分析师及联系人 丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨行业周报丨房地产 [Table_Title] 定向降低购房负担意味着什么？ ——房地产行业周度观点更新 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 深度降息在宏观和银行层面有较多约束，贴息或者抵税是定向降息的主要手段。怎么贴是关键， 持续性比幅度和范围更重要，如果只是补贴有限年份，本质与一次性优惠没有区别，稳价效果 可能相对有限。如果只补贴新房，初期政策成本较小，但后期将逐步累加，并且加大新房对存 量的替代；如果兼顾存量，政策成本则明显提高。关于房价，收入预期比利率本身更重要，贴 息可逐步解决回报率倒挂问题，但收入预期有赖于总需求扩张或分配改革。综合而言，定向降 低购房负担，对好房子的"小循环"有一定支撑，有助于"增量带动存量"逻辑的进一步演绎。 [Table_Author] 刘义 侯兆熔 SAC：S0490520040001 SAC：S0490525060001 SFC：BUV416 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title 定向降低购房负担意味着什么？ 2] ——房地产行业周度观点更新 ...

11月21日，新城控股（601155.SH）位于河南南阳的高新吾悦广场盛大开业。作为集团在南阳落地的第 二个商业项目，高新吾悦广场深度融合购物、餐饮、娱乐、亲子、文化等多元业态，打造一站式消费体 验新地标。随着该项目正式投入运营，新城控股在南阳成功构建起覆盖核心商圈与新兴板块的"一城双 店"战略布局，不仅进一步激活区域商业活力，更以"五边形经营理念"为核心，持续为南阳城市经济高 质量发展注入强劲动能。 80余家首进品牌 打造差异化竞争优势 据悉，南阳高新吾悦广场地处南阳高新技术产业开发区核心地段，地理位置优越。项目以"秀水南阳"为 主题，深度融入城市人文与历史特色，依托汉城河生态资源打造生态绿廊、立体退台及近万平方米的空 中花园，构建南阳首个亲水商业综合体标杆；同时，通过宛风汉韵市集、卧龙文化街区等十大场景，重 塑城市文化新地标。 在品牌矩阵上，南阳高新吾悦广场汇聚超200个优质品牌，其中80余家为"首进南阳"，涵盖9家河南首店 及70余家南阳首店，包括盒马鲜生、会飞的哈林、滏晓、出出出山、见青山等，不仅进一步丰富城市消 费业态，更有效破解区域商业同质化竞争。以盒马鲜生为例，作为豫南首店，其创新模式将满足周边 ...

Core Viewpoint - The real estate sector in China is experiencing a surge, with multiple stocks hitting the daily limit up, driven by positive market sentiment and expectations of policy support for high-quality housing development [1][2][4]. Market Performance - The real estate sector saw significant gains, with stocks like I Love My Home and Caixin Development hitting the limit up within two minutes, leading to a broad rally in the sector [1][2]. - By midday, the Shenwan Real Estate Index rose by 1.59%, with several stocks, including Fuxing Co. and Shimao Group, also experiencing substantial increases [2][3]. - In the Hong Kong market, major real estate stocks like Sunac China and Country Garden saw gains exceeding 12% and 9%, respectively [2][3]. Policy and Industry Outlook - There is an increasing expectation for policy relaxation, with the Central Committee emphasizing the need for high-quality housing development and improved housing supply systems [4][5]. - The current market dynamics indicate a shift towards second-hand housing, with second-hand transactions accounting for 44.8% of total transactions from January to October [1][5]. - The National Bureau of Statistics reported a reduction in the sales area and sales volume of new residential properties, indicating a transition to a market dominated by second-hand housing [5]. Investment Implications - Analysts suggest that stable housing prices are crucial for facilitating economic circulation, and there is potential for further policy support in the real estate sector [5]. - The focus is shifting towards high-quality residential projects, with expectations of a development wave in this segment due to changing policy directions and market demands [4][5].

Market Overview - On November 20, the real estate development sector rose by 0.28% compared to the previous trading day, with Caixin Development leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3931.05, down 0.4%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12980.82, down 0.76% [1] Top Gainers in Real Estate Sector - Caixin Development (000838) closed at 3.40, up 10.03% with a trading volume of 451,100 shares and a turnover of 144 million yuan [1] - New City Holdings (601155) closed at 15.53, up 7.18% with a trading volume of 398,400 shares and a turnover of 26.67 million yuan [1] - ST Zhongdi (000609) closed at 12.40, up 5.00% with a trading volume of 242,300 shares and a turnover of 300 million yuan [1] Top Losers in Real Estate Sector - Yingxin Development (000620) closed at 3.24, down 10.00% with a trading volume of 5,315,900 shares and a turnover of 1.773 billion yuan [2] - China Wuyi (000797) closed at 3.67, down 9.38% with a trading volume of 2,878,800 shares and a turnover of 1.071 billion yuan [2] - Huaxia Happiness (600340) closed at 3.13, down 9.01% with a trading volume of 8,687,100 shares and a turnover of 2.831 billion yuan [2] Capital Flow Analysis - The real estate development sector experienced a net outflow of 321 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 585 million yuan [2] - Major stocks like Vanke A (000002) had a net inflow of 160 million yuan from institutional investors, while it faced a net outflow of 92 million yuan from retail investors [3] - New City Holdings (601155) had a net inflow of 64 million yuan from institutional investors but a net outflow of 93 million yuan from retail investors [3]

