Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the coal industry, indicating an expectation for performance improvement due to supply contraction leading to a rebound in coal prices and company performance [1]. Core Insights - The domestic raw coal production increased by 7.7% year-on-year in the first two months of 2025, totaling 765 million tons, while coal imports saw a decline of 0.9% year-on-year [2][3]. - The average price of thermal coal and coking coal at ports dropped significantly in Q1 2025, with thermal coal prices falling approximately 19.92% year-on-year and coking coal prices down about 40.21% year-on-year [2][16]. - Key companies in the coal sector are expected to report varying performance in their Q1 2025 earnings, with China Shenhua and Electric Power Investment Energy showing better-than-expected results, while Shaanxi Black Cat is anticipated to underperform [2][18]. Summary by Sections Supply and Demand Dynamics - Domestic raw coal production increased by 600.6 million tons, a 7.7% rise compared to the same period in 2024, with significant contributions from Shanxi (20.3% increase) and Inner Mongolia (2.0% increase) [3][8]. - Coal imports for the first three months of 2025 totaled 11.5 million tons, reflecting a 0.9% decrease year-on-year, with March marking the first month of negative growth since January 2023 [11][13]. Price Trends - The average price of 5500 kcal thermal coal at ports was approximately 723 RMB/ton in Q1 2025, down from 903 RMB/ton in Q1 2024, marking a decline of 19.92% [2][16]. - Coking coal prices also saw a significant drop, with the average price for Shanxi's main coking coal at 1444 RMB/ton in Q1 2025, down 40.21% from 2416 RMB/ton in Q1 2024 [2][17]. Company Performance Forecasts - China Shenhua is expected to report an EPS of 0.70, a year-on-year decrease of 12.94%, while Electric Power Investment Energy is projected to have an EPS of 0.84, down 3.6% year-on-year [2][18]. - Companies like Shaanxi Coal and Yanzhou Coal are expected to report earnings that are in line with expectations, while Shaanxi Black Cat is forecasted to underperform with an EPS of -0.27, a significant drop of 169.28% year-on-year [2][18]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies benefiting from increased market coal and stable operations with high dividends, such as China Shenhua and Shaanxi Coal, while also considering undervalued companies like Huabei Mining and Pingmei Shenma [2].

Group 1: Core Views - The coal price is expected to find a reasonable bottom support at 640-650 RMB/ton, with the industry unlikely to return to 2015 levels [1] - The coal sector is anticipated to see an upward turning point in April 2025, with prices expected to rebound in June due to summer peak demand [2] - The focus on dividend assets is expected to increase due to intensified market volatility from trade frictions [1] Group 2: Thermal Coal Insights - The coal industry has released sufficient risk, and upward potential is expected after April 2025, with the northern Huanghua Port Q5500 price stable at 675 RMB/ton [2] - Domestic production in Xinjiang has decreased, and coal transportation has shown a decline, while overseas imports are expected to decrease starting March [2] - Non-electric coal demand is projected to accelerate in April, potentially driving coal prices back up [2] Group 3: Coking Coal Analysis - The bottom for coking coal prices is expected to be established alongside thermal coal prices, with the main coking coal price at 1380 RMB/ton remaining stable [3] - The introduction of a market-oriented index by the Mongolian Exchange aims to boost exports, although supply and demand for coking coal remain under pressure [3] - The first round of price increases for coke has begun, but the rebound potential is limited [3] Group 4: Industry Review - As of April 12, 2025, the main coking coal price at Jing Tang Port is 1380 RMB/ton, with a total inventory of 339.9 million tons across three ports [4] - The Australian Newcastle Port Q5500 offshore price increased by 1 USD/ton, while the northern port's price is 650 RMB/ton higher than Australian imports [4] - The cost of Australian coking coal has risen by 5 USD/ton, with domestic coking coal being cheaper than imported hard coking coal by 213 RMB/ton [4]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.76% on April 14, with 29 out of 31 sectors experiencing gains, led by textiles and apparel, and coal, which increased by 2.56% and 2.50% respectively [1] - The net inflow of capital in the two markets was 1.933 billion yuan, with 19 sectors seeing net inflows, particularly the non-ferrous metals sector, which had a net inflow of 2.311 billion yuan and a daily increase of 2.46% [1] Coal Industry Performance - The coal industry saw a daily increase of 2.50%, with a net inflow of 391 million yuan, and all 37 stocks in this sector rose, including 2 stocks hitting the daily limit [2] - Among the stocks in the coal sector, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry led with a net inflow of 93.799 million yuan, followed by China Shenhua and Anyuan Coal with net inflows of 79.774 million yuan and 67.129 million yuan respectively [2] Capital Flow in Coal Stocks - The top coal stocks by net capital inflow included: - Shaanxi Coal: +4.46% with 93.799 million yuan inflow - China Shenhua: +1.53% with 79.774 million yuan inflow - Anyuan Coal: +9.91% with 67.129 million yuan inflow [2][3] - Conversely, the stocks with the highest net outflows included: - Xinjikang Energy: -2.71% with a net outflow of 7.026 million yuan - Yunwei Co.: -2.97% with a net outflow of 6.5537 million yuan - Panjiang Coal: -1.52% with a net outflow of 5.7516 million yuan [3]

