anticipate continued high profitability in aluminum due to falling costs, while remaining cautious of potential short-term demand weakness [4][7] - **Main Line 3: Key Strategic Metals**: Highlighting opportunities in rare earths and other strategic metals amid US-China tensions, particularly in six key strategic metals [4][7] - **Main Line 4: Supply-Side Disruptions from Anti-Competition**: The report suggests that supply-side constraints in sectors like lithium carbonate may present attractive bottom-fishing opportunities [4][7] Market Performance - The CRB metal spot index increased by 7.08% from the beginning of 2025 to June 30, 2025, indicating a general upward trend in metal prices [9][10] - Gold prices surged by 23.93% during the same period, driven by expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut [12][14] - Industrial metals, particularly tin and copper, saw significant price increases of 19.91% and 15.59% respectively, while zinc prices fell by 5.55% [16][19] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Global copper inventories saw a significant reduction, with LME copper stocks decreasing by 66.17% by June 30, 2025 [21][69] - The report anticipates limited growth in global copper supply due to insufficient capital expenditure in mining, projecting only a 2.3% increase in global copper production in 2025 [62][64] - The refined copper market is expected to remain slightly short, with a projected demand growth of 7.1% for 2025, supporting a high price center for copper [69] Sector Performance - The non-ferrous metal sector outperformed the broader market, with a cumulative increase of 19.17% from January to June 2025, compared to a 5.6% rise in the Shanghai Composite Index [38][40] - Sub-sectors such as tungsten, gold, and rare earths performed particularly well, with respective increases of 39.64%, 33.57%, and 31.88% [42][44] - Companies closely tied to resource price fluctuations, particularly in gold and rare earths, showed strong performance, while midstream processing companies faced challenges due to weak downstream demand [44]

7月18日连板股分析：连板股晋级率持续下降 稀土永磁板块全线走强 今日共45股涨停，连板股总数13只，其中三连板及以上个股4只，上一交易日共16只连板股，连板股晋级率25%（不含ST股、退市股）。个股方面，虽然三 大指数集体上涨，创业板指盘中创年内新高，但短线情绪降温，连板股晋级率持续下降，除上纬新材外，昨日连板股中仅三只晋级，其中兰生股份、海星股 份盘中均多次开板，显示分歧加剧。板块方面，稀土永磁板块全线走强，北方稀土大涨9.87%成交额超147亿列两市第一，华宏科技反包涨停走出6天5板， 东方锆业、中色股份等涨停；锂电板块盘中异动，锂矿、盐湖提锂等上游分支领涨，久吾高科20CM涨停，金圆股份、国机通用、盛新锂能涨停。 | 连板数 | 晋级率 | | 2025-7-18 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 7讲8 | 1/1=100% | 上纬新材 (机器人) | | | 5进6 | 1/2=50% | 兰生股份(参股券商) | | | 2进3 | 2/11=18% | 天宸股份 (光伏+医院) | | | 1讲2 | 9/42=21% | 北化股份 (军工) | | | | | 海 ...

Market Overview - The market experienced fluctuations on July 18, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a new closing high for the year, while the ChiNext Index hit a new high before retreating. The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.5%, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.37%, and the ChiNext Index gained 0.34% [2] - The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 1.57 trillion yuan, an increase of 31.7 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [2] Sector Performance - Sectors such as rare earth permanent magnets, lithium mining, non-ferrous metals, and coal saw significant gains, while sectors like gaming, photovoltaics, CPO, and consumer electronics experienced declines [2] - The banking sector, which had declined for three consecutive days, stabilized and rebounded, contributing to the overall market performance [5] Investment Trends - Institutional funds showed consistent large-scale buying, while funds from major players, retail investors, and others exhibited noticeable outflows, with a slight return of funds at the end of the trading day [8] - The report from Xiangcai Securities suggests that the market will maintain a "slow bull" trend, with long-term funds focusing on dividend-related sectors such as banking and insurance [13] Rare Earth Sector Insights - The rare earth permanent magnet sector experienced notable activity, driven by three main positive factors: 1. The National Security Department's announcement to cut illegal export channels for rare earth-related items, enhancing resource and national security [17] 2. The discovery of a new rare earth mineral named "Ned Yellow River" in Inner Mongolia [18] 3. The increasing demand for rare earths in humanoid robots, which is a significant application area [19] - Companies in the rare earth sector, such as Huahong Technology and Northern Rare Earth, reported substantial profit increases, with Northern Rare Earth expecting a net profit growth of 1883% to 2015% year-on-year for the first half of the year [19]

