Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the non-bank financial sector [6]. Core Insights - The insurance industry is expected to benefit from the trend of bank deposits moving to insurance products, with a positive outlook for the liability side performance in 2026 due to successful short-term sales initiatives. The introduction of a tiered product pricing structure is anticipated to significantly alleviate the risk of interest spread losses. The "reporting and operation integration" is expected to promote industry consolidation and enhance the concentration of leading companies [4][31]. - The securities sector is experiencing a rise in market risk appetite and sustained high trading activity, benefiting from both valuation and performance attributes [4][31]. - Key companies to watch include China Ping An, China Life, China Pacific Insurance, Guotai Junan, and Huatai Securities [4][31]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Dynamics - The insurance sector is undergoing a systematic upgrade in asset-liability management, with new regulations requiring comprehensive coverage, reasonable matching, and robust supervision. The new rules include three mandatory indicators for property insurance companies, all of which must not fall below 100% [1][2]. - The report highlights the performance of listed insurance companies, with New China Life reporting a cumulative premium income of 188.85 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16% [14]. 2. Securities - The public fund performance benchmark reform has been initiated, focusing on the transformation of existing products and ensuring a smooth transition without drastic changes to holdings. The reform aims to enhance the attractiveness of the capital market [18]. - The average daily trading volume of stock funds was 22,219 billion yuan, a decrease of 7.20% week-on-week [22]. 3. Multi-Financial - Nanhua Futures has set the final price for its H-share issuance at 12 HKD per share, with plans to list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [30].

Core Viewpoint - On December 22, a total of 18 listed companies will have their restricted shares unlocked, with a total market value of approximately 102.97 billion yuan [1] Group 1: Unlocking Details - Walton Technology (Stock Code: 000920) will unlock 50.62 million shares from a private placement of A-shares [1] - China Hengtian Group (Stock Code: 600252) will unlock 2.36 million shares from equity incentive restrictions [1] - Huadian Energy (Stock Code: 600726) will unlock 4.73 billion shares from a private placement of A-shares [1] - AVIC Heavy Machinery (Stock Code: 600765) will unlock 2.68 million shares from equity incentive restrictions [1] - Nanjing Port (Stock Code: 002040) will unlock 151,800 shares from equity incentive restrictions [1] - Weichai Power (Stock Code: 000338) will unlock 23.48 million shares from equity incentive restrictions [1] - First Capital Securities (Stock Code: 601136) will unlock 2.25 billion shares from pre-issue share restrictions [1] - Anke Technology (Stock Code: 300370) will unlock 237 million shares from other restrictions [1] - Xinya Process (Stock Code: 002388) will unlock 346,550 shares from equity incentive restrictions [1] - Zhaoyi Innovation (Stock Code: 603986) will unlock 64,600 shares from equity incentive restrictions [1] - Ganli Pharmaceutical (Stock Code: 603087) will unlock 164,530 shares from equity incentive restrictions [1] - Yaxiang Co., Ltd. (Stock Code: 301220) will unlock 33.39 million shares with an extended lock-up period [1] - Mousse Co., Ltd. (Stock Code: 001323) will unlock 300 million shares with an extended lock-up period [1] - Sany Heavy Energy (Stock Code: 688349) will unlock 942 million shares [1] - Southern Power Technology (Stock Code: 688248) will unlock 336 million shares [1] - Jingwei Hengrun (Stock Code: 688326) will unlock 118,400 shares [1] - Kangwei Century (Stock Code: 688426) will unlock 434,200 shares [1] - Yuanjie Technology (Stock Code: 688498) will unlock 23.85 million shares [1]

