据悉，此次活动上，来自小米集团、柒牌集团、霸王茶姬、达美乐四家吾悦广场合作品牌的爱心代表也 相聚在此，与新城的"公益先锋"们一起，共赴绿色之约。对于新城来说，这是其公益历程中的一次全新 篇章，不仅体现了商业与公益的深度联动，也传递出"责任共生"的理念。 去年10月，吾悦商管发布绿色低碳行动倡议书，希望多方携手让公益的根系扎得更深、枝繁叶茂，此次 集结也是双方在公益领域的一次"双向奔赴"，共同书写公益向善、生态和谐的新叙事，构建公益生态 圈。 四月，春意盎然，在千里之外的腾格里沙漠中也盛放着属于春日的绿色生机。4月19日，新城控股 （601155）(601155.SH)启动2025年春种计划公益活动，来自全国各地的39名志愿者怀揣公益之心跨越 数千公里，齐聚在内蒙古阿拉善盟腾格里沙漠，开启新一年的绿色征途，为新绿行动第二个五年计划持 续接力。 聚势向新构建公益生态圈 2018年，新城控股联合中国绿化基金会"百万森林计划"共同推出"七色光计划.新绿行动"环保项目，号 召"一人捐赠一棵树"，帮助改善气候贫困地区生态环境，遏制全球沙漠化，并于同年开启第一个五年计 划，即"百万绿色'新'愿"，计划在五年内捐赠10万株树 ...

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for potential investors [4]. Core Views - The company is positioned to reverse its current challenges due to its strong commercial operations and manageable debt risks, with a focus on the "Residential + Commercial" real estate model [1][3]. Company Overview - The company operates under a "Residential + Commercial" dual-driven model, with commercial gross profit accounting for nearly 50% of total revenue [15][19]. - As of the end of 2024, the company has developed a significant portfolio of commercial properties, with 200 shopping centers (Wuyue Plaza) across 136 cities, totaling an opening area of 16.01 million square meters [37][41]. Commercial Operations - The company emphasizes "scale leadership and deep operation," achieving a high average occupancy rate of 97.7% for its shopping centers, with total commercial operating revenue reaching 12.808 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 13.10% [1][42]. - The total foot traffic for Wuyue Plaza reached 1.766 billion visits in 2024, reflecting a 19% increase year-on-year [1][42]. Development and Sales - The company's development and sales business is expected to continue contracting, with a projected sales amount of 40.2 billion yuan in 2024, down 47.1% year-on-year [57]. - The company has ceased land acquisitions since 2022, leading to a further reduction in development scale, while the contribution from commercial operations to profits is anticipated to increase [2][69]. Financial Overview - The company has successfully reduced its debt costs, with an average financing cost of 5.92% in 2024, down 28 basis points from 2023 [2][74]. - As of the end of 2024, the company’s total interest-bearing debt was 54.1 billion yuan, a decrease of 4.9% from the previous year, indicating a trend of declining debt levels [74][75]. Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company is expected to see a gradual recovery in profitability, with projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 at 89.9 billion, 124.5 billion, and 141.9 billion yuan respectively [3][83]. - The report suggests that the company's stock price could reasonably range between 14.83 and 17.55 yuan in 2025, based on absolute and relative valuation metrics [3].

