Core Viewpoint - Luoyang Molybdenum Co., Ltd. has shown significant fluctuations in financing activities and stock performance, with a notable increase in net profit despite a decrease in revenue for the first nine months of 2025 [1][2]. Financing Activities - On November 27, Luoyang Molybdenum experienced a financing buy-in of 210 million yuan, with a net financing outflow of approximately 21.69 million yuan [1]. - The total financing balance reached 3.19 billion yuan, accounting for 1.14% of the circulating market value, indicating a high level of financing activity compared to the past year [1]. - The company had a margin balance that exceeded the 80th percentile of the past year, suggesting elevated borrowing levels [1]. Stock Performance - On November 27, the stock price of Luoyang Molybdenum fell by 0.19%, with a trading volume of 2.686 billion yuan [1]. - The company had a margin sell-out of 69,900 shares on the same day, with a total sell-out value of approximately 1.11 million yuan [1]. Business Overview - Luoyang Molybdenum primarily engages in the mining, processing, and trading of rare metals such as molybdenum, tungsten, and gold, with a diverse revenue structure [2]. - As of September 30, 2025, the company reported a revenue of 145.49 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.99%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 72.61% to 14.28 billion yuan [2]. Shareholder Structure - As of September 30, 2025, the top ten circulating shareholders included Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited, which increased its holdings by 47.47 million shares [3]. - The company has seen a rise in the number of shareholders, with a total of 304,200, reflecting an increase of 28.08% compared to the previous period [2].

Core Viewpoint - The rare metals sector is experiencing a rebound, driven by increased demand from downstream industries such as energy storage and power batteries, alongside supply-side uncertainties [1] Industry Summary - As of November 27, 2025, the China Securities Rare Metals Theme Index rose by 0.54%, with notable increases in stocks such as Yunnan Zhenye (+5.63%) and Tin Industry Co. (+4.90%) [1] - The price of lithium carbonate futures previously exceeded 100,000 yuan/ton due to significant growth in demand and supply constraints [1] - The scarcity of strategic minor metals, coupled with rapid growth in demand from sectors like new energy, semiconductors, and military industries, is intensifying supply-demand conflicts [1] - Future price trends for rare metals are expected to continue upward due to ongoing resource scarcity, demand structure upgrades, and policy adjustments [1] Company Summary - According to Shenwan Hongyuan Research, the small metals sector is anticipated to see positive changes in 2026, with energy storage demand driving an earlier reversal in the lithium carbonate industry cycle [1] - The value of strategic minor metals such as rare earths, tungsten, and antimony is expected to be continuously reassessed in the context of de-globalization [1] - The restructuring of the global credit landscape and the continuation of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts will support the favorable trends for precious and minor metals [1] - As of October 31, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the China Securities Rare Metals Theme Index accounted for 60% of the index, including companies like Northern Rare Earth, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Ganfeng Lithium [1]

Core Insights - The copper market is expected to maintain a tight balance in supply and demand, with prices projected to rise, reaching historical highs by the end of 2025, driven by financial factors and market sentiment rather than actual demand shortages [2][4][15] - Global refined copper demand in 2024 is anticipated to be dominated by China, accounting for 58% of total consumption, while the U.S. will contribute 6% [2][24] - China's copper demand is expected to grow steadily in 2025, with significant increases in the production of copper rods and tubes, while copper foil shows exceptional performance [3][25] Supply and Demand Dynamics - From January to August 2025, the global copper supply and demand remained in a tight balance, with an average monthly surplus of 0.8 thousand tons, despite high prices suppressing demand [2][19] - The refined copper consumption in 2025 is projected to increase, primarily driven by China, Japan, and Germany, while demand from Mexico and Finland is expected to decline [20][24] - The supply side is characterized by a slow increase in C1 costs and ongoing shortages in the mining sector, with refined copper production growth lagging behind that of copper concentrate [3][19] Price Trends and Market Sentiment - The copper price is expected to experience fluctuations, with a projected average of $9,704 per ton in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6% [4][12] - The price movements in 2025 are influenced by traditional commodity attributes, with financial attributes showing a negative correlation, particularly as the U.S. dollar fluctuates [4][13][15] - The anticipated tight supply and steady demand are expected to keep copper prices on an upward trajectory, potentially reaching $10,500 per ton in 2026 [5][15] Investment Strategies - Investment opportunities are identified in upstream mining resources, particularly in companies with significant resource advantages, such as Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum [5] - Downstream processing companies with high barriers to entry are also recommended, including Hailiang Co., with a focus on those performing well in their respective sectors [5]

