Report Overview - Report Name: Nanhua Futures Tin Risk Management Daily Report - Date: August 18, 2025 - Research Team: Nanhua Non-ferrous Metals Research Team [1] Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Tin prices declined slightly on Thursday, fluctuating with the non-ferrous metals sector. Recently, macro factors have had limited impact. On the supply side, the repeated postponement of the full resumption of production in Myanmar's tin mines has significantly supported tin prices and may have a continuous impact. According to Alphamin's financial report, the impact of the production cut at the Bisie tin mine exceeded expectations, driving up short-term tin prices. There has been no significant change in demand [3]. Summary by Category Price and Volatility - The latest closing price of tin is 266,820 yuan/ton, with a monthly price range forecast of 245,000 - 263,000 yuan/ton. The current volatility is 14.36%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility is 26.1% [2]. Risk Management Recommendations - **Inventory Management**: For high finished product inventory and concerns about price drops, sell 75% of the Shanghai Tin main futures contract at around 275,000 yuan/ton and sell 25% of the SN2510C275000 call option when the volatility is appropriate [2]. - **Raw Material Management**: For low raw material inventory and concerns about price increases, buy 50% of the Shanghai Tin main futures contract at around 230,000 yuan/ton and sell 25% of the SN2510P245000 put option when the volatility is appropriate [2]. Market Factors - **Likely Positive Factors**: Sino-US tariff policy easing, the semiconductor sector remaining in the expansion cycle, and the resumption of production in Myanmar falling short of expectations [7]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: Repeated tariff policies, the inflow of Myanmar's tin mines into China, and the slowdown of the semiconductor sector's expansion speed, gradually moving from the expansion cycle to the contraction cycle [5]. Futures and Spot Data - **Futures Data**: The latest prices of Shanghai Tin main, continuous first, and continuous third contracts are 266,820 yuan/ton, 266,820 yuan/ton, and 267,360 yuan/ton respectively, with no daily change. The LME tin 3M price is 33,610 US dollars/ton, up 175 US dollars or 0.52% daily. The Shanghai-London ratio is 8.06, up 0.04 or 0.5% [6]. - **Spot Data**: The latest prices of Shanghai Nonferrous tin ingots, 1 tin premium, 40% tin concentrate, 60% tin concentrate, solder bars (60A and 63A), and lead-free solder have weekly declines ranging from -0.58% to -0.78% [13]. Import and Processing Data - The latest tin import profit and loss is -16,161.2 yuan/ton, down 2.1% daily. The processing fees for 40% and 60% tin ore remain unchanged [15]. Inventory Data - The latest total warehouse receipt quantity of tin in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 7,426 tons, up 0.05% daily. The LME tin inventory is 1,830 tons, up 2.81% daily [17].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - Copper prices rose slightly during the week and then fell, which was basically in line with expectations. Macroeconomic conditions remained stable, and the US retail sales data for July met expectations. The El Teniente copper mine in Chile restarted after a week of repairs, having a limited impact on copper prices. In the coming week, copper prices are likely to continue to fluctuate and may be slightly stronger. The lower support level for copper prices has been raised from 77,000 yuan per ton to 78,000 yuan per ton. The release of the Fed's meeting minutes and Powell's speech at the global