Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [4] Core Viewpoints - In May, the price decline of second-hand houses in various cities expanded on a month-on-month basis, while the year-on-year decline narrowed [1][2] - The new residential sales price index for 70 major cities showed a month-on-month decrease of 0.2% in May, compared to a previous value of -0.1% [1] - The investment suggestion indicates that short-term policy support is expected to stabilize prices and improve valuations, while long-term focus should be on leading companies with quality product resources and real estate operation capabilities [3] Summary by Sections Month-on-Month Data - In May, the month-on-month price index for new residential properties in first-tier cities decreased by 0.2%, with specific cities like Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Guangzhou showing declines of -0.4%, 0.7%, -0.4%, and -0.8% respectively [1] - The month-on-month price index for second-hand residential properties in first-tier cities decreased by 0.7%, with Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Guangzhou showing declines of -0.8%, -0.7%, -0.5%, and -0.8% respectively [1] Year-on-Year Data - The year-on-year price index for new residential properties in 70 major cities decreased by 4.1% in May, an improvement from the previous decline of 4.5% [2] - The year-on-year price index for second-hand residential properties in 70 major cities decreased by 6.3%, also an improvement from the previous decline of 6.8% [2] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading companies such as Poly Developments and New Town Holdings in the short term, while also considering China Resources Land and Longfor Group as potential beneficiaries [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has experienced a decline in sales scale and ranking, but its commercial management operations remain strong with double-digit growth in rental income. The overall business performance is stable, and the commercial occupancy rate remains high. The parent company has restarted USD bond financing, which is the first case of a private real estate company issuing overseas bonds in the past two years. The profit forecast for 2025-2027 is maintained, with expected net profits of 1.05 billion, 1.50 billion, and 1.75 billion yuan respectively, and corresponding EPS of 0.46, 0.67, and 0.78 yuan [5][8]. Sales Performance - In May 2025, the company achieved a contract sales amount of 1.973 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 51.90%, and a sales area of 252,600 square meters, down 56.12% year-on-year. The cumulative contract sales amount from January to May 2025 was 8.836 billion yuan, a decline of 55.27%, with a cumulative sales area of 1.1386 million square meters, down 58.40% year-on-year [6]. Commercial Management - As of the end of May 2025, the company operated and managed a total of 174 Wuyue Plazas, an increase of 13 from the same period in 2024. The total leased property area reached 16.04 million square meters. The cumulative commercial operating revenue from January to May 2025 was 5.374 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.0%, with May's single-month rental income at 1.1 billion yuan, up 9.6% year-on-year [7]. Financing Activities - On June 12, 2025, the parent company announced the successful issuance of 300 million USD in senior notes with a coupon rate of 11.88% and a maturity of three years. The funds will be used to repurchase two upcoming maturing USD bonds. This issuance marks the first case of a private real estate company restarting overseas USD bond financing in two years, with subscriptions exceeding 880 million USD [8]. Financial Summary and Valuation Indicators - The company's projected financial performance includes: - Revenue for 2025 estimated at 74.206 billion yuan, down 16.6% year-on-year - Net profit for 2025 estimated at 1.045 billion yuan, up 38.9% year-on-year - EPS for 2025 estimated at 0.46 yuan, with a P/E ratio of 29.1 times [9][20].

多重利好叠加，今日港A地产股集体大涨。 港股中，金辉控股一度飙涨超80%%，截止发稿涨36.18%，融创中国、世茂集团涨超5%，雅居乐集 团、远洋集团等跟涨。 | 代码 | 名称 | | 最新价 | 流跌额 | > 联想法 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 09993 | 金辉控股 | (0) | 3.350 | +0.890 | 36.18% | | 01918 | 融创中国 | | 1.490 | +0.080 | 5.67% | | 00813 | 世茂集团 | | 0.770 | +0.040 | 5.48% | | 03383 | 雅居乐集团 | | 0.430 | +0.020 | 4.88% | | 03377 | 元洋集团 | | 0.109 | +0.005 | 4.81% | | 00817 | 中国金茂 | | 1.170 | +0.050 | 4 46% | | 02777 | 富力地产 | | 1.020 | +0.040 | 4.08% | | 01109 | 华润置地 | | 28.050 | +1.000 | 3.70% | | ...

