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债市专题研究:科技股牛市对债市影响的海外经验
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2025-10-30 05:16
Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - Referring to the experience of Japan and South Korea during their technology transformation phases, the technology bull market did not significantly impact the bond market. Bond investors need not overly worry about the ongoing technology bull market in the equity market. The linkage between stock and bond markets is more of a short - term factor, and long - term bond market pricing should still consider fundamental factors [1][3][31]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Overseas Experience of the Impact of the Technology Stock Bull Market on the Bond Market Japan: From "Trade - Oriented" to "Technology - Oriented" - After World War II, Japan implemented a "trade - oriented" economic strategy, achieving relatively high economic growth from 1956 - 1973. In the 1970s, due to the loss of labor dividends and the oil crisis, Japan shifted towards a technology - oriented economy [1][10]. - The government introduced a series of policies to support high - tech industries. The VLSI plan promoted the development of the semiconductor industry, leading to a technology stock bull market. From 1970 - 1985, the Nikkei 225 index rose from about 2300 to about 13000, and the information and communication industry index reached 31.75 in 1985, compared to 1 in January 1970 [13][14]. - From 1975 - 1985, the Japanese bond market was highly volatile, mainly due to the two oil crises in 1973 and 1980. The bond yield changed with inflation and policy interest rates, and the stock - bond seesaw effect was not significant. After 1980, there was a period of stock - bond double - bull [18]. South Korea: Comprehensive Promotion of Technology Transformation - South Korea's economic transformation was similar to Japan's, gradually shifting from labor - intensive to capital - intensive and then to technology - intensive. In 1986, it proposed a technology - oriented strategy and launched a series of plans to support high - tech industries [2][23]. - After 1986, the South Korean stock market entered two accelerated growth periods. In the first half of 1997, the stock market rebounded, led by the electrical and electronic equipment industry, while the national bond yield remained stable or declined, showing a simultaneous strengthening of stock and bond markets [2][26]. Comparison with China - China is currently in an important economic transformation stage, with the economic growth engine shifting from traditional industries to emerging industries, and the role of consumption in driving domestic demand increasing. China has formed a technology - led equity market bullish atmosphere [3][29]. - Similar to Japan and South Korea, the linkage between the stock and bond markets in China may be limited. The stock - bond seesaw effect in the third quarter was likely due to short - term factors, and the long - term bond market pricing depends on fundamental and policy factors [3][30].
仕佳光子股价跌5.06%,浙商证券资管旗下1只基金重仓,持有10.3万股浮亏损失38.73万元
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-10-30 03:09
Group 1 - The core point of the news is that Shijia Photon experienced a decline of 5.06% in its stock price, reaching 70.51 yuan per share, with a trading volume of 1.134 billion yuan and a turnover rate of 3.41%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 32.35 billion yuan [1] - Shijia Photon, established on October 26, 2010, and listed on August 12, 2020, is located in Hebi City, Henan Province. The company specializes in optical chips and devices, indoor optical cables, and cable materials, with its main products including PLC splitter chip series, AWG chip series, DFB laser chip series, optical fiber connectors, indoor optical cables, and cable materials [1] - The revenue composition of Shijia Photon is as follows: optical chips and devices account for 70.52%, indoor optical cables 15.11%, cable polymer materials 12.66%, and others 1.72% [1] Group 2 - From the perspective of fund holdings, Zheshang Securities Asset Management has a fund that heavily invests in Shijia Photon. The Zheshang Huijin Quantitative Selected Mixed A Fund (006449) held 103,000 shares in the third quarter, representing 4% of the fund's net value, making it the tenth largest holding [2] - The Zheshang Huijin Quantitative Selected Mixed A Fund (006449) was established on March 25, 2019, with a current scale of 183 million yuan. Year-to-date, it has achieved a return of 83.03%, ranking 249 out of 8,152 in its category; over the past year, it has returned 59.89%, ranking 699 out of 8,038; and since inception, it has returned 78.66% [2]
浙商证券宏观联席首席分析师廖博:发展新质生产力将是政策的重中之重
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-10-28 13:15
Core Viewpoint - The primary goal during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period is to achieve "high-quality development," indicating a continuation of current policy themes focused on economic structural transformation and the promotion of new productive forces [1] Policy Focus - The policies will prioritize enhancing technological self-reliance and developing new productive forces, which are deemed crucial for achieving high-quality development [1] - There is a call for the establishment of a unified national market to address issues of disorderly competition in industrial development [1] - The promotion of common prosperity is highlighted as essential to address employment and livelihood issues arising from industrial upgrades [1] - A coordinated approach to building a strong education, technology, and talent framework is necessary to ensure talent supply during the industrial upgrade process, thereby leveraging the demographic dividend [1]
浙商证券:维持泡泡玛特“买入”评级 四季度推新值得期待