摩根士丹利发布研报称，中国有色金属工业协会宣布，将严格限制新建铜冶炼产能，并关停约200万吨 违规建设的铜冶炼产能。若该政策落实执行，将利好铜价及主要铜生产商。该行预期江西铜业及洛阳钼 业股价将于未来15日内上升，几率约70%至80%，目标价分别为37.3港元及18.6港元，均予"增持"评 级。 消息面上，据媒体报道，中国有色金属工业协会副会长陈学森周三在上海举行的行业会议上表示，负加 工费严重损害包括中国在内的全球铜冶炼行业利益。负加工费意味着冶炼厂实际上在"倒贴钱"加工铜精 矿，这种极不寻常的情况已对全球铜行业长期沿用的定价基准构成挑战。这是中国行业主管机构首次公 开就加工费市场乱象发声。 铜业股早盘普涨，截至发稿，中国有色矿业(01258)涨4.89%，报14.37港元；江西铜业（600362）股份 (00358)涨3.44%，报31.3港元；洛阳钼业（603993）(03993)涨3.31%，报16.56港元；五矿资源(01208)涨 2.36%，报6.94港元。 ...

Investment Strategy Overview - The report emphasizes that gold prices are expected to rise due to the anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with a potential reduction of about 75 basis points. This is supported by increasing global ETF demand and stable industrial demand for gold [5][6][8]. - The copper market is projected to face a supply shortage in 2026, driven by the growing demand from renewable energy sectors and AI developments, while supply constraints arise from declining ore grades and geopolitical risks [6][8]. - Tungsten is highlighted for its strategic importance, particularly in high-tech and defense sectors, with strong demand expected from automation and military spending, while supply remains tight due to China's control over production [7][8]. - Cobalt supply is anticipated to decrease significantly due to export restrictions from the Democratic Republic of Congo, while demand from electric vehicle batteries and portable devices is expected to grow, leading to a widening supply gap [8][8]. Industry Performance Review - The steel industry index increased by 22.24% from December 31, 2024, to November 21, 2025, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 9.05 percentage points. The steel sub-sectors showed varied performance, with special steel and common steel experiencing growth [19][20]. - The non-ferrous metals industry index surged by 65.71% during the same period, significantly outperforming the CSI 300 index by 52.53 percentage points, indicating strong overall sector performance [19][20]. - In terms of revenue, the steel industry reported a total of 14,252.05 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 6.18%, but with a notable recovery in net profit [27][34]. - The non-ferrous metals sector achieved a revenue of 28,220.96 billion yuan in the same period, marking a year-on-year growth of 9.30%, with substantial increases in net profit across various sub-sectors [34][38]. Key Recommendations - The report recommends maintaining an "overweight" rating on companies such as Zhongjin Gold, Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Huayou Cobalt, reflecting confidence in their performance amid favorable market conditions [3][11].

