Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - **Metals Industry**: The records discuss the metals industry, particularly focusing on precious metals, industrial metals, and energy metals, with insights into market trends and forecasts for 2026 [1][2][6][12][26]. Precious Metals - **Silver Price Volatility**: Silver prices have experienced significant fluctuations due to decreasing inventories and demand expectations, with a short-term pullback influenced by AI trends, but long-term trends are expected to follow gold prices [1][3]. - **Federal Reserve's Impact**: The recent 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve and the initiation of short-term U.S. debt purchases have enhanced liquidity expectations, driving precious metal prices upward, with silver reaching nearly $64 per ounce [2][5]. - **Long-term Support Factors**: Factors such as the Federal Reserve's asset purchases, interest rate cuts, and the U.S. strategic shift away from the dollar are expected to provide long-term support for precious metal prices [1][4][5]. Industrial Metals - **Optimistic Outlook**: The industrial metals market outlook is optimistic, with expectations of demand rebound in traditional manufacturing and real estate due to easing high-interest rates and supportive policies from China's 14th Five-Year Plan [1][6]. - **Copper Price Trends**: Copper prices reached new highs following the Fed's rate cut but faced adjustments due to concerns over AI and U.S. economic data. Future price trends will depend on economic resilience indicators [7][8]. - **Aluminum Market Dynamics**: The aluminum market is expected to remain strong due to fiscal and monetary easing, despite seasonal demand pressures. The overall demand is anticipated to be supported by storage and export activities [10][11]. Energy Metals - **Lithium Demand**: Lithium demand remains robust, driven by the economics of energy storage, with high order expectations for 2026. Supply-side disruptions continue, maintaining a tight supply-demand balance [12][15]. - **Cobalt Market Stability**: Cobalt prices are expected to remain stable in the short term, with supply concerns easing due to improved political conditions in the Democratic Republic of Congo [12][13]. Steel Industry - **Policy Changes**: The steel industry has reinstated the steel export license system to optimize export structures and limit low-value product exports, which is expected to impact the market significantly [23][24]. - **Investment Opportunities**: Despite short-term market reactions to new policies, there are long-term investment opportunities in high-end manufacturing steel companies, which are less affected by these changes [24][25]. Conclusion - **Investment Strategy**: The overall analysis indicates various investment opportunities across precious metals, industrial metals, and energy metals, emphasizing the need to monitor policy changes and market dynamics closely to adjust investment strategies accordingly [26].

FFFF 2025 年 12 月 14 日 本期投资提示: 一周行情回顾：据 ifind，环比上周 1) 上证指数下跌 0.34%，深证成指上涨 0.84%，沪深 300 下跌 ● 0.08%，有色金属（申万）指数下跌 0.47%，跑输沪深 300 指数 0.39 个百分点。2) 分子板块看，环比 上周，贵金属上涨 1.50%，铝下跌 4.72%，能源金属上涨 0.48%，小金属上涨 1.76%，铜下跌 0.83%, 铅锌下跌 1.45%，金属新材料上涨 2.71%。 相关研究 若研究院 证券分析师 郭中伟 A0230524120004 quozw@swsresearch.com 马焰明 A0230523090003 maym@swsresearch.com 陈松涛 A0230523090002 chenst@swsresearch.com 马昕晔 A0230511090002 maxy@swsresearch.com 联系人 郭中耀 A0230124070003 quozy@swsresearch.com 申万宏源研究微信服务号 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 降息如期落地,金属价格强势 波段人 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the metals and new materials industry, indicating a favorable investment rating [2]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the recent interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve has led to a strong performance in metal prices, particularly in precious metals [5]. - It notes that the overall performance of the non-ferrous metals index has outperformed the broader market significantly in 2025, with a year-to-date increase of 79.60% [6][10]. - The report emphasizes the potential for continued price increases in precious metals due to low central bank gold reserves in China and a shift in monetary policy [5]. Weekly Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 0.34%, while the Shenzhen Component increased by 0.84% during the week [4]. - The non-ferrous metals index fell by 