Core Insights - The overall performance of listed liquor companies in 2024 showed steady growth despite industry pressures, with 22 companies reporting a total revenue of 446.22 billion yuan and a net profit of 167.82 billion yuan, reflecting a slowdown in growth rates compared to previous years [1][4] Industry Overview - The liquor sector experienced increased differentiation in 2024, with six leading companies accounting for 80% of total revenue and 90% of net profit, even showing slight increases from 2023 [1][4] - The top six liquor companies, including Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, and Shanxi Fenjiu, achieved a combined revenue of 379.74 billion yuan, marking a significant increase of 164.96 billion yuan since 2020 [5][6] Competitive Landscape - Shanxi Fenjiu entered the top three with a revenue of 36 billion yuan, indicating a shift in rankings among leading companies [4][5] - The competition among mid-tier liquor companies intensified, with companies like Shunxin Agriculture and Shede Liquor facing significant revenue declines, highlighting the challenges in maintaining market positions [4][9] Market Trends - The industry is undergoing a transition towards high-end and youth-oriented products, with companies needing to focus on national expansion to succeed in a competitive market [4][11] - Regional market reliance remains high among many companies, with some struggling to increase their contributions from outside their home markets [10][11] Future Outlook - Companies are expected to balance expansion with cost control, with a focus on refining distribution channels as a new competitive dimension [11][13] - Emerging markets, particularly in the northwest, are becoming battlegrounds for companies seeking to increase their market share [11][13]

Core Insights - The food and beverage industry is gradually recovering, with structural highlights emerging, particularly in the liquor and consumer goods sectors [2][5][12] - Investment recommendations emphasize the importance of domestic demand recovery, suggesting a more optimistic outlook for investment opportunities in the food and beverage sector [12][13] Industry Overview Liquor Sector - Liquor companies are pragmatically lowering growth targets, focusing on healthy operations. Most companies have abandoned aggressive growth goals for 2024, instead aiming for stable operations [5][7] - The industry is entering a phase of inventory clearance, with expectations of gradual recovery in the second half of the year. Key players are advised to focus on channel health and payment quality [5][7] - Specific company insights include: - Moutai and Wuliangye are maintaining strong market positions, while other brands are adjusting strategies to manage inventory and pricing [7][8] - The overall growth target for the liquor industry has been adjusted to a range of 5% to 10% [7] Consumer Goods Sector - Traditional leaders in dairy, beer, and yeast are showing signs of recovery, while new business models are gaining traction [9][12] - Key insights from specific companies include: - Yili is expected to achieve revenue growth of 2.7% in 2025, with a focus on high-quality products [9][10] - Anqi Yeast is experiencing steady growth driven by overseas markets and cost advantages [10] - Modern Dairy anticipates double-digit growth in raw milk production, supported by improved operational efficiency [10] - The snack and beverage segments are highlighted as areas of potential growth, with recommendations for companies like Dongpeng and Salted Fish [12][13] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a focus on leading liquor brands as they begin to show signs of bottoming out, with recommendations for Moutai, Wuliangye, and Fenjiu [12][13] - In the consumer goods sector, there is an emphasis on snacks and beverages, with recommendations for companies like Dongpeng and Salted Fish, as well as a focus on the recovery of the beer and dairy sectors [12][13]

为进一步加强与投资者的互动交流，公司将参加由山西证监局、山西 省上市公司协会与深圳市全景网络有限公司联合举办的"山西辖区上市 公司2025年投资者网上集体接待日暨年报业绩说明会"，就公司2024年 度业绩、公司治理、发展战略、经营状况和可持续发展等投资者关心的问 题，与投资者进行沟通与交流。 1.活动时间：2025年5月20日（周二）15:00—17：00 2.活动方式：网络在线交流 本次活动将采用网络在线交流的方式举行，投资者可登录"全景路演" 网站（http://rs.p5w.net），或关注微信公众号"全景财经"，或下载 全景路演APP，参与本次互动交流。 1 公司副总经理、总会计师王怀先生，公司副总经理、汾酒销售公司执 行董事、总经理张永踊先生，公司董事会秘书许志峰先生，公司证券事务 代表张弛先生。 联系部门：董事会办公室 联系电话：0358-7329809 欢迎广大投资者积极参与。 特此公告 山西杏花村汾酒厂股份有限公司 董事会 2025年5月15日 2 ...