central bank annual meeting are expected to have a limited impact on copper prices [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper Price Volatility and Risk Management - The latest copper price is 79,060 yuan, with a monthly price range forecast of 73,000 - 80,000 yuan. The current volatility is 11.64%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility is 22.6% [2] - For inventory management with high finished - product inventory and concerns about price drops, it is recommended to sell 75% of the Shanghai copper main futures contract at around 82,000 yuan and sell 25% of the CU2510C82000 call option when volatility is relatively stable. For raw material management with low raw material inventory and concerns about price increases, it is recommended to buy 75% of the Shanghai copper main futures contract at around 77,000 yuan [2] Factors Affecting Copper Prices Bullish Factors - The US reaches an agreement on tariff policies with other countries - Increased expectations of interest rate cuts lead to a decline in the US dollar index, boosting the valuation of non - ferrous metals - The lower support level for copper prices is raised [4][5] Bearish Factors - Tariff policies are inconsistent - Global demand decreases due to tariff policies - The adjustment of the US copper tariff policy causes an extremely high virtual inventory in COMEX [5][7] Copper Futures and Spot Market Data Futures Data - The latest price of the Shanghai copper main contract is 79,060 yuan/ton, with no daily change; the Shanghai copper continuous - one contract is 79,060 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan (0.14%); the Shanghai copper continuous - three contract is 79,040 yuan/ton, with no daily change; the LME copper 3M is 9,760 US dollars/ton, down 17 US dollars (-0.17%); the Shanghai - London ratio is 8.2, up 0.06 (0.74%) [6] Spot Data - The latest price of Shanghai Non - Ferrous 1 copper is 79,180 yuan/ton, down 255 yuan (-0.32%); Shanghai Wumaotrade is 79,170 yuan/ton, down 295 yuan (-0.37%); Guangdong Southern Reserve is 79,010 yuan/ton, down 380 yuan (-0.48%); Yangtze Non - Ferrous is 79,300 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan (-0.38%) [13] Copper Scrap Price Difference - The current tax - included scrap price difference is 1,098.51 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan (-2.66%); the reasonable tax - included scrap price difference is 1,492.9 yuan/ton, down 0.3 yuan (-0.02%); the tax - included price advantage is - 394.39 yuan/ton, down 29.7 yuan (8.14%) [17] Copper Warehouse Receipt and Inventory Data Warehouse Receipts - The total Shanghai copper warehouse receipts are 24,560 tons, up 126 tons (0.52%); the total international copper warehouse receipts are 7,422 tons, with no change [21] Inventory - The total LME copper inventory is 155,800 tons, down 50 tons (-0.03%); the total COMEX copper inventory is 267,195 tons, up 3,055 tons (1.16%) [24][25] Copper Import Profit and Processing Data - The copper import profit is 144.92 yuan/ton, up 100.37 yuan (225.3%); the copper concentrate TC is - 37.67 US dollars/ton, up 0.33 US dollars (-0.87%) [26]

今年国内清明节假期前夕，美国宣布对全球主要贸易伙伴加征"对等关税"，这一举措令全球贸易陷入紧 张，与之紧密关联的海运业也面临巨大压力。在贸易节奏被打乱的背景下，运价波动风险急剧上升。南 华期货航运研究业务负责人傅小燕捕捉到这一市场变化，第一时间响应了客户的避险需求。 "对等关税"冲击海运贸易节奏 国内某知名国际货代企业为迎接二季度海运旺季，今年3月与船公司签订了欧线舱位采购合同，锁定100 个舱位（TEU），单价1800美元。然而，美国宣布征收"对等关税"，令旺季预期转淡，欧线运价承压下 行。考虑到取消合同可能损害商业信誉与合作关系，该企业计划利用集运指数（欧线）期货进行套保， 以对冲现货订舱风险。 编者按：为深入展现期货市场服务实体经济的创新实践，上期所发起2025年"期货市场服务实体经济创 新案例"征集活动，聚焦案例的主题性、创新性、实践价值及可推广性。即日起，本报将陆续刊登具有 代表性的优秀案例，分享期货工具在助力产业升级、风险管理及乡村振兴中的成功经验。 "五一"假期结束后，美国"对等关税"暂缓实施的消息出炉，下游客户订舱积极性显著提升，期现基差也 呈现先回落后回升态势。5月 12日，中美发布联合声明 ...

