Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metal industry index in China has shown strong performance, with significant increases in various stocks, driven by a government plan aimed at stabilizing growth in the sector and rising gold prices reaching historical highs [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Performance - As of September 29, 2025, the non-ferrous metal industry index (399395) rose by 3.10%, with notable stock increases including Vanadium Titanium Co. (000629) up 10.00%, Xingye Silver Tin (000426) up 9.11%, and Tongling Nonferrous Metals (000630) up 7.77% [1]. - The non-ferrous ETF fund (159880) also increased by 3.07%, with the latest price reported at 1.61 yuan [1]. Group 2: Government Initiatives - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, along with eight other departments, issued the "Non-Ferrous Metal Industry Stabilization Growth Work Plan (2025-2026)" to support the sector [1]. Group 3: Commodity Insights - East Wu Securities forecasts that copper prices will remain strong due to anticipated supply contractions and potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, while aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate amid weak demand [1]. - The gold market is influenced by a shift in the Federal Reserve's stance during the global central bank conference in August, with expectations of continued inflation and declining nominal interest rates, suggesting a broad potential for precious metals [1]. Group 4: ETF Composition - The non-ferrous metal industry index includes 50 prominent securities based on size and liquidity, reflecting the overall performance of listed companies in the sector [2]. - As of August 29, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the index accounted for 50.35% of the total, including Zijin Mining (601899) and Northern Rare Earth (600111) [2].

Core Insights - The article highlights the strong performance of the non-ferrous metal sector, particularly the increase in the price of copper and aluminum, driven by supply disruptions and demand recovery [1][2] Group 1: Market Performance - The non-ferrous metal ETF showed a stable performance with a 1.5% increase in price and a transaction volume of 1.4755 million yuan, bringing the fund's total size to 303 million yuan [1] - Key stocks such as Baiyin Nonferrous, Guiyan Platinum, and Xingye Silver Tin saw significant gains of 3.6%, 3.23%, and 2.92% respectively, while Shenghe Resources experienced a decline of 1.41% [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The Grasberg copper mine, the second largest globally, has halted production due to an accident, leading Freeport to project a significant decrease in copper sales by Q4 2025 and a potential 35% drop in production in 2026, exacerbating supply tightness [1] - The aluminum sector is witnessing a positive trend with successful technological advancements in aluminum alloy materials for automotive applications, recognized by high-end clients like BMW and Mercedes, which is expected to drive industry transformation [1] Group 3: Price Outlook - Tianfeng Securities indicates a bullish sentiment in the copper market, with prices expected to continue rising due to supply-demand dynamics and a favorable outlook for aluminum prices supported by inventory reductions and seasonal demand [1][2] - The cobalt sector is facing increased prices due to export bans and quota policies from the Democratic Republic of Congo, leading to a tightening of raw material supply [2]

