Group 1: Metal Sector - China Hongqiao's net profit forecast for 2024 is CNY 223.72 billion, with a PE ratio of 8.14[12] - Hualing Steel's net profit is projected to increase from CNY 20.32 billion in 2024 to CNY 28.54 billion in 2025, with a PE ratio of 19.72[12] - Xiamen Tungsten's net profit is expected to rise from CNY 17.28 billion in 2024 to CNY 21.01 billion in 2025, with a PE ratio of 22.97[12] Group 2: Construction and Transportation - Sichuan Road and Bridge's net profit is forecasted to grow from CNY 72.10 billion in 2024 to CNY 82.86 billion in 2025, with a PE ratio of 10.35[12] - YTO Express's net profit is expected to decrease from CNY 40.12 billion in 2024 to CNY 35.39 billion in 2025, with a PE ratio of 13.03[12] - China Merchants Highway's net profit is projected to be CNY 55 billion in 2025, with a PE ratio of 14.56[12] Group 3: Chemical and Energy Sector - Yara International's net profit is expected to rise from CNY 9.50 billion in 2024 to CNY 17.94 billion in 2025, with a PE ratio of 30.56[12] - Funiu Power's net profit forecast for 2025 is CNY 28.95 billion, with a PE ratio of 9.18[12] - Huajin's net profit is projected to recover to CNY 0.92 billion in 2025 after a loss of CNY 27.95 billion in 2024[12] Group 4: Strategic Metals and New Materials - Xiamen Tungsten's strategic metal segments are expected to contribute 79% to profits in 2024, with a focus on tungsten and rare earths[21] - Zhongcai Technology's special glass fiber is projected to see significant demand growth due to AI hardware requirements, with expected profits of CNY 0.2 billion in 2024[30] - The company anticipates a profit contribution from special glass fiber of CNY 7.2 billion by 2026[30]

Investment Rating - The transportation sector has shown a positive trend with a 3.2% increase in the transportation index, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 1.5% during the week of July 19-25, 2025 [1][12]. Core Insights - The transportation sector's fund holdings increased to 32.5 billion yuan, a 17.0% rise compared to the previous quarter, with a market share of 1.95% [2]. - The express delivery segment saw a significant year-on-year growth of 15.8% in June, with SF Express leading the growth [2]. - The logistics sector is under pressure, particularly in hazardous materials logistics, but there is a push towards smart logistics, with Hai Chen Co. being recommended [3]. - The aviation sector is experiencing a steady recovery, with a 3% increase in domestic passenger volume in June compared to the previous year [4]. - The shipping sector is stabilizing, with the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) increasing by 10.9% week-on-week, indicating a positive trend in dry bulk shipping [5][34]. Summary by Sections Transportation Market Review - The transportation index rose by 3.2%, with the airport sector showing the highest increase of 5.6% [1][12]. Industry Fundamentals Tracking Shipping and Ports - The export container freight index (CCFI) was 1261.35 points, down 3.2% week-on-week and down 40.9% year-on-year [20]. - The domestic container freight index (PDCI) increased by 1.1% week-on-week, indicating a slight recovery in domestic shipping [28]. Aviation and Airports - The average daily flights reached 16,945, a 3.68% increase year-on-year, with domestic flights up by 2.51% [4]. - The introduction of a new ticket purchasing feature on the airline service platform is expected to enhance customer experience [4]. Rail and Road - National highway freight traffic increased by 0.67% week-on-week, with a year-on-year increase of 2.01% [6][76]. - The railway passenger volume in June was 373 million, a 3.61% increase year-on-year [73]. Express Delivery - The express delivery business volume reached 16.87 billion pieces in June, with a notable increase in the market share of SF Express [2][44].

Core Insights - The collaboration between Shenzhen Bus Group, SF Express, and New Stone Technology aims to create an innovative model that integrates public transport, logistics, and autonomous systems, marking a significant step in enhancing urban resource utilization and service efficiency [1][3] Group 1: Collaboration and Innovation - The partnership focuses on utilizing Shenzhen Bus Group's extensive bus station network as efficient supply and transfer hubs for autonomous delivery vehicles, integrating logistics into the public transport framework [2][3] - New Stone Technology provides L4-level autonomous driving technology, which is currently being tested in various districts of Shenzhen to improve last-mile delivery efficiency for SF Express [2][3] Group 2: Operational Efficiency - Shenzhen Bus Group plans to leverage big data and road network knowledge to optimize delivery routes for autonomous vehicles, ensuring safety through integrated monitoring and support systems [3] - As of now, over 300 functional autonomous vehicles are operational in Shenzhen, with ongoing efforts to expand the delivery network and explore collaborative innovation between public transport and logistics [3] Group 3: Broader Applications - Other cities, such as Nanjing and Zhengzhou, are also exploring similar "bus delivery" models to enhance delivery efficiency and reduce costs, with Nanjing successfully implementing a same-day delivery service through public transport [4][5] - In Zhengzhou, SF Express plans to utilize excess bus capacity for urgent deliveries and transform bus stations into multifunctional logistics hubs, enhancing urban logistics efficiency [5]

