有色金属/工业金属 洛阳钼业（603993.SH） 一季度铜钴产量同比提升，积极落实高质量发展 2025 年 04 月 11 日 投资评级：买入（维持） | 日期 | 2025/4/10 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价(元) | 6.58 | | 一年最高最低(元) | 9.87/5.91 | | 总市值(亿元) | 1,414.65 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 1,155.83 | | 总股本(亿股) | 214.99 | | 流通股本(亿股) | 175.66 | | 近 3 个月换手率(%) | 77.8 | 股价走势图 数据来源：聚源 -32% -16% 0% 16% 32% 2024-04 2024-08 2024-12 洛阳钼业 沪深300 相关研究报告 《矿山板块表现稳健，归母净利同比 高 增 — 公 司 信 息 更 新 报 告 》 -2024.10.31 《铜钴产量同比高增，业绩创历史新 高—公司信息更新报告》-2024.8.26 《国内有色金属矿业巨头，铜钴项目 放量助成长—公司首次覆盖报告》 -2024.5.27 温佳贝（分析师） 冯伟珉（联系人） wenjiabei@ky ...

股票代码：603993 股票简称：洛阳钼业 编号：2025—020 特此公告。 2025年是实现战略目标达成和高质量发展的关键年，公司持续 加快推进扩产项目，实现资源利用价值最大化，为实现新的跨越奠 定坚实基础。 二、说明事项 洛阳栾川钼业集团股份有限公司董事会 洛阳栾川钼业集团股份有限公司 关于2025年1-3月经营情况的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误 导性陈述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承 担法律责任。 2025年1-3月，公司抓住市场有利时机，全力以赴稳产、增产， 公司主要产品铜、钴、铌产品产量同比分别增加15.65%、20.68%、 4.39%，同时受益于各产品销售价格同比全部上涨，公司主要经营指 标好于预期，实现年度良好开局。 | 产品 | 单位 | 2024年1-3月累计 | 2025年1-3月累计 | 变动比例 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铜金属 | 吨 | 147,494 | 170,574 | 15.65% | | 钴金属 | 吨 | 25,202 | 30,414 | 20.68% | | 钼 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for the stock price over the next six months [5]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 2130.29 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 14.37%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 135.32 billion yuan, up 64.03% year-on-year [1][4]. - The TFM and KFM copper-cobalt mines exceeded production expectations, with copper production reaching 650,200 tons, a 65.02% increase year-on-year, and cobalt production at 114,200 tons, up 105.6% year-on-year [2]. - The company is implementing a five-year plan aimed at significantly increasing production capacity, targeting annual copper production of 800,000 to 1,000,000 tons and cobalt production of 90,000 to 100,000 tons [3]. Financial Performance - The company's trading segment achieved a record profit margin of 2.08% in 2024, an increase from 1.99% in 2023, with IXM maintaining stable volume and profit growth [2]. - The estimated earnings per share for 2025 to 2027 are projected to be 0.76, 0.78, and 0.79 yuan, respectively, with a corresponding price-to-earnings ratio decreasing from 10.56 in 2024 to 8.28 in 2027 [4][11]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 2.55 yuan per 10 shares, resulting in a dividend payout ratio of approximately 40.32%, translating to a dividend yield of about 3.9% based on current A-share prices [3][4]. Production and Sales - The company’s copper sales volume for 2024 was 689,500 tons, a 76.89% increase year-on-year, while cobalt sales volume reached 108,900 tons, up 266.23% year-on-year [2]. - The production capacity for TFM and KFM has been fully realized, with TFM achieving an annual capacity of 450,000 tons of copper and 37,000 tons of cobalt, while KFM continues to exceed production targets [3]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from rising copper prices, with the average LME copper price projected to be 9,269 USD/ton in 2024, an 8.7% increase year-on-year [2]. - The company has committed to maintaining a high dividend payout ratio of over 40% from 2024 to 2026, reflecting a strong focus on shareholder returns [3].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the tungsten industry Core Insights - Tungsten is an irreplaceable material in various sectors such as industrial, military, and aerospace due to its unique physical and chemical properties [1][3] - The demand for tungsten materials and products is continuously growing, particularly in hard alloys, cutting tools, and photovoltaic tungsten wire applications [1] - China holds a significant position in the global tungsten market, with a resource reserve of 2.3 million tons, accounting for 52.27% of the world's total [11] - The government has implemented policies to support the development and utilization of tungsten resources, ensuring favorable conditions for industry growth [6][7] Industry Overview - Tungsten is classified as a strategic mineral in China, with its mining regulated to prevent over-exploitation [3][11] - The main applications of tungsten include mechanical processing, aerospace, defense, electronics, and transportation [3] - The report highlights the importance