Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the investment banking and brokerage industry [7] Core Insights - The report highlights a recent merger announcement by China International Capital Corporation (CICC) to absorb Dongxing Securities and Xinda Securities through a share swap, indicating a trend towards consolidation among leading brokerages [2][4] - In the insurance sector, the third-quarter reports confirm a shift towards equity investments and improved cost structures, suggesting a higher certainty of ROE improvement and potential for accelerated valuation recovery [2][4] - The overall cost-effectiveness of investment in the sector is gradually increasing, with ongoing revaluation of the sector [4] Summary by Sections Brokerage Sector - CICC's merger with Dongxing and Xinda Securities reflects a long-term trend of concentration among top firms [4] - The brokerage sector is expected to see a gradual recovery in profitability as commission rates stabilize [41] Insurance Sector - The insurance industry reported significant growth in value, premiums, and profits, with a cumulative premium income of CNY 52,146 billion in September 2025, marking an 8.76% year-on-year increase [23][24] - The report emphasizes the stability of dividends and profit growth in companies like Jiangsu Jinzu and China Ping An, which are recommended for investment [4] Market Performance - The non-bank financial index decreased by 4.4% this week, with a year-to-date increase of 2.8%, indicating a mixed performance relative to the broader market [5][19] - The average daily trading volume in the market has decreased to CNY 18,650.36 billion, down 8.75% from the previous period [41] Financing Activities - In October 2025, equity financing increased to CNY 501.42 billion, a 20.4% rise, while bond financing decreased to CNY 6.56 trillion, a 19.2% drop [53] - The report notes a decline in the issuance of collective asset management products, with a new issuance of 4.183 billion units in October, down 37.3% [56]

Core Insights - The merger and acquisition (M&A) market in China is experiencing a significant increase, with 151 companies disclosing M&A activities as of November 23, surpassing last year's figures, driven by strategic collaboration and industry chain enhancement [1] - The trend indicates that M&A activities will continue to be active, particularly led by leading enterprises and industry chain leaders, focusing on horizontal collaboration and vertical extension [1][4] - State-owned enterprises (SOEs) are expected to play a crucial role in industry consolidation, benefiting from favorable policies [1][4] Industry Trends - M&A activities are increasingly oriented towards industry chain reinforcement and supplementation, with companies acquiring key technologies and capacities to enhance competitiveness and optimize industry structure [1][2] - The dual driving force of innovation and M&A integration is evident, as mature companies with stable fundamentals are entering a conducive environment for M&A [1][2] - The securities industry is witnessing a wave of consolidation, exemplified by the merger plans of China International Capital Corporation (CICC) with Dongxing Securities and Xinda Securities [2] Financial Support and Policy Environment - The establishment of M&A funds by leading enterprises and state-owned entities is crucial for securing key technologies and enhancing industry chain resilience [2][3] - Recent policies from various regions encourage the formation of M&A funds, with Beijing and Tianjin outlining support for high-quality development through M&A [3] - The Shanghai government has proposed a 50 billion yuan fund to support industrial transformation and upgrade, indicating strong governmental backing for M&A activities [3] Future Outlook - The M&A market is expected to benefit from targeted policy support, with qualified enterprises likely to receive more favorable treatment, further boosting M&A activity [4] - Cross-border M&A is anticipated to be a vital strategy for Chinese companies to overcome growth bottlenecks and connect with global resources [4] - Recommendations for enhancing cross-border M&A capabilities include building professional teams, selecting specialized intermediaries, and strengthening post-merger integration processes [5]

证券研究报告·行业跟踪周报·非银金融 非银金融行业跟踪周报 证券行业并购稳步推进；保险业总资产突破 40 万亿 增持（维持） 相关研究 [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 ◼ 风险提示：1）宏观经济不及预期；2）政策趋紧抑制行业创新；3）市场 竞争加剧风险。 2025 年 11 月 23 日 证券分析师 孙婷 执业证书：S0600524120001 sunt@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 罗宇康 执业证书：S0600525090002 luoyk@dwzq.com.cn 行业走势 -14% -10% -6% -2% 2% 6% 10% 14% 18% 22% 2024/11/25 2025/3/25 2025/7/23 2025/11/20 非银金融 沪深300 《中金公司拟换股合并东兴证券、信 达证券，资产规模将破万亿元》 2025-11-20 《金融科技 2026 年投资策略-- 短期 看市场活跃的持续性，中期关注金融 IT》 2025-11-17 东吴证券研究所 1 / 15 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 ◼ 非银行金融子行业近期表现：最近 5 个交易日（2025 ...