Core Viewpoint - The stock market showed a collective rise on July 18, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3534.48 points, up 0.5%, indicating a positive market sentiment despite mixed performances across sectors [1]. Market Performance - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.57 trillion yuan, an increase of 31.7 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1]. - A total of 2600 stocks rose while over 2500 stocks fell, reflecting a divergence in stock performance [1]. Sector Analysis - The rare earth permanent magnet sector experienced significant gains, with notable stocks such as Jiuwu Gaoke hitting a 20% limit up, and Huaxin Environmental Protection rising over 15% [3][4]. - The lithium extraction sector also saw a rise of 3.30%, while the gaming sector faced declines, with stocks like Ice River Network dropping over 4% [4][6]. - The innovative pharmaceutical sector surged in the afternoon, with stocks like Borui Pharmaceutical increasing over 14% [5]. Capital Flow - Main capital flows showed a net inflow into sectors such as non-ferrous metals, basic chemicals, and computers, while there was a net outflow from electronics, biomedicine, and light manufacturing sectors [8]. - Specific stocks that attracted significant net inflows included Northern Rare Earth (20.63 billion yuan), China National Petroleum Capital (10.4 billion yuan), and Wanhua Chemical (6.89 billion yuan) [9]. - Conversely, stocks like Changshan Beiming, Shenghong Technology, and Hengbao shares faced substantial net outflows of 11.87 billion yuan, 11 billion yuan, and 8.08 billion yuan respectively [10]. Institutional Insights - Jianghai Securities noted that market hotspots are dispersed, potentially leading to a structural market trend, while the overall index uptrend remains intact despite significant individual stock performance variations [12]. - CITIC Securities expressed optimism regarding investment opportunities in the non-bank sector, citing macroeconomic stabilization and liquidity release as positive factors for market activity [12].

Group 1 - The small metal sector has shown significant activity, with a collective increase of over 3% in stock prices, particularly for companies like Dongfang Zirconium and Haotong Technology, which saw gains exceeding 5% [1] - Supply constraints are evident due to domestic export quota management for antimony, bismuth, germanium, and tungsten, alongside transportation disruptions in Myanmar, leading to a global supply gap exceeding 30% [1] - Demand for small metals is rising, driven by applications in new energy vehicles, energy storage, military high-temperature alloys, and semiconductor packaging materials, with a notable increase in consumption of cobalt and nickel sulfate [1] Group 2 - Small metals have been classified as "strategic resources" by authorities, with export controls on gallium and germanium in 2024 and additional controls on tungsten, bismuth, and antimony in 2025, leading to increased scarcity premiums [1] - Leading companies are expected to report substantial profit growth, with Northern Rare Earth projected to see a more than 18-fold increase in net profit attributable to shareholders in the first half of 2025 [1] - Securities firms express optimism, highlighting that the relaxation of export controls could lead to a convergence of domestic and international prices, benefiting the sector through both valuation and profit increases [2][3] Group 3 - Dongfang Zirconium specializes in the research, production, and sales of zirconium series products, including zirconium silicate and zirconium oxide [2] - Haotong Technology focuses on precious metal recovery and related products, with key offerings including platinum, palladium, and rhodium [2] - Shenghe Resources produces rare earth concentrates and various rare earth products, contributing to the small metal supply chain [3] Group 4 - Guiyan Platinum's product range includes various precious metal compounds such as platinum, palladium, and rhodium [3] - Xianglu Tungsten's main products consist of tungsten oxide, tungsten powder, and tungsten carbide [3] - Tin Industry Co. engages in the exploration, mining, and processing of tin, zinc, copper, and indium, offering a wide array of products [3] Group 5 - Dongfang Tantalum is involved in the research, production, and sales of rare metals like tantalum and niobium [4] - Baotai Co. is recognized as China's largest specialized producer of titanium-based rare metal materials, holding over 40% market share [4]