Group 1 - Ukraine's President Zelensky announced constructive progress in negotiations with the U.S. regarding the end of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, security guarantees for Ukraine, and post-war reconstruction [2] - Israel's Foreign Minister stated that Gaza can only be rebuilt if Hamas disarms, emphasizing that Hamas is currently trying to consolidate its power in Gaza [3] - The U.S. Starlink satellite experienced an anomaly, losing contact and producing debris, with monitoring efforts underway to assess potential threats to other satellites [4] Group 2 - China's Ministry of Commerce held a meeting to summarize and plan for business work, focusing on the implementation of the 14th Five-Year Plan and preparing for the 15th Five-Year Plan [5] - New regulations were issued for internet platform pricing, prohibiting platform operators from selling below cost to eliminate competition, with exceptions for certain types of goods [6] - China successfully launched the Communication Technology Test Satellite No. 23, which will be used for multi-band, high-speed satellite communication technology verification [7] Group 3 - China's animated film box office exceeded 25 billion yuan in 2025, marking the highest year in the history of Chinese animated films [8] - Chinese robots won a championship at the second Future Sports Games held in Abu Dhabi, showcasing advancements in robotics [9] Group 4 - The Russian Foreign Ministry denied any secret discussions with South Korea regarding North Korea's nuclear issues, asserting that the meeting was misrepresented by the media [10] - The Russian Defense Ministry reported advances in Ukraine, with Russian forces occupying more advantageous positions and targeting Ukrainian military infrastructure [11] - Thailand's Prime Minister announced that the military has controlled nearly all target areas, emphasizing adherence to international law and the aim to prevent further conflict escalation [12] Group 5 - Venezuelan President Maduro stated that the country has faced 25 weeks of aggression but remains committed to defending national peace and stability [13] - A shooting incident in South Africa resulted in 10 deaths and 10 injuries, highlighting ongoing security challenges in the region [14][15] Group 6 - Moore Threads announced a new GPU architecture that supports large-scale intelligent computing clusters, improving computing density by 50% and energy efficiency by 10 times [16] - Changan Automobile received the first official license plate for L3-level autonomous driving, marking a significant milestone in the autonomous vehicle industry [17] Group 7 - Nearly 190 billion yuan worth of restricted stocks will be unlocked this week, with several companies having significant unlock values, including Shouchuang Securities and Sany Heavy Energy [18][19][20] - Three new stocks are set to be issued this week, with specific details on issuance prices and subscription limits provided [22][23]

Wind数据显示，周一（12月22日），共有19家公司限售股解禁，合计解禁量为75.4亿股，按最新收盘价 计算，合计解禁市值为785.43亿元。 从解禁市值来看，8家公司解禁市值超亿元。首创证券、源杰科技、华电能源解禁市值居前，解禁市值 分别为423.12亿元、147.17亿元、115.84亿元。 从解禁股数占总股本比例来看，7家公司解禁比例超10%。首创证券、华电能源、拉普拉斯解禁比例居 前，解禁比例分别为82.38%、59.79%、42.69%。 从解禁量来看，8家公司解禁股数超千万股。华电能源、首创证券、安控科技解禁量居前，解禁股数分 别为47.28亿股、22.52亿股、2.37亿股。 ...

Market News - The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council issued the "Implementation Measures for Accountability for Violations in Investment Operations of Central Enterprises," specifying 98 accountability scenarios across 13 areas, effective from January 1, 2026 [2] - The People's Bank of China will issue 40 billion yuan of central bank bills in Hong Kong on December 22, with a maturity of 6 months [3] - The National Development and Reform Commission and other agencies introduced new pricing rules for internet platforms, effective April 10, 2026, prohibiting unreasonable restrictions on pricing behavior by platform operators [4] Sector Matters - The 27th Harbin Ice and Snow World opened on December 17, featuring an area of 1.2 million square meters and using 400,000 cubic meters of ice and snow, the largest scale in history [6] - China is actively promoting 6G innovation, with commercial applications expected to start around 2030 and large-scale deployment by 2035, potentially creating a trillion-yuan market [7] Company News - Sunac China announced that its debt restructuring is expected to take effect around December 23, resulting in the full release and exemption of approximately 9.6 billion USD in existing debt [8] - Xpeng Motors plans to launch mass-produced vehicles with L4-level autonomous driving capabilities in 2026 [9] - Moer Technology unveiled its new GPU architecture "Huagang" and two chips at the MUSA Developer Conference, with significant improvements in computing power and energy efficiency [9] - Huawei will hold a product launch event for the nova 15 series on December 22, featuring models equipped with Kirin 8 and Kirin 9 series chips [9] Lock-up Shares - A total of 48 companies will have lock-up shares released from December 22 to December 26, amounting to 20.985 billion shares, with a total market value of 188.011 billion yuan based on the closing price on December 19 [12] - December 22 is a peak day for lock-up releases, with 21 companies releasing shares worth a total of 87.69 billion yuan, accounting for 46.64% of the week's total [12][15] New Stock Calendar - Two new stocks will be issued this week (December 22-26), with a total of approximately 5.60493 million shares expected to raise 2.295 billion yuan [17] Institutional Outlook - Debon Securities forecasts a potential spring market rally in 2026, driven by multiple narratives including strong national narratives and the "deposit migration" theme, with a focus on hard technology sectors like AI and computing power [20] - Shenwan Hongyuan notes that while the spring market may face upward resistance, non-main battlefield sectors could see significant activity [21] - Everbright Securities anticipates continued policy support and capital inflows, leading to a potential upward trend in the market, with a focus on growth and consumer sectors [22]

