Core Viewpoint - The energy metals sector experienced a 0.63% increase on January 26, with Shengtu Mining leading the gains, while the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.09% and the Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 0.85% [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - The energy metals sector's individual stock performance showed significant variations, with Jidian Mining closing at 18.18, up by 5.09%, and Ganfeng Lithium down by 0.31% at 73.64 [1]. - The trading volume for Jidian Mining reached 2.0884 million shares, with a transaction value of 3.744 billion [1]. - The overall market saw the Shanghai Composite Index close at 4132.61 and the Shenzhen Component Index at 14316.64 [1]. Group 2: Capital Flow - The energy metals sector saw a net inflow of 98.6035 million in main funds, while retail funds experienced a net outflow of 34.3477 million [2]. - The main funds' net inflow for Huayou Cobalt was 26.8 million, while it faced a net outflow of 78.5894 million from speculative funds [3]. - The capital flow data indicates that the sector is attracting institutional investment despite some outflows from retail investors [2][3].

Core Viewpoint - The colored metal ETF (512400) is experiencing significant growth, driven by rising prices in precious and industrial metals, with expectations for continued upward momentum in the sector due to various macroeconomic factors [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of January 26, 2026, the colored metal ETF (512400) increased by 4.62%, with a trading volume of 1.108 billion yuan and a turnover rate of 2.8% [1]. - The index tracking the colored metal sector, the Zhongzheng Shenwan Colored Metal Index, saw notable gains in individual stocks, including silver rising by 10.03%, Hunan Gold by 10.01%, and Xingye Silver Tin by 9.99% [1]. - The colored metal sector has attracted significant investment, with over 36 billion yuan net inflow into colored metal-themed ETFs (excluding gold) this year, bringing the total scale to over 100 billion yuan [2]. Group 2: Price Trends and Predictions - On January 26, spot gold prices surpassed $5,080 per ounce, marking a new high with an intraday increase of over 2%, while spot silver rose over 3% to reach $106.83 per ounce [2]. - Historical patterns suggest that gold prices may increase between 10% and 35% in 2026, influenced by expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, instability in the US dollar, midterm elections, and geopolitical uncertainties [2]. - The recent surge in metals such as gold, silver, tin, and lithium indicates a potential bull market for colored metals, with ongoing valuation adjustments lagging behind commodity price increases [2]. Group 3: Investment Sentiment and Strategies - Fund companies and investors are increasingly focusing on the colored metal sector, with public funds significantly increasing their positions in this industry by the fourth quarter of 2025 [2]. - Current market narratives driving global asset performance include the weakening of the US dollar credit cycle, the formation of a new monetary system anchored by gold pricing, and the reconfiguration of global supply chains [3]. - The colored metal ETF (512400) closely tracks the Zhongzheng Shenwan Colored Metal Index, which comprises 50 listed companies in the colored metal and non-metal materials sectors, reflecting the overall performance of this industry [3].

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the performance and strategic adjustments of the Jiashi New Energy Materials Stock A Fund, indicating a positive growth trajectory and a focus on resource-oriented upstream assets in the new energy sector [2][3]. Fund Performance - The fund reported a profit of 58.44 million yuan in Q4 2025, with a weighted average profit per fund share of 0.0539 yuan [2]. - The net asset value (NAV) growth rate for the fund was 2.04% during the reporting period, with a total fund size of 2.855 billion yuan as of the end of Q4 [2][15]. - As of January 22, the fund's one-year compounded NAV growth rate reached 71.59%, ranking 4th among comparable funds [3]. Comparative Performance - Over the past three months, the fund's compounded NAV growth rate was 15.47%, ranking 11th out of 39 comparable funds [3]. - The fund's six-month compounded NAV growth rate was 57.48%, placing it 3rd among its peers [3]. - The fund's three-year Sharpe ratio was 0.5367, ranking 12th out of 32 comparable funds [8]. Risk and Exposure - The fund's maximum drawdown over the past three years was 55.48%, ranking 28th out of 32 comparable funds, with the largest quarterly drawdown occurring in Q3 2022 at 24.88% [9]. - The average stock position over the past three years was 91.63%, higher than the industry average of 87.73%, with a peak position of 94.62% at the end of 2023 [12]. Holdings and Strategy - The fund has a high concentration of holdings, with stable stock targets. As of Q4 2025, the top ten holdings included companies like CATL, Salt Lake Potash, and Huayou Cobalt [19]. - The fund management indicated a strategic shift towards increasing exposure to upstream assets related to lithium carbonate, cobalt, and nickel, in response to macroeconomic and market conditions [2].