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights the recent performance of New城控股, which saw a 5.11% increase in stock price, reaching 15.23 yuan per share, with a trading volume of 270 million yuan and a turnover rate of 0.81%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 34.353 billion yuan [1] - New城控股, established on June 30, 1996, and listed on December 4, 2015, primarily engages in real estate development and sales, with revenue composition as follows: 68.63% from real estate development and sales, 29.06% from property leasing and management, and 2.31% from other supplementary activities [1] Group 2 - From the perspective of major fund holdings, data indicates that Anxin Fund has one fund heavily invested in New城控股. The Anxin New Value Mixed A Fund (003026) increased its holdings by 221,000 shares in the third quarter, totaling 296,200 shares, which represents 0.87% of the fund's net value, ranking as the sixth-largest holding [2] - The Anxin New Value Mixed A Fund (003026) was established on August 19, 2016, with a current size of 98.43 million yuan. Year-to-date returns stand at 9.53%, ranking 5803 out of 8136 in its category; over the past year, returns are at 12.33%, ranking 5137 out of 8055; and since inception, the fund has achieved a return of 104.2% [2] Group 3 - The fund managers of Anxin New Value Mixed A Fund (003026) are Wang Tao and Liang Bingzhe. As of the report, Wang Tao has a cumulative tenure of 10 years and 322 days, managing a total fund size of 9.625 billion yuan, with the best fund return during his tenure being 31.75% and the worst being -5.99% [3] - Liang Bingzhe has a cumulative tenure of 4 years and 84 days, managing a total fund size of 4.75 billion yuan, with the best fund return during his tenure being 27.73% and the worst being -3.81% [3]

Group 1 - A-share market saw a rise in certain real estate stocks influenced by related rumors, with notable increases in stocks such as China Merchants Shekou, Binjiang Group, and New Town Holdings, which rose over 4% [1] - Other companies like Huayi Family, Shenzhen Housing A, Jindi Group, Tibet City Investment, China Enterprises, Xinda Real Estate, and Vanke A experienced increases of over 3% [1] Group 2 - The real estate development sector showed significant stock performance, with 福星股份 (Fuxing Co.) leading with a rise of 5.86% and a total market value of 4.317 billion [2] - ST中油 (ST Zhongyou) followed with a 5.00% increase and a market value of 3.711 billion, while 招商蛇口 (China Merchants Shekou) rose by 4.79% with a market cap of 88.7 billion [2] - Other notable performers included 滨江集团 (Binjiang Group) with a 4.30% increase and a market value of 3.32 billion, and 新城控股 (New Town Holdings) with a 4.14% rise and a market cap of 3.4 billion [2]

Core Insights - The Chinese real estate industry is transitioning from new residential construction to rental asset operations, alongside the development of the REIT market, which may reshape the competitive landscape for developers and redefine long-term investment logic [1][3]. Group 1: C-REIT Expansion - Policy incentives are accelerating the expansion of C-REITs (China Real Estate Investment Trusts), with the market size expected to reach approximately $1 trillion in the long term [2][4]. - Developers are likely to benefit from this emerging long-term theme due to their large rental asset portfolios, although their participation in REIT issuance remains low [2][4]. - The analysis of developers' rental assets indicates that China Resources Land has the strongest potential for benefit from REIT spin-offs [2][4]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - Since Q3 2025, favorable policies have accelerated the issuance of domestic REITs, expanding the asset range and issuer backgrounds [6]. - C-REITs are expected to become an important asset class over the next 10 to 20 years due to their stable returns and low correlation with the stock market [6]. - The limited trading volume of C-REITs suggests that listed developers are a good entry point into this rapidly expanding theme [6]. Group 3: Key Beneficiaries - In-depth analysis shows that China Resources Land (1109.HK) has the highest short-term benefit potential, followed by New World Development (601155.SS) and Longfor Group (0960.HK) due to their large shopping center portfolios [7]. - Other companies with rich non-retail rental assets, such as China Overseas Land (0688.HK), China Merchants Shekou (001979.SZ), Vanke (2202.HK), and Poly Developments (600048.SS), may also benefit in the medium term as the REIT coverage expands [7]. Group 4: C-REIT Development History - The development of C-REITs over the past 25 years can be divided into four phases: initial preparation, gradual development, accelerated promotion, and full-speed phase [9]. - The regulatory framework for C-REITs was first proposed in the early 2000s, with significant progress made since the first public REIT was listed in mid-2021 [8][9]. Group 5: Current Market Status - As of September 2025, there are 75 publicly listed C-REITs with a cumulative issuance scale of approximately RMB 200 billion and a market value of about RMB 220 billion [10]. - Despite significant growth since the first public REITs were listed, C-REITs currently account for only 0.15% of the total market value of China's stock market [10]. Group 6: Future Potential - The potential market size for C-REITs is estimated to reach $1 trillion, which is 32 times the current market value of approximately $31 billion [15][16]. - The estimated value of commercial properties completed since 2000 is around $4.9 trillion, indicating a significant opportunity for C-REITs to capture a larger market share [14][15].

