Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the significant rise in copper prices, reaching a historical high of $12,159 per ton, with an annual increase of over 37%, potentially marking the largest annual gain since 2009 [1][3] - The recent surge in copper prices is primarily driven by macroeconomic factors, including the cooling of the US CPI in November, which strengthens expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, thereby reducing holding costs for copper and other non-ferrous metals [3] - Geopolitical risks and supply concerns, particularly regarding potential tariffs on copper by the Trump administration, are contributing to the upward pressure on copper prices, with global copper inventories expected to decline to critical low levels [3] Group 2 - The demand for copper is expected to grow significantly due to the AI wave, with data centers becoming a major consumer of copper, projected to consume approximately 50,000 tons by 2025, increasing to 130,000 tons by 2028, representing a compound annual growth rate of 40% [5] - The performance of copper-related stocks has been strong, with an average increase of 8.58% in December, and several stocks, including Jincheng Mining and Baiyin Nonferrous Metals, seeing cumulative gains exceeding 10% [7] - In terms of financial performance, copper sector companies reported a total net profit of 69.005 billion yuan for the first three quarters, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 46.18%, with several companies like Pengxin Resources turning losses into profits [9]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that Luoyang Molybdenum is complying with the cobalt export quota system implemented by the Democratic Republic of the Congo [1] - Luoyang Molybdenum has been allocated a cobalt export quota of 6,650 tons for the fourth quarter of 2025 according to the details disclosed by the DRC [1] - The company has initiated the export process, with the first batch of goods expected to be shipped soon [1]

晨会纪要（2025/12/24） 编辑人 022-28451618 SAC NO：S1150511010016 cuijian@bhzq.com 崔健 渤海证券研究所晨会纪要（2025.12.24） 固定收益研究 成交规模增长，信用利差走阔——信用债周报 公司研究 享西部资源红利，乘铜市景气东风——西部矿业（601168）深度报告 行业研究 美国通胀缓和，金价获得支撑——金属行业周报 证 券 研 究 报 告 晨 会 纪 要 请务必阅读正文之后的声明 渤海证券股份有限公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 1 of 6 晨会纪要（2025/12/24） 中央和地方持续积极优化房地产政策，托举政策持续发力，积极释放刚性和改善性住房需求，对推动房地 产止跌回稳发挥了积极的作用。尽管当前房地产市场还处在新旧模式转换时期，但随着稳楼市各项政策显 效，房地产市场继续朝着止跌回稳的方向迈进。基于城市发展正从大规模增量扩张阶段转向存量提质增效 为主的阶段这一论断，下阶段的目标是要积极构建房地产发展新模式，坚持长短结合、标本兼治，持续用 力推动房地产市场高质量发展，后续政策出台的节奏和力度值得期待。地产债方面，销售复苏进程将对债 券估值 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Luoyang Molybdenum Co., Ltd. is experiencing significant trading activity, with notable fluctuations in financing and margin trading as of December 23 [1] - On December 23, Luoyang Molybdenum's stock price fell by 0.38%, with a trading volume of 3.965 billion yuan, and a net financing outflow of approximately 52.73 million yuan [1] - As of December 23, the total balance of margin trading for Luoyang Molybdenum reached 3.376 billion yuan, indicating a high level of financing activity compared to the past year [1] Group 2 - Luoyang Molybdenum Co., Ltd. was established on December 22, 1999, and listed on October 9, 2012, primarily engaged in the mining, processing, and trading of rare metals such as molybdenum, tungsten, and gold [2] - The company's revenue composition includes 48.56% from refined metal product trading, 38.31% from concentrate product trading, and smaller contributions from copper (27.14%), cobalt (6.04%), and other metals [2] - For the period from January to September 2025, Luoyang Molybdenum reported a revenue of 145.485 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.99%, while net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 72.61% to 14.280 billion yuan [2] Group 3 - As of September 30, 2025, the top ten circulating shareholders of Luoyang Molybdenum include Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited as the fourth largest shareholder, increasing its holdings by 47.472 million shares [3] - The fifth largest shareholder, Huaxia SSE 50 ETF, reduced its holdings by 3.6543 million shares, while the sixth largest, Huatai-PB CSI 300 ETF, decreased by 5.1787 million shares [3] - E Fund CSI 300 ETF entered as a new shareholder, holding 86.4742 million shares [3]