of tungsten in high-temperature and high-density applications, particularly in hard alloys and tungsten-based products [4] Market Demand and Supply - The production of tungsten concentrate in China is projected to reach 133,100 tons in 2025, reflecting a growth trend [15] - The APT (Ammonium Paratungstate) production is expected to increase to 132,000 tons in 2025, indicating a robust demand for tungsten compounds [16] - The tungsten material production is forecasted to grow significantly, reaching 20,600 tons in 2025, driven by advancements in technology and industrial applications [18] Key Enterprises - Xiamen Tungsten Co., Ltd. is a leading player in the tungsten industry, with a comprehensive production chain and a market share exceeding 70% in tungsten wire [26] - Zhongtung High-tech Materials Co., Ltd. specializes in hard alloys and has a significant market presence in cutting tools [32] - Luoyang Molybdenum Co., Ltd. is a major global producer of tungsten and other metals, with a revenue of 213.03 billion yuan in 2024 [36] Policy Environment - The Chinese government has prioritized tungsten as a strategic resource in its "14th Five-Year Plan," promoting industry consolidation and technological innovation [49] - Environmental regulations are expected to tighten, pushing the tungsten industry towards sustainable practices and resource recycling [51] - The report emphasizes the need for companies to adopt low-carbon technologies and improve resource utilization efficiency [51] Future Outlook - The demand for tungsten products is anticipated to grow due to the rapid development of high-tech industries such as new energy vehicles and aerospace [53] - The report suggests that traditional applications in mechanical manufacturing will remain stable, with hard alloys continuing to play a crucial role in various sectors [53]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for several companies in the non-ferrous metals sector, including Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Huayou Cobalt [5][6]. Core Viewpoints - The "reciprocal tariff" policy announced by the Trump administration has significantly increased global trade costs, leading to a substantial adjustment in commodity prices. However, domestic demand resilience is expected to offset external risks and support industrial metal prices [2][4]. - The report highlights that the domestic manufacturing PMI for March remained in the expansion zone at 50.5%, indicating strong internal demand that may cushion the impact of external pressures [2]. - Supply constraints in copper due to protests blocking access to key mining operations have exacerbated supply tightness, while domestic copper cable manufacturers have seen an increase in operating rates [2][3]. Summary by Sections Industrial Metals - The report notes significant price declines for industrial metals, with LME aluminum, copper, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin prices changing by -6.37%, -11.18%, -6.37%, -5.49%, -10.73%, and -2.48% respectively [1][12]. - The SMM copper concentrate import index reported a decrease of 2.26 USD/ton, reflecting ongoing supply tightness due to protests affecting key mining routes [2][39]. - The report recommends companies such as Luoyang Molybdenum, Zijin Mining, and Western Mining based on their performance and market conditions [2][5]. Energy Metals - Cobalt prices are expected to remain strong due to ongoing supply constraints from the Democratic Republic of Congo's export ban, while lithium prices have seen a decline amid stable downstream demand [3][84]. - Nickel prices are projected to continue rising due to tight supply conditions, despite some fluctuations in demand from the stainless steel sector [3][56]. Precious Metals - The report expresses optimism for precious metal prices, particularly gold, which has seen a rise due to increased safe-haven demand amid geopolitical tensions and inflation concerns [4][67]. - Silver prices are under pressure in the short term but are expected to rebound once economic conditions stabilize [4][67]. Company Earnings Forecasts - The report provides earnings forecasts and valuations for key companies, with EPS estimates for 2024E to 2026E showing growth for companies like Zijin Mining and Huayou Cobalt, with PE ratios indicating favorable valuations [5][6].