Core Viewpoint - Inner Mongolia Baogang Steel Union Co., Ltd. has announced a tender for the procurement of electrical spare parts, with a budget of 1.4783 million yuan, indicating ongoing investment in infrastructure and equipment [1] Group 1 - The project is titled "Tender Announcement for the Procurement of Current Transformers and Other Electrical Spare Parts for Baogang Co. in August 2025" [1] - The budget for the procurement is set at 1.4783 million yuan [1] - Baogang Steel is partially owned by Northern Rare Earth, holding a 0.58% stake in the company [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on copper, aluminum, and precious metals, indicating a high level of market activity and potential for growth in these sectors [13][16]. Core Insights - Copper prices have surged due to unexpected production cuts, leading to significant supply shortages and rapid price increases [13]. - Aluminum is showing signs of recovery with inventory levels decreasing and downstream processing rates improving, suggesting a potential for sustained high profitability [15]. - Precious metals, particularly gold, are expected to rise further due to market anticipation of continuous interest rate cuts [16]. Summary by Sections Copper - This week, LME copper price increased by 2.09% to $10,205.00 per ton, while Shanghai copper rose by 3.20% to 82,500 yuan per ton [14]. - Supply side: The import copper concentrate processing fee index rose to -$40.36 per ton; national copper inventory decreased by 4,400 tons to 140,100 tons [14]. - Consumption side: Brass rod enterprises' operating rate was 48.49%, showing a slight increase of 0.71 percentage points [14]. Aluminum - This week, LME aluminum price decreased by 1.01% to $2,649.00 per ton, and Shanghai aluminum fell by 0.24% to 20,700 yuan per ton [15]. - Supply side: Electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory in major consumption areas dropped by 21,000 tons to 617,000 tons [15]. - Demand side: Downstream processing enterprises' operating rate increased by 0.8 percentage points to 63.0%, driven by pre-holiday stocking [15]. Precious Metals - This week, COMEX gold price rose by 0.23% to $3,789.80 per ounce, with SPDR gold holdings increasing by 5.15 tons to 1,005.72 tons [16]. - The market is experiencing fluctuations due to U.S. tariffs and escalating geopolitical risks, contributing to a volatile trading environment [16]. Rare Earths - The price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide decreased, while the export volume of magnetic materials saw significant growth [32]. - Domestic rare earth separation enterprises are preparing for production halts, indicating potential supply constraints [32]. Antimony - Antimony ingot price is at 174,900 yuan per ton, showing a decrease of 2.26% [33]. - The demand for antimony is expected to recover as the photovoltaic glass market stabilizes [33]. Molybdenum - Molybdenum concentrate price is 4,450 yuan per ton, with a slight decrease of 0.45% [34]. - The demand for molybdenum is expected to rise as major steel mills resume procurement [34]. Tin - Tin ingot price increased by 1.74% to 273,700 yuan per ton, with inventory decreasing by 6.14% [35]. - The supply-demand dynamics are favorable, supported by strong inventory levels and demand from the semiconductor sector [35].

Group 1: Rare Metal ETF Performance - The Rare Metal ETF has a turnover rate of 3.51% and a transaction volume of 87.15 million yuan [3] - As of September 25, the ETF has seen an average daily transaction volume of 208 million yuan over the past month, ranking first among comparable funds [3] - The ETF's scale has increased by 247 million yuan this month, also ranking first among comparable funds [3] - The ETF's shares have grown by 43.5 million shares this month, achieving significant growth and ranking first among comparable funds [3] - Over the past 19 trading days, the ETF has experienced net inflows on 10 days, totaling 423 million yuan [3] - The ETF's net value has increased by 79.68% over the past year [3] - The highest monthly return since inception is 24.02%, with the longest consecutive monthly gains being 4 months and a maximum increase of 58.56% [3] - The average monthly return during rising months is 8.77%, and the ETF has outperformed the benchmark with an annualized return of 5.45% over the past three months [3] Group 2: Silicon Carbide and Rare Metals Market Trends - Silicon carbide prices have risen by 5.7% to 5,600 yuan per ton, reaching a three-month high, while high-purity gallium prices have increased by 1.1% due to recovering demand in the semiconductor sector [4] - The strategic importance of silicon carbide as a core substrate is increasing with its penetration in new energy vehicles, photovoltaic inverters, and 5G base stations [4] - Although short-term price fluctuations are influenced by production capacity release, the long-term outlook for the silicon carbide industry remains positive due to accelerated domestic substitution and increased downstream application [4] - Prices of tungsten and praseodymium-neodymium oxide are also at high levels, indicating a continued structural tightness in resource supply [4] Group 3: Top Holdings in Rare Metal Index - As of August 29, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the China Rare Metal Theme Index include Northern Rare Earth, Luoyang Molybdenum, Salt Lake Industry, Huayou Cobalt, Tianqi Lithium, Ganfeng Lithium, China Rare Earth, Shenghe Resources, Zhongjin Resources, and Xiamen Tungsten, collectively accounting for 57.58% of the index [4]