Group 1: Regulatory Changes - The State Council of China held a meeting to implement decisions from the Central Economic Work Conference, emphasizing the need for departments to detail and accelerate the implementation of economic policies for the upcoming year [3] - The National People's Congress is set to review drafts related to state-owned asset management, which includes regulations on the management, reporting, and supervision of state-owned assets [4][5] Group 2: Market Regulation - The National Internet Information Office and the China Securities Regulatory Commission have cracked down on accounts spreading rumors and illegal stock recommendations, highlighting the impact of misinformation on investor decisions [6] - The Financial Regulatory Bureau is seeking public opinion on the draft of the Asset-Liability Management Measures for insurance companies, which aims to enhance asset-liability management frameworks [7] Group 3: Industry Developments - The "Internet Platform Pricing Behavior Rules" have been released to regulate pricing practices on online platforms, ensuring fair competition and protecting consumer rights [9] - The first L3-level autonomous driving license was issued to Changan Automobile, marking a significant milestone in the domestic autonomous driving sector [10] - Moore Threads unveiled a new GPU architecture, "Huagang," which boasts a 50% increase in computing density and a tenfold improvement in energy efficiency [11] Group 4: Index Adjustments - The FTSE China A50 Index has added companies such as China Molybdenum and Sungrow Power, while removing others like Jiangsu Bank and SF Holding [12] - The FTSE China A150 and A200 indices have also undergone adjustments, reflecting changes in the composition of included stocks [12] Group 5: Major Corporate Transactions - China Shenhua announced a significant acquisition involving the purchase of 100% stakes in multiple energy and coal companies, with a total transaction value of 133.598 billion yuan, making it the largest acquisition in A-share market history [13] Group 6: Upcoming Market Events - Three new stocks are set for subscription this week, with specific details on their issuance prices and codes provided [15] - A total of 53 companies will have their restricted shares released this week, amounting to 210.32 billion shares with a total market value of approximately 1,879.88 billion yuan [16][17] Group 7: Investment Strategies - Various securities firms are signaling a potential "cross-year-spring" market rally, with expectations for increased investment activity and a focus on blue-chip indices [19] - The ongoing demand for AI computing power is highlighted, with recommendations to focus on domestic AI infrastructure as it develops [19] - The appreciation of the RMB is noted as a factor for investment strategies, with certain industries expected to benefit from this trend [20]

Macro and Financial - Hainan Free Trade Port officially launched on December 18, with "zero tariff" items expanded to over 6,600 (accounting for 74% of all product categories), and processing value-added domestic sales exempt from tariffs [2] - Central Economic Work Conference emphasized stabilizing the real estate market from both supply and demand sides, encouraging the acquisition of existing housing for reasonable uses and promoting the transformation of real estate companies [3] - Private equity fund size reached a historical high of 22.09 trillion yuan by the end of November, growing from 19.91 trillion yuan at the beginning of the year, with an increase of over 2 trillion yuan [4] - Significant fluctuations in commodities: gold surpassed $4,310 per ounce, WTI crude oil fell to a low of $56.82 per barrel, and Bitcoin fluctuated between $86,000 and $88,000 [4] Capital Market - A-share listed companies' cash dividends reached 2.61 trillion yuan this year, surpassing the total for 2024 and setting a historical record [8] - Institutional research on North Exchange listed companies has significantly increased, with over 272 companies receiving various institutional surveys, covering more than 95% [8] - A-share market experienced a volume decline with all three major indices falling, while sectors like commercial aerospace and food and beverage saw gains [8] - Hong Kong stock market keywords for the year were "repair" and "differentiation," with liquidity recovery lifting market valuations and structural differentiation creating investment opportunities [9] Business Industry - The MUSA Developer Conference revealed key technological advancements in the domestic computing industry, including a new GPU architecture that enhances performance by 10 times [13] - The Ministry of Commerce announced anti-dumping duties on EU pork products starting December 17, 2025, for five years, prompting mixed reactions within the EU [13] - The first batch of L3-level conditional autonomous driving vehicles received approval for road testing in designated areas, indicating progress in the autonomous driving industry [13] - The retirement of 2G networks is causing functionality issues for early smart electric vehicles, affecting approximately 380 million electric bicycles in China [14]

