股票代码：603993 股票简称：洛阳钼业 编号：2024—053 洛阳栾川钼业集团股份有限公司 关于对外担保计划的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导 性陈述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法 律责任。 重要内容提示： 一、担保审批及授权情况 2024年6月7日，公司2023年年度股东大会审议通过《关于本公司 | 序 | 被担保方 | 与公司关系 | 计划担保 | 担保合同 | 实际担保 | 担保 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 号 | | | 金额 | 金额 | 发生额 | 期限 | | 1 | IXM SA | 全资子公司 | 1,250 万 | 1,250 万 | 0 | 2 个月 | | | | | 美元 | 美元 | | | | 2 | 洛阳栾川钼业集团钨业有 | 全资子公司 | 2 亿元 | 1.5 亿元 | 1.5 亿元 | 6 个月 | | | 限公司 | | 人民币 | 人民币 | 人民币 | | | 3 | 洛阳鼎鸿贸易有限公司 | 全资子公司 | 5 亿元 | 3.8 亿元 ...

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on Luoyang Molybdenum with a "Buy" rating and a target price of 9.8 RMB per share, based on a 17x PE multiple for 2024 [1][3] Core Views - Luoyang Molybdenum is a global mining giant with a diversified portfolio of world-class assets, including copper, cobalt, molybdenum, tungsten, and niobium. It is the largest cobalt producer globally and a leading phosphate fertilizer producer in Brazil [1] - The company is entering a new phase of international expansion, aiming to double its production capacity over the next five years as part of its "Three-Step" strategy [1] - Copper prices are expected to rise steadily due to tight supply and growing demand, while cobalt prices are expected to rebound after a period of oversupply [1] - The TFM and KFM copper-cobalt projects are entering a phase of concentrated production release, with significant growth in output and profitability expected [1] Financial Performance and Valuation - Revenue is projected to grow from 186.27 billion RMB in 2023 to 222.90 billion RMB in 2026, with a CAGR of 5.85% [2] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from 8.25 billion RMB in 2023 to 15.90 billion RMB in 2026, with a CAGR of 10.08% [2] - The company's PE ratio is forecasted to decline from 14.08x in 2024 to 11.01x in 2026, indicating improving valuation metrics [2] Copper Market Outlook - Copper supply is constrained by declining capital expenditures, resource depletion, and limited scrap copper availability, while demand is supported by traditional sectors like power grid investments and emerging sectors like renewable energy [1][26] - The global copper market is expected to face a growing supply-demand gap, with copper prices projected to rise steadily in the medium to long term [26][53] Cobalt Market Outlook - Cobalt prices are expected to remain weak in the short term due to oversupply from the Democratic Republic of Congo and Indonesia, but demand is expected to grow at an 11% CAGR from 2023 to 2030, driven by the electric vehicle battery sector [1][57] - Luoyang Molybdenum has become the world's largest cobalt producer, surpassing Glencore, with a 24% global market share in 2023 [62] Production and Capacity Expansion - Luoyang Molybdenum's copper and cobalt production capacity has doubled, with copper output reaching 600,000 tons/year and cobalt output reaching 87,000 tons/year [1] - The company plans to further increase copper production to 800,000-1,000,000 tons/year and cobalt production to 90,000-100,000 tons/year over the next five years [1] Competitive Advantages - The company has leveraged counter-cyclical acquisitions to secure world-class mineral resources at low costs, giving it a competitive edge in resource development [1] - Its integrated mining and trading model, through the IXM platform, enhances operational efficiency and extends the value chain, creating synergies across its business segments [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][3]. Core Insights - The company has achieved significant growth in copper and diamond production, laying a solid foundation for its five-year development goals [3][15]. - The company reported a revenue of 154.8 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, representing an 18% year-on-year increase, and a net profit of 8.3 billion yuan, up 239% year-on-year [9][10]. - The production costs for copper and diamonds have decreased significantly, contributing to improved profit margins [27][31]. Performance Summary - **Revenue and Profit**: In Q1-Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 154.8 billion yuan, with a net profit of 8.3 billion yuan and a non-net profit of 8.6 billion yuan, marking increases of 18%, 239%, and 531% respectively [9][10]. - **Production Volumes**: The company produced 476,000 tons of copper, a 78.2% increase year-on-year, and 85,000 tons of diamonds, a 127.4% increase year-on-year [15][34]. - **Cost Management**: The production cost for copper was 31,000 yuan per ton, down 9.8% from the previous year, while diamond production costs decreased by 26.1% [27][30]. Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company forecasts net profits of 11.7 billion yuan, 13.2 billion yuan, and 14.8 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, maintaining the profit estimates for 2024-2026 [3][4]. - The report emphasizes the strong growth potential and quality of growth, supported by effective cost control and a declining debt ratio [3][4][19].