Core Viewpoints - The report anticipates potential positive factors for the A-share market in the next month, including domestic growth stabilization and possible negotiations on US-China tariffs, which may drive market rebounds [4][10] - The report suggests that the current tariff shock is a significant black swan event, but due to its occurrence at the beginning of a bull market, the impact on market valuation may have already been completed [11] - The report recommends a value-oriented investment strategy, focusing on sectors that can provide both offensive and defensive opportunities, such as banks, steel, construction, and consumer sectors [12] Stock Recommendations - The report lists the "Top Ten Gold Stocks" for May 2025, which includes companies from various sectors such as food and beverage, home appliances, banking, power utilities, computing, media, electronics, new consumption, and energy [3][13] - Specific stocks highlighted include: - Wanchen Group (300972.SZ) in the food and beverage sector, with a projected EPS growth from -0.46 in 2023 to 6.67 in 2025 [3][14] - Xing Shuai Er (002860.SZ) in home appliances, with a projected EPS growth from 0.56 in 2023 to 0.73 in 2025 [3][18] - Qingdao Bank (002948.SZ) in banking, with a projected EPS growth from 0.61 in 2023 to 1.04 in 2025 [3][21] - New Energy (601918.SH) in power utilities, with a projected EPS growth from 0.81 in 2023 to 1.06 in 2025 [3][25] - Zhaoyi Information (688258.SH) in computing, with a projected EPS growth from 0.46 in 2023 to 0.81 in 2025 [3][29] - Tencent Holdings (0700.HK) in media, with a projected EPS growth from 11.89 in 2023 to 23.67 in 2025 [3][34] - Lens Technology (300433.SZ) in electronics, with a projected EPS growth from 0.61 in 2023 to 1.39 in 2025 [3][38] - Blukoo (0325.HK) in new consumption, with a projected EPS growth from -1.38 in 2023 to 5.53 in 2025 [3][41] - Yanzhou Coal Mining (600188.SH) in energy, with a projected EPS growth from 2.01 in 2023 to 1.39 in 2025 [3][45] - Xianhe Co., Ltd. (603733.SH) in new consumption, with a projected EPS growth from 0.94 in 2023 to 2.54 in 2025 [3][46] Industry Insights - The food and beverage sector, represented by Wanchen Group, is expected to strengthen its competitive position with a significant increase in store numbers and a focus on the snack retail market [14][15] - The home appliance sector, represented by Xing Shuai Er, is experiencing stable growth in white goods, driven by national subsidy policies [18][19] - The banking sector, represented by Qingdao Bank, shows strong loan growth and improved asset quality, with a focus on manufacturing and green loans [21][22] - The power utility sector, represented by New Energy, is expected to benefit from rising coal demand and improved cost management [25][26] - The computing sector, represented by Zhaoyi Information, is positioned for growth with its unique low-code development platform, SnapDevelop, which has a strong market potential [29][30] - The media sector, represented by Tencent Holdings, is seeing robust growth in its gaming and advertising businesses, with significant contributions from its social media platforms [34][35] - The electronics sector, represented by Lens Technology, is benefiting from the growth of the smartphone market and strong partnerships with major clients [38][39] - The new consumption sector, represented by Blukoo, is leveraging its IP commercialization strategy to drive growth and expand its market presence [41][42] - The energy sector, represented by Yanzhou Coal Mining, is focused on increasing coal production and improving cost efficiency amid fluctuating coal prices [45][46]

[Table_ReportType] 公司点评报告 证券研究报告 公司研究 [Table_StockAndRank] 仙鹤股份(603733) | 投资评级 | 买入 | | --- | --- | | 上次评级 | 买入 | [Table_Title] 仙鹤股份：控股股东大额增持，成本改善+销 量增量+新产品开发 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 04 月 09 日 报告内容摘要: [Table_S 事件：公司控股股东仙鹤集团计划自 ummary] 4 月 7 日起 6 个月内，累计拟增持股份金 额 3-5 亿元，彰显发展信心和投资价值。 浆纸价格小幅探涨，成本改善明确。我们预计 Q1 公司盈利有望环比平稳或小 幅改善，Q2 有望创新高，全年盈利有望超预期。 1）浆纸价格小幅提升：我们预计 2-3 月热转印、热敏、格拉辛、食品卡等景气 向上纸种提价部分落地，且 4 月仍有提价预期；4 月浆厂坚持挺价（阔叶+20 美金/吨）、以涨促销，后续浆价或震荡偏强，驱动盈利能力提升。 2）新基地成本改善：公司广西基地、湖北基地林浆纸一体化匹配度逐步提高， 伴随新基地产能爬坡，我们预计盈利中枢持续向上。 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Insights - The controlling shareholder, Xianhe Group, plans to increase its shareholding by 300-500 million yuan over the next six months, demonstrating confidence in the company's development and investment value [1] - The price of pulp paper has slightly increased, leading to improved cost structures. The company is expected to see stable or slightly improved profits in Q1, with Q2 potentially reaching new highs, and annual profits expected to exceed forecasts [2][3] Summary by Sections Pulp Price and Cost Improvement - Pulp prices are expected to rise due to price increases in various paper types, with further price hikes anticipated in April. The company is expected to benefit from improved profitability as pulp prices stabilize [2] - The integration of the new bases in Guangxi and Hubei is expected to enhance cost efficiency, with profitability expected to trend upwards as production ramps up [2] Growth Path and Expansion - The company is expanding its production capacity with new bases in Guangxi and Hubei, projected to produce over 900,000 tons of paper and pulp. This is expected to drive a paper production growth rate of over 30% in 2025 [3] - Continuous development of differentiated products, including various specialized papers, is underway, which will enhance the product portfolio [3] - The company aims to expand its overseas business, gradually increasing the proportion of overseas revenue and leveraging international production capacity for accelerated growth [3] Financial Projections - The projected net profits for 2024-2026 are 1.06 billion, 1.44 billion, and 1.79 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 13.5X, 10.0X, and 8.0X, maintaining a "Buy" rating [3][4]

