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研报掘金丨东吴证券:维持明阳智能“买入”评级,风机历史质量事故风险释放
Ge Long Hui· 2026-01-29 06:46
Core Viewpoint - Mingyang Smart Energy is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 800 to 1,000 million yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 131% to 189% [1] Financial Performance - The net profit for Q4 2025 is projected to be between 34.24 million and 234.24 million yuan, marking a turnaround from a loss of 460 million yuan in Q4 2025, with a quarter-on-quarter change of -78% to +50% [1] - The gross profit margin for wind turbines in Q4 2025 is expected to perform well, leading to an upward revision of the profit forecast for 2025 [1] Strategic Developments - The company has released historical quality accident risks related to wind turbines and is advancing into the domestic satellite power Tier 1 market through the acquisition of Dehua Chip [1] - Zhongshan Dehua Chip Technology Co., Ltd. has passed the AS9100D quality system certification and was selected as a national-level specialized and innovative "little giant" enterprise in 2023, receiving 15 million yuan in project support for key R&D plans in Guangdong Province for 2024 [1] - Following the acquisition, the company will leverage GaAs, perovskite, and HJT technologies simultaneously, and both parties will collaborate on energy management systems and other areas to enhance application validation and commercialization, thereby improving the company's overall competitiveness in the photovoltaic sector [1]
东吴证券:维持曹操出行(02643)“买入”评级 配股加速全球Robotaxi布局
智通财经网· 2026-01-29 02:50
Core Viewpoint - Dongwu Securities maintains a "buy" rating for Cao Cao Mobility (02643), highlighting a clear commercialization path for its Robotaxi business and the establishment of a vehicle technology operation ecosystem [1] Recent Events - On January 28, 2026, the company announced a plan to place no more than 12 million shares, accounting for approximately 2.06% of the enlarged total issued shares, at a price of HKD 32.46 per share, raising a net amount of HKD 383 million, which is about 8.97% lower than the closing price of HKD 35.66 on January 27 [1] Financial Allocation - Approximately 67.7% of the raised funds will be invested in the development of domestic and international Robotaxi businesses, focusing on the procurement of customized Robotaxi vehicles, building matching operational systems, and ongoing core technology research and development [2] - About 22.3% will be used to expand enterprise services through operational investments, platform upgrades, and recent or ongoing acquisitions, such as Weixing Technology and Zhejiang Geely Business Services [2] - The remaining approximately 10% will be allocated for working capital and general corporate purposes [2] Strategic Importance - The company has positioned Robotaxi as a core strategic focus for long-term development, aiming to deploy a total of 100,000 fully customized Robotaxis by 2030, which is a key performance indicator in the new share incentive plan [3] - The company has developed a unique "smart customized vehicle + smart driving technology + smart operation" model, leveraging data, algorithms, and a nationwide service network accumulated over ten years of shared mobility [3] - The second-generation Robotaxi has entered the pilot operation phase, transitioning from human-monitored to unmanned operations, with fully customized models set to debut this year [3] - Internationally, the company has partnered with Abu Dhabi to promote the export of autonomous driving technology and battery swap systems [3]
东吴证券:商业航天迎多重共振 聚焦火箭端卫星端等四大赛道
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2026-01-29 02:44
智通财经APP获悉,东吴证券发布研报称,长期以来,我国商业航天的核心痛点在于"星多箭少"——海 量卫星组网需求受制于极度稀缺的投送能力。2025年12月3日,朱雀三号遥一成功入轨,标志着国产商 业火箭成熟的大规模入轨能力。建议关注SpaceX相关标的、火箭端卫星端、以及太空算力/太空光伏四 大赛道。 东吴证券主要观点如下: 太空算力与太空光伏(前瞻赛道):太空算力:顺灏股份;太空光伏设备:晶盛机电、高测股份、捷佳 伟创、连城数控、宇晶股份、双良节能、拉普拉斯;太空光伏产品:云南锗业、中来股份、乾照光电、 东方日升、钧达股份、明阳智能、上海港湾、琏升科技、天合光能、晶科能源、蓝思科技、凯盛科技。 风险提示:技术验证不及预期、订单兑现不及预期、地缘政治波动风险、市场波动风险等。 战略重要性:发星保轨、防御升维与地外矿权 当前商业航天的竞争本质上是一场关于空间主权与资源份额的"圈地运动"。(1)发星保轨:受限于 ITU"先到先得"的分配准则,近地轨道相位与频谱资源正被星链等超大规模星座迅速挤占,加速提升发 射通量已成为捍卫中国空间生存权的底线。(2)军事维度:商业航天已演变为地月态势感知与天基防 御体系的核心底座, ...
