Investment Strategy Overview - The report maintains a standard rating for the non-ferrous metals industry, highlighting the positive outlook for copper and aluminum, while emphasizing the potential for rare metals and lithium to rise due to supply-demand dynamics and technological advancements [1][3]. Copper Industry - The copper supply-demand landscape is influenced by ongoing global supply disruptions and a favorable macroeconomic environment, with expectations for price increases supported by a global interest rate cut cycle [3][21]. - Domestic copper production is projected to slow down due to tightening copper concentrate supplies and low smelting fees, while demand from the renewable energy sector and AI electronics is expected to continue rising [3][50]. - In the first three quarters of 2025, China's refined copper production reached 889.5 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 13.14%, driven by significant contributions from recycled copper and improved smelting technology [3][28]. Aluminum Industry - The aluminum market is characterized by rigid supply constraints and differentiated demand, with prices expected to rise due to strong demand from the renewable energy sector and gradual recovery in the real estate market [3][55]. - Domestic aluminum production is supported by stable bauxite supply and increasing imports, with a notable rise in imported bauxite by 33.6% year-on-year [3][59]. - The report indicates that the aluminum price is likely to maintain an upward trajectory due to the ongoing economic recovery and the anticipated demand from various sectors [3][55]. Strategic Metals - The rare earth supply is expected to stabilize, but demand needs to be boosted, particularly from sectors like electric vehicles and renewable energy [3][4]. - Tungsten supply is projected to remain tight due to resource depletion and environmental regulations, while demand is stable, driven by applications in hard alloys and emerging technologies [3][4]. - Lithium production is set to benefit from the rapid expansion of energy storage and solid-state battery technologies, with a significant increase in demand anticipated [3][4]. Precious Metals - Gold is expected to maintain its upward momentum due to declining dollar credit and ongoing central bank purchases, despite short-term volatility [3][5]. - The report highlights that gold's monetary attributes are likely to be reinforced amid geopolitical tensions and a global trend towards de-dollarization [3][19]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies such as Tianshan Aluminum (002532), Luoyang Molybdenum (603993), and Western Mining (601168) for industrial metals, while recommending Xiamen Tungsten (600549) and Xingye Silver Tin (000426) for small metals and new materials [6]. - For energy metals, Ganfeng Lithium (002460) and Tianqi Lithium (002466) are highlighted as key players to watch [6]. - In the precious metals sector, Zijin Mining (601899) and Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining (600988) are recommended due to their potential for price appreciation [6].

11月24日，洛阳钼业大宗交易成交90万股，成交额1381.5万元，占当日总成交额的0.55%，成交价15.35 元，较市场收盘价15.35元持平。 | 交易日期 证券简称 | | 蓬券代码 | 成交价(元) 成交金额(万元) 成交量(*) 买入营业部 | | | 奥出营业部 | 是否为专场 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025-11-24 | 洛阳相业 | 603993 | 15.35 1381.5 | 90 | 机构专用 | 母唇表酒店塑胶的 | | Ka | ...

截至11月24日收盘，盐湖提锂概念下跌1.40%，位居概念板块跌幅榜前列，板块内，盛新锂能跌停，金 圆股份、赣锋锂业、天齐锂业等跌幅居前，股价上涨的有17只，涨幅居前的有倍杰特、三达膜、隆华科 技等，分别上涨2.56%、2.53%、2.42%。 今日涨跌幅居前的概念板块 | 概念 | 今日涨跌幅（%） | 概念 | 今日涨跌幅（%） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 中船系 | 6.63 | 海南自贸区 | -2.19 | | 小红书概念 | 4.76 | 盐湖提锂 | -1.40 | | 军工信息化 | 4.63 | 磷化工 | -0.88 | | 太赫兹 | 4.47 | 自由贸易港 | -0.50 | | 快手概念 | 4.14 | 钛白粉概念 | -0.46 | | 智谱AI | 4.11 | 转基因 | -0.46 | | 兵装重组概念 | 4.00 | 石墨电极 | -0.40 | | 国产航母 | 3.97 | 大豆 | -0.37 | | Web3.0 | 3.89 | 化肥 | -0.30 | | 数字水印 | 3.89 | 养鸡 | -0.30 | 资金面上看，今 ...

Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metal sector is experiencing mixed performance, with opportunities for low-cost investments in specific sub-sectors, particularly in the electrolytic aluminum segment, driven by anticipated demand growth and price increases through 2026 [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of November 24, 2025, the non-ferrous metal industry index (399395) shows mixed results among its constituent stocks, with Dongyangguang (600673) leading gains at 5.68%, followed by Placo New Materials (300811) at 5.42%, and Hailiang Co. (002203) at 4.31% [1]. - The non-ferrous ETF fund (159880) is currently priced at 1.67 yuan [1]. Group 2: Sector Insights - The non-ferrous sector is viewed as presenting a buying opportunity, particularly in segments that have been undervalued [1]. - The electrolytic aluminum sector is highlighted for its high dividend yield as a defensive strategy, with expectations of demand growth and price increases continuing into 2026 [1]. - The outlook for industrial metals is positive, driven by U.S. fiscal expansion and the high copper-aluminum price ratio, which may lead to increased demand for aluminum [1]. Group 3: Index Composition - As of October 31, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the non-ferrous metal industry index (399395) include Zijin Mining (601899), Luoyang Molybdenum (603993), and Northern Rare Earth (600111), collectively accounting for 52.91% of the index [2].

Group 1 - The global second-largest copper mine, Grasberg, has announced a restart and production resumption plan, with expected continuous growth in output [1] - Grasberg's copper production is projected to remain at 1 billion pounds (approximately 454,000 tons) in 2026, with an average annual output potentially reaching 1.6 billion pounds (approximately 726,000 tons) from 2027 to 2029 [1] - If Grasberg successfully follows the restart schedule, it could contribute an incremental copper output of approximately 70,000 tons in 2026 and 2027, potentially increasing global copper mine production growth rate to about 3.3% in 2026 [1] Group 2 - Other copper mines, such as Cobre Panamá, are also expected to resume production, with a peak annual capacity of 300,000 to 350,000 tons of copper, accounting for about 1.5% of global copper supply [2] - The Panamanian government is preparing to negotiate with First Quantum regarding the restart of Cobre Panamá, with talks expected to begin by the end of 2025 or early 2026 [2] - The gradual removal of mid-term mining disruptions is anticipated to significantly contribute to the incremental supply from mines like Grasberg and Cobre Panamá, alleviating the tight supply situation in the copper market [2] Group 3 - The growth rate of copper smelting production in 2026-2027 is expected to be lower than that of the copper mine supply side, with copper mine production growth rates projected to reach 3.3% and 5.3% year-on-year [3] - Many overseas smelting plants are reducing capacity due to tight copper concentrate supply and high costs, while domestic copper smelting policies are expected to lead to a lower growth rate in smelting production compared to the supply side [3] - There is potential for marginal improvement in copper smelting fees, indicating investment opportunities in mid-term copper smelting enterprises [3] Group 4 - Investment recommendations include focusing on Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group, one of the largest copper smelting companies in China, which has expectations for increased self-sufficiency in copper concentrate due to the Mirador copper mine [4] - Other recommended stocks include Zijin Mining, which has significant resource reserves and expectations for continued copper mine expansion [4] - Additional stocks to consider are Jiangxi Copper and Luoyang Molybdenum, which have not been rated yet [4]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform" [3] Core Views - The report highlights ongoing speculation regarding interest rate cuts, with a focus on gold and copper markets. The expectation for a December rate cut remains uncertain, influenced by mixed employment data and the lack of CPI data due to government shutdowns. Despite fluctuations in market expectations, historical trends suggest that even if a rate cut does not occur, it will not alter the long-term direction for gold [10][11] - The impact of Russia's gold sales is deemed limited, as the