资料显示，该指数系列样本每半年调整一次，样本调整实施时间分别为每年6月和12月第二个星期五的 下一交易日。权重因子随样本定期调整而调整，调整时间与指数样本定期调整实施时间相同。在下一个 定期调整日前，权重因子一般固定不变。特殊情况下将对该指数系列样本进行临时调整。当样本退市 时，将其从指数样本中剔除。样本公司发生收购、合并、分拆等情形的处理，参照计算与维护细则处 理。当中证沪港深互联互通综合指数和中证沪港深500指数样本发生变动时，将进行相应调整。 从指数持仓来看，中证沪港深互联互通上游指数十大权重分别为：紫金矿业（8.21%）、中国海洋石油 （7.92%）、中国神华（3.64%）、中国石油股份（3.06%）、中国神华（2.85%）、紫金矿业 （2.72%）、中国石油化工股份（2.55%）、中国石油（2.49%）、中国石化（2.36%）、陕西煤业 （2.15%）。 从中证沪港深互联互通上游指数持仓的市场板块来看，上海证券交易所占比50.31%、香港证券交易所 占比27.39%、深圳证券交易所占比22.29%。 从中证沪港深互联互通上游指数持仓样本的行业来看，石油与天然气占比22.99%、工业金属占比 18.8 ...