Group 1 - The rare metal ETF fund has seen a turnover rate of 6.78% with a transaction volume of 11.3956 million yuan, and the average daily transaction volume over the past month is 19.6415 million yuan as of September 25 [3] - The net value of the rare metal ETF fund has increased by 78.35% over the past year, with the highest monthly return since inception being 24.02% and the longest consecutive monthly increase lasting 4 months with a total increase of 57.92% [3] - Supply constraints have led to a significant rise in cobalt prices, with the Democratic Republic of Congo extending its cobalt export ban until October 15, resulting in a nearly 40% increase in cobalt prices this year [3] Group 2 - Bohai Securities indicates that the extension of the cobalt export ban in the Democratic Republic of Congo has caused a significant decline in domestic cobalt raw material imports, with electrolytic cobalt prices recovering to 275,000 yuan per ton from earlier lows [4] - The industry is currently in a destocking phase, and the cobalt supply is expected to remain constrained through 2026-2027, despite steady demand growth in the electric vehicle and energy storage sectors [4] - The top ten weighted stocks in the China Rare Metals Theme Index account for 57.58%, with notable companies including Northern Rare Earth, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Ganfeng Lithium [4] Group 3 - The rare metal ETF fund serves as a good investment tool for investors looking to gain exposure to the rare metals industry [6] - The performance of individual stocks within the rare metals sector varies, with notable increases in stocks like Huayou Cobalt and Tianqi Lithium, while Ganfeng Lithium has seen a slight decline [6]

Core Insights - The small metals sector experienced a rise of 1.03% on September 25, with Zhongkuang Resources leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3853.3, down 0.01%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13445.9, up 0.67% [1] Small Metals Sector Performance - Zhongkuang Resources (002738) closed at 43.49, up 4.32%, with a trading volume of 401,800 shares and a transaction value of 1.754 billion [1] - Xianglu Tungsten Industry (002842) closed at 10.60, up 3.72%, with a trading volume of 280,100 shares [1] - Western Materials (002149) closed at 17.64, up 3.40%, with a trading volume of 218,100 shares and a transaction value of 381 million [1] - Xiamen Tungsten Industry (600549) closed at 28.78, up 2.68%, with a trading volume of 1,570,900 shares and a transaction value of 1.628 billion [1] - Northern Rare Earth (600111) closed at 47.28, up 1.59%, with a trading volume of 1,483,800 shares and a transaction value of 7.025 billion [1] Capital Flow Analysis - The small metals sector saw a net inflow of 478 million from institutional investors, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of 823 million [2][3] - Northern Rare Earth (600111) had a net inflow of 27.7 million from institutional investors, but a net outflow of 360 million from retail investors [3] - Xiamen Tungsten Industry (600549) recorded a net inflow of 126 million from institutional investors, with a significant net outflow of 198 million from retail investors [3]

Group 1: Market Performance - The liquidity of the Rare Earth ETF managed by Jiashi has a turnover rate of 6.47% with a transaction volume of 529 million yuan [3] - Over the past month, the average daily transaction volume of the Rare Earth ETF reached 505 million yuan, ranking first among comparable funds [3] - The fund's scale increased by 1.716 billion yuan in the last month, also ranking first among comparable funds [3] - The number of shares for the Rare Earth ETF increased by 90.5 million shares this month, leading among comparable funds [3] - In the last 18 trading days, the fund attracted a total of 454 million yuan [3] - The net value of the Rare Earth ETF has risen by 105.55% over the past year, placing it in the top 11.10% among index equity funds [3] Group 2: Industry Outlook - The implementation of the "Rare Earth Management Regulations" in October 2024 will strengthen industry control, while the interim measures for total quantity control of rare earth mining and smelting will further tighten supply [4] - Leading companies like Northern Rare Earth will gain enhanced pricing power due to these regulations [4] - The rare earth industry is entering a new era of high-quality and standardized development, driven by growing demand from sectors such as electric vehicles, air conditioning, and consumer electronics [4] - The supply-demand gap for praseodymium and neodymium oxide is expected to reach 5.8% and 4.6% in 2025 and 2026, respectively, indicating a potential upward trend in price [4] - The performance of the rare earth industry chain is expected to improve quarter by quarter in the second half of the year, highlighting strategic allocation value [4] Group 3: Key Stocks - The top ten weighted stocks in the CSI Rare Earth Industry Index account for 62.15% of the index, with Northern Rare Earth and China Rare Earth being the top two [3] - Notable stock performances include Northern Rare Earth with a rise of 2.47% and China Rare Earth with an increase of 1.16% [6] - Investors can also access rare earth investment opportunities through the Rare Earth ETF Jiashi connecting fund (011036) [6]