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-10-28 09:18
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that the company maintains a "buy" rating for Pop Mart (09992), projecting net profit for 2025-2027 to be 13 billion, 17.9 billion, and 22.9 billion respectively, with adjusted net profits of 14 billion, 19.2 billion, and 24 billion, reflecting year-on-year growth of 312%, 37%, and 25% [1] - The company reported Q3 2025 performance with overall revenue growth of 245-250% year-on-year, exceeding expectations, with domestic revenue (including Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan) growing by 185-190% and overseas revenue by 365-370% [1] - The performance of offline channels in China saw a year-on-year increase of 130-135%, while online channels experienced a growth of 300-305% [1] Group 2 - The overseas growth is highlighted, with Q3 2025 revenue in the Asia-Pacific region increasing by 170-175%, the Americas by 1265-1270%, and Europe and other regions by 735-740% [2] - The company is currently in a rapid store expansion phase in the United States, with the SPX Wednesday pop-up in New York generating significant interest, and the brand's value continues to rise [2] - Looking ahead, the company is expected to launch new products in Q4, with a strong focus on the upcoming holiday season, including Halloween, Thanksgiving, Black Friday, and Christmas [2]
浙商证券:维持泡泡玛特(09992)“买入”评级 四季度推新值得期待
智通财经网· 2025-10-28 07:53
Core Viewpoint - Company maintains a "buy" rating for Pop Mart (09992) with projected net profits of 13 billion, 17.9 billion, and 22.9 billion yuan for 2025-2027, reflecting significant growth in adjusted net profits [1][2] Financial Performance - Company reported Q3 2025 revenue growth of 245-250% year-on-year, exceeding expectations [1] - Revenue from China (including Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan) grew by 185-190% year-on-year, while overseas revenue surged by 365-370% [1] - Q3 2025 offline channel revenue increased by 130-135% year-on-year, and online channel revenue rose by 300-305% [1] Product and IP Development - LABUBU's secondary market price has remained stable over the past 20 days, with hidden and popular items maintaining a premium [1] - The popularity of the "Star People" series is rising, with MINI plush toys showing a premium of 42-503% [1] - Collaborations with popular IPs, such as the Xiaoye X Sun Yanzi figurine and SPX Wednesday plush, are expanding the brand's reach [1] - The company is entering a new phase of IP expansion with Halloween-themed products and the anticipated release of BJD figures [1] International Growth - Significant growth in overseas markets, with Q3 2025 revenue from the Asia-Pacific region increasing by 170-175%, the Americas by 1265-1270%, and Europe and other regions by 735-740% [2] - The U.S. market is currently in a rapid store expansion phase, with high demand for new products [2] - Upcoming Q4 product launches are expected to drive further growth, particularly during the holiday season [2] Long-term Strategy - The company is focused on a strategy of strong IP development, category expansion, and international growth, with performance consistently exceeding expectations [2] - Long-term, the company is enhancing its competitive advantage through effective IP creation and operational mechanisms, emphasizing its platform value [2]
研报掘金丨浙商证券:维持纽威股份“买入”评级,Q3业绩超预期,合同负债同比增256%
Ge Long Hui A P P· 2025-10-28 06:11
Core Viewpoint - The report from Zheshang Securities indicates that Nuway Co., Ltd. achieved a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.11 billion yuan in the first three quarters, representing a year-on-year increase of 34.5% [1] Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the net profit attributable to shareholders was 480 million yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 40.4% [1] - As of the end of Q3 2025, the company's contract liabilities reached 650 million yuan, a significant year-on-year increase of 256% [1] - Inventory stood at 2.72 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 13.9% [1] Market Position and Strategy - The company operates globally, covering over 90 countries across five continents, with four manufacturing plants for castings and forgings located in Suzhou, Dafeng, and Liyang to meet order demands [1] - The company is positioned to achieve over 60% of its revenue from overseas markets in 2024, with downstream applications in oil and gas, marine engineering, water treatment, power, and new energy sectors [1] - Currently, the company's global market share is relatively low compared to industry leader Emerson, indicating significant growth potential as the company continues to advance into the mid-to-high-end valve market [1]
华友钴业股价跌5.02%,浙商证券资管旗下1只基金重仓,持有14.01万股浮亏损失45.53万元
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-10-28 06:09
Group 1 - The core point of the news is that Huayou Cobalt experienced a decline of 5.02% in its stock price, reaching 61.43 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 4.954 billion CNY and a turnover rate of 4.22%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 116.672 billion CNY [1] - Huayou Cobalt, established on May 22, 2002, and listed on January 29, 2015, is primarily engaged in the research and manufacturing of new energy lithium battery materials and cobalt new materials [1] - The company's main business revenue composition includes: nickel products (34.54%), cathode materials (16.28%), trading and others (15.55%), nickel intermediates (14.91%), copper products (5.95%), ternary precursors (5.25%), lithium products (4.18%), and cobalt products (3.33%) [1] Group 2 - From the perspective of major fund holdings, one fund under Zheshang Securities Asset Management has a significant position in Huayou Cobalt, specifically the Zheshang Zhijiang Phoenix ETF (512190), which held 140,100 shares in the second quarter, accounting for 8.84% of the fund's net value, making it the third-largest holding [2] - The Zheshang Zhijiang Phoenix ETF (512190) was established on August 5, 2019, with a latest scale of 58.662 million CNY, and has achieved a year-to-date return of 39.76%, ranking 1194 out of 4218 in its category [2] - The fund manager of Zheshang Zhijiang Phoenix ETF is Zhou Wenchao, who has been in the position for 4 years and 187 days, with the fund's total asset size at 251 million CNY, achieving a best return of 67.07% and a worst return of 1.31% during his tenure [3]