0.47%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.39 percentage points [6]. - Precious metals saw a weekly increase of 1.50%, while aluminum prices dropped by 4.72% [12]. Price Changes and Industry Analysis - Industrial metals prices showed mixed results, with copper prices down by 0.83% and aluminum prices down by 4.72% [5]. - The report indicates that the demand for copper remains strong, with a current social inventory of 163,000 tons, reflecting a slight increase [34]. - The report suggests that the supply-demand dynamics for aluminum are tightening, with a forecast for long-term price increases [5]. Key Company Valuations - The report provides valuations for key companies in the industry, such as Zijin Mining, which has a projected PE ratio of 16 for 2025 [22]. - Other notable companies include Shandong Gold and Huayou Cobalt, with respective PE ratios of 24 and 20 for 2025 [22]. - The report highlights the potential for valuation recovery in state-owned enterprises within the steel sector, such as Hesteel and Shandong Steel [23].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies in the non-ferrous metals sector, including Shandong Gold, Zijin Mining, and others [3][6]. Core Views - The report highlights that the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut and balance sheet expansion are favorable for precious metals, with expectations of further rate cuts in 2026 [1][35]. - For industrial metals, the report notes that copper inventories are increasing in the U.S., while non-U.S. regions face supply tightness, which could lead to a short squeeze [2]. - The aluminum market is supported by positive macroeconomic policies and low inventory levels, leading to a strong price floor [2]. - Nickel prices are expected to remain low due to seasonal demand weakness [2]. - Lithium prices are experiencing fluctuations due to supply disruptions, while cobalt supply is set to increase with the resumption of exports from the Democratic Republic of Congo [2]. Summary by Sections Precious Metals - The Federal Reserve's recent actions are expected to boost liquidity and support precious metal prices [1][35]. - The market anticipates two rate cuts in 2026, which could influence precious metal investments positively [1][35]. Industrial Metals - **Copper**: U.S. copper inventories are rising, while low inventories in non-U.S. regions raise concerns about supply [2]. - **Aluminum**: The aluminum market is experiencing a strong price support due to positive economic data and low inventory levels [2]. - **Nickel**: Nickel prices are projected to remain low as demand enters a seasonal downturn [2]. Energy Metals - **Lithium**: Prices are fluctuating due to supply disruptions, with recent increases in lithium carbonate prices [2]. - **Cobalt**: The resumption of cobalt exports from the Democratic Republic of Congo is expected to stabilize supply and maintain high price levels [2]. Key Companies to Watch - The report suggests monitoring companies such as Shandong Gold, Zijin Mining, and others for potential investment opportunities [1][2][6].

行业周报 | 有色金属 2026 经济开局定调+美联储降息扩表，看好有色景气上行 证券研究报告 2025 年 12 月 14 日 有色金属行业周报（2025.12.8 -2025.12.14） 核心结论 本周核心关注一：政治局会议定调明年经济工作，实施更加积极有为的宏观 政策 2026 年经济工作的政策基调已经明确，会议指出，做好明年经济 工作，要实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，增强政策前瞻性针对性协 同性，持续扩大内需、优化供给，做优增量、盘活存量，因地制宜 发展新质生产力，纵深推进全国统一大市场建设，持续防范化解重 点领域风险，着力稳就业、稳企业、稳市场、稳预期，推动经济实 现质的有效提升和量的合理增长，保持社会和谐稳定，实现"十五 五"良好开局。2026 年是"十五五"开局之年，政策取向将直接 影响未来五年经济发展的节奏与质量。政策基调将更为积极，重点 解决经济运行中的结构性矛盾，通过更加精准有效的政策组合拳， 激发经济增长新动能。 本周核心关注二：美联储继续降息，同时重启扩表 12 月 11 日凌晨，美联储宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间下调 0.25 个百分点至 3.5%-3.75%，符合市场预期。其中声明新 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for all key companies listed, including Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Huayou Cobalt [2][4]. Core Views - The report highlights that the metal prices are expected to continue rising due to the resonance of domestic and foreign fiscal and monetary policies, with a focus on the upcoming economic growth under the "14th Five-Year Plan" [8][21]. - The report emphasizes the strong demand in the lithium battery sector and the ongoing supply constraints in cobalt, indicating a bullish outlook for energy metals [8][83]. Summary by Sections Industry and Stock Performance - The report notes a decline in the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.34% and a 1.10% drop