Core Viewpoint - The establishment of a Commodity Financial Services Innovation Center in Hangzhou is a strategic response to the evolving global economic landscape and aims to enhance the city's role as a hub for commodity resource allocation [2][4][16]. Group 1: Event Overview - The Commodity Financial Services Innovation Center construction seminar was held in Yuhuangshan South Fund Town, attracting attention from various sectors including government, enterprises, academia, and research institutions [2]. - The seminar served as a platform for high-level exchanges and in-depth discussions on the construction of the center amidst increasing volatility in the commodity market [2]. Group 2: Government and Local Leadership Support - Zhejiang Province's Commerce Department expressed gratitude to industry elites for their contributions to building a commodity resource allocation hub in Zhejiang [4]. - Hangzhou's government emphasized its commitment to developing a nationally influential commodity ecosystem and supporting the establishment of the innovation center [6]. Group 3: Development Plans and Initiatives - The Hangzhou Commerce Bureau introduced a three-year action plan for high-quality development in commodity trade, which aims to strengthen Hangzhou's core position in both national and global markets [8]. - The local government plans to focus on talent cultivation, risk management, and service innovation to promote the integration of commodity trade and financial support [12][14]. Group 4: Industry Perspectives - Experts highlighted the necessity of government attention, corporate efforts, and a focus on talent development to realize the potential of the commodity financial services sector [18]. - The establishment of the innovation center is seen as a crucial step for Zhejiang to enhance its influence and competitiveness in the commodity sector [19].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply side of asphalt remains stable, while the demand side is affected by rainfall and funds shortage, failing to effectively release, resulting in a weaker short - term peak season. The overall fundamentals have weakened month - on - month. In the medium and long term, the demand will improve as the construction season approaches in autumn and the funds situation eases [2]. - The geopolitical premium of crude oil has declined due to the easing of the Russia - Ukraine conflict, alleviating the tight supply expectation of asphalt cost [2]. - The unilateral price of asphalt has weakly corrected, and the month - spread, basis, and crack spread have all weakened to some extent [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Asphalt Price and Volatility - The price range forecast for the asphalt main contract in the month is 3400 - 3750, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 22.30% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 8.95% [1]. - On August 15, 2025, the Shandong spot price was 3620 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan from the previous day and 140 yuan from the previous week; the Yangtze River Delta spot price was 3730 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day and down 50 yuan from the previous week; the North China spot price was 3680 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan from the previous day and up 20 yuan from the previous week; the South China spot price was 3520 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan from the previous day and 60 yuan from the previous week [1][5][8]. 3.2 Asphalt Risk Management Strategy - For inventory management, when the finished - product inventory is high and there are concerns about price drops, enterprises with long spot positions can short the bu2509 asphalt futures at a 25% hedging ratio in the range of 3650 - 3750 to lock in profits and make up for production costs [1]. - For procurement management, when the regular procurement inventory is low and procurement is based on orders, enterprises with short spot positions can buy the bu2509 asphalt futures at a 50% hedging ratio in the range of 3300 - 3400 to lock in procurement costs in advance [1]. 3.3 Core Contradictions - The supply of asphalt is stable, but demand is affected by rainfall and funds shortage. The factory - warehouse pressure is small, but the social - warehouse destocking is slow, and speculative demand has weakened. The basis in Shandong and East China has weakened, and the crack spread remains high [2]. 3.4利多解读 - The low pressure on asphalt factory warehouses provides a basis for manufacturers to support prices [3]. - The demand is in the seasonal peak season [7]. - The low - level start - up and the expectation of catch - up construction in the South [7]. - The atmosphere of anti - involution has created a strong expectation of capacity reduction [7]. 