仙鹤股份 20250409 摘要 Q&A 仙鹤股份近期计划进行 3 到 5 亿元的回购，这一举措背后的原因是什么？ 仙鹤股份的大股东计划以 3 到 5 亿元资金进行回购，这一轮回购是在去年政策 基础上进行的。去年九月份，政策鼓励经营稳定且具有稳定现金流的公司加大 回购力度，公司当时申请了贷款。近期股价因市场波动出现异常回调，公司顺 势发布了回购计划。从资金和比例来看，这次回购反映了公司对长期发展的信 心。去年大股东增持 3,000 到 5,000 万元，主要是为了增强市场信心。今年的 3 到 5 亿元回购则基于整个经营情况和未来几年的预期，预计会有较大的弹性， • 仙鹤股份近期发布回购计划，金额为 3-5 亿元，彰显公司对长期发展的信 心。此前大股东已增持 3,000-5,000 万元，旨在增强市场信心，表明公司 对自身价值的认可。 • 仙鹤股份股价与单吨盈利变化密切相关。2020-2021 年单吨盈利快速扩张， 毛利率超 25%，推动股价上涨。尽管去年四季度单吨盈利有所下降，但股 价仍保持强势，目前估值已降至 10-15 倍，下行空间有限。 • 仙鹤股份在特种纸行业具备浆纸一体化和成本优势。广西来宾政府提供 ...

本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者 重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担个别及连带责任。 重要内容提示： 增持计划的基本情况：基于对公司未来持续发展的信心及长期投资价值 的认可，为提升公司市值管理成效、增强投资者信心，切实维护广大投资者利益， 公司控股股东浙江仙鹤控股集团有限公司（以下简称"仙鹤控股"）计划自本公 告披露之日起 6 个月内，通过上海证券交易所交易系统以集中竞价的方式增持本 公司 A 股股份，累计拟增持股份的金额为不低于人民币 30,000 万元且不超过人 民币 50,000 万元（以下简称"本次增持计划"）。 | 证券代码：603733 | 证券简称：仙鹤股份 | 公告编号：2025-012 | | --- | --- | --- | | 债券代码：113632 | 债券简称：鹤21转债 | | 仙鹤股份有限公司 关于控股股东增持公司股份计划暨取得金融机构 贷款承诺函的公告 2、2024 年 5 月 9 日，公司披露了《仙鹤股份有限公司关于实际控制人增持 公司股份计划的公告》（公告编号：2024-028），公司实际控制人之一王敏文先生 拟使用自有 ...

Investment Rating - The report provides a positive investment outlook for various sectors, particularly recommending companies in the home furnishing, new tobacco, light consumer goods, and paper packaging industries [5][23][24][26]. Core Insights - The home furnishing sector is expected to stabilize with the introduction of consumer subsidies, leading to improved order intake for many companies [5][19]. - New tobacco products, particularly from Smoore International, are anticipated to benefit from market expansion despite tariff challenges [23]. - The paper packaging industry is facing high pulp inventory levels, which may slow down profit recovery, but consolidation efforts are expected to improve competition [24]. - The light consumer goods sector, especially in pet products, is likely to see accelerated domestic brand growth due to increased tariffs on imports [26]. Summary by Sections Home Furnishing Sector - Domestic sales are improving as consumer subsidies are rolled out, with expectations for further stimulus policies [5][19]. - Companies like Gujia Home and Sophia are highlighted for their strong market positions and growth potential [5][19]. - Export challenges due to increased tariffs are noted, but companies with strong domestic sales channels are expected to perform well [5][19]. New Tobacco - Smoore International is positioned to adapt to tariff impacts due to its production capabilities in Indonesia [23]. - The electronic cigarette market is expected to maintain consumer demand despite potential price increases from tariffs [23]. - The overall market for compliant brands is projected to expand, providing growth opportunities [23]. Paper Packaging - High pulp inventory levels are suppressing price increases, with a slow recovery in profitability expected [24][25]. - The acquisition of Zhongliang Packaging by Aorijin is expected to enhance competitive dynamics in the industry [24]. - The introduction of new consumer electronics subsidies is anticipated to benefit leading packaging companies [24]. Light Consumer Goods - The pet food market is expected to see a shift towards domestic brands as tariffs on imports increase [26]. - Companies like Guibao Pet are positioned to capture market share due to their competitive pricing and product quality [26]. - The AI glasses segment is highlighted for its growth potential, with recommendations to focus on key supply chain players [26].