12月23日，现货黄金价格再创历史新高，引发金矿股集体上涨。 山东黄金（600547.SH）涨幅领先，上涨近7%。招金矿业（01818.HK）上涨2.79%。灵宝黄金 （03330.HK）上涨0.53%。 然而，上述这几家金矿股龙头依然远没有回到10月初的高点，部分股价相差依然有大约10%左右。黄金 股ETF（517520）也依然落后于黄金现货的走势。 在第一财经记者采访的业内人士看来，这些金矿股龙头未创出新高，一方面是因为有市场资金担忧资源 股经营成本压力，另一方面可能是大量金矿股增发股本加快并购步伐，增加了投资者的选择，改变了供 应和需求关系。 长远来看，考虑到美联储等央行依然维持宽松政策，黄金本身依然值得看高一线。不过，金矿股走势如 何，则要视每家具体经营状况而定。 为何金矿股落后了？ 奶酪基金投资经理胡坤超对第一财经记者表示，黄金创出历史新高，但是黄金龙头股并未新高，背后体 现的是资金更愿意用黄金ETF快速表达宏观预期。 "由于股价短期涨幅较快，估值也有较为明显提升，交易拥挤度快速提升，市场资金对资源股应对成本 等压力，未来盈利兑现相对谨慎。长期看，黄金股股价走势跟金价走势具备趋同性，但是黄金矿业股的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company, Luoyang Molybdenum Co., Ltd., is a significant player in the mining industry, particularly in the production of cobalt, copper, and other precious metals, with a focus on expanding its gold business and maintaining a diversified portfolio of mining operations [2][3][7]. Company Overview - Luoyang Molybdenum is the second-largest cobalt producer globally, with its cobalt products, specifically cobalt hydroxide, sold in international markets [2]. - The company operates in the non-ferrous metal mining sector, engaging in the mining, smelting, and deep processing of various metals, including molybdenum, tungsten, cobalt, niobium, and phosphorus [2]. - It ranks among the top five molybdenum producers and is the largest tungsten producer, as well as a leading copper producer and the second-largest niobium producer globally [2]. Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, the company reported a revenue of 145.485 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.99%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 72.61% to 14.280 billion yuan [8]. - The company has distributed a total of 21.562 billion yuan in dividends since its A-share listing, with 10.576 billion yuan distributed over the past three years [9]. Production and Growth Prospects - The company holds an 80% stake in the NPM copper-gold mine in Australia, with gold production guidance for 2023 set at 25,000 to 27,000 ounces, representing a year-on-year increase of 56% to 69% [3]. - In 2025, the company successfully completed the acquisition of Ecuador's Odin Mining (KGHM Gold Mine) and is advancing development with plans to commence production by 2029 [3]. Shareholder Information - As of September 30, 2025, the number of shareholders increased to 304,200, reflecting a growth of 28.08% compared to the previous period [8]. - Major shareholders include Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited and various ETFs, with notable changes in their holdings over the reporting period [9].

Market Overview - The A-share market saw a collective rise in the three major indices, with the Shanghai Composite Index up over 1% and the ChiNext Index up over 3%, with a total trading volume of 1.81 trillion yuan, an increase of 87 billion yuan from the previous day [1] - The market surge is attributed to three main factors: strong performance of brokerage stocks, significant trading activity in broad-based ETFs, and comments from a former Japanese central bank official opposing early interest rate hikes, easing global liquidity concerns [1] Sector Performance - The optical module sector experienced a strong breakout, with New Yi Sheng and Zhong Ji Xu Chuang topping the A-share capital inflow rankings. The ChiNext AI ETF (159363) surged 5% with a net subscription of 162 million units [1][6] - The "anti-involution" theme also performed well, with lithium carbonate futures seeing a sudden spike, leading to a 3.48% increase in the Chemical ETF (516020) and a 3.27% rise in the Nonferrous Metals ETF (159876) [2] Institutional Insights - Investment institutions are optimistic about the A-share market transitioning from a structural bull market to a more comprehensive bull market by 2026, with expectations of a gradual recovery in earnings [3][4] - J.P. Morgan highlighted that earnings will be key to the upward momentum of Chinese assets next year, with over one-third of sub-sectors currently in the revenue expansion quadrant [4] Key Stocks and ETFs - The top-performing stocks included Lian Te Technology, New Yi Sheng, and Tian Fu Communication, with significant price increases [6][7] - The Chemical ETF (516020) and Nonferrous Metals ETF (159876) have seen substantial inflows, indicating strong market interest in these sectors [13][19] Lithium Market Dynamics - The lithium carbonate futures market saw a dramatic increase, with prices nearing 109,860 yuan per ton, driven by supply-demand dynamics and regulatory changes affecting mining licenses [23] - The storage industry in China is expected to grow significantly over the next 3-5 years, driven by AI and data center demands, which will boost lithium demand [15] Future Outlook - Looking ahead to 2026, the chemical industry is expected to see improved profitability and dividend capabilities, with a focus on the "anti-involution" and global AI demand cycles [17] - The nonferrous metals sector is anticipated to benefit from supply-demand imbalances and geopolitical tensions, making it a core asset allocation target for the medium to long term [24]