东吴证券:“雨带北移”或推动2026年水利相关投资录得较高增长
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2026-01-29 00:03
Core Viewpoint - Since 2021, the "northward shift of the rain belt" has significantly increased rainfall duration and volume in North China, leading to a rise in flood disasters and disruptions in project commencement. In this context, multiple departments have mentioned the need to accelerate the improvement of flood control and drainage infrastructure in North China by 2026, with water-related investments expected to see high growth in 2026. It is estimated that fixed asset investment in water, environment, and public facility management will increase by approximately 0.5 trillion yuan in 2026, driving infrastructure investment up by about 2.1 percentage points and overall fixed asset investment by about 1.1 percentage points, playing a crucial role in stabilizing investment [1][4][19]. Group 1: Objective Facts of the Northward Shift of the Rain Belt - From 2011 to 2020, the average duration of the rainy season in North China was only 27 days, but since 2021, it has significantly increased, with durations recorded at 59 days and 50 days in 2021 and 2022, respectively. The rainy season in 2025 reached a new high in both duration and precipitation [2][8]. - In 2025, the rainy season in North China began on July 5, 13 days earlier than the average, and ended on September 2, 16 days later than usual, resulting in a total duration of approximately 59 days, the longest since 1961 [9][10]. - The average national precipitation in 2025 was about 668 mm, 4.5% more than the average, with North China's rainy season precipitation reaching 356.6 mm, an increase of 161.1% compared to the norm [10]. Group 2: Economic Impact of the Northward Shift of the Rain Belt - The increase in extreme weather events, such as heavy rainfall, has led to a significant rise in flood disasters in North China. In July 2023, severe flooding in Beijing, Hebei, and Tianjin affected 5.512 million people, with direct economic losses reaching 165.79 billion yuan. In the first three quarters of 2025, flood disasters in North China caused direct economic losses of approximately 97.99 billion yuan, accounting for 59% of the national total [3][11]. - The increase in rainy days has also disrupted project commencement in North China. For instance, during the 2025 rainy season, the cement dispatch rate in North China dropped from 50% to 34%, significantly lower than the seasonal variation of 1.5% observed in the past five years. In Beijing, the dispatch rate fell from 57.5% on July 4, 2025, to 30% by August 29, 2025 [3][11]. Group 3: Potential Growth in Water Investment in 2026 - In response to the increased flood disasters and project disruptions caused by the northward shift of the rain belt, there has been a noticeable increase in policy emphasis on water-related investments in North China. The 2025 Central Economic Work Conference explicitly mentioned the need to address the shortcomings in flood control and drainage infrastructure, with expectations for high growth in water-related investments in 2026 [4][15]. - In the fourth quarter of 2023, China issued 1 trillion yuan in bonds to support post-disaster recovery and enhance disaster prevention and mitigation capabilities, leading to high growth in fixed asset investment in the water, environment, and public facility management sector in 2024. Assuming a similar growth rate in 2026, fixed asset investment in this sector is expected to increase by about 0.5 trillion yuan, contributing to a 2.1 percentage point rise in infrastructure investment and a 1.1 percentage point rise in overall fixed asset investment [19][4].