Core Insights - The report from Guotai Junan indicates that the express delivery industry is expected to maintain a rapid growth rate in 2025, despite a temporary slowdown in growth due to an earlier promotional cycle in June [1] - The industry is experiencing intensified price competition in the first half of 2025, but the State Post Bureau's call to "reduce internal competition" is likely to control the intensity of this competition, promoting long-term high-quality development [1] - The report highlights the importance of focusing on leading companies with more certain growth in performance, particularly in the e-commerce express delivery sector [1] Industry Performance - In June 2025, the total express delivery volume in China reached 16.87 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 15.8%, with a slight month-on-month decline due to the early 618 promotional cycle [1] - For Q2 2025, the total express delivery volume was 50.51 billion pieces, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 17.3% [1] - The trend towards smaller packages and the convenience of e-commerce promotions and returns are driving the growth in express delivery volume, surpassing the State Post Bureau's forecast of over 8% growth for the entire year [1] Company Market Share - The market share of major express delivery companies has increased in Q2 2025, with SF Express, YTO Express, Yunda Express, and Shentong Express achieving market shares of 8.7%, 15.6%, 12.9%, and 12.9% respectively in June 2025 [2] - The CR8 (concentration ratio of the top 8 companies) for the express delivery industry reached 87.0 in the first half of 2025, an increase of 1.7 compared to the previous year, indicating a notable rise in the focus on leading companies [2] Pricing Trends - In June 2025, the express delivery industry revenue grew by 9.0% year-on-year, while the average revenue per package decreased by 5.8% [3] - For Q2 2025, the industry revenue increased by 9.3%, with a 6.8% decline in average revenue per package [3] - The decline in average revenue per package has narrowed both year-on-year and month-on-month, suggesting a moderation in price competition [3] - The State Post Bureau's emphasis on opposing "internal competition" is expected to alleviate pressure on companies and franchisees, promoting a healthier competitive environment in the long term [3]

Key Takeaways from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **China Express** industry, specifically analyzing the performance of major express delivery companies in the Asia Pacific region for **June 2025** [1] Core Insights - **Volume Growth**: - SF Express led the market with a **32% YoY volume growth**, followed by YTO at **19% YoY**. - Both STO and Yunda experienced lower growth rates at **11%** and **7% YoY**, respectively, resulting in a loss of market share of **0.5ppt** and **1.0ppt** [2] - **Revenue Performance**: - SF Express achieved a **14% YoY revenue growth**, outperforming YTO and STO, which recorded **11%** and **10% YoY growth**, respectively. - Yunda's revenue growth slowed significantly to **3% YoY**, down from **9% YoY** for the industry, marking a decline from **7% YoY** in May [3] - **Average Selling Price (ASP)**: - SF's ASP decreased by **13% YoY**, while YTO, Yunda, and STO saw decreases of **7%**, **4%**, and **1%**, respectively. - On a month-over-month basis, SF and STO's ASPs improved by **4%** and **2%**, while YTO and Yunda's ASPs fell to new lows in 2025 [4] Financial Metrics - **June 2025 Financials**: - SF Express: Revenue of **Rmb 19,962 million**, YoY growth of **14.2%**, volume of **1,460 million**, YoY growth of **31.8%**, ASP of **Rmb 13.67** [5] - Yunda: Revenue of **Rmb 4,149 million**, YoY growth of **2.8%**, volume of **2,173 million**, YoY growth of **7.4%**, ASP of **Rmb 1.91** [5] - STO: Revenue of **Rmb 4,341 million**, YoY growth of **10.1%**, volume of **2,184 million**, YoY growth of **11.1%**, ASP of **Rmb 1.99** [5] - YTO: Revenue of **Rmb 5,527 million**, YoY growth of **11.4%**, volume of **2,627 million**, YoY growth of **19.3%**, ASP of **Rmb 2.10** [5] Market Share Dynamics - SF Express's market share increased by **1.1ppt** to **8.7%**, while Yunda's market share decreased by **1.0ppt** to **12.9%**. - STO's market share remained stable at **12.9%**, and YTO's increased by **0.5ppt** to **15.6%** [5] Strategic Insights - SF Express's strong performance is attributed to robust intra-city delivery demand and the implementation of the "Activating Operations" strategy. - The company achieved **10% YoY revenue growth in 1H25**, aligning with its guidance [12] Additional Observations - The report indicates that ZTO and YTO gained a total of **0.7ppt** in market share in **2Q25**, compared to a **0.4ppt** drop in **1Q25**, suggesting a trend of accelerated segment consolidation [12] Conclusion - The express delivery industry in China is experiencing significant shifts, with SF Express maintaining a strong lead in both volume and revenue growth, while Yunda faces challenges in sustaining its market position. The overall market dynamics indicate a consolidation trend among the major players, which could present both opportunities and risks for investors in the sector.