in the SW Nonferrous Index during the week [8]. - Key stocks in the nonferrous metal sector showed varied performance, with significant recommendations for companies like Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum [2][11]. Base Metals - Aluminum prices decreased by 0.88% to $2875 per ton, while copper prices fell by 0.96% to $11552.5 per ton, with zinc prices increasing by 1.31% to $3139 per ton [12][21]. - The report indicates that the domestic aluminum production capacity is stable at 44.39 million tons, with a slight increase in operational capacity due to high profits [21][23]. Precious Metals - Gold prices increased by 2.42% to $4329.80 per ounce, and silver prices rose by 5.59% to $62.09 per ounce, driven by the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts [12][68]. - The report suggests a bullish outlook for gold and silver prices, supported by central bank purchases and weakening dollar credit [68][69]. Energy Metals - The lithium market is experiencing stable growth in supply, while demand from the energy storage sector continues to rise, leading to a positive outlook for lithium prices [8][83]. - Cobalt supply remains tight, with the Congo's cobalt export quotas expected to impact the market dynamics positively [8][83]. Other Minor Metals - The report discusses the fluctuations in prices for minor metals, including molybdenum and tungsten, with significant price increases noted for tungsten [15][83]. - The overall sentiment in the minor metals market remains cautious, with a focus on supply-demand dynamics and policy changes [55][85].

国际金价在2025年第三季度冲上每盎司3459美元的高位，同比暴涨近40%。全球黄金市场一片欢腾。目前伦敦金更是暴涨至4300美元，上涨速度令人咋舌。 山东黄金三季度财报当季归母净利润11.48亿元，环比猛降35.58%，远低于预期。 第三季度净利润环比骤降三成，山东黄金在金价飙涨的市场狂欢中，交出了一份令人皱眉的答卷。 山东黄金2025年前三季度成绩单，表面数据相当漂亮。营收837.83亿元，同比增长25.04%。归母净利润39.56亿元，同比飙升91.51%。扣非净利润39.45亿 元，增长88.43%。 黄金企业的利润密码，不在金价，而在成本控制。2025年前三季度，山东黄金毛利率18.01%，净利率6.47%，分别增长3.13和1.53个百分点。 第三季度单季数据更加微妙：毛利率19.18%，净利率5.71%。毛利率同比上升2.75个百分点，环比微增0.13个百分点；净利率同比仅增0.31个百分点，环比反 而下降2.12个百分点。 问题出在哪里？低品位矿的开发利用。 随着金价上行，山东黄金加大了低品位矿的开采力度。这些矿石就像硬骨头，能啃下来，但需要付出更高成本。生产成本上升导致毛利率增长不及预期。 ...

Group 1: Market Performance - The three major indices strengthened, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.41%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 0.84%, and the ChiNext Index by 0.97%, while the Sci-Tech Innovation 50 Index increased by 1.74% [2] - Over 2,500 stocks in the two markets saw gains, with a total trading volume reaching approximately 2.09 trillion yuan [2] Group 2: Precious Metals Sector - The precious metals sector was notably strong, with stocks like Zhaojin Mining (000506.SZ) rising by 7.8%, and other companies such as Xiaocheng Technology (300139.SZ), Western Gold (601069.SH), Shandong Gold (600547.SH), and Hunan Silver (002716.SZ) also experiencing increases [2] - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points on December 11, 2025, cumulatively lowering rates by 75 basis points, has boosted precious metal prices, alongside heightened expectations for future rate cuts and rising inflation [2] Group 3: Electric Grid Equipment Sector - Electric grid equipment stocks also performed well, with Tongguang Cable (300265.SZ) and Zhongneng Electric (300062.SZ) both rising by 20%, while companies like Xinte Electric (301120.SZ), Jiusheng Electric (301082.SZ), and China Western Power (601179.SH) saw significant gains [2] - The global energy transition and AI computing power growth are driving the evolution of electric grid systems towards smarter and more resilient designs, creating historic opportunities for domestic power equipment leaders with technological advantages and export capabilities [3] Group 4: Commercial Aerospace Sector - The commercial aerospace sector remained active, with stocks such as Superjet Co. (301005.SZ) rising by 20%, Srey New Materials (688102.SH) by 17.58%, and Aerospace Power (600343.SH) by 10% [3] - A successful launch of the Long March 12 rocket on December 12, 2025, which placed 16 low-orbit satellite internet satellites into orbit, highlights the growth potential of China's commercial aerospace industry, projected to reach a scale of 2.8 trillion yuan by 2025 [3] Group 5: Computing Hardware Sector - The computing hardware sector showed repeated activity, with stocks like Lian Te Technology (301205.SZ) increasing by 15.87%, and others such as Changxin Bochuang (300548.SZ), Dongtianwei (301183.SZ), and