2025 年 4 月 30 日 公司研究 外贸业务持续增长，一季度业绩增长表现靓丽 ——顾家家居（603816.SH）2024 年年报及 2025 年一季报点评 买入（维持） 当前价：24.94 元 作者 分析师：姜浩 执业证书编号：S0930522010001 021-52523680 jianghao@ebscn.com 联系人：吴子倩 021-52523872 wuziqian@ebscn.com -29% -17% -4% 8% 21% 04/24 07/24 10/24 01/25 顾家家居 沪深300 | 收益表现 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | % | 1M | 3M | 1Y | | 相对 | 0.16 | -9.61 | -27.04 | | 绝对 | -2.84 | -10.26 | -22.43 | | 资料来源：Wind | | | | 相关研报 外贸业务延续增长，"1+N+X"渠道战略持 续推进中——顾家家居（603816.SH）2024 年三季报点评（2024-10-29） 外贸业务表现亮眼，毛利率同比有所提升— —顾家家居（603816.S ...

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai Stock Exchange's main board companies have shown resilience and stability in their performance, supported by a series of incremental policies, reflecting a robust economic structure in China [1] Group 1: Export Market Diversification - In 2024, companies on the Shanghai main board achieved overseas revenue of 6.09 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7%, with non-US exports accounting for over 80% [2] - Key export destinations include ASEAN, Africa, and countries involved in the Belt and Road Initiative, with significant growth in sales for companies like SANY Heavy Industry and SAIC Motor [2] - Major construction state-owned enterprises have actively expanded overseas, signing new orders worth 1.87 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15% [2] Group 2: High-Tech Product Exports - High-tech products such as high-end equipment, integrated circuits, smart home appliances, and electric vehicles have accelerated exports, leading to revenue growth in related industries [3] - Companies like Oriental Cable and Zhaoyi Innovation have made significant strides in international markets, with Zhaoyi Innovation achieving record high shipments [3] - The rise of new business models like cross-border e-commerce has boosted overseas sales for various sectors, including light manufacturing and retail [3] Group 3: Mergers and Acquisitions Activity - From 2024 to the first quarter of 2025, over 1,500 new M&A transactions were recorded on the Shanghai main board, with a total transaction value exceeding 1.4 trillion yuan [4] - Notable M&A cases include Guotai Junan's acquisition of Haitong Securities and China Shipbuilding's proposed merger with China CSSC, each exceeding 100 billion yuan [4] - The trend of private acquisitions and the purchase of quality non-profitable assets has emerged, indicating a shift in M&A strategies [4][5] Group 4: Quality Improvement and Efficiency - By 2024, 946 companies on the Shanghai main board disclosed "quality improvement and efficiency return" action plans, with nearly 60% participation [6] - Among the companies that disclosed plans, nearly 90% achieved profitability, and almost 50% reported performance growth [6] - The total cash dividend announced by 1,259 companies reached 1.77 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6%, with a dividend payout ratio of 39% [7] Group 5: ESG Reporting and Progress - In 2024, 1,068 companies on the Shanghai main board disclosed ESG reports, achieving a disclosure rate of approximately 63%, an increase of 6 percentage points year-on-year [9] - The number of companies included in the MSCI ESG rating increased, with 90 companies receiving upgrades in their ratings [9] - Companies have actively engaged in social responsibility initiatives, contributing to employment and environmental sustainability [10] Group 6: Index Investment Growth - In 2024, net inflows into ETFs on the Shanghai main board reached nearly 840 billion yuan, with significant participation from foreign capital [11] - The trading volume of ETFs ranked first in Asia, with a total trading amount of nearly 30 trillion yuan [11] - Foreign investment preferences are concentrated in sectors such as banking, food and beverage, and public utilities, indicating a strategic focus on stable industries [12] Group 7: Exit Mechanisms and Risk Mitigation - Since 2025, 19 companies on the Shanghai main board have faced various forms of delisting, with a significant portion resulting from financial issues [13] - The introduction of diverse exit channels, including voluntary delisting and asset restructuring, has become more prominent [13] - Companies have actively taken measures to improve operations and mitigate risks, with several successfully lifting delisting warnings [13]

顾家家居(603816) 报告日期：2025 年 04 月 30 日 Q1 收入、利润双亮眼，组织调整成效显著 ——顾家家居业绩点评 投资要点 ❑ 业绩一览 1）25Q1 单季度收入 49.14 亿，增长 12.95%（同比，下同）；归母利润 5.19 亿、 增长 23.53%，扣非增长 22.15%，表现超预期。 2）24A 收入 184.8 亿、下降 3.8%，归母利润 14.17 亿、下降 29.38%，扣非 13.01 亿、下降 26.92%。 3）24Q4 单季度收入 46.78 亿、下降 7.84%，归母利润 0.58 亿，由于减值计提较 多表现承压（对红星债计提 2.13 亿元减值，对纳图兹商誉计提 0.51 亿元减值）， 此外公司在 Q4 处置了领尚美居（1 万元出售）、班尔奇（53 万元出售）、卡文家 居（5.1 万元出售）等子公司，我们预计低价转让产生一定损失。 ❑ 内销：功能+定制持续驱动、大店业务零售额+16% 24 年内销收入 93.61 亿（同比-14.4%），毛利率同比-0.35pct。 24 年 10 月公司应对下滑困境果断开启新一轮组织调整，强化单品竞争力，我们 预计 25Q ...

