Core Insights - The event held by New城控股 focused on collaboration and resource integration within the commercial real estate sector, emphasizing the theme "Two-way Journey, Co-creating Happiness" [1] - The company introduced the "Five Steps of Wuyue Management," which aims to enhance operational efficiency and competitive advantage in the face of market challenges [2][3] - The launch of the "Yuelian Plan" signifies a shift towards creating a collaborative ecosystem among high-quality brands and agents, moving from "space operation" to "ecological collaboration" [1][4] Group 1: Wuyue Management Five Steps - The "Five Steps of Wuyue Management" includes: "Build Good Space," "Group Content," "Find Brands," "Achieve High Sales," and "Share Profits," focusing on refined and professional operations [2][3] - "Build Good Space" emphasizes creating quality experiences for consumers, supported by a comprehensive inspection system and a significant investment of 400 million yuan in 88 projects for space upgrades this year [2] - "Group Content" utilizes internal tools and scientific analysis to ensure effective project planning and brand placement, aiming to eliminate mismatched content [2] Group 2: Sales and Profit Sharing - The "Achieve High Sales" step introduces the "V8 Model," which provides brands with a sales performance evaluation tool, with a commitment to maintain marketing expenses annually [3] - The "Share Profits" step promotes a joint profit-sharing model, reinforcing the focus on sales performance and creating a positive feedback loop for marketing investments and brand incentives [3] - The company aims to align the operational goals of partner brands and investment capabilities, enhancing the overall vitality of the Wuyue commercial content [5] Group 3: Yuelian Plan and Ecosystem - The "Yuelian Plan" aims to create a sustainable resource connection platform by selecting ten compatible brands and eighty strong agents, focusing on mutual trust and efficiency [5][4] - The plan transforms traditional "one-way leasing" into a "three-way win" model, linking high-potential brands with capable agents to facilitate resource matching [4] - The vision of the Yuelian Plan is to establish a collaborative ecosystem among agents, Wuyue, and brands, fostering a sustainable strategic partnership [4] Group 4: Business Performance and Growth - New城控股 reported a total commercial operating revenue of 6.944 billion yuan in the first half of the year, reflecting an 11.8% year-on-year growth [6] - The gross profit from property leasing and management reached 4.573 billion yuan, increasing its contribution to total gross profit from 57.21% to 77.06% [6] - The company has established a presence in 141 cities with 205 integrated projects, maintaining a high occupancy rate of 97.81% for Wuyue Plaza, showcasing its operational efficiency [6][7]

Core Insights - The event held by New城控股 focused on collaboration and resource integration within the commercial real estate sector, emphasizing the theme "Two-way Journey, Co-drawing Happiness" [1][8] - The company introduced the "Five-Step Management Method" for its commercial operations, highlighting its commitment to refined and professional management practices [2][4] - The launch of the "Yue Chain Plan" aims to create a sustainable ecosystem by partnering with high-quality brands and agents across the country, transitioning from "space operation" to "ecological collaboration" [1][5][6] Group 1: Five-Step Management Method - The "Five-Step Management Method" includes building quality spaces, organizing content, identifying brands, enhancing sales, and sharing profits, focusing on refined and professional operations [2][3] - The first step, "Building Quality Spaces," emphasizes the importance of creating appealing environments for consumers, supported by a comprehensive inspection system [2][3] - The second step, "Organizing Content," utilizes scientific analysis to ensure appropriate brand placement and operational efficiency [3] Group 2: Yue Chain Plan - The "Yue Chain Plan" aims to establish a three-way win model between agents, brands, and New城控股, fostering a collaborative commercial real estate environment [5][6] - The plan will initially select 10 compatible brands and 80 capable agents to ensure high-quality partnerships and operational success [6] - The initiative reflects a shift from focusing solely on growth metrics to prioritizing quality and mutual benefits among partners [6][7] Group 3: Business Performance - New城控股's commercial operations generated a total revenue of 6.944 billion yuan in the first half of the year, marking an 11.8% year-on-year increase [7] - The gross profit from property leasing and management reached 4.573 billion yuan, contributing to 77.06% of the company's total gross profit, up from 57.21% in the previous year [7] - The company has established a presence in 141 cities with 205 integrated projects, maintaining a high occupancy rate of 97.81% across its 吾悦广场 locations [7][8]