图为上市白酒企业2024年库存情况 2024年，白酒行业在"去库存"主基调与渠道生态重构中前行。中国酒业协会发布的《中国酒业高质量发展研究报告》指出，2024年，酒类高库存问题突出、 渠道终端举步维艰、价格倒挂现象严重、线上线下博弈加剧，到目前这一形势尚未扭转。 中国经济信息社分析师认为，未来白酒行业将存在价格带理性下移、线上线下渠道融合加速、加速个性化"走出去"三大特征。能够穿越周期的企业，必将是 既能在寒冬中保存实力，又能提前布局新生态的"理性乐观者"，建议白酒企业主动调节增长速度，紧跟消费趋势、重构价值链条、打造差异化优势，在存量 竞争中构建起独特优势。 新华财经北京5月12日电 2025年是"十四五"规划的收官之年，也是白酒行业转型升级的关键之年。近期，22家酒企公布2024年年报，数据显示，22家上市白 酒企业2024年实现营业收入4440.08亿元，同比增长7.62%；实现归母净利润1677.24亿元，同比增长6.79%。 | 证券名称 | 营业收入(亿元) | 同比增长率 | 归母净利润(亿元) | 同比增长率 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 贵州茅台 | ...

Core Viewpoint - The white liquor sector is expected to experience increased differentiation, with companies facing challenges in maintaining performance growth while ensuring healthy distribution channels. The overall financial performance of the sector is anticipated to remain under pressure in 2025, with solid companies likely to achieve stable growth, while weaker companies may continue to decline [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of May 13, 2025, the CSI Major Consumer Index (000932) rose by 0.05%, with key stocks such as Proya (603605) increasing by 2.69% and XinNuoWei (300765) by 1.96% [1]. - The Major Consumer ETF (159672) increased by 0.13%, with a latest price of 0.78 yuan and a turnover rate of 4% during the trading session, amounting to 3.36 million yuan [1]. - Over the past year, the average daily trading volume of the Major Consumer ETF was 5.69 million yuan [1]. Group 2: White Liquor Sector Insights - The white liquor industry is expected to show resilience over the long term, benefiting from economic recovery and increased consumption due to stimulus policies [2]. - The differentiation within the white liquor sector is projected to intensify, with companies needing to navigate performance challenges while maintaining healthy distribution channels [1][2]. Group 3: ETF Performance Metrics - The Major Consumer ETF has seen a significant growth of 1.56 million yuan in scale over the past two weeks, ranking in the top fifth among comparable funds [2]. - Since its inception, the Major Consumer ETF has recorded a highest single-month return of 24.35% and an average monthly return of 5.36% [2]. - As of May 12, 2025, the ETF's maximum drawdown this year was 5.57%, with a relative benchmark drawdown of 0.34% [3]. Group 4: Fee Structure and Tracking Accuracy - The management fee for the Major Consumer ETF is 0.50%, and the custody fee is 0.10%, which are among the lowest in comparable funds [4]. - The tracking error for the Major Consumer ETF over the past month was 0.014%, indicating the highest tracking precision among comparable funds [5]. Group 5: Valuation and Top Holdings - The latest price-to-earnings ratio (PE-TTM) for the CSI Major Consumer Index is 20.15, which is at a historical low, being below 89.64% of the time over the past year [5]. - As of April 30, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the CSI Major Consumer Index accounted for 67.16% of the index, including major players like Yili (600887) and Kweichow Moutai (600519) [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for the food and beverage sector [4][5][76] Core Views - The food and beverage sector is showing signs of seasonal demand recovery, particularly in functional beverages and other categories, indicating high market vitality [1][10] - The overall demand for liquor remains weak, with a consensus among liquor companies on slowing growth, highlighting the need for policies to stimulate domestic demand [2][10] - The beer industry is entering a phase of inventory replenishment and demand stabilization, with leading brands showing positive growth [13][14] - The snack food sector is experiencing a mixed performance, with some companies showing significant revenue growth while others face profitability challenges [15][16] - The condiment sector is performing well, with leading companies maintaining strong cash flow and exploring acquisitions to enhance market presence [16] - The frozen food sector is facing challenges due to a weak restaurant industry, but some companies are improving through acquisitions [17] - The dairy sector is expected to see a recovery in demand, supported by favorable policies and improved supply conditions [18] - The beverage sector is entering a peak season, with leading companies optimistic about maintaining growth [18] Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Insights - The food and beverage sector rose by 1.88% during the week of May 6 to May 9, 2025, slightly underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index [19] - The liquor sector is under pressure, with a reported revenue of CNY 442.23 billion for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 7.3% [2][10] - The beer sector's revenue grew by 3.7% year-on-year in Q1 2025, with leading brands like Yanjing and Zhujiang showing strong performance [13][14] 2. Key Data Tracking - The liquor index increased by 2.3% during the week, with policy measures boosting market confidence [12][19] - The snack food sector's revenue grew by 31% year-on-year in Q1 2025, although profitability faced challenges due to rising raw material costs [15][16] - The condiment sector's revenue for 2024 was CNY 92.8 billion, with a 3% year-on-year increase [16] 3. Company Profit Forecasts and Investment Ratings - Key companies such as Kweichow Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Luzhou Laojiao are rated as "Outperform the Market" with projected earnings per share (EPS) growth [4][5] - The report highlights the importance of digital transformation and market share expansion for companies like Luzhou Laojiao and Jinsuiyuan [2][10]

Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the food and beverage industry is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2] Core Viewpoints - The food and beverage industry is experiencing a mixed performance across various segments, with opportunities in new channels and product categories. The report highlights the need for companies to adapt to changing consumer preferences and market dynamics [5][6][7] Summary by Relevant Sections 1. Baijiu Sector - The baijiu sector achieved a total revenue of CNY 440.515 billion in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 6.89%, and a net profit of CNY 166.778 billion, up 7.50%. In Q1 2025, revenue was CNY 152.933 billion, growing 1.82%, and net profit was CNY 63.340 billion, increasing 2.33% [15][19] - High-end baijiu brands like Moutai, Wuliangye, and Luzhou Laojiao are expected to see stable growth targets of around 9%, 5%, and steady progress respectively for 2025 [19][21] - The report notes that companies are increasing dividend rates to enhance returns for investors, with expected dividend yields for major brands ranging from 1.39% to 6.28% in 2025 [18] 2. Frozen Food - The frozen food industry is facing a slowdown in growth, with leading companies like Anjijia showing resilience while others like Qianwei Central Kitchen are under pressure due to product structure. The industry is seeking breakthroughs in products and channels to improve revenue and profit [6] 3. Snack Foods - The snack food sector is experiencing differentiation, with leading companies leveraging product innovation and channel expansion to drive growth. Salted Fish's brand "Big Demon King" has shown significant results from brand investment [6] 4. Soft Drinks - The soft drink segment is seeing high growth from brands like Dongpeng, while companies like LuLu and Master Kong maintain operational resilience. New products in the health drink category are also performing well [6] 5. Pet Food - The pet food industry remains highly prosperous, with leading companies like Guibao Pet and Zhongchong Co. showing revenue growth rates of 21.22% and 19.15% respectively in 2024 [7] 6. Bakery Products - The bakery sector is recovering, with significant growth in supermarket channels driven by new product launches. Companies like Angel Yeast are expanding their international business, contributing to overall growth [8] 7. Dairy Products - Yili's revenue is stabilizing with better-than-expected profit performance, while New Dairy is seeing continuous profit margin improvements. Yili aims for a total revenue of CNY 119 billion in 2025 [8] 8. Beer - The beer market is witnessing a recovery in consumption, with major brands like Qingdao Beer and Chongqing Beer showing positive sales growth in Q1 2025 [9] 9. Seasoning Products - The seasoning industry is under pressure, but companies like Haitian are performing steadily, with core products like soy sauce maintaining growth [9]

Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the food and beverage industry is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2] Core Viewpoints - The food and beverage industry is experiencing a mixed performance across various segments, with opportunities in new channels and product categories. The report highlights the need for companies to adapt to changing consumer preferences and market dynamics [5][6][7] Summary by Sections 1. Baijiu Sector - The baijiu sector achieved a total revenue of CNY 440.515 billion in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 6.89%, and a net profit of CNY 166.778 billion, up 7.50%. In Q1 2025, the sector's revenue was CNY 152.933 billion, growing 1.82%, with a net profit of CNY 63.340 billion, up 2.33% [15][19] - High-end baijiu brands like Moutai, Wuliangye, and Luzhou Laojiao are expected to see stable growth targets of around 9%, 5%, and steady progress respectively for 2025 [19][21] - The report notes that companies are increasing dividend rates to enhance returns to investors, with expected dividend yields for 2025 ranging from 1.39% to 6.28% across various brands [18][20] 2. Consumer Goods - The frozen food sector is facing a slowdown in growth, with leading companies like Anjijia showing resilience while others struggle due to intense price competition [6] - The snack food industry is diversifying through new channels such as e-commerce and overseas markets, with companies like Yanjinpuzi achieving significant growth through brand investment [6] - The soft drink segment is witnessing strong growth from brands like Dongpeng, while other established brands maintain operational resilience [6] 3. Pet Food - The pet food industry is maintaining high growth, with leading companies like Guibao Pet and Zhongchong Co. reporting revenue growth rates of 21.22% and 19.15% respectively in 2024 [7] 4. Bakery