紫金矿业2024年A股和H股股价走势。图源：紫金矿业2024年年报 本报记者 梁宝欣 深圳报道 有色金属行业龙头紫金矿业（02899.HK/601899.SH）交出了2024年的业绩单，营收突破3000亿元，归母净利润大 增超五成至320.5亿元。 紫金矿业将这一成绩归因于主产品量价齐升及显著的成本控制成效。铜和金是紫金矿业的主要矿产品。产量上， 2024年紫金矿业矿产铜107万吨，同比增长6%；矿产金73吨，同比增长8%。价格方面，2024年LME铜价均价同比 涨7.9%，伦敦金价均价同比涨23%。成本上，2024年紫金矿业铜精矿、金精矿销售成本环比分别下降4.3%和 0.43%。 值得一提的是，记者观察到，去年紫金矿业资源储量实现大幅增长，其中相当一部分增量来自收购海外矿产。而 在3月24日举行的2024年业绩说明会上，紫金矿业董事长陈景河在回答《华夏时报》记者提问时表示，公司是全球 化发展的坚定践行者，坚持巩固全球项目优势，适时适度加大中亚等中国周边地区投资布局，扩大中国境内重点 区域资源勘查及投资开发力度。 此外，陈景河还在业绩会上直接承认，紫金矿业目前的市值管理做得"不算很好"。"我们成长性非常好， ...

Summary of Zijin Mining Group Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Zijin Mining Group - **Industry**: Mining - **Market Cap**: US$62.669 billion - **Stock Rating**: Overweight - **Price Target**: HK$22.90, representing a 33% upside from the current price of HK$17.28 as of March 21, 2025 Key Points Geopolitical and Operational Risks - Investors expressed concerns regarding geopolitical and operational risks in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) - Management clarified that Zijin's operations are located in southern Congo, approximately 2000 km away from conflict zones - Capital controls in DRC require mining companies to repatriate 60% of export earnings back to the country - The primary bottleneck in DRC operations is electricity supply, with Zijin investing in hydro and solar power plants to address this issue [1][2][3] Lithium Volume Guidance - Zijin has lowered its 2025 lithium production target to 40,000 tons from a previous estimate of 120,000 tons due to depressed pricing - The recent acquisition in Zangge allows Zijin to further explore lithium resources in Tibet while Zangge focuses on other minerals like potassium [2][3] Copper Production Target - Despite lowering lithium guidance, Zijin remains confident in achieving its 2025 copper target of 1.15 million tons - This target is higher than Ivanhoe's guidance of 520-550 thousand tons at Kamoa [5][8] Haiyu Project Commencement - The commencement of the Haiyu project, in partnership with Zhaojin, is anticipated - Zijin expects minimal contributions this year, with significant revenue streams projected to start in 2026-2027 [3][5] Long-term Outlook - Management remains optimistic about long-term lithium demand and plans to equip itself with a production capacity of 250,000 to 300,000 tons by 2028 [8] Financial Metrics - Revenue projections for the fiscal years ending December 2023, 2024, and 2025 are Rmb 288.553 billion, Rmb 347.678 billion, and Rmb 397.524 billion respectively - EBITDA is projected to grow from Rmb 40.958 billion in 2023 to Rmb 66.114 billion in 2025 [6][8] Risks - Upside risks include stronger copper prices driven by robust demand or supply disruptions in key copper-producing countries - Downside risks involve weaker copper prices due to economic downturns, project execution failures, and geopolitical risks affecting production [11] Additional Notes - The report includes important disclosures regarding potential sanctions and compliance with investment regulations [4][12] - Analysts involved in the report include Sara Chan, Chris Jiang, Hannah Yang, and Rachel L Zhang [5][16] This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call, highlighting the company's strategic direction, operational challenges, and financial outlook.

其中，净买入招商银行15.8亿、美团-W 3.77亿、紫金矿业3.51亿、中芯国际3.17亿、泡泡玛特2.87亿、快手-W 1.89亿、腾讯控股1.47亿。 净卖出小米集团-W 4.43亿、阿里巴巴-W 3.49亿、小鹏汽车-W 1.67亿、中国海洋石油1.36亿。 | | 沖股通 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 名称 | 涨跌幅 | 净买入额(亿) | 成交额 | 名称 | | 小米集团-W | 1.0% | -10.96 | 42.06亿 | 小米集团-W | | 腾讯控股 | 0.9% | 5.71 | 24.13亿 | 腾讯控股 | | 阿里巴巴-W | 1.4% | -0.06 | 19.38 Z | 阿里巴巴-W | | 中芯国际 | 1.7% | 0.62 | 17.70亿 | 快手-W | | 招商银行 | -5.5% | 15.80 | 17.40亿 | 中心国际 | | 快手-W | -1.7% | 1.37 | 15.48 Z | 泡泡玛特 | | 泡泡玛特 | 10.9% | -0.32 | 13.62亿 | 小鹏汽车-W | | 美 ...

