Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (首次) [5] Core Views - The company is expected to maintain a leading growth rate in parcel volume, with the potential for improved profitability due to anti-competitive measures [5][6] - The report highlights that the company's revenue and profit forecasts show a positive trend, with significant growth expected in the coming years [5][6] Financial Summary - **Revenue Forecasts**: - 2023: 57,684 million RMB - 2024: 69,033 million RMB (19.67% YoY growth) - 2025E: 79,932 million RMB (15.79% YoY growth) - 2026E: 91,782 million RMB (14.83% YoY growth) - 2027E: 103,561 million RMB (12.83% YoY growth) [5][7] - **Net Profit Forecasts**: - 2023: 3,723 million RMB - 2024: 4,012 million RMB (7.78% YoY growth) - 2025E: 4,074 million RMB (1.54% YoY growth) - 2026E: 5,081 million RMB (24.72% YoY growth) - 2027E: 6,047 million RMB (19.01% YoY growth) [5][7] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2023: 1.09 RMB - 2024: 1.17 RMB - 2025E: 1.19 RMB - 2026E: 1.49 RMB - 2027E: 1.77 RMB [5][7] - **Valuation Metrics**: - Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratios for 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E are projected at 12.59, 10.10, and 8.48 respectively [5][8] Market Performance - As of July 29, 2025, the closing price of the company's stock is 15.00 RMB, with a total market capitalization of 51,303.39 million RMB [3][4]

Group 1 - The express logistics sector experienced significant gains on July 30, with Shentong Express rising by 7%, YTO Express by 5%, and other companies like Yunda and Huapengfei also seeing increases [1] - Shentong Express, a leading private express company in China, reported a market capitalization of 23.4 billion and a trading volume increase of 5.21% [1] - YTO Express, a comprehensive logistics operator, has a market capitalization of 53.94 billion and focuses on expanding its international express and supply chain services [1] Group 2 - The State Post Bureau emphasized the need for improved industry regulation and the establishment of market rules to combat "involution" competition in the express delivery sector [2] - The Central Financial Committee's recent meeting highlighted the importance of promoting a unified national market and addressing low-price competition among enterprises [2] - The Yiwu Postal Administration announced an increase in the minimum express delivery price by 0.1 RMB to 1.2 RMB, effective July 18 [2] Group 3 - Current price adjustments in the Yiwu region have led to a 0.05 RMB increase per ticket, with expectations for similar measures in the southern grain-producing areas [4] - The express delivery industry is anticipated to see improved pricing and profitability in the fourth quarter, driven by regulatory guidance and a shift towards high-quality development [4] - If regulatory policies continue to be implemented, the industry may transition from price wars to value wars, leading to long-term improvements in express companies' performance [4]

A股早盘快递概念走高，申通快递走出4天2板，圆通速递、韵达股份、东航物流、东杰智能等跟涨。消 息面上，7月29日，国家邮政局召开快递企业座谈会，就依法依规治理行业"内卷式"竞争，强化农村地 区领取快件违规收费等突出问题整治，促进行业高质量发展进行座谈交流。 ...