country has significantly reduced its gold purchases in 2023 and is primarily selling gold domestically due to sanctions on international transactions. This is expected to have minimal effect on the global market [10] - Copper prices show resilience, remaining stable within the range of $10,600 to $11,000 per ton, supported by strong supply and demand fundamentals. Recent production guidance from Freeport has been adjusted downward, indicating a tighter supply outlook for 2026 [11] Summary by Sections Gold Market - The ongoing debate over interest rate cuts is affecting gold prices, with December cut probabilities fluctuating between 30% and 70%. The report suggests that the direction for gold remains positive regardless of short-term rate cut outcomes [10] - Russia's gold reserves are over 2,300 tons, but their recent sales are not expected to significantly impact international gold prices due to domestic selling constraints [10] Copper Market - Copper prices have shown strong resilience, not following broader market declines. The report notes a recent increase in the operating rate of copper rod production, indicating robust demand [11] - Freeport's production guidance for copper has been revised downwards, suggesting a tighter supply situation moving forward [11] - The report anticipates further upward adjustments in earnings expectations for copper mining stocks due to ongoing fiscal expansion and liquidity conditions [11] Market Performance - The report indicates that the non-ferrous metals index has underperformed the broader market, with a decline of 6.75% recently. Specific sectors such as lithium and gold have shown varying performance, with lithium stocks performing relatively better [12]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for CMOC is "Buy" with a target price of HK$20.60, indicating an expected total return of 22.0% including a dividend yield of 2.3% [6][8]. Core Insights - CMOC's net profit in 3Q25 exceeded market expectations, driven by a lower effective tax rate, realized cobalt sales, and strong minor metals prices [2]. - The company anticipates sustainable copper output growth due to technology upgrades, with a guidance of 0.8-1.0 million tonnes (mnt) for 2028E and the KFM phase 2 project expected to operate in 1H27E with an average output of 100,000 tonnes per annum (ktpa) [3]. - Copper production costs have decreased year-over-year in 9M25 due to increased output and cost control measures [4]. - Cobalt output is expected to remain stable despite potential adjustments in production methods, with a total cobalt quota of over 30,000 tonnes allocated for TFM and KFM projects in 2026E [5]. Financial Performance - CMOC's market capitalization is approximately HK$368.41 billion (US$47.40 billion) [6]. - The net financial expenses have decreased year-over-year in 9M25 due to the repayment of long-term debt [5]. - The DCF valuation methodology used yields a fair-value target price of HK$20.60, based on an 11% weighted average cost of capital (WACC) [8].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference focused on the basic materials sector in China, particularly metals, power equipment, and energy storage systems (ESS) [1] - Featured insights from 35 experts and companies, including Zijin, Chalco, Hongqiao, CMOC, and CGN Mining [1] Aluminum Sector - **Demand and Supply Dynamics**: Strong aluminum demand driven by electrification and substitution for copper, with a price ratio of approximately 4x [2][8] - **Market Prices**: Aluminum prices exceeded Hongqiao's previous guidance of RMB 20,600–21,300 per ton, supported by fundamentals and potential global smelter shutdowns [2][9] - **Cost Drivers**: Power tariffs are a significant cost factor, with Hongqiao's average tariff at RMB 0.38/kWh in Q3 [2][10] - **Strategic Initiatives**: Hongqiao plans to increase capacity from 1.96 million tons to 2.16 million tons by year-end and is focusing on overseas bauxite expansion [2][11][12] Copper Sector - **Price Forecast**: SMM forecasts copper prices to average US$10,600–11,200 per ton in 2026, with potential spikes to US$12,000 per ton due to tight supply [3][18] - **Supply and Demand**: Global copper supply expected to rise by ~900kt next year, with demand growth projected at ~3%, primarily from EVs and wind power [3][20] - **Production Challenges**: Zijin's 2025 copper output may fall short due to the suspension of the Kakula mine, but long-term guidance remains