Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the food and beverage industry, highlighting several key companies as investment opportunities [3][4]. Core Insights - The food and beverage industry is experiencing internal rotation in new consumption and improvement at the bottom of traditional consumption. The overall performance in 2025 was weak, primarily due to the adjustment in the liquor sector, but the long-term recovery trend for mass consumer goods remains intact [3][8]. - For 2026, structural opportunities are expected to continue, with new consumption showing internal rotation and traditional consumption gradually recovering from the bottom [3][15]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - In 2025, the food and beverage sector's revenue grew by only 0.1% year-on-year, while profits fell by 14.6%, underperforming compared to the previous year. The industry index ranked last among 31 sub-industries with a decline of 4.8% [8][11]. - The adjustment in the liquor sector is identified as the main factor for the overall weak performance, while the recovery trend for mass consumer goods is expected to persist [8][11]. Soft Drinks - The beverage industry is projected to benefit from a rebound in travel demand in 2026, with a revenue increase of 6.2% in the first half of 2025 compared to the previous year [42][45]. - Cost advantages from declining prices of raw materials like sugar and PET are expected to continue, enhancing profit margins for beverage companies [45][49]. Snacks - The konjac snack sector is experiencing high growth, with companies like Salted Fish and Wei Long achieving significant revenue increases in 2025 [66][67]. - The competitive landscape for konjac products is expected to remain manageable, with established brands likely to maintain their market positions despite new entrants [70][76]. Dairy Products - The dairy sector is anticipated to see a recovery in supply-demand balance, with raw milk prices expected to stabilize in 2026 due to ongoing supply adjustments [38][39]. - Policies promoting consumption are expected to benefit liquid milk and milk powder sales, driving demand improvements [38][39]. Frozen and Condiment Products - The frozen food sector is expected to see performance improvements as competition stabilizes, with a focus on recovery in demand [38][39]. - The condiment sector is also projected to benefit from a gradual recovery in consumer demand [38][39]. Liquor - The liquor industry is still in an adjustment phase but is gradually approaching a bottoming out stage, with supply clearing expected to continue into 2026 [6][25]. - The report suggests that the long-term value of liquor stocks will become more apparent as the market stabilizes [6][25]. Investment Recommendations - Key companies to watch include Dongpeng Beverage, Nongfu Spring, and Moutai in the beverage sector, as well as Wei Long and Salted Fish in the snack sector [6][8].

11月24日，山西汾酒大宗交易成交11.17万股，成交额2020.2万元，占当日总成交额的2.62%，成交价 180.86元，较市场收盘价192.4元折价6%。 | 交易日期 | 证券简称 | 证券代码 | | | 成交价(元) 成交金额(万元) 成交量(*) 买入营业部 | | 卖出营业部 | 是否为专场 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025-11-24 | 山西湖道 | 600809 | 180.86 | 542.58 | 3 | 2006 - 100 | 新本市场 | 물 | | 2025-11-24 | 山西湖夏 | 600809 | 180.86 | 397.89 | 2.2 | | 看顾与同作影 | KI | | 2025-11-24 | 山西汾酒 | 600809 | 180.86 | 343.63 | 1.9 | | | る | | 2025-11-24 | 山西湖道 | 600809 | 180.86 | 327.36 | 1.81 | 图片 3 2 3 2 3 2 3 2 3 2 3 2 | | 절 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the launch of a new platform "Wine Price Insider" by Sina Finance, which aims to provide real-time market prices for well-known liquor brands [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3836.77 points, up 0.05%, while the liquor sector index closed at 2248.25 points, up 0.17%, with 11 liquor stocks experiencing gains [1] Group 2 - Individual stock performance shows that Kweichow Moutai closed at 1452.00 CNY per share, down 1.00%; Wuliangye closed at 118.52 CNY per share, down 0.97%; Shanxi Fenjiu closed at 192.40 CNY per share, down 0.31%; and Luzhou Laojiao closed at 132.92 CNY per share [2] - Citic Securities noted in its report that the food and beverage sector is currently undergoing a correction, with valuations at relatively low historical levels and weak market expectations [2] - The liquor industry is experiencing a bottoming out in sales, with Moutai addressing e-commerce chaos to stabilize price expectations, supported by strong brand power and performance to clear burdens [2]