3.5利空解读 - The recent increase in the arrival of Venezuelan Merey crude oil [7]. - The short - term plum - rain season in the South has dragged down demand [7]. - The slowdown of social - warehouse destocking and the weakening of the basis [7]. - The consumption tax reform in Shandong may drive up the start - up rate [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the Nanhua Composite Index rose 13.09 points, a 0.52% increase. The most influential varieties were palm oil and soda ash. Palm oil's variety index had a 5.11% change and a 0.23% contribution, while soda ash's variety index had a 4.73% change and a 0.15% contribution [1][2]. - The Nanhua Industrial Products Index rose 13.09 points, a 0.36% increase. The most influential varieties were soda ash and caustic soda, with contribution degrees of 0.2% and 0.13% respectively [1][2]. - The Nanhua Metal Index rose 28.41 points, a 0.44% increase. The most influential variety was lithium carbonate, with a contribution of 0.45% [1][2]. - The Nanhua Energy and Chemical Index rose 9.95 points, a 0.59% increase. The most influential variety was soda ash, with a contribution of 0.29% [2]. - The Nanhua Agricultural Products Index rose 13.75 points, a 1.25% increase. The most influential variety was palm oil, with a contribution of 0.68% [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Nanhua Commodity Index Weekly Data | Index Name | This Week's Closing | Last Week's Closing | Change in Points | Change Rate | This Week's Maximum | This Week's Minimum | Amplitude | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Composite Index NHCI | 2536.21 | 2523.12 | 13.09 | 0.52% | 2556.20 | 2523.12 | 33.08 | | Precious Metals Index NHPMI | 1253.84 | 1269.49 | -15.65 | -1.23% | 1269.49 | 1253.13 | 16.36 | | Industrial Products Index NHII | 3658.04 | 3644.95 | 13.09 | 0.36% | 3713.92 | 3644.95 | 68.97 | | Metal Index NHMI | 6466.21 | 6437.79 | 28.41 | 0.44% | 6553.85 | 6437.79 | 116.06 | | Energy and Chemical Index NHECI | 1687.68 | 1677.73 | 9.95 | 0.59% | 1709.71 | 1677.73 | 31.98 | | Non - ferrous Metals Index NHNFI | 1714.49 | 1697.73 | 16.76 | 0.99% | 1724.76 | 1697.73 | 27.03 | | Black Index NHFI | 2589.38 | 2596.44 | -7.06 | -0.27% | 2663.73 | 2582.71 | 81.02 | | Agricultural Products Index NHAl | 1112.30 | 1098.55 | 13.75 | 1.25% | 1122.89 | 1098.55 | 24.33 | | Nanhua Comprehensive Consumption NHCIMi | 1193.84 | 1186.42 | 7.42 | 0.63% | 1207.13 | 1186.42 | 20.71 | | Energy Index NHEI | 1064.36 | 1066.74 | -2.38 | -0.22% | 1084.31 | 1058.07 | 26.23 | | Petrochemical Ammonia NHPCI | 948.97 | 947.25 | 1.72 | 0.18% | 956.95 | 945.19 | 11.76 | | Coal - based Chemical Engineering Consumption NHCCI | 1033.41 | 1042.65 | -9.24 | -0.89% | 1051.86 | 1033.41 | 18.45 | | Black Raw Materials Index NHFMI | 1072.04 | 1071.66 | 0.37 | 0.03% | 1109.06 | 1067.01 | 42.05 | | Building Materials Index NHBMI | 761.44 | 764.49 | -3.05 | -0.40% | 777.95 | 761.44 | 16.52 | | Oilseeds and Oils Index NHOOl | 1284.28 | 1256.32 | 27.97 | 2.23% | 1302.40 | 1256.32 | 46.08 | | Economic Crops Index NHAECI | 911.96 | 896.92 | 15.04 | 1.68% | 911.96 | 896.92 | 15.04 | [3] 3.2 Nanhua Variety Index Strength - Weakness Arbitrage Data The report provides the current value, previous value, change, and ranking of various variety index ratios, such as the ratio of the precious metals index to the composite index, the ratio of the industrial products index to the composite index, etc. [6] 3.3 Contribution Degree of Each Variety's Daily Change Rate to the Index Change Rate The report shows the average position - holding volume this week, the环比 increase rate, the position - holding volume ratio, and the contribution degree of each futures variety to the index change rate, including soybean meal, rebar, fuel oil, etc. [8] 3.4 Weekly Data of Nanhua's Various Sector Indexes - **Nanhua Industrial Products Index**: Closed at 3658.04 this week, up 0.36%. The most influential varieties were soda ash, caustic soda, natural rubber, etc. [10] - **Nanhua Metal Index**: Closed at 6466.21 this week, up 0.44%. The most influential varieties were lithium carbonate, copper, and iron ore [10]. - **Nanhua Energy and Chemical Index**: Closed at 1687.68 this week, up 0.59%. The most influential varieties were soda ash, caustic soda, and natural rubber [10]. - **Nanhua Agricultural Products Index**: Closed at 1112.30 this week, up 1.25%. The most influential varieties were palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil [10]. - **Nanhua Black Index**: Closed at 2589.38 this week, down 0.27%. The most influential varieties were rebar, coke, and stainless steel [11]. - **Nanhua Non - ferrous Metals Index**: Closed at 1714.49 this week, up 0.99%. The most influential varieties were lithium carbonate, copper, and aluminum [13].

