Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Nanjing Bank [2] Core Views - Nanjing Bank's revenue continues to show a "U-shaped" improvement, with significant shareholder buybacks indicating recognition of the bank's value [5][12] - The bank's net interest income has accelerated, contributing to revenue growth, while non-interest income has declined due to rising bond market rates [7][12] - The bank's asset quality remains stable, with a slight decrease in the non-performing loan ratio and an increase in the provision coverage ratio [5][12] Financial Performance Summary - For the first nine months of 2025, Nanjing Bank achieved a revenue of 419 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.8%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 180 billion yuan, up 8.1% year-on-year [5][12] - The bank's net interest income grew by 28.5% year-on-year, significantly contributing to revenue growth [7][12] - The non-performing loan ratio decreased to 0.83%, with a provision coverage ratio of 313% [5][12] Revenue and Profitability Forecast - Projected total revenue for 2025 is 54,368.34 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 8.15% [6] - Estimated net profit for 2025 is 21,811.77 million yuan, reflecting an 8.10% year-on-year increase [6] - The bank's return on equity (ROE) is expected to be 12.13% in 2025 [6] Shareholder Activity - Major shareholders have actively increased their holdings, with nearly 12 billion yuan in buybacks in the first three quarters of 2025, indicating strong confidence in the bank's long-term value [7][12] Loan Growth and Business Segments - Total loans increased by 14% year-on-year, with corporate loans growing over 15% [7][12] - Retail loans also showed steady growth, with a year-on-year increase of 11% [7][12] Cost and Efficiency - The cost-to-income ratio has improved, contributing positively to profit growth [7][12] - The bank's net interest margin is estimated to have widened by 11 basis points to 1.44% [12]

Market Performance - The city commercial bank sector increased by 0.01% compared to the previous trading day, with Xiamen Bank leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3988.22, down by 0.22%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13430.1, down by 0.44% [1] Individual Bank Performance - Xiamen Bank's closing price was 7.15, with a rise of 5.46% and a trading volume of 582,400 shares, amounting to a transaction value of 412 million yuan [1] - Chongqing Bank closed at 10.67, up by 2.11%, with a trading volume of 225,000 shares [1] - Chengdu Bank's closing price was 18.11, increasing by 0.84% with a trading volume of 314,100 shares [1] - Other banks such as Changsha Bank, Lanzhou Bank, and Jiangsu Bank showed minimal changes in their stock prices [1] Capital Flow Analysis - The city commercial bank sector saw a net inflow of 223 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of 356 million yuan [2] - The main capital inflow was observed in banks like Nanjing Bank and Chengdu Bank, with significant net inflows from institutional investors [3] - Retail investors showed a negative net flow in several banks, indicating a cautious sentiment among smaller investors [3]