证券代码：600809 证券简称：山西汾酒 公告编号：临 2025-031 山西杏花村汾酒厂股份有限公司 关于召开 2025 年第三季度业绩说明会的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示： 投资者可于 2025 年 11 月 27 日（星期四）至 12 月 03 日（星期 三）16:00 前登录上证路演中心网站首页点击"提问预征集"栏目或 通过公司邮箱 sxfj@fenjiu.com.cn 进行提问。公司将在说明会上对 投资者普遍关注的问题进行回答。 山西杏花村汾酒厂股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）已于 2025 年 10 月 31 日发布公司 2025 年第三季度报告，为便于广大投资者更 全面深入地了解公司 2025 年第三季度经营成果、财务状况，公司计 划于 2025 年 12 月 04 日（星期四）15:00-16:00 举行 2025 年第三季 度业绩说明会，就投资者关心的问题进行交流。 一、 说明会类型 本次业绩说明会以网络互动形式召开，公司将针对 2025 年第三 季度的经营成果及财务指 ...

Core Viewpoint - The liquor sector, particularly the baijiu industry, is experiencing a market correction with valuations at relatively low historical levels, while market expectations remain weak [2] Group 1: Market Performance - On November 24, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3836.77 points, up 0.05% [2] - The baijiu sector closed at 2248.25 points, increasing by 0.17%, with 11 baijiu stocks rising [2] Group 2: Individual Stock Performance - Kweichow Moutai closed at 1452.00 CNY per share, down 1.00% [2] - Wuliangye closed at 118.52 CNY per share, down 0.97% [2] - Shanxi Fenjiu closed at 192.40 CNY per share, down 0.31% [2] - Luzhou Laojiao closed at 132.92 CNY per share, down 0.95% [2] - Yanghe Brewery closed at 66.50 CNY per share, down 0.67% [2] Group 3: Industry Insights - CITIC Securities noted that the baijiu industry is currently in a phase of bottoming out, with ongoing sales struggles [2] - Moutai is addressing e-commerce chaos to stabilize price expectations, supported by performance-driven strategies and strong brand influence [2] - The industry is exploring new marketing models while leveraging strong operational capabilities to enhance channel performance [2]

Core Insights - The Chinese liquor market, particularly the baijiu sector, experienced significant growth in 2020, with A-shares leading globally. The overall revenue for 19 listed baijiu companies reached 258.94 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.58% [1][5] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for these companies totaled 92.068 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 11.95% compared to the previous year [1][5] - There is a notable divergence in performance among baijiu companies, with leading brands like Moutai and Wuliangye achieving double-digit growth, while some smaller brands faced significant declines [4][9] Revenue Performance - In 2020, 19 listed baijiu companies reported a total revenue of 258.94 billion yuan, with 11 companies showing positive growth and 8 experiencing negative growth [2][5] - The highest revenue growth was recorded by Jiugui Liquor at 20.79%, while Qingqing Qiao experienced a decline of 39.07%, marking a difference of 59.86 percentage points [2][3] - The top three companies by revenue were Moutai (94.915 billion yuan), Wuliangye (57.321 billion yuan), and Yanghe (21.101 billion yuan) [4] Profit Analysis - The six leading baijiu companies accounted for over 90% of the total profits in the sector, with Moutai alone contributing more than 36% of total revenue and over 50% of total profits [7][9] - Moutai's net profit reached 46.697 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 13.33%, while Wuliangye's net profit was 19.955 billion yuan, growing by 14.67% [6][7] - Jiugui Liquor showed remarkable performance with a net profit growth of 64.15%, while Qingqing Qiao reported a significant loss of 1.15 billion yuan [6][7] Market Dynamics - The pandemic initially impacted the baijiu industry negatively, but leading brands demonstrated resilience, with Moutai, Wuliangye, and Shanxi Fenjiu achieving substantial growth [9] - The disparity in performance is evident, with some companies like Shanxi Fenjiu and Jiugui Liquor seeing stock prices increase over threefold, while others struggled [9][11] - The overall tax contributions from the baijiu sector increased significantly, with a 48% rise in the first quarter of 2021 compared to the previous year, attributed to a recovery from the pandemic [14][15] Financial Health - As of March 2021, Wuliangye had the highest cash reserves among listed baijiu companies, totaling 73.38 billion yuan, while Moutai had approximately 50.743 billion yuan [17][18] - The financial strength of these companies is crucial for their ability to invest and expand in a competitive market [17] Compensation Trends - Moutai reported the highest average employee salary in the sector at over 300,000 yuan, while the lowest was at less than 52,000 yuan for Huangtai Liquor [19][20] - The management compensation for Moutai was relatively low compared to other companies, with total management salaries below 3.72 million yuan [21][23]