Report Overview - Report Date: August 15, 2025 [1] - Report Title: Stock Index Daily Report - Stock Index Futures Daily Report [1] - Analyst: Wang Ying (Z0016367) [1] - Investment Advisory License: China Securities Regulatory Commission Permit [2011] No. 1290 [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided 2. Core View - The stock market performed more optimistically than expected today, driven by fundamental confidence and high trading enthusiasm. Concept stocks boosted by favorable information led the market, with non - bank finance and technology - related industries leading the gains. Small - cap stocks showed strong performance due to positive sentiment and high - spirited funds. Looking ahead, the breakthrough of the pressure line should be monitored. Despite the optimistic sentiment today, it is not recommended to chase the market at present, and it is advisable to hold positions and observe. An insurance strategy of holding spot and buying put options is recommended [4] 3. Summary by Directory Market Review - The stock index rose with shrinking volume today, and the market index attempted to reach new highs again. The trading volume of the two markets dropped significantly by 345.97 billion yuan. Among stock index futures, IF and IH rose with shrinking volume, while IC and IM rose with expanding volume [2] Important Information - An important article by General Secretary Xi Jinping, "Promoting the Healthy and High - Quality Development of the Private Economy," was published in Qiushi Journal. China's year - on - year growth rate of social retail sales in July slowed to 3.7%, and the year - on - year total retail sales of automobiles declined. From January to July, China's real estate development investment decreased by 12% year - on - year, and the sales area of newly built commercial housing decreased by 4% year - on - year. In July, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 5.7% year - on - year, and the production of crude steel and raw coal declined. From January to July, China's national fixed - asset investment increased by 1.6%, while private investment declined. In July, the prices of second - hand houses in first - tier cities showed wider month - on - month and year - on - year declines, and the year - on - year declines in housing prices in all tiers narrowed. Relevant national departments are researching and formulating policies and measures for the development of the marine industry and actively exploring ways to encourage central enterprises and social capital to participate in the development of the marine economy [3] Strategy Recommendation - Insurance Strategy: Hold spot and buy put options [4] Stock Index Futures Market Observation | | IF | IH | IC | IM | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Main Contract Intraday Change (%) | 0.80 | 0.34 | 2.11 | 2.16 | | Trading Volume (10,000 lots) | 14.0755 | 7.7296 | 12.2047 | 25.7577 | | Trading Volume MoM (10,000 lots) | - 1.2994 | - 0.9794 | 0.9901 | - 0.8154 | | Open Interest (10,000 lots) | 26.8828 | 10.4541 | 22.8854 | 38.1845 | | Open Interest MoM (10,000 lots) | - 0.3048 | - 0.0183 | 1.3297 | 1.6552 | [4] Spot Market Observation | Name | Value | | --- | --- | | Shanghai Composite Index Change (%) | 0.83 | | Shenzhen Component Index Change (%) | 1.60 | | Ratio of Rising to Falling Stocks | 6.85 | | Trading Volume of the Two Markets (billion yuan) | 22446.12 | | Trading Volume MoM (billion yuan) | - 345.97 | [5]

