Core Viewpoint - Luoyang Molybdenum Co., Ltd. shows significant trading activity with high financing and margin levels, indicating strong investor interest despite a slight decline in stock price on September 15 [1][2]. Financing Summary - On September 15, Luoyang Molybdenum had a financing buy amount of 278 million yuan and a financing repayment of 265 million yuan, resulting in a net financing purchase of 12.51 million yuan [1]. - The total financing and margin balance reached 2.709 billion yuan, with a financing balance of 2.687 billion yuan, accounting for 1.15% of the circulating market value, which is above the 90th percentile level over the past year [1]. - Margin trading on the same day included a repayment of 250,500 shares and a sale of 32,600 shares, with a selling amount of 435,200 yuan, while the margin balance stood at 22.58 million yuan, also exceeding the 90th percentile level over the past year [1]. Company Overview - Luoyang Molybdenum, established on December 22, 1999, and listed on October 9, 2012, primarily engages in the mining, selection, deep processing, trading, and research of rare metals such as molybdenum, tungsten, and gold [2]. - The company's revenue composition includes refined metal product trading (48.56%), concentrate product trading (38.31%), copper (27.14%), cobalt (6.04%), molybdenum (3.12%), phosphorus (2.23%), niobium (1.88%), tungsten (1.17%), and others (0.11%) [2]. - For the first half of 2025, Luoyang Molybdenum reported operating revenue of 94.773 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.83%, while net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 60.07% to 8.671 billion yuan [2]. Dividend and Shareholding Summary - Since its A-share listing, Luoyang Molybdenum has distributed a total of 21.562 billion yuan in dividends, with 10.576 billion yuan distributed over the past three years [3]. - As of June 30, 2025, the company had 237,500 shareholders, a decrease of 15.95% from the previous period, with an average of 0 circulating shares per shareholder [2][3]. - Among the top ten circulating shareholders, Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited holds 648 million shares, an increase of 6.949 million shares, while various ETFs have also increased their holdings [3].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - The current cycle for the non-ferrous metals industry is at the brink of a new upward trend, positioned at the tail end of an economic downturn. Global economic data suggests a potential bottoming out and stabilization in major economies next year, which could lead to a new liquidity easing cycle, typically resulting in commodity prices entering a trend upward within two months [2][5]. Key Insights on Cobalt and Silver - Cobalt and silver are prioritized as investment choices due to their potential for significant price increases. Cobalt, primarily sourced from the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), accounts for approximately 76% of global supply. Export restrictions since February 2023 are expected to tighten supply, with historical price surges exceeding 200% during similar conditions. Current cobalt prices are around 270,000 CNY, with projections to rise to 350,000 CNY or even above 400,000 CNY [6][7]. - Silver is viewed as a precious metal with considerable upside potential. The current market for silver is relatively restrained, but as the economy stabilizes and demand increases, silver is expected to show greater elasticity. The gold-silver ratio is currently around 85, with expectations to correct to below 60, indicating a potential price increase of over 50% for silver [6][8]. Supply-Side Disturbances - Supply-side disturbances have significantly impacted the non-ferrous metals market, with various restrictions leading to price increases for metals like copper, aluminum, tungsten, and rare earths. Factors include policy export controls, smelting area restrictions, and decreased logistics efficiency due to global fragmentation [3][5]. Cobalt Market Dynamics - The cobalt market is entering a phase of sustained supply-demand tension, with expectations of a continuous shortfall starting in 2025. The strategic nature of cobalt, along with its current market conditions, positions it similarly to rare earths and tungsten as a critical investment [7][10]. Silver Market Characteristics - The silver market exhibits distinct phase characteristics. During periods of economic weakness, the gold-silver ratio tends to hover around 90. However, with economic recovery, industrial demand is expected to significantly improve the ratio, leading to substantial price increases for silver [8][11]. Investment Strategies - For cobalt, focus on companies involved in copper-cobalt or nickel-copper mining, such as Luoyang Molybdenum, which has a production estimate of 110,000 to 120,000 tons for 2024. Despite potential production cuts due to quota systems, price increases will likely enhance overall performance [10]. - In the silver sector, it is recommended to target lead-zinc mining companies that report high silver yields in their annual reports, as well as lead-zinc smelting enterprises that possess significant silver refining capacity [9]. Copper Market Insights - The copper market is currently influenced by a safety incident at the Grasberg mine, which may lead to a temporary production halt. Demand remains robust, but purchasing enthusiasm declines when prices exceed 9,700 USD. The supply-demand balance is still relatively stable, making a trend upward unlikely until global economic stabilization occurs [4][12]. Aluminum Sector Highlights - The electrolytic aluminum sector is experiencing a favorable trading environment, with no new production expected from domestic power companies. This situation is likely to enhance dividend payouts from leading companies such as Zhonglv, Hongqiao, and Shenhuo Tianshan [14]. Gold Market Outlook - The short-term outlook for gold is influenced by expectations of interest rate cuts, with potential price increases contingent on economic data and the extent of rate reductions. A favorable combination of rate cuts and economic performance could significantly benefit gold prices [15].