Investment Rating - Investment advice indicates a focus on growth and supply-demand inflection points, with a positive outlook for the sector driven by recent CPI data [5][18]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the recovery of traditional consumer leaders with strong long-term growth certainty, highlighting Yili's shareholder return plan as a sign of stability [1][10]. - The baijiu sector is expected to benefit from market style shifts, with notable sales growth during promotional events, indicating a potential recovery in demand [6][19]. - Consumer goods are showing structural prosperity, particularly in beverages, snacks, and food ingredients, with companies that innovate and expand channels having growth advantages [8][20]. Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations - Focus on growth opportunities in the baijiu sector, with key companies such as Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory, Gujing Distillery, and stable targets like Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye [5][18]. - Highlighting structural growth in beverages with a focus on companies like Eastroc Beverage and Nongfu Spring, as well as low valuation and high dividend stocks such as China Foods and Tingyi [5][18]. - Emphasis on snack and food ingredient companies like Shandong Bailong Chuangyuan and Three Squirrels, alongside beer companies like Yanjing Brewery and Tsingtao Brewery [5][18]. Baijiu Sector Analysis - The baijiu market is experiencing a bottoming phase, with improved expectations driven by recent CPI data and accelerated inventory clearance [6][19]. - Notable sales growth of 18% year-on-year during the Double 11 promotion for alcohol products, with major brands showing double-digit growth [6][19]. Consumer Goods Overview - The consumer goods sector is expected to recover before the baijiu sector, with clear structural differences and growth potential in beverages, snacks, and health products [8][20]. - Yili's announcement of a dividend ratio of at least 75% for 2025-2027, with a per-share dividend of no less than RMB 1.22, reflects a commitment to shareholder returns [10][20].

Group 1 - The food and beverage industry underperformed the CSI 300 index from January to October 2025, with the SW food and beverage index declining by 5.52%, the largest drop among all Shenwan first-level industries, lagging behind the CSI 300 by 23.46 percentage points [5][14][15] - All sub-sectors within the food and beverage industry also underperformed the CSI 300 index, with the beer sector experiencing the largest decline of 10.74%, while the health products sector saw an increase of 15.02% [15][19] - The overall valuation of the food and beverage industry is below the historical average, with a PE ratio of approximately 21 times as of October 31, 2025, compared to a five-year average of 32 times [19][21] Group 2 - The liquor sector is undergoing a deep adjustment, with sales under pressure due to weak demand recovery and restrictions on alcohol consumption, leading to a significant decline in sales during key festive periods [23][24] - Major liquor companies are pragmatically lowering growth targets to alleviate channel pressures, with firms like Moutai and Wuliangye adopting flexible strategies in response to market changes [29][30] - Liquor companies are actively embracing new consumption trends by innovating products and channels, focusing on younger consumers and developing lower-alcohol products to cater to changing preferences [30][32] Group 3 - The beer sector is experiencing stable sales, with a focus on the recovery of consumption scenarios and the ongoing trend of product structure upgrades [3][14] - Beer companies are leveraging instant retail channels to contribute to sales growth, although cost advantages may narrow in the future [3][17] - The third quarter of 2025 saw a decline in beer sales, but there are expectations for marginal improvements moving forward [3][18] Group 4 - The condiment sector is expected to benefit from the recovery of the restaurant industry, which will drive demand growth for condiments [19][20] - Health-oriented products are pushing for structural optimization within the condiment industry, with leading companies likely to increase their market share [20][21] - The overall cost for condiment companies is anticipated to remain manageable, despite a slowdown in growth during the third quarter [22][23] Group 5 - The dairy sector is witnessing a weak recovery in demand, with a focus on supply and demand structures [23][25] - The penetration rate of low-temperature milk is expected to increase, supported by online channels and instant retail contributing to sales growth [25][26] - Leading dairy companies are likely to enhance their competitive advantages in the market [26][27] Group 6 - The snack sector is experiencing steady growth, with an increase in per capita consumption and a focus on core products driving company performance [27][28] - Companies in the snack sector are utilizing multiple channels to enhance market competitiveness, although performance remains varied across the sector [28][30] - The overall market size of the snack industry is steadily increasing, with significant growth potential in consumer spending [27][28]