Report Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - This week, Zhengzhou cotton rebounded close to the previous high after the adjustment in the USDA report. There is an optimistic outlook for the new - year cotton production. As the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season approaches, the downstream market shows marginal improvement, but the current recovery is limited. The USDA's August report tightened the global new - year cotton supply - demand expectations. The low inventory of old cotton supports near - month contracts, and the short - term cotton price center may rise with the marginal improvement in the downstream. Attention should be paid to downstream stocking [5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Domestic Market Supply - As of August 7, the national new cotton sales rate was 97.7%, 6.7 percentage points higher year - on - year and 8.4 percentage points higher than the average of the past four years [2]. Import - In June, China's cotton import volume was 30,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons month - on - month and 130,000 tons year - on - year; the cotton yarn import volume was 110,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons month - on - month and the same year - on - year; the cotton cloth import volume was 4,289.55 tons, a decrease of 3.44% month - on - month and 24.37% year - on - year [2]. Demand - In July, the domestic textile and clothing retail sales were 96.1 billion yuan, a decrease of 24.63% month - on - month and an increase of 1.80% year - on - year; the textile and clothing export volume was 26.766 billion US dollars, a decrease of 2.01% month - on - month and a decrease of 0.06% year - on - year [2]. Inventory - As of the end of July, the national cotton industrial and commercial inventory was 3.0882 million tons, a decrease of 644,600 tons from the end of June. The commercial inventory was 2.1898 million tons, a decrease of 640,000 tons from the end of June, and the industrial inventory was 898,400 tons, a decrease of 4,600 tons from the end of June [2]. International Market US Supply - As of August 10, the cotton budding rate in the US was 93%, 2 percentage points behind year - on - year and 1 percentage point behind the five - year average; the boll - setting rate was 65%, 7 percentage points behind year - on - year and 6 percentage points behind the five - year average; the flocculation rate was 8%, 4 percentage points behind year - on - year and 2 percentage points behind the five - year average. The overall good - quality rate of cotton plants was 53%, a decrease of 2 percentage points month - on - month and an increase of 7 percentage points year - on - year [2][3]. US Demand - From August 1 to 7, the net signing of US 25/26 - year upland cotton was 54,885 tons, a significant increase month - on - month, with 41,345 tons shipped; the net signing of Pima cotton was 476 tons, with 2,722 tons shipped; the net signing of 26/27 - year upland cotton was 249 tons, and there was no signing of 26/27 - year Pima cotton [3]. Southeast Asian Supply - As of August 8, the new - year cotton sowing area in India reached 10.7 million hectares, a decrease of about 2.7% year - on - year [3]. Southeast Asian Demand - In July, Vietnam's textile and clothing export volume was 3.911 billion US dollars, an increase of 8.7% month - on - month and 5.3% year - on - year; in June, Bangladesh's clothing export volume was 2.788 billion US dollars, a decrease of 28.87% month - on - month and 6.31% year - on - year; in June, India's clothing export volume was 1.31 billion US dollars, a decrease of 13.30% month - on - month and an increase of 1.23% year - on - year; in June, Pakistan's textile and clothing export volume was 1.522 billion US dollars, a decrease of 0.60% month - on - month and an increase of 7.59% year - on - year [3]. Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton 01 contract closed at 14,120 yuan, up 320 yuan with a 2.32% increase; Zhengzhou cotton 05 contract closed at 14,090 yuan, up 340 yuan with a 2.47% increase; Zhengzhou cotton 09 contract closed at 13,835 yuan, up 195 yuan with a 1.43% increase. The CC Index 3128B was 15,216 yuan, up 38 yuan with a 0.25% increase; the CC Index 2227B was 13,335 yuan, up 26 yuan with a 0.2% increase; the CC Index 2129B was 15,486 yuan, up 28 yuan with a 0.18% increase. The FC Index M was 13,576 yuan, up 156 yuan with a 1.16% increase; the FCY Index C32s was 21,255 yuan, up 68 yuan with a 0.32% increase. The cotton yarn futures price was 20,185 yuan, up 580 yuan with a 2.96% increase, and the spot price was 20,720 yuan, up 100 yuan with a 0.48% increase [22][26].

