石化周报 加沙停火，原油地缘溢价效应减弱 2025 年 10 月 11 日 ➢ 加沙停火，原油地缘溢价效应减弱。由于特朗普 9 月 29 日宣布以色列总理 已同意美方就结束加沙冲突提出的"20 点计划"，从而十一假期期间油价表现走 弱；10 月 10 日，以色列国防军发表声明，加沙停火第一阶段协议已于当地 10 日中午 12 时（北京时间 17 时）生效，中东局部停火导致原油所包含的地缘溢价 效应减弱。OPEC+方面，10 月 1 日第 62 次 JMMC 会议召开，伊朗、科威特、 阿联酋、哈萨克斯坦、阿曼、俄罗斯更新了 25 年 9 月至 26 年 6 月的补偿减产 计划，其中，25 年 9~12 月计划补偿减产 23.2、20.3、26.6、30.3 万桶/日，第 63 次 JMMC 会议将于 11 月 30 日举行；10 月 5 日，此前自愿减产的八个 OPEC+ 国家宣布将逐步取消 165 万桶/日的减产，11 月份将率先进行 13.7 万桶/日的增 产，且下一次八国会议将于 11 月 2 日举行。我们认为，目前的地缘形式下， OPEC+的补偿减产仍需持续跟踪，若补偿减产能够有效兑现，则油价仍具备较强 ...

Core Insights - In September 2025, the average price of Brent crude oil futures was $67.6 per barrel, a month-on-month increase of $0.3 per barrel, while the WTI crude oil futures averaged $63.6 per barrel, a decrease of $0.4 per barrel [2][3] - Geopolitical tensions, including the U.S. attack on Venezuelan vessels and ongoing conflicts involving Israel and Russia, have contributed to fluctuations in oil prices, alongside OPEC+'s decision to extend production increases [2][3] Oil Price Review - Brent crude oil futures closed at $67.0 per barrel at the end of September, while WTI crude oil futures closed at $72.4 per barrel [2] - The U.S. significantly increased its crude oil exports, leading to a reduction in inventory levels, despite seasonal refinery maintenance impacting demand [2][3] Supply and Demand Dynamics - OPEC+ announced an extension of production increases for October and November, with a collective reduction target extended until the end of 2026 [3] - Major energy agencies project an increase in global oil demand, with estimates for 2025 ranging from 74,000 to 130,000 barrels per day [3] Industry Policy Developments - A joint announcement from seven ministries in China outlined a plan to stabilize growth in the petrochemical industry, emphasizing strict controls on new refining capacity [4][5] - The plan aims to optimize supply-side conditions in the refining and chemical sectors, amidst global uncertainties [5] Price Forecasts - The expected price range for Brent crude oil in 2025 is between $65 and $75 per barrel, while WTI crude oil is projected to be between $60 and $70 per barrel [5] Recommended Stocks - Key investment recommendations include China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), China Petroleum, Satellite Chemical, and CNOOC Development [6]

Investment Rating - The oil and gas industry is rated as "Outperform" [6] Core Views - Oil prices experienced wide fluctuations in September due to geopolitical tensions and OPEC+ production policies, with Brent crude averaging $67.6 per barrel and WTI averaging $63.6 per barrel [2][14] - OPEC+ announced an extension of production increases for October and November, aiming to gradually lift voluntary production cuts established earlier [3][18] - Major energy agencies project an increase in global oil demand, with expected growth of 740,000 to 1.3 million barrels per day in 2025 and 700,000 to 1.38 million barrels per day in 2026 [4][19] Summary by Sections Oil Price Review - In September, Brent crude futures averaged $67.6 per barrel, up $0.3 from the previous month, while WTI averaged $63.6 per barrel, down $0.4 [2][14] - Geopolitical events, including U.S. actions against Venezuela and conflicts in the Middle East, contributed to price volatility [2][14] Supply Side Analysis - OPEC+ plans to continue increasing production, with a collective reduction target extended to 2026 and voluntary cuts to be gradually lifted [3][18] - The group has increased production by 41,100 barrels per day in May, June, and July, and by 54,800 barrels per day in August and September [3][18] Demand Side Analysis - Forecasts indicate that oil demand will rise in 2025, with OPEC, IEA, and EIA projecting demand increases of 130,000 to 1.05 million barrels per day [4][19] - The demand for oil is expected to continue growing into 2026, with similar projections for increased consumption [4][19] Industry Policy and Outlook - China's petrochemical industry is facing overcapacity, leading to stricter controls on new refining projects and a focus on optimizing supply [5][20] - The expected price range for Brent crude in 2025 is projected to be between $65 and $75 per barrel, while WTI is expected to range from $60 to $70 per barrel [5][20] Company Performance and Recommendations - Key companies such as CNOOC, PetroChina, Satellite Chemical, and CNOOC Development are recommended for investment, all rated as "Outperform" [6][5]

证券之星消息，10月10日油气开采板块较上一交易日上涨1.52%，*ST新潮领涨。当日上证指数报收于 3897.03，下跌0.94%。深证成指报收于13355.42，下跌2.7%。油气开采板块个股涨跌见下表： | 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 600777 | *ST新潮 | 3.90 | 2.90% | 65.19万 | | 2.57 Z | | 000968 | 蓝焰控股 | 7.16 | 1.99% | 20.69万 | | 1.47 乙 | | 600938 | 與奧圖士 | 26.77 | 1.13% | 64.27万 | | 17.27 Z | | 600759 | 洲际油气 | 2.33 | 0.87% | 145.89万 | | 3.39 Z | 以上内容为证券之星据公开信息整理，由AI算法生成（网信算备310104345710301240019号），不构成投资建议。 | 代码 | 名称 | 主力净流入 (元) | | | 主力净占比 游资净流入 ( ...