Group 1 - The coal sector is experiencing a significant upward movement, with companies like Dayou Energy and Anyuan Coal Industry hitting the daily limit, indicating strong market interest [1] - Institutions suggest that the current phase marks the beginning of a new upward cycle for the coal economy, driven by favorable fundamentals and policies, making it an opportune time to invest in the coal sector [1] - According to Xinda Securities, the supply-demand imbalance in coal is expected to persist over the next 3-5 years, with high-quality coal companies maintaining attributes such as high barriers to entry, strong cash flow, and attractive dividends [1][2] Group 2 - The coal supply bottleneck is anticipated to continue until the 14th Five-Year Plan, necessitating the construction of new quality production capacities to meet long-term energy demands in China [2] - The rising costs of domestic economic development and imported coal are expected to support high coal price levels, reinforcing the attractiveness of the coal sector as a high-performance, high-dividend asset class [2] - The coal industry is characterized by high profitability, long cycles, and significant barriers to entry, with recent macroeconomic improvements and new regulations enhancing the certainty of profitability and growth for quality coal companies [2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coal industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the potential for coal investments due to the expected recovery in domestic demand amid escalating trade tensions. The coal market is viewed as a defensive asset class, particularly in light of the current economic environment and monetary policy shifts [3][4][13]. - The coal prices have stabilized at ports, with CCTD thermal coal Q5500 priced at 676 CNY/ton, remaining unchanged week-on-week. The report notes that the market sentiment is improving as inventory issues begin to ease [3][4]. - The report outlines several factors that could support a rebound in coal prices, including the long-term contract price ceiling, the maintenance of the annual contract system, and the linkage between coal and electricity prices [3][4]. Summary by Sections Investment Logic - The coal sector is entering a "Golden Era 2.0," with core value assets expected to rise again. The current weak domestic economy and external pressures from U.S. tariffs create a favorable environment for coal as a stable dividend investment [4][13]. - The cyclical nature of coal stocks is highlighted, with both thermal and coking coal prices at low levels, suggesting potential for recovery as supply-demand fundamentals improve [4][13]. Key Market Indicators - The report provides a snapshot of key indicators, noting that the coal sector has underperformed the CSI 300 index by 2.17 percentage points, with a weekly decline of 5.04% [8][10]. - The current PE ratio for the coal sector is 10.2, and the PB ratio is 1.16, indicating relatively low valuations compared to other sectors [10][14]. Coal Price Trends - Port coal prices have remained stable, with the Qinhuangdao port price holding steady. The report notes a slight increase in prices at some production sites, indicating a mixed market response [3][4][16]. - The report also highlights the international coal price trends, with Newcastle prices showing slight increases, while domestic prices remain competitive against imports [16][17]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - As of April 6, the operating rate of coal mines in Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia was 81.7%, a slight decrease from the previous week. Coastal power plants' daily coal consumption has also seen a minor decline [3][4][16]. - The report indicates that non-electric coal demand is showing signs of improvement, with methanol and urea production rates increasing, which may further support coal inventory reduction [3][4][16]. Company Performance and Recommendations - The report lists several coal companies with strong dividend potential and cyclical recovery prospects, including China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and China Coal Energy, among others [4][14][18]. - The report suggests that the coal sector is likely to see increased capital inflows as institutional investors recognize the current valuation as a bottoming opportunity [4][13].

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 】 2025 04 13 年 月 日 煤炭开采 3 重倒挂助煤价以时间换空间，"中特煤"以行动书写担当 行情回顾（2025.4.7~2025.4.11）： 基本面方面，我们持续强调"把握行业本质属性，坚定信心、坚守定力"。 "一利稳定增长，五率持续优化"，着力提高央企控股上市公司质量，强化投资者回 报。 中信煤炭指数 3,157.77 点，下跌 5.04%，跑输沪深 300 指数 2.16pct，位列中信板 块涨跌幅榜第 16 位。 本周两大煤炭央企发声"积极支持控股上市公司高质量发展"。此外，多部委机构打 出稳市组合拳，场外增量资金充足，我们认为"财务报表优异，低资本开支&现金流 充裕，具备高分红、高股息的央企"尤为受益。 考虑到煤价属周期波动，煤炭企业或通过加大成本管控力度，保证企业效益稳步提 升。以神华、中煤两大央企为例，在 24 年煤价中枢明显下移的背景下，其业绩降幅 显著低于煤价降幅，降本增效成效显著，诚意满满。 加大回购注销、分红力度，推动资产注入，延伸产业链布局均是提高 ROE 的方向。 重点领域分析： 增持（维持） 行业走势 -30% -2 ...