Industry Overview and Price Trends - The steel industry is entering a demand off-season, leading to increasing fundamental pressure on steel prices, which are expected to fluctuate at low levels in the short term [2] - Copper supply remains tight due to accidents at major overseas mines, providing support for copper prices. China's significant waste copper imports may face constraints if the EU restricts exports, potentially tightening domestic copper supply next year [2] - Aluminum prices are expected to remain volatile due to weak demand in the domestic off-season and a lack of support from the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations [2] - Gold prices face upward pressure due to better-than-expected U.S. non-farm employment data and diverging opinions among Federal Reserve officials [2] - The lithium industry shows positive fundamentals, with adjustments to trading rules for lithium carbonate contracts aimed at curbing speculative behavior, leading to increased price volatility in the short term [2] - Rare earth prices are expected to fluctuate without significant improvement in downstream demand [2] Weekly Strategy - For the steel industry, the implementation of steady growth policies is expected to improve the competitive landscape and enhance profitability, with demand in shipbuilding and construction likely to increase [3] - The copper industry is anticipated to benefit from tightening global supply due to accidents at major mines, while demand is expected to rise in key sectors such as electric power grids and new energy vehicles [3] - In the aluminum sector, the release of new alumina project capacities is expected to keep alumina prices low, while demand from new energy vehicles and high-voltage power grids may support aluminum prices [4] - Gold prices will be influenced by U.S. economic data, Federal Reserve interest rate expectations, and geopolitical tensions, with long-term factors such as central bank gold purchases enhancing gold's attractiveness [4] - The rare earth industry is expected to see a revaluation of related companies due to upgraded export controls, with strategic value in resources and advancements in robotics and new energy sectors driving future demand [4] - The cobalt market is projected to remain tight due to constrained supply from the Democratic Republic of Congo, while demand from new energy vehicles and consumer electronics is expected to support prices [5] Investment Ratings - The report maintains a "positive" rating for the steel industry and the non-ferrous metals sector, with specific companies such as Luoyang Molybdenum (603993), Zhongjin Gold (600489), Huayou Cobalt (603799), Zijin Mining (601899), and China Aluminum (601600) receiving "overweight" ratings [6]

文 |万联万象 随着刚果（金）安全形势复杂严峻，暴力冲突不断升级，11月23日，我国外交部发布安全提醒，驻留刚 果（金）东部地区中国公民应立即撤离。 就在一周以前，该国南部卢阿拉巴省的穆隆多矿区，发生了涉及数十人死亡的重大事故。 接连不断的矿难与持续升级的武装冲突，不仅在这个中非国家的版图上刻下了深深的创伤，更如同两股 汹涌的暗流，猛烈冲击着全球有色金属供应链的基石。 一场波及全球的铜市供需短缺风暴，正从非洲刮向全球。 危机迭起：矿难与暴乱 在近一年时间里，刚果（金）的安全与发展形势经历了严峻的考验，矿难与武装冲突的恶性循环成为这 个资源之国的主旋律。 资源宝库与中资深耕 尽管危机四伏，但无人能否认刚果（金）在全球有色金属版图中举足轻重的战略地位。 它是全球最大的钴生产国，供应了全球约70%的钴资源；同时，它也是全球第二大铜生产国，并且其巨 大的资源潜力被普遍认为将成为未来全球铜供应增长的最主要来源。 这座"地质学上的奇迹"因此成为了全球矿业巨头，特别是中国企业的必争之地。 在非法采矿与安全监管缺失的阴影下，矿难悲剧频繁上演。卢阿拉巴省卡瓦马村穆隆多矿区的桥梁坍塌 事件，导致49人溺亡，这仅是冰山一角。 由于 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is the positive outlook for the non-ferrous metals sector, driven by recent market trends and potential Federal Reserve interest rate cuts [3][4]. - The non-ferrous metals ETF (159876) has seen a price increase of 0.46% and has attracted 206 million yuan in the last 10 days, indicating strong investor interest [1]. - As of November 25, the total size of the non-ferrous metals ETF reached 686 million yuan, making it the largest among three ETFs tracking the same index [1]. Group 2 - Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Milan suggested increasing rate cuts to support the economy, with an 84.9% probability of a 25 basis point cut in December [3]. - Analysts believe that a Fed rate cut could boost non-ferrous metal prices due to currency depreciation, making metals cheaper in dollar terms and increasing global demand [3]. - Institutions are optimistic about the non-ferrous metals sector continuing a bull market, with key focus areas including copper and aluminum due to supply constraints and recovering demand, as well as lithium and cobalt driven by energy storage and battery needs [3]. Group 3 - The non-ferrous metals ETF (159876) and its linked funds provide comprehensive coverage of various metals, allowing for better risk diversification compared to investing in single metal sectors [4].