福建LNG接收站：优化工序保证工期 双节不停工 建设抢进度 国庆中秋双节期间，福建省石化行业多个重点项目不停工，建设者全力以赴抢工期、抓安全、保质量， 以奋斗之姿为"十四五"收官画上完美句号。 古雷石化基地：机械轰鸣焊花闪烁 双节期间，福建省和中国石化重点项目、总投资超40亿元的中石化南化苯胺—橡胶助剂产业链项目建设 现场依旧机械轰鸣、焊花闪烁，2000多名工人坚守在岗位一线，一派热火朝天的奋战景象。 "作为一名南京人，能跨越千里来到古雷，参与中石化这一重点项目的建设，并亲眼见证它在我和同事 们手中一天天'成长'，我感到非常荣幸。"该项目助剂分部施工负责人刘亚军说，自项目开工以来，他 便从南京远赴古雷，以前能每天相见的家人，如今几个月才能团聚一次。但看着这个重点项目从无到 有、拔地而起，他心中充满了自豪与成就感。 该项目落户古雷，是南化公司到异地升级优势产业的关键之举，项目于去年启动，目前已全面进入设备 安装高峰期，预计2026年建成投产。项目投产后将与南京原址项目共同形成苯胺、橡胶助剂、甲基异丁 基酮细分领域行业最大的产能，增强了苯系列特色精细化工产业链竞争力，为古雷开发区稳链固链、强 链补链贡献重要力量。 ...

Core Insights - The recent exclusive three-year supplier qualification awarded to Baoshi Pipe Industry by CNOOC highlights the collaborative advantages of China's oil and gas high-end energy equipment industry [1][2] - The successful bid reflects CNOOC's recognition of Baoshi Pipe's reliable high-end product technology and customized service capabilities [1] Group 1: Market Position and Strategy - Continuous oil pipes are deemed "critical vessels" for oil and gas exploration and development, directly impacting operational efficiency and safety in complex scenarios such as deep-sea and unconventional oil and gas [1] - Baoshi Pipe Industry positioned this bidding as an annual strategic project, leveraging China National Petroleum Corporation's integrated resource advantages [1] Group 2: Team Structure and Innovation - A specialized team was formed, consisting of R&D, marketing, and service personnel, to address technical pain points in deep-sea and shale gas operations [1] - The R&D team focused on optimizing core indicators such as fatigue resistance and corrosion resistance, leading to innovative customized product solutions [1] Group 3: Marketing and Service Approach - The marketing team engaged deeply with CNOOC's operational sites to understand specific technical challenges [1] - A comprehensive approach was established, involving "technical docking - solution iteration - service assurance" to create a full-chain attack matrix, ultimately achieving a differentiated advantage for the exclusive bid [1] Group 4: Impact on Industry - This three-year exclusive cooperation signifies a milestone in Baoshi Pipe's commitment to user-centric service and enhances the "R&D-manufacturing-application" closed loop in the high-end energy equipment sector [2] - The partnership is expected to strengthen the resilience of the industrial supply chain and inject robust momentum into the exploration and development of national oil and gas resources [2]

Core Viewpoint - China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) announced the progress of its actual controller's shareholding increase plan, which aims to enhance shareholder confidence and stabilize the stock price amid market fluctuations [2][6]. Group 1: Shareholding Increase Plan - CNOOC's actual controller, China National Offshore Oil Group, plans to increase its shareholding by investing between RMB 20 billion and RMB 40 billion over a 12-month period starting from April 9, 2025 [2][3]. - As of October 8, 2025, the actual controller has acquired 22,098,000 shares of CNOOC's Hong Kong stock, representing 0.05% of the total share capital, with a total investment of RMB 331,506,654 (excluding taxes) [2][6]. - The implementation of the shareholding increase plan may be affected by changes in the capital market and other unpredictable risk factors [4][6]. Group 2: Dividend Distribution - CNOOC announced a mid-term dividend distribution for 2025, with a cash dividend of RMB 0.66612 per A-share (including tax) [9][12]. - The total cash dividend distribution amounts to RMB 1,991,698,800 (including tax), based on 2,990,000,000 A-shares [12][14]. - The dividend will be distributed to all A-share shareholders registered with the China Securities Depository and Clearing Corporation Limited [10][12].

实施进展： 关键风险提示： 其他要点： 增持主体：中国海洋石油集团有限公司（实际控制人） 增持期间：2025年4月9日至2026年4月8日（12个月） 计划增持金额：20-40亿元人民币 中国海油实际控制人增持进展公告要点解读 增持计划概况： 截至2025年10月8日，已通过港股通增持港股22,098,000股 累计增持金额：3.32亿元（不含税费） 增持股份占总股本比例：0.05% 增持计划期间已过半，但实际增持金额未达计划下限50% 主要受股票市场价格波动及资本市场整体趋势影响 集团承诺将继续择机增持，并在增持期间及法定期限内不减持 增持方式：港股通集中竞价交易 资金来源：自有资金 不会导致控股股东及实际控制人变化 ...

格隆汇10月9日丨中国海油(600938.SH)公布，截至2025年10月8日，中国海油集团累计增持公司港股股 份2209.8万股，占公司总股本的0.05%，增持金额为人民币3.32亿元（不含税费）。 ...

中国海洋石油(00883)发布公告，于2025年4月9日至2025年10月8日期间，公司实际控制人中国海油 （600938）集团通过港股通交易系统累计增持公司港股股份2209.8万股，约占公司已发行股份总数的 0.05%，增持金额累计人民币3.32亿元( 含税费)。上述增持实施后，中国海油集团及其一致行动人直接 或间接持有公司合计395.3亿股股份，约占公司已发行股份总数的62.13%。 ...