房地产板块突然爆发。 从市场交易看，在各项稳楼市政策作用下，房地产销售基本平稳。1—5月份，新建商品房销售面积和销售额同 比分别下降2.9%和3.8%，与1—4月份基本持平。部分一线、二线城市市场交易较为活跃，商品房销售面积和 销售额保持增长。 从市场价格看，新建商品住宅价格同比降幅继续收窄。5月份70个大中城市中，多数城市商品住宅销售价格同 比降幅收窄。其中，一、二、三线城市新建商品住宅销售价格同比降幅比上月收窄0.4、0.4和0.5个百分点；二 手住宅销售价格同比降幅分别收窄0.5、0.4和0.5个百分点。从商品房库存看，5月末商品房待售面积比4月末减 少715万平方米，连续三个月减少。 付凌晖强调，总的看，促进房地产市场止跌回稳政策持续显效，5月份房地产市场运行总体平稳。但也要看 到，房地产市场仍在调整过程中，市场信心还在修复，市场供求关系仍待改善，促进房地产止跌回稳还需要继 续努力。 付凌晖还表示，下阶段，要认真贯彻落实党中央、国务院决策部署，积极主动适应房地产市场供求关系发生重 大变化的现实，持续推动城市更新和危旧房改造，加大"好房子"建设供应力度，促进刚性和改善性住房需求释 放，积极构建房地产发展 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The real estate market continues to show signs of weak recovery, with sales data in May indicating a slight improvement compared to April [8] - The overall sales area of commercial housing in the first five months of 2025 decreased by 2.9% year-on-year, with sales amounting to 3.41 trillion yuan, down 3.8% year-on-year [5][14] - The new housing market is expected to maintain a weak recovery trend in June, driven by increased marketing efforts from real estate companies and a rise in supply [32] Summary by Sections Sales Data - In the first five months of 2025, the national commercial housing sales area was 353 million square meters, with a year-on-year decrease of 2.9% [5][14] - The sales area in May alone saw a year-on-year decline of 3.3%, while the sales amount dropped by 6.0% [5][14] - The average sales price in May decreased by 2.8% year-on-year but increased by 2.5% month-on-month, indicating a trend of price adjustments [5][14] Construction Data - The new housing starts in the first five months of 2025 totaled 232 million square meters, down 22.8% year-on-year [6][21] - The completion area for housing was 184 million square meters, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 17.3% [6][21] Investment Trends - Real estate development investment in the first five months of 2025 reached 3.62 trillion yuan, down 10.7% year-on-year [7][24] - The funding available to real estate developers decreased by 5.3% year-on-year, with various funding sources showing significant declines [28][29] Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks include strong credit real estate companies that understand customer demand, such as Greentown China, China Overseas Development, and China Merchants Shekou [32] - Companies benefiting from both real estate recovery and consumption promotion policies include China Resources Land and Longfor Group [32]

Group 1: Real Estate Sector Performance - The real estate sector showed strong performance on June 16, with significant upward movement noted in both A-share and Hong Kong markets, particularly as the market approached midday [2][12] - Notable stocks included Kinhui Holdings, which saw a peak increase of over 80%, and several other companies like Wantong Development and TeFa Service, which rose by more than 9% and 8% respectively [4][6][12] - In the A-share market, Hefei Urban Construction hit the daily limit up, indicating strong investor interest [7] Group 2: Market Statistics and Trends - As of May, the real estate market showed signs of stabilization, with a continued narrowing of year-on-year price declines in major cities, and a decrease in unsold housing inventory by 7.15 million square meters [13][14] - The National Bureau of Statistics reported that new residential property prices in first, second, and third-tier cities saw a reduction in year-on-year decline rates, indicating a potential recovery in market confidence [13][14] - The sales area and sales volume of new residential properties from January to May decreased by 2.9% and 3.8% year-on-year, respectively, but remained stable compared to the previous month [13] Group 3: Government Policies and Support - The State Council meeting on June 13 emphasized the importance of establishing a new model for real estate development to promote stable and healthy market growth, with a focus on long-term strategies and systematic policy support [12][13] - Policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate market are being implemented, with a focus on enhancing the effectiveness of existing measures to boost demand and optimize supply [12][14]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share and Hong Kong stock markets experienced minor fluctuations, with significant movements in the oil and gas sector due to a surge in international oil prices, and a strong performance in the real estate sector [1][20]. Group 1: A-share Market Performance - The A-share market saw a notable increase in the oil and gas sector, with multiple stocks hitting the daily limit [1]. - Real estate stocks also showed strong performance, with several companies experiencing significant price increases, such as Hefei Urban Construction hitting the daily limit and Wan Tong Development rising over 9% [5][7]. - Specific stocks in the A-share market included: - Yuyuan Development: 6.36% increase [10] - Te Fa Service: 5.31% increase [9] - New Huangpu: 4.89% increase [10]. Group 2: Hong Kong Stock Market Performance - The Hong Kong real estate sector exhibited even more pronounced movements, with Kinhui Holdings reaching a peak increase of over 80% [2]. - Other notable performers included: - Likao Group: 15.00% increase [13] - Green Scene China Real Estate: 11.96% increase [13]. Group 3: Real Estate Market Insights - The State Council's meeting on June 13 emphasized the importance of establishing a new model for real estate development to promote a stable and healthy market [14]. - The National Bureau of Statistics reported that the real estate market is gradually stabilizing, with a reduction in the year-on-year decline of housing prices in major cities [15][16]. - In May, the inventory of unsold commercial housing decreased by 7.15 million square meters, marking three consecutive months of decline [16]. Group 4: Economic Indicators - The industrial added value for May showed a year-on-year growth of 5.8%, with a month-on-month increase of 0.61% [19]. - Retail sales for May reached 41,326 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.4% [19].