Core Insights - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes expanding domestic demand as a strategic foundation, focusing on improving people's livelihoods and promoting consumption, which presents new opportunities for retail real estate [2][3] - The commercial real estate sector is entering a phase of differentiation and revitalization, with some companies recovering investment activities despite facing revenue challenges [2][3] - The demand for experiential consumption is increasing, indicating a shift in consumer preferences that retail commercial real estate must adapt to [3][4] Group 1: Market Trends - The total retail sales of consumer goods reached 36.5877 trillion yuan from January to September 2025, with a growth rate of 4.46% [3] - During the recent 8-day National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holiday, domestic travel reached 888 million people, an increase of 123 million compared to the previous year, with total spending of 809 billion yuan, up 108.2 billion yuan [3] - The commercial real estate development investment is still facing growth challenges, with large enterprises capturing market share but struggling for continuous revenue growth, while small and medium-sized enterprises face operational difficulties [3][5] Group 2: Consumer Behavior - The middle-aged and elderly population, along with young consumers, are identified as key demographics with significant spending potential [4] - The middle-class consumer group is experiencing structural shifts, leading to a complex consumption mindset characterized by a desire for diverse products and services [4] - Companies are adopting strategies that integrate social media and personalized services to enhance customer engagement and attract consumers [4][5] Group 3: Business Strategies - Companies are focusing on optimizing existing assets and exploring new business models, such as the "light asset" approach to expand their market presence [5] - The competition in the commercial sector is intensifying, requiring businesses to innovate in content creation, unique experiences, and refined operations [5][6] - The overall short-term policy effects on consumption are becoming evident, although the recovery of investment remains slow, indicating a gradual restoration of market confidence [6]

Core Viewpoint - New City Holdings has experienced a decline in stock price and revenue, indicating potential challenges in the real estate market [1][2]. Group 1: Stock Performance - On November 18, New City Holdings' stock price fell by 2.02%, reaching 14.58 CNY per share, with a total market capitalization of 32.887 billion CNY [1]. - The stock has increased by 21.91% year-to-date but has seen a decline of 2.61% over the last five trading days, 3.06% over the last twenty days, and 10.61% over the last sixty days [1]. Group 2: Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, New City Holdings reported a revenue of 34.371 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 33.34%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 0.974 billion CNY, also down by 33.05% [2]. - Cumulatively, the company has distributed 14.595 billion CNY in dividends since its A-share listing, with no dividends paid in the last three years [3]. Group 3: Shareholder Structure - As of September 30, 2025, the number of shareholders decreased by 12.34% to 43,200, while the average number of tradable shares per person increased by 14.07% to 52,155 shares [2]. - The top ten circulating shareholders include Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited, which reduced its holdings by 701,400 shares, and ICBC Value Selection Mixed A, which is a new shareholder with 15.7412 million shares [3].

Company Overview - The company, New Town Holdings, has been established for 20 years and operates with a dual business model of residential development and commercial operations, which enhances its stability [1] - As of Q3 2025, the company has total assets of 280.67 billion yuan and equity attributable to shareholders of 61.87 billion yuan, with a high shareholding concentration of 67.20% [1] - The major shareholders have pledged shares, but the pledge ratios are within safe limits, ensuring stable control [1] Core Competitiveness - The commercial real estate segment, centered around "Wuyue Plaza," has opened over 150 locations with a stable occupancy rate of 97.81% [2] - The total revenue from commercial operations reached 6.944 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 11.8%, with a gross profit margin of 71.20% [2] - The stable cash flow from commercial real estate mitigates the cyclical fluctuations of residential development, providing solid support for debt repayment [2] Industry Environment - Since 2025, the real estate industry has seen continuous policy easing, with central and local governments implementing measures to stabilize the market and improve financing conditions for private enterprises [4] - The market is experiencing a bifurcation, with core cities showing resilience while third and fourth-tier cities face pressure; sales in core cities saw a year-on-year decline of only 5.2% [5] - New Town Holdings has strategically acquired over 60% of its land reserves in core cities, positioning itself to capitalize on the industry's recovery [5] Financial Analysis - In Q3 2025, the company reported revenue of 12.271 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 30.51%, primarily due to reduced project deliveries [3] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 79 million yuan, down 42.09% year-on-year, but the commercial operations continue to grow, contributing over 70% of gross profit [3] - The debt structure has improved, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 72.00% and a net debt ratio of 52.44%, indicating a strong liquidity position [3] Valuation and Stock Price Analysis - As of November 3, 2025, the company's stock price is 13.99 yuan, corresponding to a dynamic PE of 24.30 times and a PB of 0.40 times, significantly lower than the industry median [7] - The target price is set at 18.50 yuan, indicating a potential upside of 32.2% based on a 2026 PB of 0.68 times [7] - Analysts are optimistic about the stock's future performance, with 73.91% recommending a "strong buy" and a target price average of 18.49 yuan, suggesting a potential increase of 32.2% [8]