Core Points - The State Post Bureau held a meeting on July 29 to address "involution" competition and illegal charges for package collection in rural areas, aiming to promote high-quality development in the express delivery industry [1][3] - The meeting emphasized the need for express companies to enhance their awareness of the overall situation and implement the directives from the central government [3][4] - The meeting highlighted the importance of compliance, risk management, and the establishment of a long-term mechanism to ensure stable operations and high-quality development of enterprises [3][4] Industry Development - Since the 18th National Congress, the express delivery industry in China has experienced rapid growth [3] - Express companies are encouraged to innovate their business models and improve the adaptability and sustainability of services in rural areas [3][4] - The meeting called for strengthening the political guidance of party building in the industry to enhance governance and management [3][4] Regulatory Measures - The postal management department is urged to increase regulatory and enforcement efforts to protect the legal rights of consumers and delivery personnel [3][4] - The meeting included discussions among representatives from major express companies such as Zhongtong, Yuantong, Yunda, Shentong, and Jitu, focusing on regulatory issues and suggestions for improvement [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the express delivery industry [8]. Core Insights - The express delivery industry is expected to experience a "de-involution" phase, with significant policy catalysts anticipated in the upcoming months. The transition from the off-peak to peak season is expected to enhance the pricing power of express companies [2][11]. - The pricing increase duration is projected to be between 2 to 4 months, with a price increase of 0.06 to 0.30 yuan per ticket expected during the peak season. The profit per ticket is anticipated to improve by 0.01 to 0.10 yuan in Q4 [2][11]. - The average profit elasticity for e-commerce express delivery is expected to reach double digits, with second-tier express companies showing even more significant profit elasticity [2][11]. Summary by Sections Event Description - The report discusses the recent meeting of the State Post Bureau, which emphasized the need to combat "involution" in the express delivery sector. It addresses three main questions: the timing and sustainability of the current "de-involution," the profit elasticity for core enterprises, and the tools available for this process [6]. Pricing Dynamics - The report analyzes historical pricing trends, indicating that the current "de-involution" phase may be catalyzed by policy changes, with pricing increases expected to last longer than in 2024 but shorter than in 2021. The report references past data to illustrate potential outcomes [11][20]. Profit Elasticity - The report provides a detailed analysis of profit elasticity for major express companies, projecting that if the industry begins to raise prices in August and continues until December, the net profit for companies like Zhongtong, Yunda, and Shentong could reach 95.8 billion, 40.6 billion, and 17.4 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding profit elasticities of 6.5%, 12.7%, and 27.9% [20][21]. Tools for "De-involution" - The report identifies two main strategies for achieving "de-involution": regulatory measures to curb price wars and encouraging mergers and acquisitions among leading companies to optimize competition. The acquisition of Danbird Logistics by Shentong Express is highlighted as a significant step towards improving market dynamics [25][26]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests actively seizing opportunities presented by the "de-involution" phase, recommending companies such as YTO Express, Shentong Express, Zhongtong Express, Jitu Express, and Yunda [21].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the transportation industry [4][6][7]. Core Views - The "anti-involution" policy in the express delivery sector is expected to ease competition, with Shentong Express planning to acquire Dan Niao Logistics [3][54]. - The shipping industry is anticipated to see a bottoming out of oil transportation rates during the summer, with potential upward pressure on rates due to supply constraints and demand changes [1][22][23]. - The aviation sector is experiencing a decline in flight volumes, but the domestic passenger market is expected to continue optimizing supply and demand dynamics through 2025 [2][37][46]. Summary by Sections Shipping Sector - In July, crude oil entered the off-season, leading to a softening of oil freight rates, with expectations for a bottoming out during the summer [1]. - The current supply situation is relatively tight, and marginal changes in demand could significantly impact freight rates [1][22]. - Recommendations include China Merchants Energy and China Merchants Shipping, with a focus on China Merchants South Oil [1]. Aviation Sector - The overall and domestic passenger flight volumes have decreased by 1.5% and 1.4% respectively compared to the previous week, but remain above 2019 levels [2][37]. - The average ticket price for domestic routes has dropped by 8.0% year-on-year, while passenger load factors have improved slightly [2][37]. - Investment recommendations include closely monitoring ticket price performance during the peak summer season, with a focus on China National Aviation, Eastern Airlines, Southern Airlines, and Spring Airlines [2][46]. Express Delivery Sector - The "anti-involution" policy has been implemented to combat excessive competition, with price increases already observed in regions like Yiwu [3][53]. - The introduction of unmanned logistics vehicles is expected to reduce costs significantly for leading companies like SF Express and Zhongtong Express [3][61]. - Investment suggestions include SF Express, Zhongtong Express, YTO Express, and Shentong Express, with a focus on the impact of the "anti-involution" policy [3][63]. Key Company Earnings Forecasts and Investment Ratings - China Merchants Energy, China Merchants Shipping, SF Express, Zhongtong Express, and YTO Express are all rated as "Outperform" [7]. - SF Express is expected to maintain a growth rate of 15-20% over the next two years, with a PE ratio of approximately 20 times in 2025 [3][63]. - China Merchants Shipping reported a 20.1% year-on-year increase in revenue for Q1 2025, indicating strong performance [27].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the express delivery industry [1] Core Insights - The express delivery industry is experiencing a trend of "anti-involution," leading to a revaluation of its value [3] - The report emphasizes the importance of regulatory actions in stabilizing the industry and improving profitability [3] - Short-term price improvements are expected, with potential for further increases during peak seasons [3] Summary by Sections 1. Review of 2021's "Anti-Involution" - In 2021, the express delivery industry saw a significant policy push to protect courier rights, leading to price increases and improved profitability [3][19] - The average price per ticket for the "Tongda" system increased by approximately 0.6 yuan from the low point in August 2021 to January 2022 [3] - By Q4 2021, YTO Express reported a net profit of 1.15 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 202% [3] 2. Current Industry Dynamics - After 2023, the industry has re-entered a phase of price competition due to increased capacity and market share strategies, leading to profitability nearing historical lows [3][39] - The National Postal Administration has clearly opposed "involution-style" competition, indicating a regulatory environment similar to that of 2021 [3][65] - The report suggests monitoring regulatory developments in key production areas like Yiwu and Guangdong for potential price adjustments [3] 3. Short-term and Long-term Outlook - Short-term price improvements are anticipated, particularly in traditionally low-price cities, with potential for broader price increases in peak seasons [3][69] - The report forecasts a shift from price wars to value competition, which could enhance long-term profitability for leading express companies [3][69] - Investment recommendations include focusing on A-shares such as Shentong Express, YTO Express, and Yunda Express, as well as H-shares like Jitu Express and ZTO Express [3] 4. Financial Performance Metrics - In Q1 2025, the net profit per ticket for major companies like Zhongtong, YTO, Yunda, and Shentong fell close to or below historical lows [50] - The report highlights significant cash flow pressures, with some companies experiencing cash flow performance worse than the bottom of 2021 [50] - The report provides elasticity calculations indicating that price increases could significantly enhance profitability for express companies [70]