仕净科技跨界光伏踩雷,股价25年跌超50%,仅剩东吴证券持续覆盖,第三季度营收仅5392万元
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2026-01-28 08:35
炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报,权威,专业,及时,全面,助您挖掘潜力主题机会! 文/新浪财经上海站 途景 靠环保设备起家的仕净科技(301030.SZ),在光伏赛道上付出了沉重代价。 仕净科技自2023年起大举跨界光伏,一口气抛出255亿元押注TOPCon电池片,却正面撞上行业价格战 与供需失衡。项目刚投产便陷入亏损,两年不到累计亏损接近10亿元,历史利润被迅速吞噬,更直接拖 累资金链,诉讼风险集中暴露。 | | 本报告期 | 本报告期比上年同期 | 年初至报告周末 | 年初至报告期末比上 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 增减 | | 年回期增減 | | 营业收入(元) | 53, 922, 274. 08 | -95. 40% | 1, 110, 919, 520, 98 | -65. 44% | | 归属于上市公司股东的 | -105, 388, 400, 40 | -808, 84% | -225, 540, 203, 09 | -256, 77% | | 净利润(元) | | | | | | 归属于上市公司股东的 扣除非经常性损益的净 | -136, 711, ...
东吴证券:AI算力需求发生结构性分化 CPU多核化与需求放量进入确定性通道
智通财经网· 2026-01-28 07:13
Core Insights - The transition from dialogue models to action-oriented agents is reshaping the division of labor between CPUs and GPUs, with a structural differentiation in computing power demand as AI moves towards agent-based applications [1][2] - The execution control flow is becoming CPU-centric, as agent actions involve numerous conditional statements and system calls, making CPUs more suitable for branching tasks compared to GPUs [1][2] - The memory architecture is shifting away from GPUs, as long-context reasoning in agent scenarios generates large KV caches that quickly exhaust GPU memory, while CPUs with large memory capacities are becoming the preferred architecture [1][3] Industry Developments - Major cloud service providers (CSPs) like AWS and Google Cloud are accelerating the development of sandbox environments for agents, enhancing software-level isolation and orchestration capabilities [3] - CPU manufacturers are evolving towards ultra-multicore architectures driven by agent demands, with AMD's Turin reaching up to 192 cores and Intel's Sierra Forest potentially offering up to 288 cores [3] - NVIDIA is increasing the importance of CPUs in its new architectures, indicating a recognition of the need for large-memory CPUs to support extensive KV caches in high-concurrency agent scenarios [3] Investment Recommendations - The company is optimistic about HaiGuang Information and Lanqi Technology, as the former benefits from the elevation of CPU's role in high-concurrency execution driven by agentic AI, while the latter benefits from the synergy of memory and computing power in long-context scenarios [4] - Attention is also recommended for Longxin Technology and Wantong Development (Shudu Technology) due to their potential in this evolving landscape [4]
研报掘金丨东吴证券:首予凯格精机“买入”评级,业绩进入加速兑现阶段
Ge Long Hui A P P· 2026-01-28 06:54
Core Viewpoint - The report from Dongwu Securities highlights that Kaige Precision Machinery has established a strong industry moat in the electronic assembly equipment sector over nearly two decades, benefiting from the explosive demand for AI computing power, leading to a significant turning point in revenue and profit growth [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 775 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 34% [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company reached 121 million yuan, showing a remarkable year-on-year increase of 175% [1] - The increase in profit margin is attributed to the company's profit growth outpacing revenue growth, driven by strong downstream demand for AI [1] Group 2: Product and Market Dynamics - High-precision