Market Overview - On August 15, the diversified financial sector rose by 1.59% compared to the previous trading day, with ST Yalian leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3696.77, up 0.83%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 11634.67, up 1.6% [1] Stock Performance - ST Yalian (002316) closed at 6.20, with a gain of 5.08% and a trading volume of 224,600 shares, amounting to a transaction value of 137 million [1] - Other notable performers included: - 377178888 (001236) at 13.69, up 4.98%, with a volume of 868,500 shares and a transaction value of 1.164 billion [1] - Nanhua Futures (603093) at 25.58, up 4.32%, with a volume of 512,900 shares and a transaction value of 1.287 billion [1] - Ruida Futures (002961) at 23.94, up 3.82%, with a volume of 192,400 shares and a transaction value of 457 million [1] Capital Flow - The diversified financial sector saw a net inflow of 306 million from institutional investors, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of 101 million [2][3] - Key stocks with significant capital flow included: - Zhongliang Capital (002423) with a net inflow of 1.82 billion from institutional investors [3] - Yuexiu Capital (000987) with a net inflow of 80.82 million from institutional investors [3] - Wukuang Capital (600390) with a net inflow of 73.71 million from institutional investors [3]

Report Overview - Report Name: Nanhua Futures Copper Risk Management Daily Report - Date: August 15, 2025 - Research Team: Nanhua Non - ferrous Metals Research Team [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - Copper prices declined slightly on Thursday due to the stabilization of the US dollar index and the decline of the domestic stock market, which lowered the valuation of commodities. However, the medium - term upward trend of copper prices has emerged. The recent US inflation data is favorable for the Fed to cut interest rates, which lowers the US dollar index and boosts the valuation of the entire non - ferrous metals sector. Downstream terminals are hesitant about the negative demand feedback in August caused by US tariffs, and believe that the current price has basically fulfilled the previous expectations. The previous support level of 77,000 yuan per ton can be raised to 78,000 yuan per ton. The change in the copper term structure from B to C indicates that this round of price increase is supported by the structure and may be more solid [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Copper Price and Volatility - The latest copper price is 78,950 yuan/ton, with a monthly price range forecast of 73,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton. The current volatility is 11.64%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility is 22.6% [2] 3.2 Copper Risk Management Suggestions 3.2.1 Inventory Management - For high finished - product inventory and fear of price decline, with a long spot exposure, it is recommended to sell 75% of the Shanghai Copper main futures contract at around 82,000 yuan/ton and sell 25% of the CU2510C82000 call option when the volatility is relatively stable [2] 3.2.2 Raw Material Management - For low raw - material inventory and fear of price increase, with a short spot exposure, it is recommended to buy 75% of the Shanghai Copper main futures contract at around 77,000 yuan/ton [2] 3.3 Factors Affecting Copper Prices 3.3.1 Bullish Factors - The US and other countries reach an agreement on tariff policies; increased expectations of interest rate cuts lead to a decline in the US dollar index, boosting the valuation of non - ferrous metals; the lower