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for potential investors [4]. Core Views - The company is positioned to reverse its current challenges due to its strong commercial operations and manageable debt risks, with a focus on the "Residential + Commercial" real estate model [1][3]. - The commercial segment is expected to increasingly contribute to profits as the residential development business continues to decline [2][3]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - The company operates under a "Residential + Commercial" dual-driven model, with commercial gross profit approaching 50% [15]. - It has a significant presence in both residential and commercial real estate, with a focus on cash flow stability [19]. 2. Commercial Operations - The company emphasizes "scale leadership and deep operation," with a leading opening scale in the industry [37]. - As of the end of 2024, the company has opened 200 shopping centers, with a total area of 16.01 million square meters and an average occupancy rate of 97.7% [41][42]. - The total revenue from commercial operations reached 12.808 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 13.1% [42]. 3. Development and Sales - The company has ceased land acquisitions since 2022, leading to a further contraction in development and sales scale [2][57]. - In 2024, the sales amount was 40.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 47.1% [58]. - The company has adequately provisioned for inventory impairment, with a provision of 11.56 billion yuan, representing 10.6% of the inventory book balance [69]. 4. Financial Overview - The company has successfully reduced its interest-bearing debt and optimized its debt structure, with a financing cost of 5.92% in 2024, down 28 basis points from 2023 [2][74]. - As of the end of 2024, the total interest-bearing debt was 54.1 billion yuan, a decrease of 4.9% from the previous year [75]. 5. Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company is expected to see a gradual recovery in profitability, with projected net profits of 89.9 billion yuan, 124.5 billion yuan, and 141.9 billion yuan for 2025-2027 [3][83]. - The report suggests that the company's stock price could reach a reasonable range of 14.83 to 17.55 yuan by 2025, corresponding to a price-to-book ratio of 0.55 to 0.65 [3].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - In March 2025, new home sales prices in 70 cities showed a stable month-on-month decline, while year-on-year declines narrowed. First-tier cities experienced a month-on-month increase in new home prices, indicating a potential recovery trend in the market [8][29] - The report suggests that both new and second-hand home prices are expected to improve further, supported by more proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies, which may accelerate urban renewal projects and improve the existing housing supply-demand relationship [8][29] Summary by Sections New Home Prices - New home prices in first, second, and third-tier cities changed month-on-month by +0.1%, 0.0%, and -0.2% respectively, with an overall month-on-month decline of -0.1% across 70 cities, remaining stable compared to February [5][15] - Year-on-year, new home prices in first, second, and third-tier cities decreased by -2.8%, -4.4%, and -5.7% respectively, with the overall year-on-year decline for 70 cities at -5.0%, a reduction of 0.2 percentage points from February [5][15] Second-Hand Home Prices - Second-hand home prices in March showed a month-on-month decline of -0.2%, with the decline narrowing by 0.1 percentage points. First-tier cities saw a month-on-month increase, while second and third-tier cities experienced smaller declines [6][22] - Year-on-year, second-hand home prices across 70 cities decreased by -7.3%, with first, second, and third-tier cities showing declines of -4.1%, -7.0%, and -7.8% respectively, also reflecting a narrowing of declines [6][22] Market Performance - In March 2025, Shanghai led the new home price increases with a month-on-month rise of +0.7% and a year-on-year increase of +5.7%. Among the 35 key cities, only Shanghai showed a month-on-month increase in new home prices [7][28] - The report highlights that the number of cities with rising new home prices increased to 24 in March, compared to 18 in February, indicating a positive shift in the market [17][18] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on strong credit real estate companies that can capture improving customer demand, such as Greentown China, China Overseas Development, and China Merchants Shekou [8][29] - It also suggests companies benefiting from both residential and commercial real estate recovery, such as New Town Holdings and Longfor Group, as well as those in the second-hand housing market like Beike-W and I Love My Home [8][29]

Group 1 - The China Securities Real Estate Theme Index (000948) has seen a strong increase of 3.11% as of April 17, 2025, with notable gains in constituent stocks such as New Town Holdings (601155) up 10.03%, and others like Binjiang Group (002244) up 6.28% and Poly Development (600048) up 3.96% [1] - The Real Estate ETF (159768) rose by 3.46%, with the latest price reported at 0.57 yuan. Over the past two weeks, the ETF has accumulated a rise of 0.73% [1] - The trading volume for the Real Estate ETF showed a turnover of 6.14% during the session, with a transaction value of 30.21 million yuan. The average daily transaction value over the past year was 41.70 million yuan [1] - The Real Estate ETF has achieved a net value increase of 15.30% over the past year, with the highest monthly return since inception being 34.85% and an average monthly return of 10.98% [1] Group 