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for gold, copper, aluminum, tin, and antimony industries [11]. Core Views - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates, which will support the price of gold [11]. - Supply disruptions in copper and the upcoming demand season are anticipated to strengthen copper prices [11]. - The aluminum industry shows signs of demand recovery, with expectations of price stability [11]. - Tin supply tightness is expected to support tin prices [11]. - Antimony prices are projected to remain weak in the short term but may strengthen in the long term due to supply constraints [11]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector (Shenwan) has shown significant performance with a 1-month increase of 15.1%, 3-month increase of 35.2%, and a 12-month increase of 82.4% [3]. 2. Precious Metals Market Data - Gold prices reached $3651.10 per ounce, up by $56.55 (1.57%) from September 5 [4]. - Silver prices increased to $42.26 per ounce, up by $1.52 (3.72%) from September 5 [4]. 3. Copper and Aluminum Data - LME copper closed at $10068 per ton, up by $121 (1.22%) from September 5 [6]. - Domestic aluminum prices rose to 21050 RMB per ton, an increase of 370 RMB from September 5 [9]. 4. Tin and Antimony Data - Domestic refined tin prices increased to 274570 RMB per ton, up by 2710 RMB (1.00%) from September 5 [10]. - Antimony prices decreased to 176500 RMB per ton, down by 1000 RMB (0.56%) from September 5 [11]. 5. Recommended Stocks - Recommended stocks in the gold sector include Zhongjin Gold, Shandong Gold, and China National Gold International [12]. - In the copper sector, recommended stocks include Zijin Mining and Western Mining [12]. - For aluminum, recommended stocks are Shenhuo Co. and Yunnan Aluminum [12]. - In the tin sector, recommended stocks include Xiyang Co. and Huaxi Nonferrous [12].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is the performance and characteristics of the National Index of Free Cash Flow and its corresponding ETF, highlighting the positive trends in liquidity and returns [1][2] - As of September 12, 2025, the Free Cash Flow ETF has seen a net inflow of 97.92 million yuan over the last 10 trading days, with 7 days of net inflow [1] - The Free Cash Flow ETF has achieved a net value increase of 12.46% over the past 6 months, with a maximum monthly return of 7% since its inception [1] Group 2 - The National Index of Free Cash Flow closely tracks the performance of companies with high and stable free cash flow levels in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges [2] - The top ten weighted stocks in the National Index of Free Cash Flow as of August 29, 2025, include SAIC Motor, China National Offshore Oil Corporation, Midea Group, and others, accounting for 57.95% of the index [2] - The performance of individual stocks within the top ten includes SAIC Motor with a 1.46% increase and China National Offshore Oil Corporation with a 0.57% decrease [4]

Summary of Conference Call on Cobalt Sector Industry Overview - The cobalt sector is currently experiencing a price increase trend, supported by Glencore's backing of the Democratic Republic of Congo's (DRC) quota system to enhance cobalt prices, with a significant policy announcement expected on September 22, 2025 [1][2] - Cobalt intermediate prices have seen a slight increase since June 22, 2025, from $13 per pound to $13.7 per pound, but the price rise is limited due to high industry inventory levels [3] Key Points and Arguments - Glencore has ceased external sales of cobalt intermediates to control supply and drive prices up, indicating a potential favorable policy outcome for prices [2] - The DRC's extended export ban could prolong transportation cycles, potentially leading to a supply chain disruption if exports do not resume by late October or November 2025 [6] - Current domestic inventory levels are precarious, with an estimated 40,000 to 50,000 tons remaining by the end of 2025, concentrated in a few major companies [5][6] - The cobalt price trend for 2025 is optimistic, with companies like Huayou, Tengyuan, and Hanrui expected to perform well, particularly after the policy announcement [10] Company Performance - Huayou and Tengyuan are highlighted as reliable investments due to their strong earnings potential, with Huayou benefiting from its Indonesian MHP project [10][13] - Luoyang Molybdenum (Luomoly) is viewed as less favorable for cobalt investments compared to Huayou, Tengyuan, and Hanrui, as its price increase has been limited [11] - Rio Tinto Resources, listed in Hong Kong, achieved a profit of 1.4 billion yuan in the first half of 2025 despite low nickel prices, with an expected annual profit of 3 billion yuan, making it an attractive investment due to its low valuation [12] Additional Insights - The lack of significant price increases in cobalt is attributed to the absence of public news stimuli, despite expectations of an extended export ban [9] - The market is advised to closely monitor Glencore's sales policies as they will significantly influence price movements [7][8] - The overall recommendation is to invest in Huayou, Tengyuan, and Hanrui, while also considering Rio Tinto Resources for its low valuation and potential growth [13]