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [3] Core Views - Short-term raw material supply tightness is expected to support nickel prices, with LME nickel spot price reaching $18,630 per ton, up 5.70% from January 16 [1] - The cobalt market is anticipated to see continued price increases due to structural supply tightness, with electrolytic cobalt priced at 438,000 yuan per ton, down 3.74% from January 16 [2][5] - Domestic antimony supply remains tight, providing price support, with antimony ingot prices at 160,500 yuan per ton [6] - Lithium carbonate prices are expected to continue rising, with a market average of 171,100 yuan per ton, up 8.36% from January 16 [8][19] - Supply uncertainties in the rare earth market are expected to support prices, with significant global supply concentration in China [10][20] - Tin prices are supported by overseas supply uncertainties, with LME tin prices at $54,200 per ton, up 9.66% from January 16 [11][21] - Tungsten market supply-demand imbalance is notable, with white tungsten concentrate prices at 535,500 yuan per ton, up 5.93% from January 16 [13][22] - Uranium supply tightness is expected to persist, with global uranium prices at $63.51 per pound [14][15] Summary by Sections Nickel and Cobalt Industry Update - Nickel prices are supported by supply constraints, with Indonesia's nickel mining production quota expected to be reduced to 250-260 million tons [1][16] - Cobalt supply is projected to tighten further, with Congo's export quotas confirmed to extend into 2026 [2][17] Antimony Industry Update - Antimony supply remains tight, with domestic prices expected to rise due to export restrictions and seasonal supply issues [6][18] Lithium Industry Update - Lithium carbonate prices are expected to remain strong due to demand support and supply uncertainties, particularly regarding the recovery of key lithium mines [8][19] Rare Earth Industry Update - The rare earth market is facing supply tightening due to export bans and geopolitical factors, with China maintaining a dominant position [10][20] Tin Industry Update - Tin prices are supported by uncertainties in overseas supply, particularly from Myanmar and Congo [11][21] Tungsten Industry Update - The tungsten market is experiencing a supply-demand imbalance, with prices expected to rise due to limited new supply [13][22] Uranium Industry Update - Uranium prices are supported by ongoing supply tightness and geopolitical factors affecting production [14][15]

Core Viewpoint - The lithium battery industry is expected to see significant growth in 2025, driven by strong demand from downstream markets such as electric vehicles, energy storage, and consumer electronics [1] Group 1: Company Performance Forecasts - XianDao Intelligent anticipates a net profit of 1.5 billion to 1.8 billion yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 424.29% to 529.15% due to a recovering global power battery market and strong demand in the energy storage sector [2] - PuTaiLai expects a net profit of 2.3 billion to 2.4 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 93.18% to 101.58%, driven by the ongoing trend of electrification in the automotive market and recovery in the consumer electronics sector [4] - TianCi Materials forecasts a net profit of 1.1 billion to 1.6 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 127.31% to 230.63%, attributed to increased sales of lithium-ion battery materials and effective cost control [5] - Hunan YuNeng projects a net profit of 1.15 billion to 1.4 billion yuan in 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 93.75% to 135.87%, driven by rapid growth in the demand for lithium battery cathode materials [6] Group 2: Industry Trends and Developments - The overall market for lithium battery materials is expected to improve, with many companies in the lithium battery supply chain predicting significant performance growth in 2025 [5] - The global household energy storage system shipment is projected to reach approximately 35 GWh in 2025, a nearly 50% year-on-year increase, indicating a new demand release cycle following inventory adjustments [9] - The effective production capacity for lithium hexafluorophosphate is expected to reach 40,000 tons in 2026, with an annual operating rate exceeding 90%, suggesting sustained high prices for lithium hexafluorophosphate [9]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the non-ferrous metals industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The report highlights that copper prices are experiencing high-level fluctuations amidst inventory accumulation, with short-term price adjustments expected to be limited due to the financial attributes of copper supported by rising gold prices. The supply-demand balance for copper may shift from tight equilibrium to shortage in the medium to long term, driven by insufficient capital expenditure in copper mines and frequent supply disruptions. The report suggests monitoring companies such as Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, Jiangxi Copper, and others [5] - For aluminum, the report notes that both alumina and aluminum prices are under pressure due to high inventory levels. The short-term outlook for aluminum prices is expected to remain stable amidst high demand, particularly in the air conditioning and consumer goods sectors [5] - Lithium demand remains strong despite seasonal trends, with lithium carbonate prices entering an upward cycle driven by supply-demand reversal. The