2 - Guolian Minsheng indicates that the storage of existing housing still requires support, suggesting a future trend towards "long-term holding and short-term release." As of April 10, 2025, the amount of land intended for storage using special bonds reached 12.8 billion yuan, with 40.2 billion yuan already issued [2] - The storage of existing housing faces challenges such as project yield rates and entry thresholds. Future policies may focus less on short-term profits and more on long-term benefits, potentially accelerating the implementation of existing housing storage [2] - There are signs of recovery in real estate sales driven by policy support since Q4 2024, with local government regulations expected to remain relaxed. It is anticipated that first-tier cities will primarily ease restrictions in peripheral areas, while other cities may shift from restrictions to subsidy support [2]

申银万国研究所指出，去年9月底以来"止跌回稳"政策组合拳走在正确的道路上，在需求侧，政府持续 要求"止跌回稳"和"稳住楼市股市"表明了强调修复居民资产负债表并释放消费的政策思路，而供给侧， 政府要求"严控增量"以及推进收储和推好地好房子等措施则表明了强调通过新房保价引导市场价格修复 的政策思路，并预计后续政策仍将在供需两端持续发力。 西部证券认为，房地产作为可选消费，需求潜力仍有进一步释放空间，为扩大内需提供动能，新一轮政 策出台预期提升。 地产LOF(160628)，一键共享房地产复苏发展机遇。 消息面上，国家统计局16日发布2025年3月份70个大中城市商品住宅销售价格变动情况。70个大中城市 中，商品住宅销售价格环比上涨城市个数增加；一线城市商品住宅销售价格环比上涨。 除此之外，各地仍在积极优化房地产相关政策。比如，多地优化公积金贷款政策，优化方向主要包括降 低首套房、二套房公积金贷款首付比例，提高公积金贷款最高额度，优化公积金贷款住房套数认定标 准，优化"商转公"，支持提取公积金用于首付等。此外，还有一些城市推出特色金融产品，一些城市在 购房补贴、住房"以旧换新"等方面加大政策支持力度。 国家统计局表 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [4] Core Viewpoints - In March 2025, the decline in new home sales and new construction area significantly narrowed, indicating a potential recovery in the real estate market [1][2] - The cumulative sales area of commercial housing from January to March 2025 showed a year-on-year growth rate of -3%, an improvement from -5.1% previously, while the cumulative sales amount decreased by -2.1% compared to -2.6% previously [1] - The cumulative new construction area from January to March 2025 had a year-on-year growth rate of -24.4%, improving from -29.6% previously, and the cumulative completion area showed a decline of -14.3%, also an improvement from -15.6% [2] - The funding for real estate development companies saw a year-on-year growth rate of -3.7% from January to March 2025, slightly worsening from -3.6% previously, with a notable decline in self-raised funds [3] Summary by Sections Sales Data - In March 2025, the sales area of new homes showed a year-on-year growth rate of -0.9%, improving from -5.1% previously, while the sales amount decreased by -1.6% compared to -2.6% previously [1] Development Investment - The cumulative development investment from January to March 2025 had a year-on-year growth rate of -9.9%, slightly worsening from -9.8% previously, with March showing a single-month decline of -10% [2] Funding Sources - The year-on-year growth rate of funding for real estate development companies in March 2025 was -3.9%, worsening from -3.6% previously, with self-raised funds declining by -11.7% [3] Investment Recommendations - Short-term focus on valuation recovery opportunities due to policy easing, and long-term focus on leading companies with core city resources and real estate operation capabilities, such as Poly Developments, China Resources Land, and others [3]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Company and Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the real estate industry, specifically focusing on Xincheng Holdings, a company involved in residential and commercial property development [1][2][3]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Market Conditions**: The real estate market is currently experiencing a slowdown, particularly in first-tier cities, although transactions in cities like Chengdu and Hangzhou remain relatively stable [1]. - **Government Policies**: There has been a shift from market-driven policies to more government intervention, which may impact the market dynamics and recovery [2]. - **Company Resilience**: Despite challenges, Xincheng Holdings is viewed as having potential for recovery and growth, particularly in its commercial sector, which has shown resilience [3][6]. - **Commercial Performance**: The company’s commercial properties are performing well, with a focus on maintaining growth despite economic pressures [6][8]. - **Sales Trends**: Sales figures have shown a decline, with a reported drop of 44% compared to previous months, indicating ongoing challenges in the residential development sector [11]. - **Financial Health**: The company is managing its financials cautiously, with a focus on maintaining cash flow and reducing debt levels [16][19]. Additional Important Points - **Family Ownership**: Xincheng Holdings is characterized as a family-run business, which may influence its operational stability and decision-making processes [6]. - **Market Positioning**: The company has strategically positioned itself in third and fourth-tier cities, where competition is less intense compared to first-tier cities [9][10]. - **Future Projections**: Revenue projections for 2025 are estimated at approximately 14 billion, with expectations for continued growth in the commercial sector [10]. - **Valuation Concerns**: The company’s valuation remains a topic of discussion, with analysts suggesting a cautious approach to investment due to existing financial pressures [19]. - **Risk Factors**: Potential risks include ongoing financial pressures and the need for strategic asset management to avoid significant losses [20]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed during the conference call, providing insights into the current state and future outlook of Xincheng Holdings and the broader real estate industry.