Domestic Macro Policy - The Chinese government is focusing on enhancing the adaptability of consumer goods supply and demand to further promote consumption, with a strategic emphasis on the "Two Heavy" construction during the 14th Five-Year Plan period[2] - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) has recommended 105 infrastructure REITs projects, with a total fund issuance of 207 billion yuan, expected to drive over 1 trillion yuan in new project investments[12] - The Ministry of Finance emphasizes improving the effectiveness of fiscal policy and macroeconomic regulation to better promote high-quality development during the 14th Five-Year Plan period[14] Infrastructure and Industry Policy - By 2030, a multi-level and efficient renewable energy consumption and regulation system is expected to be established, with new electricity demand primarily met by new renewable energy generation[3] - As of October 29, 500 billion yuan in new policy financial tools have been fully deployed, supporting key areas of private investment projects[12] Real Estate Policy - Policies are being implemented to accelerate the construction of quality housing and promote urban renewal actions across various cities, including Shanghai and Chengdu[16] Financial Regulation - China International Capital Corporation (CICC) announced a merger with Dongxing Securities and Xinda Securities through a share swap, aiming to enhance its capabilities in the investment banking sector[18] Overseas Macro Policy - The probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December has increased to approximately 70%, with significant discussions among officials regarding the need for further rate adjustments[23] - The U.S. government has ended its shutdown, which had significant economic implications, with losses estimated at 1.5 trillion yuan[26] Risk Warning - There is a persistent divergence in domestic and foreign monetary policies, with domestic policy execution potentially falling short of expectations[29]

Core Viewpoint - The announcement of China International Capital Corporation (CICC) to absorb and merge with China Securities and Dongxing Securities marks a significant event in the A-share brokerage sector, indicating a strategic acceleration towards building a first-class investment bank within the state-owned capital system [2][4][8]. Group 1: Merger Details - CICC plans to conduct a share swap to absorb China Securities and Dongxing Securities, which will result in a combined total asset scale exceeding 1 trillion yuan and a net asset scale of nearly 175 billion yuan, making it the largest brokerage under the "Hui Jin" system [4][5]. - This merger is unprecedented in the brokerage industry, as it combines three firms simultaneously, exceeding market expectations that primarily focused on the merger of individual pairs [4][8]. Group 2: Market Reaction - Following the announcement, the A-share brokerage sector experienced a surge in trading volume, although it faced a decline in stock prices shortly after, reflecting cautious market sentiment [3][5]. - The overall market saw significant declines, with the Shanghai Composite Index dropping 2.45% and the ChiNext Index falling 4.02% on November 21, indicating a broader market pullback affecting the brokerage sector [3]. Group 3: Industry Implications - The merger is seen as a catalyst for further consolidation in the brokerage industry, with expectations that state-owned brokerages will increasingly pursue mergers to enhance competitiveness [6][9]. - Analysts believe that this merger could lead to a more concentrated market structure, potentially pushing smaller brokerages towards mergers or acquisitions as a means of survival and growth [9][10]. - The integration of CICC, China Securities, and Dongxing Securities is expected to enhance CICC's competitive position, potentially elevating its industry ranking from 9th or 10th to 4th or 6th [9][10]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The ongoing trend of mergers and acquisitions in the brokerage sector is anticipated to continue, driven by regulatory support for leading firms to strengthen through consolidation [6][7]. - The long-term outlook remains positive, with expectations that the merger will catalyze a new wave of industry restructuring, enhancing the overall competitive landscape and potentially leading to improved return on equity (ROE) for leading firms [10].