Group 1: Government Initiatives - The State Council, led by Premier Li Qiang, emphasized the need for all departments to align their actions with the central government's economic strategies for the upcoming year, enhancing responsibility and urgency in task execution [2] - Departments are encouraged to collaborate closely and develop specific implementation plans to ensure effective execution of economic policies [2] Group 2: Market Regulation - The National Internet Information Office and the China Securities Regulatory Commission have cracked down on accounts spreading rumors and illegal stock recommendations, highlighting the importance of maintaining market stability [3] - The authorities have urged the public to adopt correct investment philosophies and enhance their ability to discern financial information [3] Group 3: Major Corporate Transactions - China Shenhua announced a significant acquisition involving the purchase of 100% equity in multiple companies, with a total transaction value of 133.598 billion yuan, marking it as the largest acquisition in A-share market history [4][5] - The acquisition will enhance China Shenhua's coal reserves and production capacity significantly, with coal reserves increasing by 64.72% to 6.849 billion tons and production capacity rising by 56.57% to 512 million tons [5] Group 4: Technological Advancements - Researchers at Shanghai Jiao Tong University have achieved a breakthrough in optical computing, developing a chip that supports large-scale semantic media generation, which is crucial for AI and data processing [6] - Moore Threads unveiled a new GPU architecture that improves computing density by 50% and energy efficiency by ten times, indicating advancements in AI computing capabilities [7] Group 5: Regulatory Developments - The National Development and Reform Commission has released the "Internet Platform Pricing Behavior Rules" to regulate pricing practices on online platforms, ensuring fair competition and consumer protection [9] - The rules prohibit platforms from imposing unreasonable restrictions on sellers' pricing autonomy, promoting a healthier e-commerce environment [9] Group 6: Market Movements - Major U.S. stock indices saw gains, with significant increases in tech stocks, indicating a positive market sentiment [11] - The Chinese stock market is set to experience a substantial unlock of restricted shares, with a total of 210.32 billion shares worth approximately 1879.88 billion yuan becoming tradable [14][15]

- The report discusses multiple quantitative timing models for A-shares, including short-term, medium-term, and long-term models. The short-term models include the Volume Model (neutral for all broad-based indices), Feature Institutional Model (bullish), Feature Volume Model (bearish), and Smart Algorithm Models (bullish for CSI 300, bearish for CSI 500)[1][12][77]. Medium-term models include the Limit-Up-Limit-Down Model (neutral) and the Up-Down Return Difference Model (bullish for all broad-based indices)[13][78]. The long-term model, the Long-Term Momentum Model, is bullish[14][79]. Comprehensive models like the A-Share Comprehensive Weapon V3 Model and the A-Share Comprehensive CSI 2000 Model are bearish[15][80] - For Hong Kong stocks, the medium-term models include the Turnover-to-Volatility Model (bullish) and the Hang Seng Index Up-Down Return Difference Model (neutral)[16][81] - The report emphasizes that timing strategies are not achieved through a single model but require a multi-cycle, multi-strategy system. It highlights the use of price-volume, acceleration, trend, momentum, and limit-up-limit-down perspectives to construct eight major models for market timing[9] - Backtesting results for the Double-Bottom Pattern show a weekly return of 0.29%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.27% during the same period. Since December 31, 2020, the cumulative return of the Double-Bottom Pattern portfolio is 11.79%, slightly underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index's cumulative return of 12.02%[44] - Backtesting results for the Cup-and-Handle Pattern show a weekly return of 0.3%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.27% during the same period. Since December 31, 2020, the cumulative return of the Cup-and-Handle Pattern portfolio is 9.27%, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index's cumulative return of 12.02%[44]

Group 1 - Nanjing Tourism has terminated the acquisition of 100% equity in Nanjing Huangpu Hotel Co., Ltd., citing current market conditions and friendly negotiations with the counterparty as reasons for the decision [2][3] - The company had previously planned to acquire the hotel for 199 million yuan and raise up to 39.83 million yuan in supporting funds [2] - Nanjing Tourism is the only listed platform under Nanjing Cultural Tourism and owns the Hongshan Zoo IP [2] Group 2 - Next week, nearly 1.9 trillion yuan worth of restricted shares will be unlocked, with around 50 stocks having their limited shares released [5][6] - Among these, 17 stocks will have a market value of over 1 billion yuan released, with seven stocks exceeding 10 billion yuan, including Shouchuang Securities, Sany Heavy Energy, and Weidao Nano [5][6] - Shouchuang Securities has the highest unlock value at 42.31 billion yuan, with 2.25 billion shares released, accounting for 82.38% of the company's total share capital [6][7]