Core Insights - The express delivery industry in China has shown significant growth in 2024, with major companies achieving profitability for the first time, driven by e-commerce returns and automation technologies [2][6][4]. Industry Overview - The total express delivery volume and revenue in 2024 reached 1.745 billion packages and 1.4 trillion yuan, marking year-on-year growth of 21% and 13% respectively [2]. - The market structure is becoming more balanced, with the share of express delivery volume and revenue in eastern regions declining while central and western regions are increasing [2]. Company Performance - Major express companies reported daily package volumes increasing from 40-70 million in 2022 to 60-90 million in 2024 [2]. - SF Express achieved a revenue of 284.42 billion yuan with a net profit of 10.17 billion yuan, marking a 23.51% increase in net profit [3][6]. - JD Logistics reported a remarkable net profit growth of 507.2% to 7.088 billion yuan [3][6]. - Yunda and YTO Express experienced a decline in net profit due to intense price competition [2]. Growth Drivers - The rise in e-commerce return rates has significantly contributed to the growth of reverse logistics, with companies like Jitu Express reporting an 80% year-on-year increase in reverse and scattered orders [4][5]. - Companies are focusing on enhancing their reverse logistics capabilities and optimizing revenue structures through scattered order business [4][5]. Automation and Workforce Changes - The industry is increasingly adopting automation technologies such as drones and smart sorting systems, leading to improved operational efficiency [2][9]. - Several companies, including SF Express and Yunda, have reduced their workforce while increasing employee salaries, indicating a shift towards technology-driven operations [9][10]. Market Competition - Despite the overall growth, competition remains fierce, particularly in pricing, which has affected profit margins for some companies [7][6]. - The market share of leading companies is shifting, with Zhongtong maintaining the top position but with narrowing gaps to YTO Express [4][6].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][3][17] Core Views - The company's profit performance has come under pressure, but its competitiveness continues to strengthen. In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 170.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.6%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 8.1 billion yuan, down 10.3% year-on-year [1][7] - The company achieved rapid growth in parcel volume, with a total of 265.7 billion parcels delivered in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 25.3%, which is higher than the industry growth rate of 21.5% [1][10] - The company is currently in a phase of solidifying its network foundation and expanding market share, leading to high capital expenditures, which are expected to remain elevated in 2025 [2][15] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For 2024, the company expects a total revenue of 690.3 billion yuan, an increase of 19.7%, and a net profit of 38.4 billion yuan, up 6.6% [1][4] - The company’s single-ticket express delivery prices have seen a decline, with prices in Q2 2024, Q3 2024, Q4 2024, and Q1 2025 being 2.26 yuan, 2.20 yuan, 2.29 yuan, and 2.28 yuan respectively, reflecting year-on-year decreases of -3.9%, -5.8%, -5.3%, and -6.3% [1][10] Cost Management - The company has implemented refined cost control measures, resulting in a reduction in single-ticket transportation costs to 0.42 yuan in both 2024 and Q1 2025, down by 0.04 yuan and 0.05 yuan year-on-year respectively [2][15] - The net profit contribution from the express delivery business, excluding the impact of air and international operations, showed a year-on-year increase of 12.2% in 2024 but a decrease of 4.7% in Q1 2025 [2][15] Future Outlook - The profit forecast for 2025-2027 has been slightly adjusted, with expected net profits of 43.0 billion yuan, 49.0 billion yuan, and 55.1 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year changes of +7%, +14%, and +12% respectively [3][17] - The company is expected to maintain a competitive advantage in the express delivery industry, which is anticipated to remain robust [3][17]

Summary of YTO Express Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: YTO Express - **Fiscal Year**: 2024 - **Key Financials**: - Net profit: 4.012 billion CNY, up 7.78% YoY - Express business net profit: 4.307 billion CNY, up 12.16% YoY - Loss in air freight and international business: 294 million CNY Key Points Financial Performance - **2024 Performance**: - Total express volume: 26.573 billion pieces, up 25.32% YoY - Revenue: 69.033 billion CNY, up 16.67% YoY - Q4 2024 express volume: 7.659 billion pieces, up 23.72% YoY - Q4 2024 net profit: 1.082 billion CNY, with express business profit at 1.106 billion CNY [2][3][4] Business Segments - **Express Business**: - Q1 2025 express volume: 6.779 billion pieces, up 21.75% YoY - Q1 2025 revenue: 17.060 billion