support level is raised [4] 3.3.2 Bearish Factors - Tariff policies are inconsistent; global demand decreases due to tariff policies; the adjustment of US copper tariff policies leads to an extremely high virtual inventory in COMEX [5] 3.4 Copper Futures and Spot Data 3.4.1 Copper Futures Data (Daily) | Futures Type | Unit | Latest Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Copper Main | Yuan/ton | 78,950 | 0 | 0% | | Shanghai Copper Continuous 1 | Yuan/ton | 78,950 | - 430 | - 0.54% | | Shanghai Copper Continuous 3 | Yuan/ton | 78,920 | 0 | 0% | | LME Copper 3M | US dollars/ton | 9,777 | 0 | 0% | [4] 3.4.2 Copper Spot Data (Daily) | Spot Type | Unit | Latest Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Non - ferrous 1 Copper | Yuan/ton | 79,435 | - 40 | - 0.05% | | Shanghai Wumaotrade | Yuan/ton | 79,465 | 50 | 0.06% | | Guangdong Southern Storage | Yuan/ton | 79,390 | 120 | 0.15% | | Yangtze Non - ferrous | Yuan/ton | 79,600 | 90 | 0.11% | | Shanghai Non - ferrous Premium/Discount | Yuan/ton | 210 | 10 | 5% | | Shanghai Wumaotrade Premium/Discount | Yuan/ton | 135 | 0 | 0% | | Guangdong Southern Storage Premium/Discount | Yuan/ton | 175 | 20 | 12.9% | | Yangtze Non - ferrous Premium/Discount | Yuan/ton | 170 | 20 | 13.33% | [8] 3.5 Copper Refined - Scrap Spread - The current refined - scrap spread (tax - included) is 1,128.51 yuan/ton, with a daily change of - 53.62 yuan/ton and a daily change rate of - 4.54%. The reasonable refined - scrap spread (tax - included) is 1,493.2 yuan/ton, with a daily change of - 1.6 yuan/ton and a daily change rate of - 0.11%. The price advantage (tax - included) is - 364.69 yuan/ton, with a daily change of - 52.02 yuan/ton and a daily change rate of 16.64%. Similar data is also provided for the non - tax - included situation [11] 3.6 Copper Warehouse Receipts and Inventories 3.6.1 Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) Copper Warehouse Receipts (Daily) | Warehouse Receipt Type | Unit | Latest Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Total SHFE Copper Warehouse Receipts | Tons | 24,434 | 1,634 | 7.17% | | Total International Copper Warehouse Receipts | Tons | 7,422 | 0 | 0% | | SHFE Copper Warehouse Receipts in Shanghai | Tons | 2,504 | 0 | 0% | | Total Bonded SHFE Copper Warehouse Receipts | Tons | 0 | 0 | - 100% | | Total Tax - paid SHFE Copper Warehouse Receipts | Tons | 24,434 | 1,634 | 7.17% | [13] 3.6.2 LME Copper Inventory (Daily) | Inventory Type | Unit | Latest Price | Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Total LME Copper Inventory | Tons | 155,850 | - 25 | - 0.02% | | LME Copper Inventory in Europe | Tons | 24,900 | - 475 | - 1.87% | | LME Copper Inventory in Asia | Tons | 130,950 | 450 | 0.34% | | LME Copper Inventory in North America | Tons | 0 | 0 | - 100% | | Total LME Copper Registered Warehouse Receipts | Tons | 144,800 | 475 | 0.33% | | Total LME Copper Cancelled Warehouse Receipts | Tons | 11,050 | - 500 | - 4.33% | [15] 3.6.3 COMEX Copper Inventory (Daily) | Inventory Type | Unit | Latest Price | Weekly Change | Weekly Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Total COMEX Copper Inventory | Tons | 266,804 | 3,508 | 1.33% | | Total COMEX Copper Registered Warehouse Receipts | Tons | 124,862 | 1,269 | - 1.99% | | Total COMEX Copper Cancelled Warehouse Receipts | Tons | 141,942 | 2,547 | 1.83% | [17] 3.7 Copper Import Profit and Processing - The copper import profit and loss is 44.55 yuan/ton, with a daily change of 119.85 yuan/ton and a daily change rate of - 159.16%. The copper concentrate TC is - 38 US dollars/ton, with no daily change [18]