| 证券代码：603733 | 证券简称：仙鹤股份 公告编号：2025-011 | | --- | --- | | 债券代码：113632 | 债券简称：鹤21转债 | 仙鹤股份有限公司 可转债转股结果暨股份变动公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者 重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担个别及连带责任。 重要内容提示： 累计转股情况：截至 2025 年 3 月 31 日，累计共有人民币 108,000 元"鹤 21 转债"已转换成公司股票，累计转股数量为 3,848 股，占可转债转股前公司已 发行股份总额的 0.00055%。 未转股可转债情况：截至 2025 年 3 月 31 日，尚未转股的"鹤 21 转债" 金额为人民币 2,049,891,000 元，占可转债发行总量的 99.9947%。 本季度转股情况：自 2025 年 1 月 1 日至 2025 年 3 月 31 日期间，累计共 有人民币 1,000 元"鹤 21 转债"已转换成公司股票，累计转股数量为 51 股，占 可转债转股前公司已发行股份总额的 0.00001%。 一、可转债发行上市概况 （一 ...

仙鹤股份 20250228 摘要 • 纸浆价格温和上涨挤压造纸企业盈利，但也带来提价机会，目前造纸行业 产销情况良好，特种纸行业需求稳健增长，进出口剪刀差持续放大，整体 需求增量达 20 万吨以上。 • 特种纸行业呈现结构性增长，细分市场如展宇、格拉辛、热敏、电解电容 器等需求稳增，2 月起特种纸价格陆续上涨，热转印每吨涨价达 1,000 元， 推动行业进入盈利扩张阶段。 • 仙鹤股份广西、湖北基地浆纸产能释放，广西基地已贡献盈利，湖北基地 盈利能力显著改善。公司内部生产协调匹配度提升，将进一步推动盈利扩 张。 • 特种纸行业毛利率处于历史低位，但龙头企业具备柔性化生产优势，供需 优于表观数据。进出口剪刀差及结构性增长驱动需求，龙头企业产能扩张 温和，竞争格局预计不会恶化。 • 预计 2024-2025 年特种纸市场需求增加 60 万吨，与龙头企业扩张计划匹 配。CR5 市场份额提升，行业供需温和，细分市场供需紧张，促使龙头企 业继续扩张。 Q&A 近期投资策略和重点板块有哪些变化？ 近期的投资策略更多地集中在顺周期的低位板块上，尤其关注那些具有成长性 和成本改善逻辑的个股。当前市场对顺周期板块的预期较低，许 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company is expected to see a recovery in profitability, with contributions from its Guangxi and Hubei bases [2] - The price of paper products is anticipated to increase slightly due to seasonal demand, supported by rising pulp prices [2] - The company has a clear growth path with significant production capacity expansion planned for 2024 and 2025, leading to a projected paper production growth rate of over 30% in 2025 [2][3] - The company is expected to maintain strong profitability, with net profits projected to reach 1.06 billion, 1.44 billion, and 1.79 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [3] Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to grow from 8.55 billion yuan in 2023 to 16.64 billion yuan in 2026, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of approximately 25.2% [4] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase significantly from 664 million yuan in 2023 to 1.79 billion yuan in 2026, with a year-on-year growth rate of 59.8% in 2024 [4] - The gross margin is expected to improve from 11.6% in 2023 to 16.0% in 2026, indicating better cost management and operational efficiency [4] - The company's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 21.94 in 2023 to 8.13 in 2026, suggesting an attractive valuation as earnings grow [4][7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Insights - The company is expected to see a recovery in profitability, with contributions from its Guangxi and Hubei bases [2] - The growth path is clear, with a focus on the synergy between pulp and paper operations leading to efficiency improvements [2] - The company is positioned as a market leader with abundant orders, and the industry landscape is expected to accelerate concentration in 2025 [3] Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue is projected to grow from 8,553 million in 2023 to 16,637 million in 2026, reflecting a CAGR of 25.2% [4] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase from 664 million in 2023 to 1,790 million in 2026, with a significant growth rate of 59.8% in 2024 [4] - The gross margin is anticipated to improve from 11.6% in 2023 to 16.0% in 2026 [4] - The company's PE ratio is projected to decrease from 21.94 in 2023 to 8.13 in 2026, indicating a more attractive valuation over time [4] Growth Drivers - The company plans to launch over 900,000 tons of paper production capacity and approximately 900,000 tons of pulp capacity from its Guangxi and Hubei bases [2] - The local wood resources in Guangxi and the exploration of reed pulp in Hubei are expected to provide cost advantages and improve production efficiency [2] - The company is likely to benefit from rising pulp prices and improved cost structures as it ramps up production in its new bases [2][3]