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a rebound today, with all three major indices closing higher. The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.5%, the Shenzhen Component increased by 0.37%, and the ChiNext Index gained 0.34%. The total trading volume reached 1.571 trillion, an increase of 31.7 billion compared to the previous trading day [1] Sector Performance 1. Lithium Mining Surge - The lithium mining sector saw significant gains due to three main factors: 1. Cangge Mining announced that its potassium fertilizer company received a notice to immediately stop lithium resource development, impacting lithium supply [2] 2. The main contract for lithium carbonate on the Dalian Commodity Exchange rose over 4%, surpassing 70,000 yuan [2] 3. The global demand for lithium, driven by the booming electric vehicle industry and the rapid development of energy storage, continues to grow [2] 2. Rare Earths Rally - The rare earth sector experienced a surge due to two key reasons: 1. Several rare earth permanent magnet companies reported significant profit increases, with Huahong Technology expecting a net profit growth of 3047%-3722% year-on-year, and Northern Rare Earth forecasting a net profit increase of 1883%-2015% [3] 2. A new rare earth mineral named "Neodymium Yellow River" was discovered in Inner Mongolia, which is expected to positively impact the rare earth sector [3] 3. Coal and Nonferrous Metals Rise - The coal and nonferrous metals sectors saw substantial increases due to: 1. High summer temperatures leading to increased electricity demand, boosting coal consumption for thermal power generation [4] 2. The CCTD reference price for thermal coal in the Bohai Rim region rose again, with a week-on-week increase of 14, 19, and 18 yuan per ton [5] 3. Rainfall affecting coal production, with a 3.6% decrease in output and a 2.6% reduction in total inventory week-on-week [5] 4. Protests at overseas mines exacerbating resource supply concerns, contributing to price increases in metals like tin and zinc [5] 4. AI Sector Activity - The AI sector was active today, primarily due to OpenAI's technical live stream showcasing the new ChatGPT agent, which possesses autonomous thinking and action capabilities [6]

Core Viewpoint - The rare earth permanent magnet sector in the A-share market has shown strong performance, with several companies experiencing significant stock price increases and ETFs tracking rare earth indices also seeing gains [1][5]. Group 1: Market Performance - The rare earth permanent magnet sector has seen notable stock price increases, with Jiuwu Gaoke rising nearly 12%, and companies like Dongfang Zhaoye, Huahong Technology, and Zhongse Co. reaching their daily limit [1]. - Several rare earth ETFs have also performed well, with gains of 3.82% for the Guangfa Rare Metal ETF and 3.73% for the E Fund Rare Earth ETF [1][3]. Group 2: Price Expectations and Market Dynamics - Northern Rare Earth expressed optimism regarding future rare earth prices, attributing price movements to supply-demand dynamics and recent policy impacts [5]. - The rare earth sector has seen a cumulative increase of over 25% since May 28, driven by easing trade tensions between China and the U.S. and positive earnings expectations for the sector [5][6]. Group 3: Export Regulations and Price Impact - Recent developments indicate a potential easing of export controls on rare earths, with China approving export licenses for several manufacturers, which is expected to positively influence market prices [6][7]. - Analysts predict that the relaxation of export controls could lead to a significant increase in rare earth prices, benefiting companies in the sector [6][7]. Group 4: Company Performance and Projections - Northern Rare Earth anticipates a substantial increase in net profit for the first half of 2025, projecting a profit of 900 million to 960 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 1882.54% to 2014.71% [6]. - Companies in the rare earth permanent magnet industry, such as Huahong Technology, are expected to report significant profit increases, with projections of up to 3722% year-on-year growth [7].