Core Insights - Nanjing Bank has shown steady growth in its financial performance for the first three quarters of 2025, with a revenue of 41.949 billion RMB, marking an 8.79% year-on-year increase, and a net profit of 18.005 billion RMB, up 8.06% year-on-year [1] Financial Performance - For Q3 2025, Nanjing Bank reported a revenue of 13.469 billion RMB, reflecting a 9.12% year-on-year growth, and a net profit of 5.386 billion RMB, which is a 6.26% increase year-on-year [1] - The bank's net interest income reached 25.207 billion RMB, a significant increase of 28.52% year-on-year, accounting for 60.09% of total revenue [1] - Non-interest income totaled 16.742 billion RMB, showing a decline of 11.63% year-on-year, making up 39.91% of total revenue [1] Asset and Liability Growth - As of September 2025, Nanjing Bank's total assets exceeded 2.96 trillion RMB, an increase of 370.908 billion RMB or 14.31% from the previous year [2] - Total liabilities reached 2.75 trillion RMB, growing by 347.373 billion RMB or 14.48% year-on-year [2] - Total deposits amounted to 1.64 trillion RMB, up 144.383 billion RMB or 9.65% year-on-year [2] - Total loans increased to 1.41 trillion RMB, reflecting a growth of 155.083 billion RMB or 12.34% year-on-year [2] Business Segment Performance - In corporate banking, the loan balance reached 1.07 trillion RMB, an increase of 136.931 billion RMB or 14.63% year-on-year, with notable growth in green finance (33.03%), technology finance (17.47%), inclusive finance (16.16%), and agricultural loans (7.80%) [2] - Retail banking assets grew to 968.695 billion RMB, a rise of 141.752 billion RMB or 17.14% year-on-year [2] - The retail segment generated revenue of 11.702 billion RMB, with a year-on-year growth rate of 22.10%, and profit of 1.622 billion RMB, indicating significant revenue growth [2] Financial Market and Asset Quality - The asset management business reached a scale of 3.97 trillion RMB, growing by 16.42% year-on-year [3] - The non-performing loan ratio stood at 0.83%, unchanged from the beginning of the year, with a provision coverage ratio of 313.22%, down 22.05 percentage points from the start of the year [3] - The individual loan non-performing rate was 1.33%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous quarter [3] Dividend Distribution - Nanjing Bank announced a cash dividend distribution plan, proposing a cash dividend of 0.3062 RMB per share (before tax), totaling 3.7857 billion RMB, which represents 30% of the net profit for the first half of 2025 [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, Nanjing Bank, with an expected price-to-book (PB) ratio of 0.77 times for 2025 and a dividend yield of approximately 4.6% [11]. Core Insights - Nanjing Bank's revenue continues to show a "U-shaped" improvement, with a 8.8% year-on-year growth in revenue for the first nine months of 2025, and an 8.1% increase in net profit attributable to shareholders [5][11]. - The bank's non-performing loan (NPL) ratio decreased to 0.83% in the third quarter of 2025, reflecting stable asset quality and proactive write-offs [11]. - Major shareholders have actively increased their holdings, indicating confidence in the bank's long-term value, with nearly 12 billion yuan of shares bought back in the first three quarters [7][11]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue and Profitability**: - Total revenue for 9M25 reached 419 billion yuan, up 8.8% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 180 billion yuan, reflecting an 8.1% increase [5][11]. - Net interest income grew by 28.5% year-on-year, contributing significantly to revenue growth [7][11]. - **Cost and Efficiency**: - The cost-to-income ratio improved, contributing to profit growth, with a decrease in operating expenses [7][11]. - The bank's return on equity (ROE) for 2025 is projected at 12.13%, with a gradual decline expected in subsequent years [6][11]. - **Asset Quality**: - The provision coverage ratio improved to 313% in Q3 2025, indicating strong risk mitigation capabilities [11]. - The bank's total assets grew by 16.3% year-on-year, with loans increasing by 14.1% [11]. - **Future Outlook**: - The bank's net profit growth is forecasted at 8.1% for 2025, with slight adjustments to future growth expectations due to base effects [11].

Core Viewpoint - Nanjing Bank's revenue and net profit for Q1 to Q3 of 2025 have shown year-on-year growth of 8.8% and 8.1% respectively, driven by accelerated core revenue growth [1] Financial Performance - Nanjing Bank's Q3 revenue maintains high growth, primarily due to the acceleration in core revenue [1] - For the full year, Nanjing Bank is expected to continue achieving significant single-digit growth in revenue and profit, supported by rapid balance sheet expansion and stable interest margins [1] Interest Margin Analysis - The interest margin for Q3 2025 has rebounded by 19 basis points to 1.50%, benefiting from improvements in asset yield and liability cost rate [1] - Given that Nanjing Bank's liability cost is at a relatively high level among listed city commercial banks, there is substantial room for improvement, which is likely to support the stability of the interest margin [1] Dividend Policy - Nanjing Bank announced a mid-term dividend plan with a payout ratio of 30%, consistent with the expected level for the entire year of 2024 [1] - The current price corresponds to a 2025 dividend yield of 4.7%, and the mid-term dividend is anticipated to be distributed within the year, based on last year's dividend timing [1] Price Target and Rating - The target price for Nanjing Bank is set at 14.64 CNY per share, corresponding to a price-to-book ratio of 1.00 for 2025, indicating a potential upside of 29% from the current price [1] - The rating for Nanjing Bank is maintained at "Buy" [1]