Group 1 - Freeport announced force majeure due to an Indonesian mining accident, expecting a 4% year-on-year decline in copper sales for Q3 2025, with Q4 nearly stagnant. The global copper increment from the top 18 mines is projected to drop from 430,000 tons to 160,000 tons, exacerbating supply-demand conflicts and driving up copper-related stocks [1] - U.S. Antimony received a $245 million exclusive supply contract from the Pentagon, planning to increase production capacity from 2,000 tons to 6,000 tons, strengthening the supply-demand support logic for the antimony sector and boosting market sentiment [1] - Overproduction of coal in Shanxi and other regions may be restricted by the new Anti-Unfair Competition Law, with tight supply expectations pushing coking coal prices up to 1,700-1,800 yuan per ton [1] Group 2 - As of September 25, the non-ferrous ETF fund (159880.SZ) rose by 2.22%, and its related index, the Guozheng Non-Ferrous Index (399395.SZ), increased by 2.07%. Among major constituent stocks, Northern Copper Industry rose by 10.01%, Luoyang Molybdenum by 9.67%, and Tongling Nonferrous Metals by 8.35% [1] - HuLong Securities noted that in the context of increased macro uncertainty, precious metals maintain a trend of rising volume and price. Their non-ferrous metal industry report indicates that Zijin Mining (601899.SH) received an "overweight" rating, with a projected PE of 15 times for 2025 [1] - According to Everbright Securities' weekly report, cobalt prices have risen across the board, with a week-on-week increase of 1.13% for cobalt sulfate. Additionally, polysilicon prices have risen for two consecutive months, with a week-on-week increase of 4.0% for photovoltaic-grade polysilicon, reflecting changes in the supply-demand structure in certain non-ferrous metal segments [1]

Core Viewpoint - Northern Rare Earth has shown significant stock performance with a year-to-date increase of 124.12%, despite a recent decline in the last five and twenty trading days [1][2]. Company Overview - Northern Rare Earth (China Northern Rare Earth Group High-Tech Co., Ltd.) is located in Baotou, Inner Mongolia, and was established on September 12, 1997. It was listed on September 24, 1997. The company specializes in rare earth raw materials, functional materials, and some terminal application products [1]. - The revenue composition of the company includes 72.25% from rare earth products, 21.39% from trading, 4.51% from environmental products and services, and smaller percentages from other categories [1]. Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, Northern Rare Earth achieved an operating income of 18.866 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 45.24%. The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 931 million yuan, a staggering increase of 1951.52% [2]. - The company has distributed a total of 5.358 billion yuan in dividends since its A-share listing, with 994 million yuan distributed in the last three years [3]. Shareholder Information - As of September 10, 2025, the number of shareholders for Northern Rare Earth was 660,000, a decrease of 8.33% from the previous period. The average number of circulating shares per shareholder increased by 9.09% to 5,477 shares [2]. - The top ten circulating shareholders include significant institutional investors, with Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited holding 139 million shares, an increase of 40.4142 million shares from the previous period [3].