Class III equipment has become the mainstream sales model, with its proportion in the company's product structure rapidly increasing, contributing to the rise in profit margins [1] - The demand for AI computing infrastructure is driving product high-endization, with industry leaders benefiting significantly [1] - The acceleration of overseas expansion in optical modules and the development of automation equipment are creating new growth drivers for the company [1] Group 3: Market Outlook - The current explosion in AI computing demand has led to a substantial increase in the demand for solder paste printing equipment, resulting in a full order book for the company [1] - The company's performance is entering a phase of accelerated realization, indicating strong future growth potential [1] - The report initiates coverage with a "buy" rating for the company, reflecting confidence in its growth trajectory [1]
研报掘金丨东吴证券:维持柳工“买入”评级,加码矿山机械迎新机遇
Ge Long Hui A P P· 2026-01-28 06:38
Core Viewpoint - Dongwu Securities report indicates that Liugong's net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase by 20% year-on-year in 2025, although impairment and exchange rate fluctuations will negatively impact performance [1] Company Summary - Liugong's mining machinery business is a key focus for the company's "14th Five-Year Plan," with plans to strengthen long-term strategic partnerships with large domestic and international mining enterprises [1] - The company aims to accelerate the deployment of ultra-large and intelligent mining products and comprehensive solutions, positioning mining machinery as the third core business alongside excavators and loaders [1] Industry Summary - Prices of core metals such as gold, silver, and copper are currently high, coupled with a continuous decline in global mining grades, leading to a substantial increase in demand for mining machinery equipment [1] - Due to tower crane impairments and investments in mining machinery, the short-term profit forecast for Liugong has been revised down to 1.6 billion, 1.98 billion, and 2.6 billion yuan for 2025-2027, respectively, from previous estimates of 1.62 billion, 2.34 billion, and 2.79 billion yuan [1] - The current market capitalization corresponds to price-to-earnings ratios of 15, 12, and 9 times for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, while maintaining a "buy" rating [1]
研报掘金丨东吴证券:维持雅化集团“买入”评级,目标价38元
Ge Long Hui A P P· 2026-01-28 06:18
东吴证券研报指出,雅化集团Q4业绩亮眼,略好于预期。公司预告25年归母净利6.0~6.8亿元,同比增 133%~164%,中值6.4亿元;其中Q4归母净利2.7至3.5亿元,同比160至238%,环比34%~75%,中值3.1 亿元。Q4预计公司民爆业务贡献利润1.3-1.5亿元,环比基本持平,全年合计贡献5.5亿,同增10%。公 司布局海外大矿服务业务,目前在非洲、澳洲已获得项目,随着项目推进,将逐步贡献增量,我们预计 未来年复合增长25%+。展望26年,我们预计公司锂盐产能达13万吨,出货量我们预计10万吨+,同比 +67%,权益自有资源规模3.8万吨,若按照碳酸锂价格15万/吨,对应可贡献23亿+利润。同时公司未来 将进一步拓展自有矿山规模。考虑公司碳酸锂涨价弹性,给予26年16x估值,对应目标价38元,维持"买 入"评级。 ...
伊朗地缘“灰犀牛”:哪些价格受影响?
一瑜中的· 2026-01-28 06:10
文 : 华创证券首席经济学家 张瑜 执业证号:S0360518090001 联系人: 付春生(18482259975) 报告摘要 伊朗骚乱似有平息,但"灰犀牛"的地缘风险仍存。本篇报告主要概述伊朗的基本经济国情,侧重自然资 源、优势产业和出口结构。 一、伊朗近期发生了什么? 经济困境引发各地抗议,逐步升级为伊朗全国大规模骚乱,伤亡人数是过往动荡之最。 去年11月开始,伊 朗多地因物价上涨、货币贬值等问题发生抗议,随后扩散至全境并出现暴力骚乱和大规模伤亡,期间全面 断网8天。1月下旬局势趋于缓和。1月21日伊朗官方称近期骚乱事件导致3117人死亡。 地缘冲突风险仍存 。1月22日特朗普表示美国"大型舰队"正驶向伊朗周边。 从经济地理位置看,伊朗对霍尔木兹海峡具有强大控制力。 霍尔木兹海峡是全球能源贸易的咽喉要道,流 经该海峡的石油和其他液体燃料贸易量约占全球消费量约20%,占全球海运贸易量约27%,流经该海峡的 LNG贸易量约占全球LNG贸易量的20%,约占全球天然气贸易量的9%。 二、伊朗的主要自然资源 1、石油:全球探明原油储量第三,目前日产量约320万桶/日,出口量约180万桶/日。 伊朗探明原油储量约 ...