Core Viewpoint - Nanjing Bank's Q3 2025 report highlights robust growth in key operational metrics, demonstrating resilience and high-quality development amid a complex external environment, aligning with national and regional development strategies [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Total assets reached CNY 2.96 trillion, a 14.31% increase from the previous year [2] - Total liabilities grew to CNY 2.75 trillion, up 14.48% year-on-year [2] - Deposits increased to CNY 1.64 trillion, a growth of 9.65%, while loans reached CNY 1.41 trillion, up 12.34% [2] - Operating income was CNY 419.49 billion, an 8.79% year-on-year increase, with net interest income rising by 28.5% to CNY 252.07 billion [2] - Net profit attributable to shareholders was CNY 180 billion, reflecting an 8.06% increase [2] - Non-performing loan ratio remained stable at 0.83%, with a cost-to-income ratio of 23.27%, down 4.81 percentage points from the previous year [2] - Provision coverage ratio stood at 313.22%, and core Tier 1 capital adequacy ratio was 9.54%, indicating strong capital and risk absorption capacity [2] Group 2: Business Segments - Focused on three main business segments: corporate finance, retail finance, and financial markets, enhancing comprehensive financial service capabilities [3] - Corporate finance loans reached CNY 1.07 trillion, with a growth rate exceeding 14.6%, and medium to long-term loans for manufacturing increased by 31.56% [3] - Technology finance loans amounted to CNY 174.28 billion, a 17.5% increase, with various innovative products launched to support enterprises [4] - Inclusive finance served 200,000 small and micro enterprises, with inclusive loan balances growing over 16.1% to CNY 156.1 billion [4] - Green finance loans increased by CNY 667.7 billion, a growth of over 33%, with more than 5,500 green loan clients [5] - Retail financial assets reached CNY 968.7 billion, up 17.1%, with personal deposits growing by 18.6% to CNY 565.17 billion [6] Group 3: Market Recognition and Strategic Partnerships - Major shareholders, including Nanjing High-Tech and Zijin Trust, have increased their stakes, reflecting confidence in the bank's stable operations and future growth [8] - Nanjing Bank celebrated its 20th anniversary of strategic cooperation with BNP Paribas, signing a new memorandum to deepen collaboration across multiple dimensions [8] - The bank received strong recommendations from various securities firms, maintaining a high dividend payout ratio of 30% of net profit [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 41.9 billion with a year-on-year growth of 8.8% and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 18 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 8.1% [3][4]. - The annualized weighted average return on equity (ROE) for the first three quarters was 14.04%, a decrease of 1.04 percentage points year-on-year [3]. Revenue and Profit Growth - Revenue, pre-provision profit, and net profit attributable to shareholders for the first three quarters grew by 8.8%, 11.7%, and 8.1% respectively, with revenue growth accelerating compared to the first half of 2025 [4]. - The net interest income and non-interest income growth rates were 28.5% and -11.6%, respectively, indicating a strong performance in net interest income [4]. Loan and Deposit Trends - As of the end of Q3 2025, the company's interest-earning assets and loans grew by 26.2% and 14.1% year-on-year, respectively [5]. - The company added 155.1 billion in loans during the first three quarters, with corporate loans seeing a significant increase [6]. Non-Interest Income and Fee-Based Revenue - Non-interest income for the first three quarters was 16.7 billion, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 11.6% [9]. - The retail segment's revenue grew by 22% year-on-year, with significant growth in wealth management and retail financial assets [9]. Asset Quality and Capital Adequacy - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio remained low at 0.83%, with a provision coverage ratio of 313% [10]. - The company's capital adequacy ratios showed improvement, with the core tier one capital ratio at 9.54% as of Q3 2025 [10]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to have earnings per share (EPS) of 1.79, 1.91, and 1.98 for 2025 to 2027, with corresponding price-to-book (PB) ratios of 0.80, 0.73, and 0.67 [11][12].

Core Insights - Nanjing Bank reported a total asset of 2.96 trillion yuan as of September 2025, marking a 14.31% increase from the end of the previous year, approaching the 3 trillion yuan threshold [1][2] - The bank achieved a revenue of 41.949 billion yuan and a net profit of 18.141 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, with year-on-year growth rates of 8.79% and 8.2% respectively, although the growth rates have declined compared to 2024 [1][2] - The bank's financial investment assets reached 1.3 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 21.5%, which is higher than the growth rates of total assets and loans [1][3] Financial Performance - Nanjing Bank's net interest income increased by 28.52% to 25.207 billion yuan, significantly up from a growth rate of 4.62% in 2024, and accounted for 60.09% of total revenue, an increase of 7.13 percentage points from the previous year [2] - Non-interest income from fees and commissions rose to 3.802 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.52%, marking a return to positive growth after three consecutive years of decline [3] Investment Income - The bank's investment income for the first three quarters of 2025 was 12.855 billion yuan, an increase of 2.284 billion yuan or 21.61% year-on-year, primarily driven by the realization of gains from previous bond investments [3] - However, fair value changes resulted in a loss of 330 million yuan, a significant decline from a profit of 4.68 billion yuan in the same period last year, leading to a combined decrease in investment income and fair value changes of 2.73 billion yuan [3] Asset Quality - As of September 2025, Nanjing Bank maintained a non-performing loan ratio of 0.83%, unchanged from the end of the previous year, indicating stable asset quality [4] - The bank's provision coverage ratio decreased to 313.22%, down 22.05 percentage points from the previous year, although it remains at a relatively high level [4] - The core Tier 1 capital adequacy ratio improved slightly to 9.54%, up 0.18 percentage points from the end of the previous year [4]