report recommends focusing on companies with high self-sufficiency in lithium resources [5] - Cobalt prices are expected to continue rising due to tight raw material supply, with the report suggesting companies like Huayou Cobalt and others for investment [5] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The report provides insights into macroeconomic indicators, including the U.S. core PCE price index and unemployment claims, which align with expectations [9] - Key announcements include Zijin Mining's completion of the second phase of the Jilong Copper Mine, significantly increasing its production capacity [10] 2. Market Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index, with a weekly increase of 6.03% compared to the index's 0.84% rise [11] - The report lists the top-performing stocks in the sector, highlighting significant movements in various sub-sectors [11] 3. Valuation Changes - The report notes that the TTM PE for the non-ferrous metals sector is 33.82, with a change of 1.79, while the PB is 4.18, reflecting a significant premium over the broader market [20][23]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for all key companies listed, including Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Huayou Cobalt, among others [2]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant increase in commodity prices, particularly in precious metals like gold and silver, driven by rising geopolitical tensions and inflation concerns [8][67]. - Industrial metals are expected to see price stability due to improved domestic demand and production adjustments, despite some fluctuations in inventory levels [21][24]. - The energy metals sector, particularly cobalt and nickel, is facing supply constraints, which may lead to price increases in the near future [83]. Industry and Company Performance - The SW Nonferrous Index rose by 6.03% during the week of January 19-23, with precious metals like gold and silver increasing by 8.30% and 14.80%, respectively [8]. - Key companies such as Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum are projected to have strong earnings growth, with EPS estimates for 2024 at 1.21 and 0.63 yuan, respectively [2]. - The report recommends several companies for investment, including Shengtu Mining, China Nonferrous Mining, and Western Mining, based on their strong market positions and growth potential [8]. Base Metals - Aluminum prices are expected to remain under pressure due to high inventory levels, with LME aluminum prices recorded at $3,174 per ton, reflecting a 1.44% increase [13][24]. - Copper prices are influenced by macroeconomic factors, with current prices at $13,128.5 per ton, showing a 2.50% increase [13][38]. - Zinc prices have shown volatility, with LME zinc prices at $3,246.5 per ton, reflecting a 1.17% increase, driven by supply disruptions [43][44]. Precious Metals - Gold and silver prices have surged due to heightened geopolitical risks, with gold trading at approximately 4,983.10 USD per ounce, an increase of 8.30% [15][67]. - The report emphasizes the long-term bullish outlook for gold prices, supported by central bank purchases and weakening dollar credit [67]. Energy Metals - Cobalt prices are expected to rise due to ongoing supply shortages, with current prices around 432,500 yuan per ton [83]. - Nickel prices are projected to remain high due to production cuts in Indonesia, with current prices at 148,010 yuan per ton [55].

- The report focuses on the "CSI Nonferrous Metal Mining Theme Index," which selects 40 listed companies with nonferrous metal mineral reserves as index samples, reflecting the overall performance of nonferrous metal mining-themed listed companies. The index emphasizes upstream mining companies due to their higher profit elasticity and direct benefits from metal price increases. The index is designed to capture the value of upstream resource enterprises and is suitable for investors optimistic about resource cycle trends[27][28][32] - The index adopts a balanced strategy for selecting constituent stocks. It first excludes the bottom 10% of low-liquidity stocks based on daily trading volume, then selects the top three securities from each CSI fourth-level industry based on market capitalization rankings over the past year. If fewer than three securities are available, all are included. Remaining samples are added based on market capitalization rankings until the total reaches 40 stocks. This ensures representation across various resource categories, including gold, aluminum, rare earths, cobalt, lithium, and other strategic metals. The index is adjusted semi-annually in June and December[28][32] - The index's constituent stocks are distributed across four major sectors: industrial metals, energy metals, precious metals, and strategic small metals. This structure aligns with high-demand downstream industries such as new energy, AI computing power, power infrastructure, and semiconductors, enabling precise capture of core investment opportunities across the entire industry chain[7][32][40] - The index's market capitalization distribution is concentrated in large-cap stocks, with 55.61% of the weight allocated to stocks with a market capitalization above 1 trillion RMB. Mid-cap stocks (200-1000 billion RMB) account for 43.09% of the weight, providing effective support. This structure avoids risks associated with small-cap stocks while leveraging the resource barriers of large-cap leaders and capturing growth opportunities in niche sectors[41][46] - The index demonstrates strong performance across various timeframes. Over the past year, its return reached 120.35%, significantly outperforming major broad-based indices like the CSI 300 (24.58%) and the Shanghai Composite Index (27.13%). It also surpassed industry indices such as the SW Nonferrous Metals Index (107.58%). In the medium term, its six-month return was 95.59%, and its three-month return was 28.48%. Short-term performance was equally impressive, with a one-month return of 24.06%[59][62][64]