铜和黄金前景乐观！虽然价格历史高位，但摩根大 通认为紫金矿业"不贵" 尽管铜价已接近历史高位，但摩根大通认为紫金矿业的股票仍然"不贵"，并给出了"超 配"（Overweight）评级。 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何 意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。 此外，紫金矿业还计划通过矿山扩张和潜在的并购活动来实现稳定的产量增长。报告指出，紫金矿业在 矿山扩张方面有着良好的记录，并且在成本控制方面表现出色，这将支持其未来几年8-10%的复合年增 长率。 "预计2025年黄金产量将达85吨(同比增长17%)，铜产量将达115万吨(同比增长8%)。主要矿 山扩建项目包括卡莫阿三期(2025年预计产量同比增长32%)和巨龙二期(预计于2025年底投 产)。" 根据摩根大通的估值模型，预计紫金矿业A股的目标价为25.00元人民币，隐含的1年期前瞻市盈率为13 倍，EV/EBITDA倍数为8.9倍。 H股的目标价为23.70港元，隐含的1年期前瞻市盈率为12倍，EV/EBITDA倍数为7.7倍。摩根大通认 为，尽管铜 ...

Summary of Zijin Mining Group - A Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Zijin Mining Group - **Industry**: Mining - **Primary Operations**: Exploration, mining, smelting, and distribution of gold, copper, zinc, and other metal minerals - **Shareholder**: MinxiXinghang State-Owned Investment & Operation holds a 23.11% stake as of 2022 - **Stock Listings**: Dual-listed in Hong Kong and Shanghai [14][15] Financial Results - **2024 Net Profit**: Rmb32,051 million, consistent with preliminary results of Rmb32 billion announced earlier [2] - **Dividend Payout**: Year-end dividend of Rmb0.28 per share, with a full-year payout ratio of 32% and a yield of 2% [2] - **Effective Tax Rate**: Increased to 24% in Q424 from less than 20% in the previous three years [3] - **Financial Costs**: Decreased significantly by approximately Rmb1.2 billion in 2024 [3] Production and Guidance - **Copper Output Guidance**: 2025 guidance set at 110,000 tons, down from previous levels of approximately 128,000 tons due to issues at Kowelzi and Hunchun mines [3][4] - **Production Strategy**: Overproduction from Timok and accelerated ramp-up of new mines to offset decreases in other areas [3] Market Reaction and Valuation - **Investor Reaction**: Expected to be benign as results and dividend payouts align with market expectations [5] - **Earnings Forecast**: 2025 earnings forecast increased by 10% to Rmb41 billion [5] - **Price Target**: Increased by 10% to Rmb24.00, maintaining a target multiple of 10x EV/EBITDA [5] - **Current Trading Metrics**: Trading at 8.4x 12-month forward EV/EBITDA, below the past twelve-year average of 9.8x [5] Key Financial Metrics - **Market Capitalization**: Rmb467 billion (approximately US$64.4 billion) [6] - **Revenue Growth**: Projected revenues for 2025 at Rmb346,273 million, reflecting a 14% increase from 2024 [11] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: Expected to rise from Rmb1.22 in 2024 to Rmb1.53 in 2025, an increase of 25.3% [11][12] Risks and Challenges - **Industry Risks**: Commodity price volatility, regulatory changes, and production disruptions [15] - **Company-Specific Risks**: Overseas political risks, commodity price fluctuations, and foreign exchange risks [16] Conclusion Zijin Mining Group's financial results for 2024 align with expectations, with a stable outlook for 2025 despite production challenges. The company maintains a solid dividend policy and has adjusted its earnings forecasts positively, reflecting confidence in its operational strategies and market conditions.

Zijin Mining (2899.HK) 23 Mar 2025 16:45:22 ET │ 15 pages Flash | | Price (21 Mar 25 16:10) | HK$17.28 | | --- | --- | | Target price | HK$24.40↑ | | from HK$21.90 | | | Expected share price | 41.2% | | return | | | Expected dividend yield | 2.4% | | Expected total return | 43.6% | | Market Cap | HK$459,260M | | | US$59,081M | Jack Shang, CFAAC +852-2501-2441 jack.shang@citi.com 2024 NI +52% YoY, Raise TP to HK$24.4/sh, Maintain Buy CITI'S TAKE Zijin reported 2024 net profit of Rmb32.1bn, up 52% YoY, in lin ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Zijin Mining [6] Core Views - In 2024, Zijin Mining achieved a revenue of 303.64 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.49%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 32.05 billion yuan, up 51.76% year-on-year, benefiting from high copper and gold prices [1][2] - The company expects stable growth in production capacity, with guidance for 2025 indicating copper production of 1.15 million tons and gold production of 85 tons, supported by ongoing expansion projects [3] - The company is positioned to benefit from macroeconomic trends and rising commodity prices, with projected net profits for 2025-2027 of 40.16 billion, 44.03 billion, and 47.23 billion yuan respectively, corresponding to P/E ratios of 11.9, 10.9, and 10.2 [3][5] Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company reported a revenue of 73.24 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.09%, while net profit was approximately 7.69 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 55.28% [1][2] - The average copper price in Q4 2024 was 75,000 yuan per ton, while gold averaged 2,662 USD per ounce, showing a 7.6% increase quarter-on-quarter [2] - The company’s total revenue for 2023 was 293.40 billion yuan, with a projected revenue of 328.64 billion yuan for 2025, indicating a growth rate of 8.9% [5][10] Production and Capacity - The company’s copper production reached 1.07 million tons in 2024, with significant contributions from new mining projects [2][3] - The production guidance for 2025 includes 1.15 million tons of copper and 85 tons of gold, indicating a focus on expanding core product lines [3] Market Position and Strategy - Zijin Mining is expanding its portfolio through strategic acquisitions, including a controlling stake in Zangge Mining, which enhances its lithium and potassium resource capabilities [3] - The company is leveraging its strong market position to capitalize on rising commodity prices and increasing demand, positioning itself for sustained growth [3]