Group 1: Macroeconomic Insights - In September, industrial enterprises' profits improved year-on-year to 21.6%, up from 20.4% in August, driven by a low base effect and strong export performance [3] - Revenue growth for industrial enterprises also increased to 3.1% in September from 2.3% in August, indicating a positive trend in cash flow due to anti-involution policies [3] Group 2: Fixed Income Market Analysis - The bond market has shown signs of recovery in October, influenced by trade tensions and a loose liquidity environment, with expectations for a better fourth quarter compared to the third [5] - The market anticipates a controlled impact from new redemption regulations, with a focus on short to medium-term credit bonds as a primary investment strategy [5] Group 3: Oil and Gas Sector - Oil prices have entered a downward trend due to OPEC+ increasing production targets and seasonal demand decline, with Brent crude expected to average $68 in 2025 and $62 in 2026 [9] - Despite short-term volatility from geopolitical tensions, the long-term outlook suggests limited impact from sanctions on oil prices, with high-dividend energy companies presenting investment opportunities [9] Group 4: Real Estate and Construction - The real estate market is experiencing a decline in transaction volumes for both new and second-hand homes, attributed to high base effects and seasonal factors [8] - The construction sector shows mixed signals, with some recovery in cement supply and demand, while asphalt production rates have decreased [8] Group 5: Key Company Performances - Beike-W (2423 HK) is projected to benefit from a gradual market recovery, with a target price of HKD 65.64 based on a 26x PE ratio for 2026 [11] - Zhiou Technology (301376 CH) reported a revenue of CNY 60.8 billion for the first three quarters, with a year-on-year growth of 6.2%, and is expected to improve profitability as tariff risks ease [12] - Tianhai Defense (300008 CH) showed significant growth in Q3, with a revenue increase of 57.27% year-on-year, driven by strong orders in shipbuilding and defense sectors [14] - Kuka Home (603816 CH) reported steady revenue growth of 6.5% in Q3, with a focus on global expansion and brand strength [15] - Weixing New Materials (002372 CH) experienced a revenue decline of 9.83% in Q3, but is expected to see margin recovery as product prices stabilize [16] Group 6: Consumer Goods and Services - Salted Fish (002847 CH) reported a revenue increase of 14.7% year-on-year, with a focus on optimizing product categories and channels to enhance profitability [27] - Petty Co. (300673 CH) continues to see strong growth in its domestic brand, with a focus on single product strategies despite challenges in overseas markets [18] - Jiangsu Bank (601009 CH) reported a steady growth in net profit and revenue, driven by stable interest income and effective cost management [32]

Core Insights - Nanjing Bank (601009.SH) reported a total operating revenue of 41.949 billion yuan for Q3 2025, an increase of 3.391 billion yuan compared to the same period last year, marking a year-on-year growth of 8.79% and achieving five consecutive years of growth [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 18.005 billion yuan, up by 1.342 billion yuan year-on-year, also achieving five consecutive years of growth with a year-on-year increase of 8.06% [1] - The net cash inflow from operating activities was 174.519 billion yuan, an increase of 249.078 billion yuan compared to the same period last year [1] Financial Ratios - The latest debt-to-asset ratio stands at 92.73%, a decrease of 0.03 percentage points from the previous quarter and a decrease of 0.11 percentage points from the same period last year [3] - The latest return on equity (ROE) is 8.50% [3] - The diluted earnings per share (EPS) is 1.54 yuan, an increase of 1.07 yuan year-on-year, achieving two consecutive years of growth with a year-on-year increase of 227.66% [3] - The total asset turnover ratio is 0.02 times [3] Shareholder Structure - The number of shareholders is 76,800, with the top ten shareholders holding a total of 8.447 billion shares, accounting for 68.32% of the total share capital [3] - The top ten shareholders and their holdings are as follows: - BNP Paribas (including QFII): 1.714 billion shares - Jiangsu Transportation Holding Co., Ltd.: 1.42 billion shares - Nanjing Zijin Investment Group Co., Ltd.: 1.07 billion shares - Nanjing Gaoke Co., Ltd.: 1.00 billion shares - China Tobacco Jiangsu Company: 0.381 billion shares - Happiness Life Insurance Co., Ltd.: 0.329 billion shares - Zijin Trust Co., Ltd.: 0.275 billion shares - Eastern Airport Group Investment Co., Ltd.: 0.233 billion shares - China Life Insurance Co., Ltd.: 0.208 billion shares - Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited: 0.194 billion shares [3]