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 154.75 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 17.5%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 8.27 billion yuan, up 238.6% year-on-year [1] - The copper segment is the main source of profit, contributing 72% of the mining business's gross profit [2] - The company expects copper production in 2024 to exceed the guidance provided in the 2023 annual report, with a target of 520,000 to 570,000 tons [2][3] - The company has initiated expansion projects at TFM and KFM, with promising exploration results [3] - The report is optimistic about copper prices continuing to rise, particularly from Q4 2024 onwards due to tightening supply [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 51.94 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.5% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 8.4% [1] - The gross profit for the mining segment was 22.34 billion yuan, with the copper segment contributing 16.08 billion yuan, accounting for 57.7% of the company's total gross profit [2] Production Outlook - The company produced 476,000 tons of copper in the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 78.2% [2] - The company has set a five-year plan aiming for an annual copper production of 800,000 to 1 million tons by 2028 [3] Industry Perspective - The report anticipates a tightening supply of copper and scrap copper starting in the second half of 2024, which is expected to positively impact copper prices [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report forecasts net profits of 11.90 billion yuan, 15.63 billion yuan, and 16.67 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 14, 11, and 10 times [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a significant increase in net profit for the first three quarters of 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 238.62% [2] - The revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 reached 154.76 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 17.52% [2] - The production of copper and cobalt has increased significantly due to the commissioning of new projects in the Democratic Republic of Congo, with copper revenue growing by 150.12% and cobalt revenue by 636.85% [2] - The company is expected to maintain strong profit growth, with projected net profits of 118.3 billion yuan, 133.1 billion yuan, and 148.6 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [2] Financial Summary - For 2024, the company is expected to achieve a revenue of 199.47 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 7.1% [3] - The projected net profit for 2024 is 11.83 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 43.3% [3] - The gross margin is expected to improve to 15.8% in 2024, up from 9.7% in 2023 [3] - The company's return on equity (ROE) is projected to be 17.5% in 2024, compared to 13.9% in 2023 [3] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to be 13.88 in 2024, indicating a slight increase from 13.68 in 2023 [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company has shown strong revenue growth, with a 17.5% year-on-year increase in revenue for the first three quarters of 2024, reaching 154.75 billion yuan [3] - The net profit attributable to shareholders increased significantly by 238.6% year-on-year, amounting to 8.27 billion yuan for the same period [3] - The copper production exceeded expectations, with a year-on-year increase of 78.2%, and sales increased by 160.98% [4] - The company is entering a capacity release phase, with projected net profits for 2024-2026 expected to be 11.31 billion, 13.96 billion, and 16.70 billion yuan respectively [6] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 2022 was 172.99 billion yuan, with a forecasted increase to 203.09 billion yuan in 2024, representing a growth rate of 9% [1] - Net profit for 2022 was 6.07 billion yuan, expected to rise to 11.31 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a growth rate of 37% [1] - Earnings per share (EPS) is projected to increase from 0.38 yuan in 2023 to 0.52 yuan in 2024 [1] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to decrease from 20.3 in 2023 to 14.8 in 2024, indicating improved valuation [1] Production and Pricing Insights - The average price of copper on the LME for the first three quarters of 2024 was $9,156 per ton, a year-on-year increase of 6.72% [4][11] - The average price of tungsten (APT) increased by 11.78% year-on-year, reaching 200,000 yuan per ton [4][11] - The company’s copper production is projected to exceed initial guidance of 520,000 to 570,000 tons for the year [4] Market Position and Future Outlook - The company is positioned to become a leading global resource enterprise, with plans to achieve annual copper production of 800,000 to 1,000,000 tons and cobalt production of 90,000 to 100,000 tons over the next five years [4][6] - The company has secured a long-term power supply agreement for a 200 MW hydropower station, which will support its production capacity expansion [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a significant increase in net profit attributable to shareholders, with a year-on-year growth of 238.62% for the first three quarters of 2024 [3] - The revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 reached 154.755 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 17.52% [3] - The company benefits from increased sales in its copper and cobalt business in the Democratic Republic of Congo, alongside effective cost management [3] - The projected net profits for 2024-2026 are 11.813 billion yuan, 13.496 billion yuan, and 16.618 