Core Points - The Shanghai Investment Products Index (000102) closed at 7120.52 points, up 0.92%, with a trading volume of 58.14 billion yuan and a turnover rate of 1.12% [1] - Among the index constituents, 33 stocks rose, led by Zhongjin Gold with a 4.15% increase, while 14 stocks fell, with Samsung Medical leading the decline at 1.88% [1] Index Constituents Summary - The top ten constituents of the Shanghai Investment Products Index include: - Yinghui Mining (6.27% weight, 28.51 yuan, 1.82% increase, market cap 757.73 billion yuan) in the non-ferrous metals sector - China Shipbuilding (5.26% weight, 34.93 yuan, 1.58% decrease, market cap 262.87 billion yuan) in the defense industry - Northern Rare Earth (5.01% weight, 45.05 yuan, 0.47% increase, market cap 162.86 billion yuan) in the non-ferrous metals sector - Jiangqi Green Energy (4.99% weight, 18.98 yuan, 1.17% increase, market cap 143.83 billion yuan) in the power equipment sector - Longzhi Aluminum Industry (4.67% weight, 15.97 yuan, 4.04% increase, market cap 341.67 billion yuan) in the non-ferrous metals sector - Sany Heavy Industry (4.48% weight, 20.44 yuan, 0.34% decrease, market cap 186.13 billion yuan) in the machinery sector - China Shenhua (3.91% weight, 41.20 yuan, no change, market cap 818.58 billion yuan) in the coal sector - TBEA (3.86% weight, 22.07 yuan, 2.56% increase, market cap 111.52 billion yuan) in the power equipment sector - Guodian NARI (3.79% weight, 22.19 yuan, 0.18% increase, market cap 178.23 billion yuan) in the power equipment sector - Huayou Cobalt (3.73% weight, 60.51 yuan, 3.97% increase, market cap 114.73 billion yuan) in the non-ferrous metals sector [1] Capital Flow Analysis - The net inflow of main funds into the index constituents totaled 1.055 billion yuan, while speculative funds saw a net outflow of 631 million yuan, and retail investors experienced a net outflow of 424 million yuan [1] - Specific stocks with significant capital flow include: - Huayou Cobalt with a net inflow of 300 million yuan, but speculative and retail outflows of 46.34 million yuan and 25.4 million yuan respectively - China Aluminum with a net inflow of 208 million yuan, but speculative and retail outflows of 70.64 million yuan and 13.7 million yuan respectively - TBEA with a net inflow of 179 million yuan, but speculative and retail outflows of 62.93 million yuan and 11.6 million yuan respectively [2]

Core Viewpoint - The expectation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut has increased, leading to a collective rise in gold and copper prices, with the non-ferrous metal sector showing signs of recovery [1][4]. Group 1: Federal Reserve and Economic Outlook - Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller reiterated support for a rate cut in December, citing stable inflation and concerns about the labor market [3]. - Goldman Sachs predicts that the Fed will likely initiate a rate cut in December, with potential further cuts in 2025, bringing the benchmark rate down to the 3%-3.25% range [3]. - The current economic conditions suggest a tilt towards accelerated rate cuts if the economic downturn exceeds expectations [3]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Commodity Prices - The market's anticipation of the Fed's rate cut has provided upward momentum for physical asset prices, with COMEX gold and LME copper both rising over 1% [4]. - The copper production target for Freeport-McMoRan in Indonesia has been lowered to 478,000 tons for 2026 due to operational disruptions, which may lead to short-term supply concerns and support higher copper prices [4]. Group 3: Copper Price Projections - UBS has raised its copper price targets for 2026, with the new target set at $13,000 per ton, reflecting a bullish outlook on copper prices [5]. - The copper market is expected to maintain an upward price trend due to supply constraints and increasing demand from sectors like electric power, new energy vehicles, and data centers [8]. Group 4: Non-Ferrous Metal Sector Performance - The Non-Ferrous 50 ETF (159652) saw significant gains, with leading stocks like Huaxi Nonferrous rising over 8% and several others increasing by more than 3% [6]. - The non-ferrous metal sector is characterized by tight supply and strong demand, with aluminum prices expected to remain high due to limited new capacity and robust demand [9]. Group 5: Investment Opportunities - The Non-Ferrous 50 ETF (159652) is highlighted for its high "gold and copper content," with 33% copper and 13% gold, making it a leading choice in the sector [10]. - The ETF has demonstrated superior performance with a cumulative return leading its peers since 2022, driven by earnings rather than valuation expansion [12].