Tengjing Technology (688195.SH) also performing well [4] - According to TrendForce, the global market for optical transceiver modules over 800G is expected to grow significantly, with projections of 24 million units by 2025 and nearly 63 million by 2026, indicating a growth rate of 2.6 times [4]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has completed its third interest rate cut of the year, lowering the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.50%-3.75%, totaling a 75 basis point reduction for the year [1] - The Fed's dovish signals and the announcement of a short-term Treasury bond purchase plan have weakened the US dollar and lowered US Treasury yields, reducing the holding costs for gold assets and creating upward potential for gold prices [1] - Central banks globally are increasing their gold reserves, with China's central bank having added gold for 13 consecutive months, indicating a strong long-term support for gold assets [1] Group 2 - As of December 12, 2025, the CSI Hong Kong-Shenzhen Gold Industry Stock Index has risen by 2.17%, with notable increases in constituent stocks such as Xiaocheng Technology (up 7.28%) and Western Gold (up 6.23%) [2] - The gold stock ETF has seen an active trading volume with a turnover rate of 11.96% and a transaction value of 12.96 million yuan, indicating a vibrant market [2] - The gold stock ETF has experienced a significant growth in scale, increasing by 6.22 million yuan over the past week [2] Group 3 - The top ten weighted stocks in the CSI Hong Kong-Shenzhen Gold Industry Stock Index account for 68.26% of the index, with major companies including Zijin Mining and Shandong Gold [3] - The index is composed of 50 large-cap stocks involved in gold mining, refining, and sales, reflecting the overall performance of gold industry companies in the mainland and Hong Kong markets [2][3]

Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metal sector is experiencing a significant inflow of capital, with the Non-Ferrous 50 ETF (159652) seeing a net inflow of over 150,000 yuan and a cumulative net subscription exceeding 200 million yuan over the past five days, indicating strong investor interest [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of December 12, the Non-Ferrous 50 ETF (159652) opened strong, rising by 0.26% and briefly exceeding 1% during the morning session [1]. - The performance of the underlying index components is mixed, with companies like Zhongjin Gold and Shandong Gold rising over 2%, while companies such as Ganfeng Lithium and Tianqi Lithium fell over 3% [2][3]. - The ETF has shown a consistent trend of capital inflow, with a net subscription of 100,000 units during the session, reflecting ongoing investor confidence [1]. Group 2: Price Trends and Influences - The non-ferrous metal sector, particularly silver and copper, has seen significant price increases, with copper prices up 35% year-to-date, potentially marking the largest annual gain since 2009 [5]. - Silver prices have also reached historical highs, with a year-to-date increase exceeding 100% [5]. - The macroeconomic environment, including the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, is expected to continue supporting the prices of precious metals [6][7]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Looking ahead to 2026, the non-ferrous metal sector is expected to be driven by macroeconomic factors and fundamental supply-demand dynamics, with a focus on the weakening of the US dollar and ongoing supply constraints [6][7]. - The anticipated increase in demand for industrial metals, driven by new growth areas, is expected to enhance price elasticity [6]. - The copper market is projected to face supply constraints, with a slight increase in global copper production expected but limited by high disturbance rates [8]. Group 4: Investment Opportunities - The Non-Ferrous 50 ETF (159652) is highlighted as a leading investment vehicle, with a high concentration of strategic metals such as copper and gold, and a significant portion of its index comprising these metals [10][12]. - The ETF's index has a copper content of 31% and gold content of 14%, making it attractive for investors looking to capitalize on the non-ferrous metal supercycle [12]. - The ETF has demonstrated superior performance with a cumulative return leading its peers since 2022, driven by earnings rather than valuation expansion [14].