Core Viewpoint - The food and beverage sector is experiencing a period of consolidation, with the Food ETF (515710) showing a slight increase of 0.16% as of the latest report, indicating a potential recovery phase in the market [1][3]. Market Performance - The Food ETF (515710) fluctuated during the trading session, reaching a peak increase of 0.65% before settling at a 0.16% gain [1]. - Major consumer goods, particularly in the liquor segment, have shown strong performance, with stocks like Gujing Gongjiu and Tianwei Foods rising over 2% [1]. Sales Growth - JD.com reported an 18% year-on-year increase in sales of alcoholic beverages during the recent Double Eleven shopping festival, with brands like Moutai and Wuliangye achieving double-digit growth [2][4]. - The liquor industry is expected to benefit from trends such as online sales, lower alcohol content products, and internationalization, which may provide structural growth opportunities [2]. Valuation Insights - The food and beverage sector is currently at a historical low in terms of valuation, with the Food ETF's underlying index PE ratio at 20.86, placing it in the 9.41% percentile over the past decade, suggesting a favorable entry point for long-term investments [3][4]. - Analysts indicate that the food and beverage sector is in a "difficult to fall, easy to rise" phase, with expectations of a recovery in earnings and valuation improvements starting from 2026 [4]. Investment Strategy - The Food ETF (515710) is recommended for investors looking to gain exposure to high-end and mid-range liquor stocks, as well as other segments like beverages and condiments [5]. - The ETF's portfolio consists of approximately 60% allocation to leading liquor brands and 40% to other food and beverage sectors, making it a diversified investment option [5].

Core Viewpoint - The white liquor market shows a strong performance with a general price increase across the top ten products, indicating positive market sentiment and consumer demand [1]. Price Trends - The average retail price of the top ten white liquor products reached 9283 yuan, an increase of 21 yuan from the previous day, marking a recent high in daily price growth [1]. - Qinghua Lang leads the market with a price increase of 5 yuan per bottle, achieving its fifth consecutive day of price rise [1]. - Xijiu Junpin and Wuliangye Pu Wu Ba Dai both saw a price increase of 4 yuan per bottle, reflecting a steady upward trend [1]. - Yanghe Dream Blue M6+ and Gujing Gong Gu 20 both increased by 3 yuan per bottle, while most products maintained stable or slightly rising prices [1]. - Moutai's boutique price ended its recent decline with a 1 yuan increase, while Feitian Moutai's price remained unchanged [1]. Product Pricing Summary - The following are the current prices and changes for notable products: - Feitian Moutai 53°/500ml: 1835 yuan, unchanged [3] - Boutique Moutai 53°/500ml: 2378 yuan, up 1 yuan [3] - Wuliangye Pu Wu Ba Dai 52°/500ml: 866 yuan, up 4 yuan [3] - Qinghua Fen 20 53°/500ml: 394 yuan, up 1 yuan [3] - Guojiao 1573 52°/500ml: 889 yuan, down 1 yuan [3] - Yanghe Dream Blue M6+ 52°/550ml: 592 yuan, up 3 yuan [4] - Gujing Gong Gu 20 52°/500ml: 513 yuan, up 3 yuan [4] - Xijiu Junpin 53°/500ml: 673 yuan, up 4 yuan [4] - Qinghua Lang 53°/500ml: 725 yuan, up 5 yuan [4] - Shuijing Jian Nan Chun 52°/500ml: 418 yuan, up 1 yuan [4]