数据统计显示，沪深300运输业指数近一个月下跌0.29%，近三个月上涨4.58%，年至今上涨0.04%。 金融界7月28日消息，上证指数高开震荡，沪深300运输业指数 (300运输业，L11618)报3882.46点。 从沪深300运输业指数持仓样本的行业来看，铁路运输占比37.56%、快递占比21.76%、航运占比 21.21%、航空运输占比19.47%。 据了解，为反映沪深300指数样本中不同行业公司证券的整体表现，为投资者提供分析工具，将沪深300 指数300只样本按行业分类标准分为11个一级行业、35个二级行业、90余个三级行业及200余个四级行 业。沪深300行业指数系列分别以进入各一级、二级、三级、四级行业的全部证券作为样本编制指数， 形成沪深300行业指数。该指数以2004年12月31日为基日，以1000.0点为基点。 资料显示，指数样本每半年调整一次，样本调整实施时间分别为每年6月和12月的第二个星期五的下一 交易日。权重因子随样本定期调整而调整，调整时间与指数样本定期调整实施时间相同。在下一个定期 调整日前，权重因子一般固定不变。遇临时调整时，当沪深300指数调整样本时，沪深300行业指数样 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the issue of "rounding up" charges in various sectors such as express delivery, parking, and shared services, which has raised public concern regarding fairness and transparency in pricing practices [1][14]. Express Delivery Sector - Several express delivery companies have been reported to engage in unfair "rounding up" practices, where the weight of packages is inflated for charging purposes [2][4]. - For instance, YTO Express marked a 2.7 kg package as 4 kg, increasing the charge by nearly 50%, while Jitu Express charged for a 3 kg weight for a 2.1 kg package [3][4]. - A significant number of express delivery companies (about half) have been found to have similar issues in their weight charging practices [4]. - The new regulations effective from April 1, 2024, stipulate that billing weight must be in kilograms and retain at least one decimal place, making the "rounding up" practices clearly illegal [5][17]. Parking Sector - Parking fees are often charged based on a minimum time unit, leading to situations where even a slight delay results in significantly higher charges [7][10]. - For example, a consumer was charged for 45 minutes despite only using 30 minutes and 7 seconds of parking time, highlighting the unfairness in the billing system [9][11]. - The article notes that this practice is widespread and often seen as a "hidden rule" in many parking facilities [8][10]. Shared Services Sector - Similar "rounding up" practices are observed in shared services like charging stations, where consumers are charged for longer durations than they actually used [12][13]. - A case was mentioned where a consumer was charged for 30 minutes of charging despite only using 5 minutes, which was deemed unreasonable [13][19]. - The article emphasizes that such practices infringe upon consumers' rights to fair transactions as outlined in consumer protection laws [18][20]. Regulatory Response - The National Postal Administration has taken notice of the express delivery sector's "rounding up" practices and has initiated investigations, urging companies to comply with national standards for weight billing [17]. - The article calls for similar scrutiny and reform in the parking and shared services sectors to ensure fair pricing practices [23].

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - **Industry**: Hong Kong/China Transportation & Infrastructure - **Key Companies Mentioned**: J&T, ZTO, Yunda, YTO, STO Core Insights - **Market Performance**: J&T, ZTO, Yunda, YTO, and STO have outperformed market indices by 3-15 percentage points since July 10, 2025, likely due to regulatory calls for "anti-involution" [2] - **Pricing Strategies**: - Market pricing hikes are being considered at a regional level to alleviate near-term pressure on franchisees' profits, but limited financial impact is expected on listed companies as pricing adjustments have not occurred at the franchisor level [6] - Most players plan to increase floor market pricing in Yiwu by RMB 0.05-0.1, but no changes are anticipated at the franchisor level, indicating minimal financial impact on listed companies [6] - A possible price hike in Guangdong is being discussed, but regional actions may not lead to nationwide pricing changes [6] - **Market Share Dynamics**: - Ongoing industry consolidation is expected, albeit in a less aggressive manner. Market share leaders ZTO and YTO are preferred due to their higher probabilities of consolidating market share in a competitive environment [6] Financial Valuation and Risks - **YTO Express Group Co Ltd**: - Valuation derived from probability-weighted DCF scenarios: 10% bull case, 80% base case, 10% bear case. Mild probability of unit profit being worse than expected due to price competition [7] - Key assumptions include a WACC of 10.8% and a terminal growth rate of 2% [7] - **ZTO Express**: - Valuation based on a probability-weighted DCF: 15% bull case, 75% base case, 10% bear case. Mild probability of bear case if significant disruptions occur from new entrants [8] - Key assumptions include a WACC of 13.3% and a terminal growth rate of 3% [9] Risks Identified - **Upside Risks**: - Greater-than-expected market share gains, significant cost reductions, alleviated price competition [11] - **Downside Risks**: - Continued market share loss, intensified industry competition, higher unit costs [12] Additional Notes - **Regulatory Environment**: The focus on "anti-involution" indicates a regulatory push to mitigate over-competition in the industry, which may influence future market dynamics [2] - **Market Sentiment**: Despite a surge in short-term sentiment towards all players, a preference remains for market share leaders ZTO and YTO [6]