Key Points - The Chinese government is focused on enhancing foreign trade quality and efficiency, aiming to streamline the construction of a unified national market and support high-quality manufacturing development [1][2] - The Dutch government has suspended an administrative order against ASML, which is seen as a step towards resolving global semiconductor supply chain issues, although further actions are needed [2] - The fourth high-level financial dialogue between China and Germany welcomed qualified companies from Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges to issue Global Depositary Receipts (GDR) in Frankfurt [3] - The Chinese Ministry of Finance announced the successful issuance of €4 billion in sovereign bonds, with a focus on enhancing financial stability [4] - In October, China's total electricity consumption reached 857.2 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 10.4%, with significant growth in the service sector and residential electricity use [5] - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce reported that from January to October, 53,782 new foreign-invested enterprises were established, marking a 14.7% increase year-on-year, although actual foreign investment decreased by 10.3% [6][7]

Core Viewpoint - The US dollar has regained strength, surpassing the 100 mark and recovering the 200-day moving average for the first time since early March, supported by various factors including stronger-than-expected non-farm payroll data and hawkish FOMC meeting minutes [1][28]. Group 1: US Dollar Strength - The US government ending the shutdown and the release of September non-farm payroll data exceeding market expectations have weakened the logic for the Federal Reserve to cut rates due to deteriorating employment data [1][25]. - The hawkish tone of the October FOMC meeting minutes has reinforced market expectations that the Fed will not easily cut rates again in December [1][28]. - The weakness of the Japanese yen and British pound has also provided support to the US dollar index [1]. Group 2: Performance of Non-USD Currencies - Non-USD currencies have broadly declined against the strengthening dollar, with the Swiss franc dropping 1.77%, leading the G10 currencies [2]. - The Norwegian krone, Australian dollar, and New Zealand dollar also saw significant declines of 1.59%, 1.27%, and 1.23%, respectively, amid a drop in market risk appetite [2]. - The euro and British pound experienced declines of 0.93% and 0.55%, respectively, influenced by weaker economic data [2][29]. Group 3: Market Focus and Predictions - This week, the market will focus on a series of economic data from the US, particularly PPI inflation and weekly unemployment claims, as well as China's October industrial profits [3][22]. - The market's risk appetite may continue to be volatile, especially after a significant drop in US stocks last week, which could pose a risk to the dollar's further rise [3][36]. - The predicted range for USD/CNY is between 7.09 and 7.14, with expectations for the RMB to maintain a moderately strong trend overall [3][4]. Group 4: RMB Exchange Rate Stability - The RMB showed resilience against the dollar's rise, with only a slight depreciation, while appreciating against a basket of currencies [4][11]. - The CFETS RMB exchange rate index rose by 0.4%, indicating a stable performance despite external pressures from a strong dollar [4][11]. - The RMB's demand is expected to remain balanced, supported by expectations of a moderate appreciation and seasonal factors as the year-end approaches [4][22]. Group 5: UK Economic Outlook - Recent UK economic data has confirmed a weak outlook, raising market expectations for a Bank of England rate cut, with the probability of a cut in December now around 90% [29][33]. - The UK unemployment rate rose to 5%, and retail sales data showed a significant decline, further supporting the case for a rate cut [29][33]. - The upcoming fiscal budget report may also impact the pound, with expectations of increased government borrowing potentially leading to bond market pressures [35].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the non-banking financial sector, with specific recommendations for leading brokerage firms and undervalued insurance companies [4][19][20]. Core Insights - The integration of brokerages under the Huijin system is expected to drive a new wave of consolidation in the securities industry, enhancing the competitive landscape and potentially increasing the market share of major players like China International Capital Corporation (CICC) [4][31]. - The report highlights the significant growth in the insurance asset management sector, with a year-on-year increase of 36% in stock allocation, indicating a robust investment environment [4][19]. - The international expansion of Chinese brokerages, particularly in Southeast Asia, is a key focus, with acquisitions of local firms to mitigate operational challenges in foreign markets [4][20]. Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4,453.61, reflecting a decline of 3.77% over the week, while the non-banking index fell by 4.44% [7]. - The brokerage sector saw a decline of 4.89%, with notable performances from specific firms such as首创证券 and 东兴证券, which showed positive growth [9][19]. - The insurance sector also experienced a downturn, with major companies like 中国人寿 and 中国平安 reporting declines in their stock prices [9][15]. Non-Banking Industry Data - As of the end of 2024, the total assets managed by 34 insurance asset management companies reached 33.3 trillion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 10.6% [4][19]. - The report notes that the average management scale per institution in the insurance sector is 4.364 billion yuan, with a significant increase in revenue generation [4][19]. - The average daily trading volume in the stock market for November 2025 was reported at 19,739.55 billion yuan, indicating a slight decrease from previous months [19][44]. Key Company Announcements - CICC is planning a major asset restructuring involving the merger with 东兴证券 and 信达证券, which is expected to enhance its market position significantly [31]. - 阳光保险 announced a 20 billion yuan investment to establish a pilot private equity fund, indicating a strategic move towards diversifying its investment portfolio [32]. - 国盛证券 received approval for its stock options market-making business, reflecting ongoing developments in the brokerage sector [37].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the non-bank financial industry, indicating an "Overweight" rating for the sector [4]. Core Insights - The integration of brokerages under the Huijin system has commenced, with China International Capital Corporation (CICC) planning to merge with Dongxing Securities and Xinda Securities, potentially enhancing CICC's market position and asset base significantly [4]. - The insurance asset management sector has seen a year-on-year increase of 36% in stock allocation, with total managed funds reaching CNY 33.3 trillion, reflecting a robust growth trajectory [4]. - The report highlights three investment themes for brokerages: benefiting from improved competitive dynamics, focusing on firms with strong earnings elasticity, and targeting companies with strong international business capabilities [4]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4,453.61, down 3.77% for the week, while the non-bank index fell 4.44% [7]. - The brokerage sector index decreased by 4.89%, underperforming the broader market [7]. Non-Bank Industry Data - As of the end of 2024, the total assets managed by 34 insurance asset management companies increased by 10.6% year-on-year to CNY 33.3 trillion, with a notable rise in stock allocations [4]. - The average daily trading volume in the stock market for November 2025 was CNY 19,739.55 billion, reflecting a slight decrease from the previous month [20]. Key Announcements - CICC is undergoing a significant asset restructuring, which is expected to enhance its competitive position in the market [34]. - The China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission has announced the inclusion of electronic savings bonds in personal pension products, effective June 2026, which may influence investment strategies in the insurance sector [21].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the establishment of a digital research platform by CICC, aimed at providing efficient, professional, and accurate research services by integrating insights from over 30 specialized teams and covering more than 1800 stocks globally [1]. Group 1: Research Services - CICC's digital research platform, "CICC Insight," offers a one-stop service that includes research reports, conference activities, fundamental databases, and research frameworks [1]. - The platform is designed to deliver daily updates on research focuses and timely articles through CICC Morning Report [4]. - It features live broadcasts where senior analysts interpret market hotspots, enhancing real-time engagement with market trends [4]. Group 2: Data and Frameworks - The platform includes over 160 industry research frameworks and 40 premium databases, providing comprehensive industry data [10]. - CICC Insight also offers a large model for data analysis, which includes AI search capabilities for efficient information retrieval [10]. Group 3: User Engagement - Users can unlock upgraded features by verifying their email, enhancing their experience on the platform [8]. - The platform promotes interactive content, including high-quality videos and visual presentations to facilitate understanding [7].