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.55, 0.62, and 0.77 yuan [3] Financial Performance Summary - The company achieved a net profit of 8.273 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, a 238.62% increase year-on-year [3] - The operating cash flow net amount increased by 71.10% to 17.281 billion yuan [5] - The copper production from the Congo projects reached 476,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 78.20%, while cobalt production increased by 127.39% to 84,700 tons [4] - The company’s free cash flow surged by 874% to 12.41 billion yuan [5] Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company’s revenue is projected to grow from 198.594 billion yuan in 2024 to 210.207 billion yuan in 2026, with a year-on-year growth rate of 5.4% in 2026 [6] - The gross profit margin is expected to improve from 14.7% in 2024 to 17.6% in 2026 [6] - The net profit margin is projected to increase from 5.9% in 2024 to 7.9% in 2026 [6] Market Position and Strategy - The company’s mining segment has shown stable performance, with the TFM and KFM projects in the Democratic Republic of Congo reaching full production capacity [4] - The trading segment has improved operational quality, achieving a year-on-year growth of 61.40% to 920 million yuan [4] - The company is focusing on optimizing its business lines by concentrating on high-margin products and reducing the volume of lower-margin products [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][3]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 154.8 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 17.5%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 8.27 billion yuan, up 239% year-on-year [1][10]. - The significant growth in performance is attributed to a substantial increase in copper and cobalt sales, alongside rising commodity prices, despite some losses from expenses and taxes [1][10]. - The company has exceeded production targets for copper and cobalt, with cobalt production reaching 130.31% of its annual target by the third quarter [1][12]. Summary by Sections 1. Event - The company released its Q3 2024 report on October 28, 2024, showing strong performance in revenue and net profit [1][5]. 2. Performance Analysis - Revenue for Q3 2024 was 51.94 billion yuan, a 15.5% increase year-on-year but an 8.4% decrease quarter-on-quarter [1][9]. - The net profit for Q3 2024 was 2.856 billion yuan, reflecting a 64.12% increase year-on-year but a 14.64% decrease quarter-on-quarter [1][9]. 3. Production and Sales - The company’s copper and cobalt production in the first three quarters of 2024 was 476,000 tons and 84,700 tons, respectively, marking increases of 78.18% and 127.33% year-on-year [1][12]. - The production of molybdenum and tungsten remained stable, with slight declines in molybdenum output [1][13]. 4. Future Outlook - The company aims to achieve copper production of 800,000 to 1 million tons and cobalt production of 90,000 to 100,000 tons by 2028, with a projected CAGR of 16.5% for copper and 11.3% for cobalt from 2023 to 2028 [1][10]. - Expected net profits for 2024-2026 are projected at 11.134 billion, 13.519 billion, and 14.212 billion yuan, with corresponding EPS of 0.52, 0.63, and 0.66 yuan [1][2]. 5. Investment Recommendation - The report suggests that with the ongoing ramp-up of projects in the Democratic Republic of Congo, the company is well-positioned for growth, maintaining a "Buy" rating [1][10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3] Core Views - The company's performance in the first three quarters of 2024 has significantly improved due to the ramp-up of overseas core mines, with a year-on-year revenue increase of 17.52% to CNY 154.755 billion and a net profit increase of 238.62% to CNY 8.273 billion [1] - The copper production for the first three quarters reached 476,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 78.20%, indicating strong operational performance [1] - The report highlights the expectation of future production increases from ongoing projects, with potential annual copper production reaching 1 million tons by 2028 [1] Financial Performance Summary - For Q3 2024, the company reported a revenue of CNY 51.936 billion, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 15.53%, and a net profit of CNY 2.856 billion, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 64.12% [1] - The average international copper price increased by 6.4% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2024, contributing to revenue growth despite a slight decline in Q3 [1] - The projected revenues for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are CNY 197.5 billion, CNY 207.3 billion, and CNY 216.9 billion respectively, with corresponding net profits of CNY 11.064 billion, CNY 12.459 billion, and CNY 14.307 billion [2][10] Market Outlook - The report expresses optimism regarding the macroeconomic outlook in the U.S., which is expected to positively influence industrial metal prices, including copper [1] - The anticipated increase in credit scale for "white list" projects in China is expected to support demand for copper, further enhancing the company's profitability [1] - The company is expected to benefit from high business concentration in the copper and cobalt sectors, which will solidify its profit margins as production increases [1]