研报掘金丨浙商证券:维持创世纪“买入”评级,3C需求旺盛、新业务拓展促增长
Ge Long Hui A P P· 2025-10-28 06:00
Core Viewpoint - The report from Zheshang Securities indicates that Genesis achieved a net profit attributable to shareholders of approximately 348 million yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 72.56% [1] - In Q3, the net profit attributable to shareholders was about 115 million yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 164.38% but a quarter-on-quarter decline of 14.96% [1] Company Performance - The growth in performance for the first three quarters of 2025 is primarily attributed to the sustained high prosperity of the 3C industry, with the company's flagship product, the 3C-type drilling and milling machining center, demonstrating strong market competitiveness [1] - The company's market share is leading the industry, indicating a robust position in the market [1] Industry Trends - The consumer electronics industry is currently in a recovery phase, coupled with an upward trend in innovation cycles [1] - Apple, as a leading player in consumer electronics, maintains a strong competitive advantage and is expected to continue driving industry growth during the new innovation cycle, with terminal sales likely to exceed expectations [1] - The demand for upstream equipment in the supply chain is anticipated to show unexpected elasticity due to the recovery in terminal sales [1] - New fields such as humanoid robots and low-altitude economy are experiencing significant growth from 0 to 1 development, which is expected to substantially increase demand for upstream equipment [1] Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, reflecting confidence in its growth prospects and market position [1]
研报掘金丨浙商证券:亚星锚链三季报业绩超预期,维持“买入”评级
Ge Long Hui· 2025-10-28 05:31
Core Viewpoint - The report from Zheshang Securities indicates that Yaxing Anchor Chain achieved a net profit attributable to shareholders of 211 million yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 9.38% [1] - The company reported a net profit of 96.74 million yuan in Q3, showing a year-on-year growth of 77.72% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 55.9% [1] - The company is expected to benefit from the upward cycle of the ship oil service industry and the development of floating wind power [1] Market Potential - Over 80% of the world's offshore wind resources are located in deep waters exceeding 60 meters, making floating wind power a significant trend for future offshore wind development [1] - The floating wind power industry is currently in the early stages of commercialization, with expectations to enter a commercial phase by 2030 [1] - According to the Global Wind Energy Council, it is estimated that the global floating wind power installed capacity will add 1.03 GW by 2030, with a CAGR of 70% from 2024 to 2030 [1] - By 2034, the installed capacity is projected to reach 5.724 GW, with a CAGR of 63% from 2024 to 2034 [1] - The estimated market space for mooring chains corresponding to the new installed capacity of floating wind power in 2034 is approximately 14.3 billion yuan [1] Competitive Advantage - The company has won multiple orders for mining chains from major clients such as State Energy and China Shenhua [1] - It is anticipated that the company will leverage its leading technology in ship anchor chains and offshore mooring chains to benefit from the domestic substitution of mining chains [1] - The outlook for the company in the shipbuilding, offshore engineering, floating wind power, and mining chain sectors is positive, maintaining a "buy" rating [1]
研报掘金丨浙商证券:维持卫星化学“买入”评级,成本优势显著,后续新增项目众多
Ge Long Hui· 2025-10-28 05:29
Core Viewpoint - Satellite Chemical achieved a net profit of 4.238 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 3.67% [1] - The company is expected to maintain long-term growth due to its strong competitive position and ongoing projects in the C2 and C3 sectors [1] Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.011 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year decline of 38.21% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 13.95% [1] - The overall performance reflects the company's ability to adapt to market demands despite short-term fluctuations [1] Industry Position and Strategy - The company leverages its advantages in the C2 and C3 full industry chain, focusing on functional chemicals, polymer new materials, and new energy materials [1] - Key products such as polyethylene, acrylic acid and esters, and ethylene glycol are experiencing strong market demand, with efficient alignment of production capacity and sales [1] Sustainability and Innovation - The company is enhancing its ESG standards and operational efficiency through dual drives of green low-carbon initiatives and technological innovation [1] - Satellite Chemical is positioned as a leader in light hydrocarbon integration, with significant cost advantages and numerous upcoming projects [1] Growth Outlook - The ongoing development of new projects in the C2 and C3 sectors is expected to support the company's medium to long-term growth trajectory [1] - The strategic focus on high-end new materials is anticipated to accelerate the upgrade of the industrial chain [1]