CNY, up 10.58% YoY - Q1 2025 net profit: 857 million CNY, with express business profit at 947 million CNY [5][6] - **Air Freight and International Business**: - Losses in Q1 2025: 90 million CNY, including losses from Hong Kong airport investment [5][6] Pricing and Cost Structure - **Single Ticket Revenue and Costs**: - Q4 2024 single ticket revenue: 2.29 CNY, down 0.14 CNY YoY - Q4 2024 single ticket cost: 2.11 CNY, down 0.10 CNY YoY - Q1 2025 single ticket revenue: 2.28 CNY, down 0.16 CNY YoY - Q1 2025 single ticket cost: 2.11 CNY, down 0.09 CNY YoY [2][6] Market Dynamics - **Industry Competition**: - Increased price competition in 2025, with leading companies growing faster while trailing companies see declines [2][7] - YTO aims for steady growth while ensuring profitability amidst competitive pressures [2][7] Strategic Initiatives - **Capital Expenditure**: - 2024 capital expenditure: 6.7 billion CNY, expected to remain high in 2025 to address industry changes and capacity needs [2][8] - **Digital and AI Transformation**: - Transitioning from digital to intelligent operations, with expected cost improvements of 1 billion CNY through AI applications [4][17] - New ERP version launched to enhance merchant management and inventory control [20] Policy and Regulatory Environment - **Pricing Policy**: - Nationwide uniform delivery fee policy to restore network confidence [9] - Price war dynamics and ASP (average selling price) decline predictions remain uncertain [10] - **Refund Policy Impact**: - Changes in refund policies may lead to improved product quality focus among merchants [11] Future Outlook - **Growth Targets**: - 2025 growth target set at over 20%, with Q1 achieving 20.3% growth [4][12] - Air freight profitability expected to improve, with stable international business operations [13] - **Long-term Confidence**: - Management expresses confidence in future growth driven by AI and technology advancements [28] - Market sentiment currently cautious, but potential for significant recovery as industry dynamics stabilize [29] Conclusion - YTO Express is navigating a competitive landscape with a focus on profitability, strategic investments in technology, and maintaining market share while adapting to changing industry conditions. The company is optimistic about future growth prospects, particularly through AI and digital transformation initiatives.

Core Viewpoint - YTO Express reported a revenue of 69.033 billion yuan for 2024, marking a year-on-year growth of 19.67%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.012 billion yuan, up 7.78% [1] Financial Performance - In 2024, YTO Express's express delivery business volume reached 26.573 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 25.32%, surpassing the industry average growth rate by 3.8 percentage points [1] - For Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 17.060 billion yuan, a 10.58% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 0.857 billion yuan [1] - The average revenue per express delivery piece decreased to 2.30 yuan in 2024, down 4.86% from 2.41 yuan in the previous year [3][4] Business Segmentation - Domestic time-sensitive products generated a revenue of 5.975 billion yuan, while international express and parcel services saw a revenue decline of 5.58% to 126 million yuan [2] - Value-added services contributed 252.945 million yuan, with a gross margin of 53.16%, and freight forwarding services generated 3.759 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 22.51% [2] Cost Management - The cost per express delivery piece decreased to 2.09 yuan, down 4.04% from the previous year, with significant reductions in transportation and operational costs [4][5] - The company reported a nearly 12% increase in the number of packages per vehicle and a nearly 10% improvement in labor efficiency by the end of 2024 [5] Strategic Initiatives - YTO Express is focusing on embracing artificial intelligence and advancing smart development, particularly in international business, which has shown limited growth [3][9] - The company plans to enhance its domestic and international networks and improve core services in international express, freight, and supply chain management [8][10] Industry Context - The express delivery industry is experiencing intense price competition, with YTO Express's single-piece revenue declining alongside competitors [6][7] - The industry is shifting towards high-quality development, emphasizing service quality over mere cost advantages [6][7]

上 市 公 司 2025 年 04 月 29 日 圆通速递 (600233) ——业务量保持较高增速，关注行业格局优化机遇 报告原因：有业绩公布需要点评 买入（维持） | 市场数据： | 2025 年 04 月 28 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | 13.09 | | 一年内最高/最低（元） | 19.55/11.97 | | 市净率 | 1.5 | | 股息率%（分红/股价） | 2.67 | | 流通 A 股市值（百万元） | 45,118 | | 上证指数/深证成指 | 3,288.41/9,855.20 | | 注："股息率"以最近一年已公布分红计算 | | | 基础数据: | 2025 年 03 月 31 日 | | --- | --- | | 每股净资产（元） | 9.44 | | 资产负债率% | 31.68 | | 总股本/流通 A 股（百万） | 3,447/3,447 | | 流通 B 股/H 股（百万） | -/- | 一年内股价与大盘对比走势： 交通运输 04-29 05-29 06-29 07-29 08-29 09-29 10-29 11-29 12-29 ...