Core Viewpoint - Zijin Mining's ESG rating remains stagnant at B level from 2022 to 2024, significantly lower than its peers in the industrial metals sector, raising concerns among investors about its governance and environmental practices [3][4][7]. Financial Performance - In 2024, Zijin Mining's revenue exceeded 300 billion yuan, marking a 3.49% year-on-year increase, while net profit reached over 30 billion yuan, up 51.76% year-on-year [4]. - The company's revenue growth rate in 2024 is the lowest since 2014 [4]. Environmental Concerns - The amount of hazardous waste generated per unit of revenue increased by over 70% in 2024, reaching 0.94 tons per million yuan of revenue [8]. - Energy consumption intensity reached 4.59 MWh per ten thousand yuan of industrial added value, the highest in five years, with a year-on-year increase of 3.27% [7][9]. - Total water consumption rose to 72.52 million tons, a 9.66% increase year-on-year, while fresh water usage intensity increased to 238.84 tons per million yuan of revenue, up 5.97% [7][9]. Social Responsibility Issues - Employee turnover rate increased to 8.49% in 2024, with significant losses among Chinese employees [10]. - The company reported 104 employees disciplined for corruption-related issues, reflecting a rise in internal governance problems [13]. Governance and Ethical Practices - The coverage rate of business ethics training for employees dropped to the lowest level in three years, at 75.25% [14]. - The total number of complaints and reports reached 236 in 2024, doubling from 104 in 2020, indicating a significant rise in reported misconduct [13][14]. Shareholder Returns - In 2024, Zijin Mining executed only one share buyback worth less than 3 million yuan, significantly lower than competitors [16]. - The cumulative dividend payout ratio since listing is 38.14%, which is lower than several peers in the industry [16][17].

Core Viewpoint - Zijin Mining is undergoing a transformation in its market value management, with the chairman taking primary responsibility and executive incentives linked to stock performance [1][10]. Group 1: Market Value Management - The chairman of Zijin Mining, Chen Jinghe, acknowledged that the company's market value management has not been satisfactory, despite strong growth potential [1]. - The company has introduced a market value management system, designating the chairman as the primary responsible person and the secretary as the direct responsible person [1]. - The company's current price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is around 14 times, significantly lower than the global mining average of over 20 times [1][10]. Group 2: Financial Performance - In 2024, Zijin Mining's copper production reached 106.8 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 6.07%, contributing approximately 28% to revenue [2]. - The company reported significant profit margins for gold products, with gross profit margins exceeding 46% and 68% for gold ingots and concentrates, respectively [2]. - The company's dividend payout ratio has decreased from 56%-79% (2015-2019) to 26%-49% (2020-2024), with a projected payout of 31.51% in 2024 [8][9]. Group 3: Resource Strategy - Zijin Mining aims to continuously increase its resource reserves through various means, including acquisitions, to sustain growth [3][7]. - The company is focusing on gold and silver as key areas for future acquisitions, with a notable interest in the silver market [4][5]. - The lithium resource reserves have reached 18 million tons of lithium carbonate equivalent, with significant production capacity expected to come online by 2025 [6]. Group 4: Market Comparisons - Compared to peers like Southern Copper and Freeport-McMoRan, Zijin Mining's market valuation is lower, with a PE ratio of less than 15 times compared to their higher valuations [10][11]. - Despite being perceived as a cyclical industry, Zijin Mining is positioned as a high-growth company, with projected production increases of 50% by 2028 [11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expectation that the stock will outperform the market index by more than 15% over the next six months [4][7]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 303.64 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 3.49%. The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 32.05 billion yuan, up 51.76% year-on-year [4]. - The company's main metal production saw significant increases, with copper production at 1.07 million tons and gold production at 73 tons, reflecting growth rates of 6% and 8% respectively [4]. - The company has made substantial progress in resource exploration, with significant discoveries in various regions, enhancing its resource reserves and production capacity [4]. - The report anticipates continued growth in copper and gold prices, driven by supply disruptions and increasing demand from the renewable energy sector, which supports the company's revenue growth outlook [4]. Financial Summary - For 2024, the company reported a gross margin of 20.37%, an increase of 4.56 percentage points year-on-year, and a net margin of 12.97%, up 3.92 percentage points year-on-year [4]. - The forecast for 2025 and 2026 projects earnings per share of 1.44 yuan and 1.75 yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 12.57 and 10.34 [5].