Products - The bakery sector is recovering, with significant growth in the supermarket channel, particularly for new products from brands like Sam's Club [8] 5. Dairy Products - Yili's revenue is stabilizing with better-than-expected profit performance, while New Dairy is seeing continuous profit margin improvements [8] 6. Beer - The beer market is showing signs of recovery, with major brands like Qingdao Beer and Chongqing Beer reporting volume increases in Q1 2025 [9] 7. Seasoning Products - The seasoning industry is under pressure, but companies like Haitian are performing steadily, with core products like soy sauce showing robust growth [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a cautious outlook for the food and beverage industry in 2025, with a focus on growth sectors such as beverages, snacks, and pet food, while highlighting the stable performance of high-end liquor and regional leaders [1][15]. Core Insights - The financial reporting season has concluded, showing a mixed performance across the industry, with high-end liquor under pressure and a stable overall sales performance for mass-market products in April [1][15]. - Key companies are expected to see improvements in Q2, particularly in dairy and snack sectors, while the liquor segment continues to face challenges [1][15]. - The report emphasizes the importance of shareholder meetings as potential catalysts for positive changes within companies [15]. Summary by Sections Core Company Tracking - Shede Liquor is experiencing significant pressure in Q2, with a notable increase in demand for its main products in banquet settings, but still facing challenges in business scenarios [2][10]. - Water Well is also under pressure in Q2, with a clear decline in seasonal demand, but is expanding its store network significantly [2][10]. - Yili Group is showing signs of improvement in Q2, driven by strong sales in infant and adult milk powder products [2][11]. - Zhongchong Co. is maintaining high growth in its proprietary brands and expanding overseas production capacity [3][11]. - Ximai Foods is achieving rapid online growth and improving gross margins, with a focus on maintaining double-digit growth offline [3][12]. - New Dairy is performing well in the low-temperature segment, with a strong growth trajectory expected [3][13]. - Morning Light Bio is seeing a recovery in core products and is focusing on diversified development strategies [3][14]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on growth sectors, particularly in liquor, dairy, snacks, and pet food, with specific recommendations for companies like Guizhou Moutai and Yili Group [7][16]. - It highlights the potential for improved sales and structural changes in Qingdao Beer and emphasizes the importance of seasonal demand recovery for brands like Nongfu Spring [7][16]. - The report also recommends strong players in the seasoning sector, such as Haitian Flavoring, and suggests monitoring companies like Zhongchong Co. for their overseas expansion capabilities [7][16].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the food and beverage industry [9] Core Views - The recent interest rate cuts are expected to boost market liquidity and improve market sentiment, particularly benefiting the liquor sector [7] - The white liquor sector is showing signs of recovery, with demand stabilizing and companies focusing on optimizing channels and brand cultivation for growth [7] - The overall valuation of the liquor sector is considered low, with many companies engaging in share buybacks and increasing dividend payouts [7] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - In the past month, the food and beverage sector has shown a slight increase of 0.1%, while the Shanghai Composite Index has increased by 2.6% [3] Market News - China's beer export value increased by 8.3% in the first quarter of 2025 [18] - The white liquor industry in Lüliang aims for an output value exceeding 13.2 billion yuan in the first half of 2025 [18] - The EU's total export value of alcoholic beverages is projected to reach 29.8 billion euros in 2024 [18] Investment Insights - The report highlights two main lines for investment recommendations in the liquor sector: companies with valuation advantages and those expected to perform well throughout the year [7] - Recommended companies include: Water Well, Shanxi Fenjiu, Shede Liquor, and Jiu Gui Liquor for valuation advantages; and Wuliangye, Luzhou Laojiao, Shanxi Fenjiu, Jinshiyuan, Gujing Gongjiu, and Yingjia Gongjiu for overall recommendations [7] Key Company Feedback - The report provides earnings forecasts for several companies, indicating a positive outlook for major players in the liquor sector, with expected earnings per share (EPS) growth for companies like Luzhou Laojiao and Gujing Gongjiu [11] Industry Data Trends - The cumulative production of white liquor in 2024 is reported at 4.145 million tons, a decrease of 7.72% year-on-year [37] - The revenue of the white liquor industry in 2023 reached 756.3 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 9.7% [37] - The seasoning industry has seen a market scale growth from 259.5 billion yuan in 2014 to 592.3 billion yuan in 2023, with a CAGR of 9.6% [41]