Core Insights - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights that the "Rural Express" initiative and e-commerce business have become significant drivers for the growth of express delivery companies in 2024 [2][4]. Financial Performance - YTO Express reported a revenue of 69.033 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 19.67%, with a net profit of 4.012 billion yuan, up 7.78% [3]. - Yunda Express achieved a revenue of 48.543 billion yuan, a 7.92% increase, and a net profit of 1.914 billion yuan, up 17.77% [3]. - Shentong Express reported a revenue of 47.169 billion yuan, a 15.26% increase, and a net profit of 1.04 billion yuan, a significant rise of 205.24% [3]. - The overall express delivery business volume in China reached 1.758 billion pieces, a year-on-year growth of 21.5% [3]. Market Trends - The "Rural Express" initiative has led to the establishment of 346,000 village-level logistics service stations across the country in 2024 [4]. - The live e-commerce sector contributed significantly to the express delivery industry, with retail sales reaching 4.3 trillion yuan from January to November 2024, accounting for 80% of the e-commerce sector's growth [4]. Operational Efficiency - Companies are focusing on cost reduction and efficiency improvements, with Yunda reporting a 21.91% decrease in core operating costs per ticket in 2024 [8]. - YTO Express has implemented demand-based delivery and improved delivery performance, resulting in a nearly 28% reduction in false signing rates [5]. Pricing Pressure - YTO Express experienced a decline in revenue per ticket to 2.3 yuan, a decrease of 4.86%, while the cost per ticket fell to 2.09 yuan, down 4.04% [7]. - The average price for express delivery in the industry was reported at 8.02 yuan per ticket, indicating a continuous downward trend [7]. Technological Advancements - Companies are increasingly adopting unmanned delivery technologies, with Shentong testing smart-assisted driving vehicles on express routes [9]. - YTO Express is exploring the application of autonomous driving technology to enhance transportation efficiency and reduce costs [8].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 69.03 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 19.67%, with a net profit attributable to the parent company of 4.01 billion yuan, up 7.78% year-on-year [2] - In Q1 2025, the company reported a net profit of 857 million yuan, a decrease of 9.16% year-on-year, while the operating revenue was 17.06 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 10.58% [2] - The company continues to see strong growth in its express delivery business, with a volume of 26.57 billion pieces in 2024, up 25.32% year-on-year, and a market share of approximately 15.2% [4] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company’s operating revenue was 690.33 million yuan, with a net profit of 40.12 million yuan, and a cash flow from operating activities of 58.57 million yuan, which decreased by 3.0% year-on-year [2][7] - The company’s single ticket express revenue in Q1 2025 was 2.28 yuan, down 6.26% year-on-year, while the core cost per ticket was 0.72 yuan, a decrease of 6.49% [3] - The company’s net profit forecast for 2025-2027 is 4.10 billion yuan, 4.74 billion yuan, and 5.39 billion yuan, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 2.2%, 15.6%, and 13.6% [8] Business Growth and Strategy - The company is focusing on international business expansion, with a self-owned fleet of 13 aircraft and over 150 routes opened, leading to a significant revenue increase of 43.20% in the air cargo segment in 2024 [5] - The company’s digital transformation and cost management strategies are expected to enhance operational efficiency and profitability [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of 17.89 RMB [6][7]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 69.03 billion RMB and a net profit of 4.01 billion RMB in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 19.7% and 7.8% respectively. The express delivery business contributed 62.29 billion RMB to revenue and 4.31 billion RMB to net profit, with growth rates of 19.2% and 12.2% [1][2]. - In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 17.06 billion RMB and a net profit of 860 million RMB, showing a year-on-year increase of 10.6% in revenue but a decline of 9.2% in net profit [1][2]. - The company is expected to face continued pressure on profitability due to increased competition and a higher proportion of low-priced deliveries, which has led to a decrease in average revenue per package [1][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company handled 26.57 billion packages, a year-on-year increase of 25.3%, outperforming the industry growth rate of 21.5% by 3.8 percentage points. The average price per package decreased by 4.9% to 2.30 RMB, which is better than the industry average decline of 6.3% [2]. - The company's single-package cost decreased by 4.0% to 2.09 RMB, with transportation costs down by 9.4% to 0.42 RMB. However, the single-package gross profit fell by 12.6% to 0.20 RMB due to intense industry competition and declining revenue per package [2]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The net profit forecast for 2025 and 2026 has been revised down by 16% to 4.42 billion RMB and 5.07 billion RMB respectively, with a new forecast for 2027 at 5.72 billion RMB. The corresponding EPS estimates are 1.28 RMB, 1.47 RMB, and 1.66 RMB [3]. - The company is assigned a PE ratio of 14.0x for 2025, which is a premium compared to the industry average of 12.5x, reflecting the company's superior management and service quality [3].