Core Viewpoint - The 2025 International Low Altitude Economy Expo, held in Shanghai, aims to showcase advancements in low altitude economic development and foster collaboration among industry stakeholders [1][12]. Group 1: Event Overview - The expo officially opened on July 23, 2025, at the National Exhibition and Convention Center in Shanghai, covering an area of 60,000 square meters with nearly 300 exhibitors and over 30 forums [1]. - The opening activities included three major events: the Future Air Traffic International Forum, the Low Altitude Economic Infrastructure Development Conference, and the Shanghai Low Altitude Economic Industry Innovation Conference [4][10]. Group 2: Key Participants and Speakers - Notable speakers at the Future Air Traffic International Forum included Dr. Alistair Wood from the Royal Aeronautical Society and representatives from various international aviation authorities [5][6]. - The Low Altitude Economic Infrastructure Development Conference featured prominent figures such as Wang Ruiping, Chairman of the China Civil Airport Association, and Wu Guanghui, Chief Designer of COMAC [8]. Group 3: Exhibitor Highlights - The expo showcased innovative products in the low altitude economy, including drones and electric vertical takeoff and landing aircraft (eVTOL), with participation from companies like DJI and China Postal Express Logistics [12]. - Exhibitors also included traditional general aviation leaders and companies focusing on new materials and technologies, such as China Telecom and China Mobile [12]. Group 4: Market Impact and Opportunities - The event attracted professional visitor groups from 23 countries and regions, facilitating precise order matching and market expansion for exhibitors [14]. - The expo aims to inject new momentum into the low altitude economy by addressing homogenization competition and enhancing brand influence [14]. Group 5: Forum and Conference Activities - A total of 14 forums were held on the opening day, focusing on topics such as low altitude flight service innovation and the annual forum of the Civil Unmanned Aerial Vehicle Industry Technology Innovation Strategic Alliance [16]. - The forums aimed to gather essential elements for low altitude economic development, including finance, talent, technology, standards, and policies [17]. Group 6: Community Engagement and Future Directions - The expo included various public engagement activities, such as the National Aerospace Model Championship and a low altitude carnival, to promote the low altitude economy among the general public [20][23]. - The event is positioned as a bridge between technological advancements and public needs, transitioning the low altitude economy from conceptualization to practical implementation [23].