Group 1 - New City Development Holdings Limited issued $160 million of senior secured notes with a maturity of 2 years and a coupon rate of 11.88% [1] - The proceeds from the bond issuance will be used to repay existing debts and for daily operations [1] - This is the second dollar bond issuance by New City Development this year, following a $300 million senior unsecured bond issued in June with the same coupon rate [1] Group 2 - New City Development's parent company, New City Holdings, is likely issuing high-yield bonds to address upcoming dollar debt maturities [2] - As of the end of June, New City Holdings had non-current liabilities due within one year amounting to 13.788 billion yuan, an increase of 14.15% year-on-year [2] - New City Holdings has a remaining principal of $250 million on a public offshore bond that is due on October 15 [2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the real estate industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The report indicates that new housing transaction areas have shown a month-on-month increase, while real estate development investment has decreased year-on-year from January to August 2025 [3] - The report highlights that the decline in housing prices has been consistent since 2022, with a significant drop in both new and second-hand housing prices across 70 cities, although the rate of decline has started to narrow due to supportive policies [5][16] - It emphasizes that the relationship between population growth and housing prices is not straightforward, as effective housing demand driven by economic development and income growth is crucial for influencing prices [5][25] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The real estate market has entered a downward trend since 2022, with new and second-hand housing prices experiencing a decline for over 40 months [5][16] - As of August 2025, the new housing price index across 70 cities has decreased by 3.0% year-on-year, while the second-hand housing price index has dropped by 5.5% [16][20] Population Impact - The report concludes that population factors are long-term variables with limited mid-term impact on housing prices, as the marginal changes in housing prices are influenced more by monetary policy, supply-demand relationships, and economic expectations [25][39] - A regression analysis across several developed countries shows that housing price indices do not have a significant correlation with population growth rates [40][42] International Experience - The report draws parallels with international experiences, noting that stable fiscal and monetary policies are essential for stabilizing housing prices after declines [6][46] - It cites examples from the U.S., Japan, and South Korea, where coordinated fiscal and monetary policies have successfully supported housing market recovery after significant downturns [46][49] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on real estate companies with strong credit ratings and solid fundamentals in urban areas, such as China Overseas Development and Poly Developments [7] - It also suggests that companies excelling in both residential and commercial real estate, as well as those providing high-quality property management services, are well-positioned for growth [7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the impact of mid-term population changes on housing prices in developed countries/regions is limited, as there is no significant positive correlation between housing price indices and population growth rates or numbers [1] - From 2022, housing prices in 70 cities have entered a downward trend, with a widening decline expected in Q3 2024, although the year-on-year decline has narrowed since Q4 due to supportive policies [1] - The current adjustment cycle in the housing market has seen both new and second-hand housing price indices decline for over 40 months [1] Group 2 - Historical data shows that housing prices in developed countries/regions have experienced fluctuations since the 1980s, with price corrections often exceeding those in China, but eventually stabilizing [2] - Key factors for stabilizing and recovering housing prices include coordinated fiscal and monetary policies, such as large-scale quantitative easing, interest rate cuts, and fiscal subsidies [2] - A stable policy outlook, low interest rate environment, and improved supply-demand structure are crucial for halting the decline and stabilizing the real estate market [2] Group 3 - The stabilization of housing prices is influenced by multiple factors, including monetary policy, supply-demand relationships, and economic expectations, rather than solely by population dynamics [3] - Recommended investment targets include strong credit property companies with good urban fundamentals and leading product capabilities, as well as firms that can drive both residential and commercial real estate [3] - The increasing penetration rate of second-hand housing indicates a promising outlook for the real estate after-service sector [3]

Core Viewpoint - The real estate industry is experiencing a significant decline in both revenue and profitability, with major listed companies reporting substantial losses and a challenging outlook for the near future [1][2][4][7]. Revenue and Profitability - In the first half of 2025, typical listed real estate companies achieved total revenue of 12,868 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 15%, while operating costs were 11,454 billion yuan, down 16% [1]. - The gross profit for these companies was 1,414 billion yuan, reflecting a 9% decline compared to the previous year [1]. - The net profit loss for the industry expanded to 2,762 billion yuan in 2023, further increasing to 3,397 billion yuan in 2024, and reaching 902 billion yuan in the first half of 2025 [2]. Profitability Ratios - The overall gross margin for the industry in the first half of 2025 was 10.87%, an increase of 1.8 percentage points from the entire year of 2024, while the net margin was -7.45% [4]. - Excluding companies that have faced financial distress, the gross margin for 27 stable firms was 15.09%, up 2 percentage points from 2024, with a net margin of 1.71%, indicating a recovery from previous losses [4]. Factors Affecting Profitability - The decline in profitability is attributed to high land acquisition costs, increased sales pressure, and asset impairment provisions, which have negatively impacted current profit performance [4][7]. - Companies are resorting to discount promotions to boost sales, leading to a situation where revenue increases do not translate into profit growth [4]. Industry Outlook - The industry is at a turning point, with a shift in policy focus from deleveraging to risk prevention, and a change in demand dynamics from broad increases to differentiation [7]. - Major companies like Longfor and Vanke express cautious optimism, highlighting the ongoing demand for quality housing in core urban areas despite recent price declines [7][8]. Strategic Planning of Key Companies - China Resources Land plans to maintain an annual opening pace of around six shopping centers, with a focus on public REITs to enhance asset value [9]. - China Merchants Shekou aims to optimize asset structure and enhance operational capabilities through a new asset management model [9]. - Longfor Group anticipates a 10% growth in its commercial sector and plans to open approximately ten new projects annually in the coming years [9]. - New City Holdings is focused on enhancing its commercial operations and leveraging financial policies to improve its capital structure [9].