Investment Rating - The report recommends a "Buy" rating for key coal enterprises such as China Shenhua and China Coal Energy, highlighting their strong financial performance and potential for high dividends [8][10]. Core Viewpoints - The coal industry is experiencing a cyclical downturn, but companies are focusing on cost control and operational efficiency to maintain profitability. Major state-owned enterprises like Shenhua and China Coal have shown a significant reduction in performance decline compared to coal price drops, indicating effective cost management [3][8]. - The report emphasizes the importance of maintaining investor confidence through high-quality development and asset integration within state-owned enterprises [2][3]. - The current coal prices are seen as bottoming out, with expectations of benefiting from domestic policies aimed at stabilizing growth and increasing domestic demand [2][8]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The CITIC Coal Index decreased by 5.04% during the week of April 7-11, 2025, underperforming the CSI 300 Index by 2.16 percentage points [1][75]. - The report notes that the coal market is currently in a phase of narrow fluctuations, with supply stability and limited demand growth impacting price movements [11][33]. Key Company Analysis - China Shenhua's coal production cost for 2024 is reported at 179 RMB/ton, remaining stable year-on-year, while China Coal Energy's cost is 282 RMB/ton, down 25 RMB/ton from the previous year [6][8]. - Both companies are expected to increase share buybacks and dividends, enhancing shareholder returns [8][10]. Market Dynamics - The report indicates that the coal market is characterized by a seasonal downturn, with limited demand from power plants and a shift towards cleaner energy sources impacting coal consumption [11][33]. - The report highlights that the focus on cost control and operational efficiency is crucial for maintaining profitability amid fluctuating coal prices [3][8]. Price Trends - As of April 11, 2025, the price of Qinhuangdao port Q5500 thermal coal is reported at 676 RMB/ton, showing stability week-on-week [11][33]. - The report anticipates that coal prices will remain under pressure due to weak demand and high inventory levels, but significant price drops are not expected in the short term [11][33].

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai Dividend Potential Index (H50020) experienced a slight decline of 0.12%, closing at 6806.28 points, with a trading volume of 35.597 billion yuan, reflecting the overall performance of companies with strong dividend expectations and capabilities [1] Group 1: Index Performance - The Shanghai Dividend Potential Index has increased by 0.47% over the past month and by 2.45% over the past three months, but has decreased by 2.73% year-to-date [1] - The index is based on a comprehensive ranking of securities using indicators such as EPS, undistributed profits per share, and ROE, selecting the top 50 securities to represent the index [1] Group 2: Index Holdings - The top ten weighted stocks in the index are: China Merchants Bank (16.94%), Kweichow Moutai (15.89%), Ping An Insurance (13.85%), Yangtze Power (8.97%), Yili Group (6.89%), China Shenhua Energy (5.92%), Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry (3.54%), Wanhua Chemical (2.54%), Anhui Conch Cement (2.04%), and Fuyao Glass (2.0%) [1] - The index's holdings are entirely composed of stocks listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange, with a 100% representation [1] Group 3: Industry Composition - The industry composition of the index holdings includes: Financials (30.78%), Consumer Staples (29.53%), Energy (13.85%), Utilities (8.97%), Consumer Discretionary (6.53%), Materials (6.01%), Healthcare (1.63%), Information Technology (1.49%), Industrials (0.58%), Communication Services (0.32%), and Real Estate (0.30%) [2] Group 4: Sample Adjustment Criteria - The index samples are adjusted annually, with the next adjustment occurring on the trading day following the second Friday of December [3] - Samples that do not meet the following criteria are removed: (1) Cash dividends distributed in the past year must be at least 30% of the net profit attributable to shareholders; (2) Average total market capitalization must rank within the top 90% of the Shanghai 180 Index; (3) Average trading volume must also rank within the top 90% of the Shanghai 180 Index [3] - The adjustment typically does not exceed 20% unless more than 20% of the original samples are disqualified based on the dividend criteria [3]

| 运营指标 | 单位 | 2025 | 年 | 2024 | 年 | 同比变化（%） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 3 月 | 累计 | 3 月 | 累计 | 3 月 | 累计 | | 一、煤炭 | | | | | | | | | 煤炭产量 | 万吨 | 1,527.00 | 4,393.77 | 1,524.75 | 4,145.21 | 0.15 | 6.00 | | 自产煤销量 | 万吨 | 1,379.00 | 4,096.50 | 1,128.96 | 3,352.52 | 22.15 | 22.19 | | 二、发电 | | | | | | | | | 总发电量 | 亿千瓦时 | 23.99 | 87.38 | 35.25 | 112.83 | -31.96 | -22.55 | | 总售电量 | 亿千瓦时 | 22.41 | 81.45 | 32.90 | 105.49 | -31.88 | -22.79 | 以上主要运营数据来自本公司内部统计，可能与公司定期报告披露的数据有差异， 仅供投资者及时了解公司 ...