顾家家居（ [Table_StockNameRptType] 603816） 公司点评 25Q1 业绩亮眼，以变革赢挑战 [Table_Rank] 投资评级：买入（维持） 报告日期： 2025-04-30 [Table_BaseData] 收盘价（元） 25.07 近 12 个月最高/最低（元） 39.18/21.44 总股本（百万股） 822 流通股本（百万股） 812 流通股比例（%） 98.82 总市值（亿元） 206 流通市值（亿元） 204 [公司价格与沪深 Table_Chart] 300 走势比较 [Table_Author] 分析师：徐偲 执业证书号：S0010523120001 邮箱：xucai@hazq.com 分析师：余倩莹 ⚫[Table_Summary] 事件：公司发布 2024 年年报和 2025 年第一季度报告 公司发布 2024 年年报，2024 年实现营业收入 184.8 亿元，同比下降 3.81%；实现归母净利润 14.17 亿元，同比下降 29.38%。单季度来看， 2024 年第四季度实现营业收入 46.78 亿元，同比下降 7.84%；实现归 母净利润 0.58 亿元 ...

Core Insights - Gujia Home achieved a revenue of 18.48 billion RMB and a net profit of 1.417 billion RMB in 2024, demonstrating resilience amid industry challenges through business transformation and efficiency improvements [1] - In Q1 2025, Gujia Home reported a revenue of 4.914 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 12.95%, and a net profit of 519 million RMB, up 23.53% [1] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 1.38 RMB per share, totaling 1.134 billion RMB, which represents 80.06% of the net profit attributable to shareholders [1] Management and Governance - Gujia Home has upgraded its governance structure by introducing professional managers, including a new chairman and four vice presidents with extensive operational experience [1][2] - The management team is characterized by a younger demographic, which enhances sensitivity to emerging consumer trends and market dynamics [2] - The company has improved its operational efficiency, with sales and management expense ratios decreasing to 15.21% and 2.39%, respectively [2] Retail Transformation - The company has successfully implemented a user-centric retail transformation, with membership exceeding 6 million and monthly active users growing by 84% [4] - Gujia Home has launched the first full-chain "AI Design Brain" in the home furnishing industry, enhancing its production capabilities [4] - The company is expanding its shopping center channels, achieving a natural traffic rate nearly ten times higher than traditional stores, with new stores achieving payback in as little as three months [5] Emerging Business Growth - Gujia Home's self-owned brand business is expanding internationally, with stores established in countries like India, Thailand, and Vietnam [5] - The company has developed a differentiated competitive edge in the market through its integrated product offerings and service capabilities [5] Market Outlook - Multiple institutions, including Huatai Securities and Guojin Securities, have expressed optimism about Gujia Home's performance in 2025, with several giving "buy" ratings [6] - The company remains committed to its strategic directions of being a user-oriented, digital, and whole-home enterprise, focusing on retail transformation and efficiency [6]

Group 1 - The renovation and building materials sector experienced a slight increase, closing at 11,851.20 points with a growth rate of 1.52% [1] - Several stocks in the renovation and building materials sector saw price increases, with Mengbaihe leading at 7.67 CNY per share, up 10.04% [1] - Gujia Home Furnishing and Filinger also showed significant gains, closing at 25.07 CNY per share (up 10.00%) and 7.14 CNY per share (up 5.93%) respectively [1] Group 2 - Dongwu Securities reported a recent easing of trade war sentiments, leading to a rally in the export sector [2] - The domestic political bureau meeting focused on implementing existing policies while preparing new monetary policy tools and promoting service consumption [2] - The real estate chain is nearing the end of its clearing phase, with a significant improvement in supply dynamics and stable demand expected through 2025 [2] - The report anticipates accelerated consumption in home appliances and furniture by Q4 2024 and Q3 2025, driven by trade-in subsidies [2] - The report recommends focusing on undervalued consumer leaders and expansion-oriented companies, while also considering infrastructure projects in central and western regions if external demand declines [2]