Group 1 - The expectation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut is increasing, with a projected 25 basis points reduction in the upcoming meeting [1][2] - The U.S. economic data, including a 2.9% year-on-year increase in CPI and a 2.6% year-on-year increase in PPI, supports the Fed's rate cut expectations [2][3] - The industrial metal prices are expected to rise due to improved demand and supply dynamics, with the Zhongzheng Shenwan Nonferrous Metals Index up 58.7% year-to-date [1][2] Group 2 - The industrial metal sector is experiencing a shift from off-peak to peak season, with increased processing rates and supply disruptions providing support for prices [3] - The copper industry is set for growth, with policies aimed at enhancing supply chain resilience and increasing domestic copper resource availability by 5%-10% by 2027 [3] - Companies like Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum are leading in copper production, with Zijin Mining producing 570,000 tons in the first half of 2025 [6] Group 3 - The prices of non-ferrous metals have shown an upward trend, with copper, tungsten, and molybdenum prices increasing by 10%, 102%, and 21% respectively since the beginning of the year [5] - A significant number of companies in the non-ferrous metal sector reported profitability, with 129 out of 141 companies achieving profits in the first half of 2025 [5] - Companies such as Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum reported substantial increases in net profits, with Zijin Mining's net profit rising by 18.8% in Q2 2025 [5][6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the industry [9] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the recovery of the silver-gold ratio and the simultaneous rise in copper and aluminum prices due to both domestic and international factors [5][6] - Weak employment data in the U.S. has led to increased expectations for a 50 basis point rate cut in September, which is expected to boost precious metals [5][6] - The report suggests that while gold remains a focus for investment, the recovery of the silver-gold ratio indicates potential for silver as well [5][6] Summary by Sections Precious Metals - The report highlights the weak performance of the U.S. labor market and its implications for precious metals, particularly gold and silver [5][6] - It suggests that gold stocks may experience a quarterly-level resonance in terms of price, valuation, and style due to anticipated rate cuts [5][6] - For silver, the report advises attention to its potential to converge with gold as inflation expectations rise [5][6] Industrial Metals - Industrial metals have seen a broad increase, with LME copper rising by 1.7% and aluminum by 3.8% [6][27] - The report notes that domestic policies aimed at stabilizing growth are expected to enhance demand outlook [6] - It indicates that while demand for copper and aluminum may decline in the second half of the year, supply constraints will limit the extent of this decline [6] Strategic and Minor Metals - The report discusses the strategic reassessment of rare earths and tungsten, with a focus on their long-term value due to government policies and market dynamics [7] - It highlights the upward price trend for cobalt and nickel, driven by supply constraints and increasing demand in the battery sector [7] - The report also mentions the bottoming out of lithium prices, with a cautious outlook on future price movements [7]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant growth and performance of Luoyang Molybdenum Co., Ltd. (洛阳钼业) in the context of the A-share market, particularly driven by its copper and cobalt production and the rising prices of these metals [1][9]. Company Overview - Luoyang Molybdenum's revenue was approximately 60 billion yuan before 2013, primarily from domestic operations, but it has since expanded through overseas acquisitions, including significant stakes in copper and cobalt mines in Congo and Ecuador [3]. - By 2024, the company expects to produce 650,000 tons of copper and 114,000 tons of cobalt, marking substantial year-on-year growth of 65% and 106%, respectively [3][10]. Financial Performance - From 2020 to 2024, Luoyang Molybdenum's revenue and net profit have shown compound annual growth rates of 17.2% and 55%, respectively, with the latter growing significantly faster due to the strong performance of its mining operations [3][4]. - In the first half of 2025, the company reported revenue of 94.77 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 7.83%, but net profit surged by 60% to 8.67 billion yuan, driven by increased production and favorable pricing [7]. Market Dynamics - The price of copper has risen dramatically from a low of $4,371 per ton in 2020 to $10,064.5 per ton, resulting in improved profitability for the company, with gross profit margins increasing from 7.47% to 21% [4]. - The company has also benefited from a reduction in financial expenses, which fell by 44% due to decreased borrowing and interest rates [7]. Future Outlook - Luoyang Molybdenum's future growth is supported by its strategic resource acquisitions and the anticipated increase in copper and cobalt production over the next five years [10]. - The company is expected to maintain a favorable growth trajectory, with copper prices likely to remain strong due to supply-demand dynamics and macroeconomic factors [10][11]. Industry Context - The A-share market has seen significant movements, with the technology and financial sectors leading the way, while cyclical sectors like metals are expected to benefit from a potential shift in market focus [18][22]. - The current valuation of Luoyang Molybdenum, with a PE ratio of 17 and a PB ratio of 3.97, suggests that it remains within a reasonable range without significant bubble risks [23].