Core Viewpoint - YTO Express reported a revenue of 69.03 billion and a net profit of 4.01 billion for 2024, reflecting year-on-year growth of 19.7% and 7.8% respectively, with the express delivery business contributing 62.29 billion and 4.31 billion, showing growth of 19.2% and 12.2% [1] Group 1: Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved a total volume of 26.57 billion parcels, a year-on-year increase of 25.3%, outperforming the industry growth rate of 21.5% by 3.8 percentage points [2] - The average price per parcel decreased by 4.9% to 2.30 yuan, which was better than the industry average decline of 6.3% [2] - In Q1 2025, the company continued to outperform the industry with a parcel volume increase of 21.7% compared to the industry’s 21.6%, while the average price per parcel fell by 6.3% against the industry’s 8.8% [2] Group 2: Cost and Profitability - The single parcel cost decreased by 4.0% to 2.09 yuan, with transportation costs down by 9.4% to 0.42 yuan due to optimized fleet structure and routing [2] - The single parcel gross profit fell by 12.6% to 0.20 yuan, attributed to ongoing industry competition and declining revenue per parcel [2] - The four expense ratios increased by 0.1 percentage points to 2.4%, with financial expenses rising significantly by 259.6% due to increased interest payments and reduced interest income [2] Group 3: Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company has revised down its net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 by 16% to 4.42 billion and 5.07 billion respectively, with a new forecast for 2027 at 5.72 billion [3] - The company is assigned a 2025 PE ratio of 14.0x, compared to the industry average of 12.5x, reflecting a premium due to improved management efficiency and service quality [3] - The target price has been adjusted to 17.89 yuan from a previous 23.70 yuan, while maintaining a "buy" rating [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of 17.89 RMB [6][7]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 69.03 billion RMB and a net profit of 4.01 billion RMB in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 19.7% and 7.8% respectively. The express delivery business contributed 62.29 billion RMB to revenue and 4.31 billion RMB to net profit, with growth rates of 19.2% and 12.2% respectively [1][2]. - In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 17.06 billion RMB and a net profit of 860 million RMB, showing a year-on-year increase of 10.6% in revenue but a decline of 9.2% in net profit [1]. - The company is expected to face continued pressure on profitability due to increased competition and a higher proportion of low-priced deliveries, which has led to a decrease in average revenue per package [1][3]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - The company’s package volume grew by 25.3% in 2024, outperforming the industry growth rate of 21.5%. The average price per package decreased by 4.9% to 2.30 RMB, which is better than the industry average decline of 6.3% [2]. - The single-package cost decreased by 4.0% to 2.09 RMB, with transportation costs down by 9.4% to 0.42 RMB. However, the single-package gross profit fell by 12.6% to 0.20 RMB due to intense industry competition [2]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The net profit forecast for 2025 and 2026 has been revised down by 16% to 4.42 billion RMB and 5.07 billion RMB respectively. A new forecast for 2027 is set at 5.72 billion RMB, with corresponding EPS of 1.28 RMB, 1.47 RMB, and 1.66 RMB [3]. - The company is assigned a PE ratio of 14.0x for 2025, which is a premium compared to the industry average of 12.5x, reflecting the company's superior management and service quality [3]. Financial Metrics - The projected revenue for 2025 is 77.13 billion RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 11.73%. The net profit is expected to reach 4.42 billion RMB, reflecting a growth of 10.17% [5][21]. - The company’s market capitalization is approximately 45.12 billion RMB, with a closing price of 13.09 RMB as of April 28 [7].