[Table_Title] Q1 业绩抢眼，加快零售变革&拥抱 AI 升级 [Table_Title2] 顾家家居(603816) | [Table_DataInfo] 评级： | 买入 | 股票代码： | 603816 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上次评级： | 买入 | 52 周最高价/最低价： | 39.18/21.44 | | 目标价格： | | 总市值(亿) | 187.31 | | 最新收盘价： | 22.79 | 自由流通市值(亿) | 185.09 | | | | 自由流通股数(百万) | 812.17 | [Table_Summary] 事件概述 公司发布 2024 年年报及 2025 年一季度报。2024 年公司实现收入 184.80 亿元，同比-3.81%；归母净利润 14.17 亿元，同比-29.38%，扣非后归母净利润 13.01 亿元，同比-26.92%。分季度看，Q4 单季度营业收入 46.78 亿 元，同比-7.84%；归母净利润 0.58 亿元，同比-88.51%（Q4 减值影响利润，剔除减值影响我们预计利润降幅收 窄）。2025Q1 公司实现 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [7] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 18.48 billion RMB for 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 3.8%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.42 billion RMB, down 29.4% year-on-year, primarily due to asset and credit impairment losses of 306 million RMB [1] - The first quarter of 2025 showed strong performance with revenue of 4.91 billion RMB, up 12.9% year-on-year, and a net profit of 520 million RMB, up 23.5% year-on-year, driven by growth in both domestic and foreign trade [1] - The company expects a recovery in demand due to the implementation of domestic real estate and trade-in policies, which will support domestic sales performance [1][2] - The company is focusing on enhancing shareholder returns, achieving a dividend payout ratio of 80.06% in 2024 [3] Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company slightly adjusted its revenue forecast for domestic business for 2025-2026, with net profit estimates for 2025, 2026, and 2027 at 1.88 billion RMB, 2.08 billion RMB, and 2.29 billion RMB respectively [4] - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 2.28 RMB, 2.53 RMB, and 2.79 RMB respectively [4] Financial Metrics - The company’s gross margin for 2024 was 32.7%, a decrease of 0.11 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to a decline in the proportion of high-margin domestic business and increased end-user discounts [3] - The report indicates a projected price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 14 times for 2025, with a target price set at 31.92 RMB [4][8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of RMB 31.92 [7][8]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of RMB 18.48 billion for 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 3.8%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 1.42 billion, down 29.4% year-on-year, primarily due to asset and credit impairment losses of RMB 306 million [1][2]. - The first quarter of 2025 showed a strong start with revenue of RMB 4.91 billion, up 12.9% year-on-year, and a net profit of RMB 520 million, up 23.5% year-on-year, driven by growth in both domestic and foreign trade [1][2]. - The company expects a recovery in demand due to the implementation of domestic real estate policies and trade-in programs, which should support domestic sales performance [1][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company's gross margin decreased by 0.11 percentage points to 32.7%, attributed to a lower proportion of high-margin domestic business and increased end-user discounts [3]. - The company increased its shareholder return efforts, achieving a dividend payout ratio of 80.06% in 2024 [3]. Revenue Breakdown - Domestic trade revenue fell by 14.4% to RMB 9.36 billion in 2024, while foreign trade revenue increased by 11.3% to RMB 8.37 billion [2]. - Sofa sales grew by 9.14% to RMB 10.20 billion, driven by strong overseas demand, while bedroom product sales declined by 20.80% to RMB 3.25 billion [2]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company slightly lowered its revenue forecast for domestic business for 2025-2026 and introduced a profit forecast for 2027, expecting net profits of RMB 1.88 billion, RMB 2.08 billion, and RMB 2.29 billion for 2025-2027 respectively [4]. - The estimated EPS for 2025-2027 is RMB 2.28, RMB 2.53, and RMB 2.79, with a target PE of 14 times for 2025, leading to a target price of RMB 31.92 [4].

零售转型支撑内销逆势增长，外销多维度探寻可持续发展：内销方面，公司正持续推进零售转型，逐步 从原先的制造+批发的模式（推式—做产品、找经销商）转向零售导向运营的企业（拉式为主&推拉结 合），此前的区域零售中心的建设以及现在持续推进的仓配装服业务（目前覆盖率超50%）后续均将助 力公司内销持续逆势增长。外销方面，在目前中美贸易摩擦背景下，公司一方面明确加大力度拓展非美 市场客户以及自有品牌出海，另一方面，加快推动新的海外产能布局，确保外销业务可持续发展。整体 来看，公司内外销后续发展思路清晰，持续成长可期。 盈利预测、估值与评级 我们预计公司25-27 年EPS 分别为2.28/2.48/2.71 元，当前股价对应PE 为10/9/8 倍，维持"买入"评级。 风险提示 外销持续稳健增长，内销25Q1 预计恢复增长：分区域看，公司外销依托海外区域持续拓展叠加海外产 能优势，24 年收入同比增长11.3%至83.67 亿元。内销方面，2024 年地产整体销售、竣工偏弱，外部环 境令公司业绩承压，公司24 年内销收入同比-14.4%,其中24Q4 随着国补政策刺激，前端接单情况有所改 善，而出货节奏滞后预计使得报表端 ...