Group 1 - New City issued a $300 million three-year USD bond with a coupon rate of 11.88%, but the market price fell by 0.5-1pt from the issue price, leading to a final subscription amount of $612 million, down from $880 million [1][2] - This bond issuance is significant as it marks the first USD bond from a private real estate company in three years and is an unsecured credit bond, which helps alleviate cash outflows for the company [2][4] - The issuance timing was strategic, as the company aimed to capitalize on a favorable market window, similar to previous successful issuances by other companies like Greentown [4][10] Group 2 - New City was cautious in its approach, issuing only $300 million out of a $600 million quota, which helps mitigate repayment pressure in the future [6][7] - The company executed a quick transition from bond issuance to repurchasing maturing bonds, demonstrating careful financial planning [9][10] - The investor composition for the bond was notable, with 39% from funds and asset management companies, 55% from high-net-worth clients/private banks, and only 6% from investment banks, indicating a cautious sentiment from larger financial institutions [11]

Group 1: Real Estate Industry - The current housing policy indicates a new model for real estate development, with the implementation of immediate housing sales being orderly and effective. This is part of a long-term mechanism rather than a short-term switch [12][10] - The impact of the immediate housing sales policy includes a significant decline in investment, a reduction in land finance, and a contraction in industry demand. The average pre-sale period in first and second-tier cities has extended from 6 months to 30 months, leading to a drop in investment return rates from 30% to 6% [12][10] - The report maintains a "positive" rating for the real estate sector, emphasizing the need for policy support to stabilize the market and improve the asset-liability situation of residents [12][10] Group 2: Banking Sector - Since the end of 2023, the banking sector has experienced a recovery, with a cumulative increase of 55%, primarily driven by valuation recovery and stable earnings performance [13][11] - The report suggests that the banking sector is significantly undervalued, with an average ROE of about 10% and a PE ratio of approximately 6 times, indicating potential for systematic revaluation [15][11] - The investment strategy focuses on embracing stable, sustainable returns, with recommendations for regional banks and large state-owned banks that are expected to benefit from ongoing reforms and market conditions [15][11] Group 3: Coal Industry - The coal supply is expected to contract due to limited production recovery in Shanxi and declining import volumes, with domestic coal production primarily concentrated in Xinjiang [14][16] - The demand for thermal coal is projected to maintain positive growth in the coming years, supported by stable economic conditions and seasonal demand increases [16][14] - The report highlights that the economic viability of "Xinjiang coal transportation" depends on maintaining high coal prices, with the average price for thermal coal expected to remain between 700-750 RMB/ton [16][14] Group 4: Shipping Industry - The escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East has led to significant increases in oil prices, with Brent crude exceeding 75 USD/barrel, impacting shipping routes and costs [16][3] - The report notes that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz could disrupt approximately 5% of global oil tanker capacity, significantly affecting oil transportation dynamics [16][3] - It is recommended to closely monitor the duration and expansion of the conflict, as well as changes in oil inventory and economic expectations [16][3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the real estate industry is "Positive" and maintained [10] Core Insights - The necessity for marginal easing in the industry is gradually increasing, with the policy goal of stabilizing the market becoming more proactive. However, since April, the marginal downward pressure has intensified [2][4] - The current position of development stocks is not high, indicating that the necessity for policy easing is increasing. Investors are advised to selectively allocate and wait for trading windows, while focusing on leading companies with stable cash flows and potential high dividends in commercial, brokerage, and property management sectors as strategic opportunities [2][4][8] Market Performance - The Yangtze River Real Estate Index decreased by 1.27% this week, with an excess return of -1.02% relative to the CSI 300, ranking 25th out of 32 industries. Year-to-date, the index is down 6.14%, with an excess return of -4.35%, ranking 30th out of 32 [5][14] Policy Developments - The State Council, led by Li Qiang, emphasized the importance of constructing a new model for real estate development to promote stable, healthy, and high-quality market growth. Policies will support the construction of "good houses" and optimize existing policies to stabilize expectations and activate demand [6][16] - Local governments, such as Shenzhen and Guangzhou, are proposing new policies to support housing purchases, including the withdrawal of purchase restrictions and lowering down payment ratios and interest rates [6][16] Sales Data - In sample cities, new home and second-hand home registrations are fluctuating at low levels. The new home transaction area in 37 cities showed a four-week rolling year-on-year decrease of 3.5%, while second-hand homes increased by 7.7% [7][18] - As of June 13, the new home transaction area in 37 cities decreased by 3.3% year-on-year, while second-hand homes increased by 11.6% [7][18] Weekly Highlights - The downward slope of the industry has been expanding since Q2, with the policy goal of stabilizing the market facing pressure. The marginal easing of industrial policies is becoming clearer, although the pace and intensity need further discussion [8][4]