Investment Rating - The report rates the real estate sector as "Outperform the Market" [5] Core Insights - New home transaction area has turned positive on a month-on-month basis, with a year-on-year increase expanding. The transaction area for new homes reached 1.87 million square meters, up 11.8% month-on-month and 25.8% year-on-year, with a significant increase in year-on-year growth by 20.6 percentage points [5][15][24] - The Shanghai government has optimized the property tax policy for non-resident buyers, allowing for a tax exemption on 60 square meters per person for families purchasing second or more homes, effective from January 1, 2025 [1] Summary by Sections 1. Key City New Home Market, Second-Hand Home Market, and Inventory Tracking - In the week of September 13 to September 19, 2025, the new home transaction area increased month-on-month, while the second-hand home transaction area decreased month-on-month. The inventory area for new homes increased month-on-month, and the de-stocking cycle rose [15] - New home transaction volume in 40 cities was 19,000 units, up 12.8% month-on-month and 37.8% year-on-year. The new home transaction area was 1.87 million square meters, with similar increases [16][24] - The inventory of new homes in 12 cities was 1.404 million units, with a month-on-month increase of 0.5% and a year-on-year decrease of 15.0% [27][39] 2. Land Market Tracking - The total land transaction area across 100 cities was 1.115 million square meters, down 10.9% month-on-month and 39.5% year-on-year. The total land transaction price was 14.33 billion yuan, down 49.1% month-on-month and 73.1% year-on-year [60][64] - The average land price per square meter was 1,289.5 yuan, with a month-on-month decrease of 42.9% and a year-on-year decrease of 55.5% [61][66] 3. Company Announcements and Bond Issuance - The total bond issuance in the real estate sector was 8.71 billion yuan, up 18.9% month-on-month and 2.1% year-on-year. The total repayment amount was 15.8 billion yuan, up 43.5% month-on-month and 102.6% year-on-year [54][56] - The report highlights key companies such as Binjiang Group, China Resources Land, and Yuexiu Property as potential investment opportunities based on their market positioning and performance [5][13]

Core Viewpoint - New City Holdings successfully issued $160 million of senior secured notes, signaling a strong recovery in its financing capabilities and enhancing confidence in private real estate companies [1][2] Group 1: Financing Activities - New City Holdings issued $160 million of senior secured notes with a 2-year term and an interest rate of 11.88% [1] - This is the second dollar bond issuance by New City this year, following a $300 million senior unsecured bond issued in June, marking a significant breakthrough in the offshore capital market for private real estate firms [1] - The proceeds from the recent bond issuance will be used to repay existing debts and for daily operations, indicating a focus on liquidity management [1] Group 2: Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, New City Holdings reported revenue of 22.1 billion yuan and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 895 million yuan, with a gross margin of 26.85%, up 5.25 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The commercial segment generated total revenue of 6.944 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 11.8%, with property leasing and management contributing significantly to overall profitability [2] - The gross margin for the property leasing and management business reached 71.20%, indicating a strong performance in high-margin commercial operations [2] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Analyst Ratings - The successful issuance of dollar bonds is seen as a positive signal for the market, potentially restoring confidence in private real estate companies and alleviating liquidity pressures in the industry [1] - Analysts from Southwest Securities have initiated coverage on New City Holdings, highlighting the resilience and operational efficiency of its commercial segment, and have assigned a "buy" rating based on the company's solid profit and cash flow foundation [2]

Group 1 - The only ETF tracking the CSI 800 Real Estate Index (159707) surged 4% on September 24, reaching a new high for the year, with a trading volume exceeding 54 million CNY [1] - The ETF's price reached 0.705 CNY, reflecting a 3.98% increase, with a trading volume of 1.17 million shares [2] - Key stocks in the ETF, such as Shanghai Lingang and Zhangjiang Hi-Tech, hit the daily limit, while several others, including China Merchants Shekou and Vanke A, rose over 2% [2] Group 2 - From January to August, national real estate development investment decreased by 12.9%, with residential investment down by 11.9%, but new home transactions in 68 cities showed a year-on-year increase [3] - The total transaction area for real estate is stabilizing at 1.5 billion square meters, despite a decline in new home sales, indicating that overall demand has bottomed out [3] - The contribution of the real estate sector to the economy has decreased from 18% in 2012-2020 to an estimated 11% in 2024, reflecting a significant reduction in the industry's weight in the economy [3]

Core Viewpoint - New City Development (01030) announced that its subsidiary, New City Global Limited, plans to issue guaranteed senior notes denominated in US dollars, backed by the company and New City Holdings (601155) [1] Group 1: Issuance Details - The issuer, the company, and New City Holdings have entered into a purchase agreement with several initial buyers for the issuance and sale of senior notes totaling $160 million, with a maturity date in 2027 and an interest rate of 11.88% [1] - The total proceeds from the note issuance are expected to be approximately $157 million [1] Group 2: Use of Proceeds - The net proceeds from the note issuance will be used to repay existing debts and for general corporate purposes [1]