沪深两市今日成交额合计15710.55亿元，北方稀土成交额居首 金十数据7月18日讯，7月18日，沪深两市全天成交额合计15710.55亿元，较上一日增量316.8亿元。其 中，沪市成交额为6436.28亿元（上一交易日为6097.91亿元），成交量为4.93亿手（上一交易日为4.72亿 手）；深市成交额为9274.27亿元（上一交易日为9295.84亿元），成交量为6.45亿手（上一交易日为6.36 亿手）。北方稀土成交额居首，为147.04亿元。其次是新易盛、中际旭创、胜宏科技、常山北明，成交 额分别为119.75亿元、112.99亿元、90.49亿元、79.32亿元。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The electronic sector experienced a significant net outflow of over 8.5 billion yuan, while other sectors like non-ferrous metals and diversified finance saw net inflows [1][3]. Group 1: Sector Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector had a net inflow of 3.7 billion yuan, with a net inflow rate of 4.23% [2]. - The small metals sector recorded a net inflow of 0.83 billion yuan, with a net inflow rate of 6.76% [2]. - The diversified finance sector saw a net inflow of 0.807 billion yuan, with a net inflow rate of 4.23% [2]. - The electronic sector had the highest net outflow at -8.548 billion yuan, with a net outflow rate of -5.16% [3]. - The computer sector experienced a net outflow of -4.874 billion yuan, with a net outflow rate of -2.98% [3]. Group 2: Individual Stock Performance - Northern Rare Earth topped the list with a net inflow of 1.84 billion yuan, reflecting a net inflow rate of 13.91% [4]. - Sinopec Capital followed with a net inflow of 1.036 billion yuan, with a net inflow rate of 14.58% [4]. - Wanhu Chemical had a net inflow of 0.708 billion yuan, with a net inflow rate of 11.46% [4]. - Changshan Beiming faced the largest net outflow at -1.344 billion yuan, with a net outflow rate of -18.75% [5]. - Shenghong Technology had a net outflow of -0.865 billion yuan, with a net outflow rate of -11.39% [5].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market showed strong performance on July 18, with the ChiNext Index reaching an 8-month high, driven by significant gains in rare earth permanent magnet stocks and other sectors [2][4][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - The A-share market indices rose, with the ChiNext Index breaking its February high, reaching 2296.91 points, marking the highest level in 8 months [4]. - The overall market saw strong gains in sectors such as non-ferrous metals, steel, coal, and basic chemicals, while public utilities, media, and light manufacturing sectors experienced declines [4]. Group 2: Rare Earth Sector - The rare earth permanent magnet concept surged, with stocks like Jiu Wu High-Tech and Northern Rare Earth hitting the daily limit, reflecting strong investor interest [4][7]. - A new rare earth mineral named "Ned Yellow River" was discovered, which has been approved by the International Mineralogical Association, potentially boosting the sector's profile [7]. - Several rare earth companies reported significant profit increases, with Huahong Technology expecting a net profit growth of 3047% to 3722% year-on-year for the first half of the year, and Northern Rare Earth projecting a growth of 1883% to 2015% [7]. Group 3: Individual Stock Highlights - The stock of Shangwei New Materials hit the daily limit for the eighth consecutive trading day, with a cumulative increase of 330.21% since July [9][11]. - The company announced a significant share transfer agreement that could change its controlling shareholder, pending approval from the shareholders' meeting and regulatory bodies [11][12]. - Haixing Co. also saw its stock hit the limit for the third consecutive trading day, indicating strong market interest [14].