作者 | 独行侠 数据支持 | 勾股大 数 据（www.gogudata.com） 美国 "对等"关税震撼全球金融市场。隔夜，美股 三大股指均刷新近 5年来最大单日跌幅纪录 ， 美元指数一日暴跌近 2%，10年期美债收益 率 盘中一度跌破 4%，创下自去年10月以来的最低水平。 但黄金稳如泰山。 昨日， COMEX黄金下跌不足1%，现价超3130美元/盎司，较年初的2640美元仍上涨18.8%，引发关注。 此前疯狂的铜也崩了，昨日大跌 4.5%，但今年以来仍大涨19.75%（期间最大涨幅高达34%），压过黄金之表现。 那么，接下来的铜怎么看？又孕育着什么机会呢？ 01 今年 3月26日，美铜刷新历史新高，伦铜则超过10000美元，随后迎来一波剧烈调整。而此前轰轰烈烈的大涨，又是为何？我们不妨分阶段复 盘一下背后的驱动因素。 去年 11月初至12月，国际铜价迎来一波流畅下跌，回到当年8月担忧美国经济衰退时的水平。彼时，市场情绪悲观，交易 特朗普 上台，会兑 现竞选承诺，对外普征高额关税，扰动全球经济增长，进而影响铜需求。 翻年之后，铜价止跌快速上行（ 1月2日-1月16日），其核心逻辑是 市场对特朗普关税政策预 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Luoyang Molybdenum Co., Ltd. is "Buy" (maintained) [1][13] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 213 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 14%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 13.5 billion yuan, up 64% year-on-year [3][6] - The copper production for 2024 was 650,200 tons, exceeding initial guidance of 520,000 to 570,000 tons, with a significant increase in both production and sales of cobalt [6][7] - The company is entering a capacity release phase, with projected net profits for 2025-2027 expected to be 14.68 billion, 16.38 billion, and 17.42 billion yuan respectively [7][11] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Revenue for 2023 was 186.27 billion yuan, with projections of 211.86 billion yuan for 2025 and 220.73 billion yuan for 2027 [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 8.25 billion yuan in 2023, expected to rise to 14.68 billion yuan in 2025 and 17.42 billion yuan in 2027 [1] - Earnings per share (EPS) is projected to increase from 0.38 yuan in 2023 to 0.68 yuan in 2025 and 0.81 yuan in 2027 [1] Production and Sales - Copper production in 2024 reached 650,200 tons, a 65.02% increase year-on-year, while cobalt production was 114,200 tons, up 105.61% [6][7] - The average price of copper on the LME was $9,268 per ton in 2024, reflecting an 8.72% increase year-on-year [6] Profitability - The copper segment achieved a gross profit of 21.037 billion yuan in 2024, with a gross margin increase from 45.3% to 50.26% [6] - The tungsten segment saw a gross profit of 1.187 billion yuan, up 34.71% year-on-year, with a gross margin increase from 59.54% to 65.15% [6] Future Outlook - The company aims to produce 600,000 to 660,000 tons of copper and 100,000 to 120,000 tons of cobalt in the Democratic Republic of Congo by 2025 [7] - The projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 14.68 billion, 16.38 billion, and 17.42 billion yuan, with corresponding P/E ratios of 11.1, 10.0, and 9.4 [7][11]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported its 2024 performance, meeting expectations with significant growth in revenue and net profit driven by increased production and favorable pricing of key products [1][2]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 213.03 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.4%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 13.53 billion yuan, up 64.0% year-on-year [1]. - The fourth quarter of 2024 saw revenue of 58.27 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.8% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 12.2%, with a net profit of 5.26 billion yuan, down 9.43% year-on-year but up 84.2% quarter-on-quarter [1]. Production and Sales - In 2024, the company exceeded production guidance, ranking among the top ten copper producers globally, with significant increases in production across various metals: copper production reached 650,000 tons (up 55% year-on-year), cobalt production 114,000 tons (up 106% year-on-year) [2]. - The sales figures for 2024 included copper sales of 690,000 tons (up 77% year-on-year) and cobalt sales of 109,000 tons (up 266% year-on-year) [2]. Cost Management - The unit sales cost for copper in 2024 was 30,000 yuan per ton, a decrease of 12.5% year-on-year, while the unit sales cost for cobalt was 53,000 yuan per