Core Viewpoint - Luoyang Molybdenum Co., Ltd. has shown significant stock price appreciation and strong financial performance, indicating potential investment opportunities in the company. Group 1: Stock Performance - On December 23, Luoyang Molybdenum's stock rose by 2.04%, reaching 19.00 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 2.09 billion CNY and a turnover rate of 0.64%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 406.49 billion CNY [1] - The stock has increased by 197.01% year-to-date, with a 5-day increase of 8.57%, a 20-day increase of 18.97%, and a 60-day increase of 49.49% [1] - The company has appeared on the "Dragon and Tiger List" once this year, with the most recent occurrence on October 9 [1] Group 2: Company Overview - Luoyang Molybdenum, established on December 22, 1999, and listed on October 9, 2012, is primarily engaged in the mining, selection, deep processing, trading, and research of precious metals such as molybdenum, tungsten, and gold [2] - The company's revenue composition includes 48.56% from refined metal product trading, 38.31% from concentrate product trading, and smaller contributions from copper (27.14%), cobalt (6.04%), molybdenum (3.12%), and others [2] - The company is classified under the non-ferrous metals industry, specifically in industrial metals and copper, and is associated with concepts such as niobium, non-ferrous copper, gold stocks, cobalt-nickel, and scarce resources [2] Group 3: Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, Luoyang Molybdenum reported a revenue of 145.49 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 5.99%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 72.61% to 14.28 billion CNY [2] - The company has distributed a total of 21.56 billion CNY in dividends since its A-share listing, with 10.58 billion CNY distributed over the past three years [3] Group 4: Shareholder Information - As of September 30, 2025, the number of shareholders reached 304,200, an increase of 28.08% from the previous period [2] - Major shareholders include Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited, holding 695 million shares, and various ETFs, with some increasing and others decreasing their holdings [3]

Core Viewpoint - The report from HuLong Securities indicates a sustained increase in the metal industry due to geopolitical tensions, global economic slowdown, and rising resource nationalism, maintaining a "recommended" rating for the sector [2]. Group 1: Price Trends - In the first 11 months of 2025, the average monthly price of gold increased by 40.75% compared to the full year of 2024, silver rose by 33.69%, copper by 7.25%, and aluminum by 7.96% [2][3]. - The performance of the non-ferrous metal industry index significantly outperformed the CSI 300 index, with a year-to-date increase of 72.81% compared to 18.49% for the latter [2]. Group 2: Industry Performance - The non-ferrous metal industry achieved a revenue of 2.82 trillion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 9.3% [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 151.29 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 41.55% [2]. Group 3: Gold Market Insights - The demand for gold is driven by various factors, with ETF investments replacing central bank purchases as the main force behind price increases, indicating a strong investment demand [3]. - Gold is increasingly viewed as a safe-haven asset, reinforcing its role in pricing global uncertainties [3]. Group 4: Copper Market Insights - There is an expectation of a supply-demand mismatch in the copper market, with geopolitical factors and supply chain security concerns contributing to supply tightness [4]. - The market anticipates a turning point in the supply-demand relationship for refined copper around 2026, with a positive outlook for demand in the U.S. and China [4].

Group 1 - The price of Chinese black tungsten concentrate (≥65% domestic) has risen to 449,600 CNY per ton, with a daily increase of 19,900 CNY, representing a growth of approximately 4.63%, and a year-to-date increase of 214.87% [1] - Tungsten powder spot average price reported at 1,090,000 CNY per ton, with a significant daily increase of 72,500 CNY, reflecting a rise of about 7.1%, continuing the strong price trend observed throughout the year [1] - From 2025 to 2028, global tungsten production is expected to increase from 82,800 tons to 89,900 tons, while demand is projected to rise from 102,100 tons to 110,000 tons, indicating a persistent supply-demand gap [1] Group 2 - Companies such as Xiamen Tungsten (600549) and China Tungsten High-Tech (000657) are forecasted to see a year-on-year net profit increase of over 40% in 2025, while Luoyang Molybdenum (603993) and Zhangyuan Tungsten (002378) are expected to have net profit growth exceeding 30% [1] - Guangsheng Nonferrous (600259) is anticipated to achieve a turnaround from loss to profit [1] - The marginal demand for tungsten-based new materials in new application fields such as AI, controllable nuclear fusion, and new infrastructure will provide long-term support for tungsten prices [1]