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Positive" [7][51]. Core Viewpoints - The real estate market in Q2 is experiencing a downturn, with a focus on whether unexpected policies will be introduced to stabilize the market [2]. - In 2025, under the goal of "stopping the decline and stabilizing," it is expected that the relaxation of purchase restrictions in first-tier cities will increase, and urban village renovations will accelerate [3][51]. - The report highlights that the sales volume of new homes in 44 major cities is approximately 20,000 units, showing a 23% increase month-on-month (excluding the Spring Festival effect), which is higher than the 13% increase in 2024 but lower than the 24% increase in 2023 [51]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - In the 15th week, the real estate sector index outperformed both the CSI 300 index and the ChiNext index, with a relative return of 1.2% compared to the CSI 300 index [11]. - The CSI 300 index closed at 3750.52 with a weekly decline of 2.9%, while the real estate index (Shenwan) closed at 2190.21 with a weekly decline of 1.7% [11][15]. Sales Data - In the 15th week, new home sales in 44 major cities were 14,000 units, a decrease of 28.8% from the previous week, while second-hand home sales in 21 major cities increased by 15.3% to 21,000 units [16]. - Inventory in 18 major cities increased to 842,000 units, with a sales-to-inventory ratio of 23.7 months, indicating a slight increase in inventory pressure [23]. Policy Developments - Local policies include Guangzhou's "land acquisition and immediate construction" model, Fuzhou's new housing provident fund regulations, and Hainan's increase in maximum loan limits for new self-occupied housing [13][21]. - Nanjing has introduced a government subsidy program to promote housing consumption through "old-for-new" exchanges [21]. Company Recommendations - The report recommends buying shares of Poly Developments (600048) and China Merchants Shekou (001979), while suggesting to pay attention to China Resources Land (01109), Yuexiu Property (00123), and others [3][51]. - Additionally, it recommends investing in real estate intermediary platforms like Beike-W (02423) that will benefit from policy support and increased market activity [3][51].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [7][51] Core Viewpoints - The real estate market in Q2 is experiencing a downturn, with a focus on whether unexpected policies will be introduced to stabilize the market [2] - In 2025, under the goal of "stopping the decline and stabilizing," it is expected that the relaxation of purchase restrictions in first-tier cities will increase, and urban village renovations will accelerate [3][51] - The report highlights that high-quality land reserves and strong product capabilities in leading cities will provide alpha attributes for real estate companies [3][51] Summary by Sections Market Performance - In the 15th week, the real estate sector index outperformed both the CSI 300 index and the ChiNext index, with a relative return of 1.2% compared to the CSI 300 index [11] - The CSI 300 index closed at 3750.52 with a weekly decline of 2.9%, while the real estate index (Shenwan) closed at 2190.21 with a weekly decline of 1.7% [11][15] Sales Data - In the 15th week, new home sales in 44 major cities were 14,000 units, a decrease of 28.8% from the previous week, while second-hand home sales in 21 major cities increased by 15.3% to 21,000 units [16] - Inventory in 18 major cities increased to 842,000 units, with a sales-to-inventory ratio of 23.7 months, up by 0.7 months from the previous week [23] Policy Developments - Local policies include Guangzhou's "land acquisition immediately followed by construction" model and adjustments to housing provident fund regulations in various cities [13][21] - The report notes that the issuance of 9.415 billion yuan in special bonds for land reserves in Hunan is aimed at stimulating the market [21] Company Recommendations - Recommended stocks include Poly Developments (600048, Buy) and China Merchants Shekou (001979, Buy) [3][51] - Companies to watch include China Resources Land (01109, Not Rated) and Yuexiu Property (00123, Not Rated) [3][51] Market Trends - The report indicates that the market recovery momentum in 2025 is stronger than in 2024 but weaker than in 2023, with ongoing downward pressure on new home sales [51] - The report emphasizes that the future trajectory of the real estate market will largely depend on the interplay between export performance and economic policies [51]