Core Insights - The AI Fund Changjiang New Energy Industry Mixed A (011446) reported a profit of 12.24 million yuan for Q4 2025, with a weighted average profit per fund share of 0.1594 yuan. The fund's net value growth rate for the reporting period was 10.18%, and the fund size reached 123 million yuan by the end of Q4 2025 [2][13]. Fund Performance - As of January 21, the fund's unit net value was 1.932 yuan. Over the past year, the fund achieved a cumulative growth rate of 76.8%, outperforming its peers [2]. - The fund's performance over different time frames includes a 27.27% growth rate over the past three months, ranking 7 out of 621 comparable funds, and a 59.78% growth rate over the past six months, ranking 27 out of 621 [3]. Investment Strategy - The fund focuses on the new energy industry and its upstream and downstream sectors, seeking opportunities in supply-demand reversals and technological advancements within the industry. The management plans to continue tracking and identifying investment opportunities in these areas [2]. Risk Metrics - The fund's Sharpe ratio over the past three years is 0.6629, ranking 173 out of 526 comparable funds [7]. - The maximum drawdown over the past three years was 43.48%, with the largest single-quarter drawdown occurring in Q2 2022 at 21.13% [9]. Portfolio Composition - As of December 31, the fund's average stock position over the past three years was 78.37%, compared to the industry average of 85.83%. The fund reached its highest stock position of 86.26% at the end of 2021 and its lowest of 72.55% by the end of Q3 2024 [12]. - The top ten holdings of the fund include Tianqi Lithium, Huayou Cobalt, CATL, Tianhua New Energy, Yongxing Materials, China National Materials, Liyuanheng, Guoci Materials, Sifang Co., and Keda Technology [16].

Core Insights - The report highlights a bullish outlook for the metals sector, driven by macroeconomic factors such as the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and a recovering global economy, particularly in China [3][44] - Key investment themes for 2026 include expanding demand for precious metals like gold and silver, improving fundamentals for aluminum and copper, strategic opportunities in rare earths, and supply-side disruptions due to overcapacity in certain sectors [3][4] Group 1: Precious Metals - The report suggests a long-term bullish view on gold, with expectations of price increases driven by anticipated interest rate cuts and geopolitical tensions, which enhance gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [3][44] - Silver is also highlighted as a key investment opportunity due to its high price ratio to gold, indicating potential for significant price appreciation [3] - Specific companies to watch include Shandong Gold (600547.SH) and Zijin Mining (601899.SH), which are expected to benefit from increased production and operational efficiencies [4] Group 2: Industrial Metals - The report notes that aluminum and copper are set to see improved profitability due to lower production costs and increased demand, particularly in the context of infrastructure investments [3][4] - Companies such as Zhongfu Industrial (600595.SH) and Zijin Mining (601899.SH) are identified as having strong positions in the copper market, with expected profit growth [4] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring supply chain dynamics, particularly in copper, where inventory levels are shifting significantly [18][58] Group 3: Rare Earths and Strategic Metals - The report identifies rare earth elements as a critical area for investment, particularly in light of geopolitical tensions between the US and China, which may create opportunities for companies involved in rare earth mining and processing [3][4] - Companies like Northern Rare Earth (600111.SH) and China Rare Earth (000831.SZ) are highlighted for their potential to benefit from price increases in rare earth materials [4] Group 4: Energy Metals - The report discusses the rebound in lithium and nickel prices, driven by strong demand from the battery sector, with specific mention of companies like Tianqi Lithium (002466.SZ) and Ganfeng Lithium (002460.SZ) [4][27] - The expected growth in energy storage solutions is also noted as a significant driver for demand in these metals [4] Group 5: Overall Market Performance - The overall performance of the non-ferrous metals sector is noted to have outperformed the broader market, with a cumulative increase of 96.46% in 2025 compared to a 21.65% increase in the Shanghai Composite Index [33][35] - The report indicates that while the sector has seen significant gains, valuations are currently at historical averages, suggesting potential for further growth [35]