intact [3][21] Uranium Sector - **Market Revival**: Uranium demand is rebounding as nuclear power becomes a stable energy source for AI and data centers, with a supply-demand gap of ~60kt vs. ~75kt [4][32] - **Price Stability**: Spot prices hover around USD80/lb, with term contracts limiting downside risk [4][32] - **Future Demand Drivers**: Increased nuclear power station construction and the deployment of small modular reactors (SMRs) are expected to drive future uranium demand [4][30] Tungsten and Molybdenum - **Tungsten Market**: Faces a structural deficit with China producing 83% of global tungsten. Domestic concentrate prices have doubled YoY to RMB 300k/t due to supply constraints [35] - **Molybdenum Trends**: China supplies ~50% of global molybdenum, with demand outpacing supply growth. Prices are expected to remain firm through 2030 [36] Strategic Initiatives and Financial Outlook - **Chalco's Capex**: Projected future capital expenditure of RMB 15-20 billion annually, focusing on resource extension and operational efficiency [2][17] - **Shareholder Returns**: Hongqiao is considering a share buyback exceeding US$3 billion, indicating confidence in cash flow and growth prospects [2][12] - **CMOC's Financial Position**: Strong operational performance with a projected annual capex of USD1 billion for the next few years [24][26] Investment Risks - **Market Risks**: Potential asset impairments and economic shutdowns in alumina operations could pose risks to future performance [17] - **Geopolitical Risks**: Geopolitical tensions may affect supply chains and market stability, particularly in uranium and tungsten sectors [30][35] Conclusion - The conference highlighted robust demand across the metals sector, with strategic initiatives aimed at enhancing production capacity and shareholder value. However, challenges such as supply constraints, geopolitical risks, and fluctuating prices remain critical considerations for investors.

Group 1 - The core investment theme for 2026 is transitioning from extreme growth to balanced allocation, focusing on sectors with strong performance potential [3][11] - In the technology sector, the report highlights that industries related to artificial intelligence and embodied intelligence are expected to experience a slowdown in profit growth after rapid valuation increases, suggesting a focus on segments with relatively low historical valuations and strong earnings support [3][11] - For traditional industries, the report recommends focusing on upstream sectors benefiting from "AI+" enhancements and profit recovery opportunities following capacity clearance driven by anti-involution policies [3][11] Group 2 - The report identifies a potential recovery in downstream consumer sectors during the 2026-2027 inventory cycle, alongside a gradual return of long-term capital to the market, suggesting a sustained allocation window for industries such as food and beverage, pharmaceuticals, and duty-free concepts [3][11] - The recommended top ten stocks for 2026 include: 300568.SZ Xingyuan Material, 601233.SH Tongkun Co., 603755.SH Richen Co., 300442.SZ Runze Technology, 688303.SH Daqian Energy, 002920.SZ Desay SV, 688041.SH Haiguang Information, 603993.SH Luoyang Molybdenum, 603583.SH Jiechang Drive, and 002027.SZ Focus Media [4][13] - The report provides a detailed earnings forecast and valuation for the recommended stocks, indicating expected earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for 2025 and 2026 [16]

Core Viewpoint - The Freedom Cash Flow ETF CSI All Share (561080) experienced a decline of 1.70% as of the midday close on November 21, with a trading volume of 4.1672 million yuan [1] Group 1: ETF Performance - The Freedom Cash Flow ETF CSI All Share (561080) closed at 1.211 yuan [1] - The fund has a performance benchmark of the CSI All Share Free Cash Flow Index return rate [1] - Since its establishment on April 23, 2025, the fund has achieved a return of 23.00%, with a one-month return of 4.57% [1] Group 2: Major Holdings - Major stocks in the Freedom Cash Flow ETF include: - China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) down 1.44% - Midea Group down 0.05% - Gree Electric Appliances down 0.74% - Wuliangye Yibin down 0.36% - China COSCO Shipping down 0.46% - Luoyang Molybdenum down 3.48% - TCL Technology down 1.92% - China Aluminum down 4.08% - SF Express down 1.34% - Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry down 0.43% [1]