Investment Rating - Investment recommendation: Outperform the market (maintained) [7] Core Viewpoints - In June, the national express delivery business volume reached 16.87 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 15.8%; express delivery revenue totaled 126.32 billion yuan, up 9.0% year-on-year; the average price per ticket in the industry was 7.49 yuan, down 5.85% year-on-year. Under the "anti-involution" policy's soft constraints, the overall competition intensity in the industry is expected to be controllable, and the price decline in the off-season may stabilize. The current valuation of the sector has returned to a relatively low historical level, providing a sufficient margin of safety, suggesting attention to investment opportunities in the sector under the "anti-involution" policy [4][12]. Summary by Sections Business Volume - In June, the national express delivery business volume reached 16.87 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 15.8%. The growth rate has slowed down due to the earlier start of the 618 promotion, which brought some volume forward to May [9][17]. - In June, SF Express, YTO Express, Yunda Express, and Shentong Express completed business volumes of 1.46 billion, 2.63 billion, 2.17 billion, and 2.18 billion pieces, with year-on-year growth rates of 31.77%, 19.34%, 7.41%, and 11.14% respectively, with SF Express continuing to lead in growth [20]. Ticket Price - The average ticket price in June was 7.49 yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 5.85%, but an increase of 0.24 yuan compared to May. The average ticket price for the first half of the year was 7.52 yuan, down 7.74% year-on-year [10][28]. - The ticket prices for major express companies in June were 13.67 yuan for SF Express, 2.10 yuan for YTO Express, 1.91 yuan for Yunda Express, and 1.99 yuan for Shentong Express, with year-on-year changes of -13.32%, -6.69%, -4.50%, and -1.00% respectively [36]. Industry Structure - The brand concentration index (CR8) in June was 87.0, unchanged from May and up 1.7 from the same period in 2024. The market shares for SF Express, YTO Express, Yunda Express, and Shentong Express were 8.65%, 15.57%, 12.88%, and 12.95% respectively, with year-on-year increases of 1.05%, 0.46%, -1.00%, and -0.54% [11][46]. Investment Suggestions - The industry demand remains high, and the intensity of price competition is controllable. The report suggests focusing on investment opportunities in the sector under the "anti-involution" policy, as the current valuation has returned to a relatively low historical level, providing a sufficient margin of safety. Specific companies to watch include SF Express, Zhongtong Express, and YTO Express, which are expected to benefit from their operational strategies and market positions [12][49].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" with an expectation that the industry index will outperform the market index by more than 10% in the next six months [7]. Core Insights - The express delivery industry experienced high growth in package volume in the first half of 2025, with a total of 956.4 billion packages delivered, representing a year-on-year increase of 19.3%. However, the revenue growth lagged behind, with total industry revenue reaching 718.78 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.1% [2][3]. - The average revenue per package continued to decline, with a June average of 7.49 yuan, down 5.85% year-on-year, although the rate of decline has slowed due to seasonal demand [2][4]. - The competitive landscape among leading companies remains intense, with significant changes in market share observed in June 2025. The concentration index (CR8) for express delivery services remained stable at 87.0, indicating a slight easing of competitive pressure [4][5]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - In the first half of 2025, the express delivery business volume accounted for 74.0% in the eastern region, 15.5% in the central region, and 10.5% in the western region. The eastern region saw a slight decline in both revenue and volume share compared to the previous year, while the central and western regions experienced increases [3]. Competitive Dynamics - Major express delivery companies such as SF Express, Yunda, Shentong, and YTO reported varying growth rates in package volume, with SF Express leading at 14.60 billion packages, a year-on-year increase of 31.77%. However, average revenue per package for these companies showed a decline, reflecting ongoing competitive pressures [4]. Investment Strategy - The report suggests a positive outlook for the express delivery industry amid regulatory changes aimed at reducing "involution" competition. It is anticipated that the continued tightening of regulations will lead to a reduction in price declines and a release of profit elasticity for express delivery companies. Recommended stocks include SF Holding, YTO Express, Shentong Express, and Yunda [5].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the increase in the minimum express delivery price in Yiwu is expected to alleviate price pressure in the third quarter, but it does not address the fundamental issues of overcapacity and service homogenization in the industry [1][3] - The average delivery price in Yiwu has been raised by 0.1 RMB to 1.2 RMB, effective from July 18 [1] - Bank of America believes that if there is no industry consolidation, any increase in average prices will not be sustainable [1][3] Group 2 - Bank of America has raised the expected earnings per share for YTO Express, Shentong, and Jitu by 6-7% for the years 2025-2027 [2] - Target prices for these companies have been increased by 18-32% based on the mixed expectations for 2025/2026 [2] - The company maintains a neutral rating on Zhongtong due to slow market share growth but reasonable valuation [2] Group 3 - The structural negative impact on average price and market share control is highlighted, indicating that the price war is unlikely to stop as long as overcapacity exists [3] - Merchants can circumvent the price control by sending packages to nearby areas without such controls [3] - Bank of America suggests that the focus should be on improving the welfare of couriers rather than merely adjusting price controls [3]

当收寄快递成为越来越多人生活习惯时，快递费用却悄悄的"背刺"起了消费者。 近期，有媒体报道，一个2.7公斤的包裹，在多家快递公司手中，重量会"神奇"地变成3公斤甚至4公 斤。这多出来的"空气重量"，最终却需要消费者掏腰包买单。 随着电子商务的发展，近十年来我国快递业务量增加了8倍，买买买、拆寄快递成了大多数人的生活常 态。但在行业繁荣的背后，这种"向上取整"的计价方式，却在悄悄"吸血"，也正在成为撕开行业规范的 缺口。 "就多收几块钱，没必要计较"，或许很多人对快递称重的"四舍五入"习以为常。可当全国人均年快递支 出逼近千元，1kg与1.1kg的计费差被乘以1751亿件的业务量，这就不再是个小数目了。 "向上取整"合规吗？快递收费明细是如何规定的？行业规定只是一纸空谈吗？面对向上收费，消费者又 该如何保障自己的权益呢？ 十年业务量增加8倍 快递费成日常支出 早上刚拆完网购的早餐机，中午就把穿小的童装寄给老家侄女，下午又收到公司寄来的文件——这大概 是现在很多人的日常。 炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 随着电子商务的发展，我国的快递业务量一路高歌猛进，从2015年到20 ...