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the strong performance of the A-share market, particularly in the technology and non-ferrous metal sectors, with a focus on the significant growth of Luoyang Molybdenum Co., Ltd. (洛阳钼业) and its strategic acquisitions that have bolstered its production capacity and profitability [2][11]. Company Performance - Luoyang Molybdenum's stock has surged over 100% this year, with a market capitalization exceeding 280 billion yuan, ranking just below Zijin Mining in the non-ferrous metal sector [3]. - The company has transitioned from a primarily domestic focus with annual revenues of about 6 billion yuan before 2013 to a global player through strategic acquisitions of various mining assets, significantly increasing its resource base [5]. - By 2024, Luoyang Molybdenum's copper and cobalt production is expected to reach 650,000 tons and 114,000 tons, respectively, marking year-on-year increases of 65% and 106% [5]. Financial Growth - From 2020 to 2024, Luoyang Molybdenum's revenue and net profit have shown compound annual growth rates of 17.2% and 55%, respectively, driven by the growth in its mining operations and rising copper prices [6]. - The average copper price has increased from $4,371 per ton in 2020 to $10,064.5 per ton, contributing to a significant rise in the company's profitability, with gross profit margins increasing from 7.47% to 21% [6]. - In the first half of 2025, the company reported revenues of 94.77 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 7.83%, but net profit surged by 60% to 8.67 billion yuan, attributed to increased production and favorable pricing [8]. Market Trends - The article discusses the broader market context, noting that the A-share index has rebounded significantly since early 2024, with financial and technology sectors leading the gains [16]. - The banking sector has seen substantial growth, driven by market preferences and state-backed investments, while the technology sector has experienced a dramatic rise in valuations, leading to concerns about potential bubbles [21][22]. - The article suggests that the next phase of market direction may favor cyclical and consumer sectors, which currently have lower valuation levels compared to the technology sector [23][24]. Future Outlook - Luoyang Molybdenum is expected to maintain strong growth in the coming years, with projected copper and cobalt production reaching 800,000 tons and over 150,000 tons by 2028, respectively [12]. - The anticipated copper price stability, influenced by macroeconomic factors and supply-demand dynamics, is expected to support the company's performance [12]. - Despite the positive outlook, there are warnings about potential market corrections and external economic risks that could impact copper prices and, consequently, Luoyang Molybdenum's profitability [27].

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [6] Core Views - The expectation of interest rate cuts has strengthened, leading to upward price movements in both industrial and precious metals [1][2] - Copper prices have shown a strong upward trend, with the recent price reaching 80,810 CNY/ton, driven by seasonal demand and supply constraints [1] - Aluminum prices have also increased, with the Shanghai aluminum price at 21,075 CNY/ton, supported by stable production and improved demand from the automotive sector [1][22] - Precious metals, particularly gold and silver, have seen price increases due to soft labor market signals and expectations of continued central bank purchases [2][27] Summary by Sections 1. Base Metals & Precious Metals - **Copper**: Prices have rebounded due to reduced market supply and stable demand, with domestic copper inventory at 149,000 tons [1][13] - **Aluminum**: Prices have increased due to stable supply and improved demand, with LME aluminum inventory rising to 485,300 tons [1][22][23] - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver prices have risen, with gold averaging 821.23 CNY/g and silver at 9,773 CNY/kg, supported by macroeconomic factors [2][27] 2. Minor Metals - **Tungsten**: Prices have shown mixed trends, with black tungsten concentrate averaging 286,500 CNY/ton, while market sentiment remains cautious [3][61] - **Rare Earths**: Prices have stabilized, with light rare earth oxide at 575,000 CNY/ton, indicating a potential recovery in the sector [4] 3. Market Predictions - **Copper**: Expected to maintain a high level of volatility, with prices projected to range between 79,600-81,000 CNY/ton [14] - **Aluminum**: Anticipated to fluctuate within the range of 20,400-21,000 CNY/ton [23] - **Precious Metals**: Gold prices are expected to range between 800-840 CNY/g, while silver is projected to be between 9,000-9,900 CNY/kg [28]