ton, down 26.9% year-on-year [2]. Future Outlook - For 2025, the company set production guidance for copper at 600,000 to 660,000 tons and for cobalt at 100,000 to 120,000 tons, with plans for further expansion and new projects [3]. - The company aims to achieve an annual copper production of 800,000 to 1,000,000 tons within the next five years as part of its strategic development goals [3]. Investment Rating - The company maintains a "buy" rating, with revised profit forecasts for 2025-2027 due to rising copper and cobalt prices, projecting net profits of 14.77 billion yuan, 16.77 billion yuan, and 18.06 billion yuan respectively for those years [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Luoyang Molybdenum Co., Ltd. [1] Core Insights - The company achieved a record performance in 2024, entering the top ten global copper producers, with significant increases in copper and cobalt production and sales [6][7] - The revenue for 2024 reached 213.03 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.4%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 13.53 billion yuan, up 64% year-on-year [6][7] - The company has set ambitious production targets for the next five years, aiming for annual copper production of 800,000 to 1,000,000 tons [6] Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue projections for 2025 are estimated at 214.3 billion yuan, with a slight growth of 0.6% year-on-year [5] - The net profit for 2025 is projected to be 14.77 billion yuan, reflecting a 9.1% increase compared to 2024 [5] - The gross profit margin is expected to improve to 18.0% in 2025, up from 16.5% in 2024 [5] Production and Cost Insights - In 2024, the company produced 650,000 tons of copper, a 55% increase year-on-year, and 114,000 tons of cobalt, a 106% increase year-on-year [6] - The unit sales cost for copper in 2024 was 30,000 yuan per ton, down 12.5% year-on-year, while cobalt's unit sales cost was 53,000 yuan per ton, down 26.9% year-on-year [6] Future Outlook - The company plans to expand its production capacity, with existing projects reaching full capacity and new expansion projects in preparation [6] - The updated profit forecasts for 2025-2027 are 14.77 billion yuan, 16.77 billion yuan, and 18.06 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 11, 10, and 9 [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative price increase of over 20% compared to the market benchmark within the next six months [8][18]. Core Insights - The company achieved a record high production output in 2024, leading to better-than-expected financial performance, with a revenue of 213.03 billion yuan, up 14.37% year-on-year, and a net profit of 13.53 billion yuan, up 64.03% year-on-year [3][4]. - The cobalt segment is expected to see positive profit growth in 2025, despite a projected decline in sales volume due to policy changes in the Democratic Republic of Congo [5][6]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 213,029 million yuan and a net profit of 13,532 million yuan, with a significant increase in net profit margin [3][7]. - The company’s copper production reached 650,000 tons, a 55% increase year-on-year, positioning it among the top ten global producers [4]. - The average copper price in 2024 reached a historical high of 9,268.9 USD/ton, reflecting an 8.7% increase year-on-year [5]. Production and Inventory - The company successfully ramped up production at major projects, achieving a total copper production capacity of 600,000 tons in the Democratic Republic of Congo [4]. - As of the end of 2024, the company held significant inventories, including 100,000 tons of copper and 42,000 tons of cobalt [4]. Profit Forecast - The profit forecast for 2025-2027 anticipates net profits of 14,875 million yuan, 17,150 million yuan, and 19,942 million yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.69, 0.80, and 0.93 yuan per share [6][12].