补水啦增长强劲,盈利能力持续改善 核心观点 == ● 公司发布 2024 年三季度报，前三季度实现营业收入 125.6 亿元 ( yoy+45.3% ) ; 实 现归母净利润 27.1 亿元 ( yoy+63.5% ) 。单三季度来看，公司实现营业收入 46.8 亿元（yoy+47.3%），实现归母净利润 9.8 亿元（yoy+78.4%），业绩增长强劲。 ● 东鹏特饮大单品+补水啦新品共推强势增长。东鹏特饮大单品+补水啦新品共推强势 增长。分产品来看,24Q3 东鹏特饮实现收入 105.1 亿元（ yoy+31.4% ），补水啦实 现收入 12.1 亿元（yoy+292.1% ），双产品增速均强劲。分地区来看，24Q3 广东/ 华东/华中/广西/西南/华北/线上分别实现收入 16.6% /49.9% /54.1% /21.7% /67.1% /83.6% /112.8%，华北、西南地区以及线上高增,预计受益于销售渠道优化、线上 布局等。截至 24Q3 末，公司在广东/华东/华中/广西/西南/华北/直营及线上分别拥有 经销商 251/289/386/122/446/875/624 家，分别环比 24H1 末变 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 4.685 billion yuan for Q3 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 47.29%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 977 million yuan, up 78.42% year-on-year, slightly exceeding previous forecasts [2][6] - The company's performance is supported by cost advantages and scale effects, which further enhance profitability [2][6] - The energy drink market is steadily expanding, and the company is making progress in national expansion, transitioning from a leader in energy drinks to a broader beverage platform [2][6] Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a total revenue of 12.558 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 45.34%, and a net profit of 2.707 billion yuan, up 63.53% year-on-year [6] - The gross margin for Q3 2024 was 45.81%, an increase of 4.29 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to low raw material costs [6] - The company expects revenue growth rates of 41.84%, 26.71%, and 21.46% for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding net profit growth rates of 57.10%, 30.61%, and 25.20% [6][7] Product and Regional Performance - In Q3 2024, the company's main products, including Dongpeng Special Drink and other beverages, achieved revenues of 3.652 billion yuan and 281 million yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 27.73% and 107.04% [6] - Revenue from various regions showed significant growth, with Guangdong, East China, and Central China experiencing year-on-year increases of 30.47%, 43.60%, and 57.90%, respectively [6] Future Outlook - The company is projected to continue its strong growth trajectory, with expected revenues of 15.975 billion yuan in 2024, 20.242 billion yuan in 2025, and 24.586 billion yuan in 2026 [7] - The report emphasizes the company's ability to leverage cost advantages and scale effects to enhance profitability further [6][7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 265.29 CNY, based on a calculated equity value of 1379.5 billion CNY [2][4][6]. Core Insights - The company reported strong revenue growth of 45.3% year-over-year, achieving 12.56 billion CNY in revenue for the first three quarters of 2024, and a net profit of 2.71 billion CNY, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 63.5% [1][6]. - The product lines, particularly the Dongpeng energy drink and the new "Bushuila" product, have driven significant growth, with the latter showing an impressive revenue increase of 292.1% year-over-year [1]. - The gross profit margin has been steadily increasing, reaching 45.1% in Q3 2024, up 2.5 percentage points year-over-year, indicating improved profitability due to scale effects and reduced raw material costs [1][6]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the company forecasts revenue of 15.96 billion CNY, with a year-over-year growth rate of 41.7%. The net profit is expected to reach 3.21 billion CNY, reflecting a growth rate of 57.4% [3][6]. - The gross margin is projected to improve to 45.2% in 2024, with a net profit margin of 20.1% [3][6]. - The company has shown a consistent increase in earnings per share, projected at 6.17 CNY for 2024, compared to 3.92 CNY in 2023 [3][6]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is expanding its national presence and building a comprehensive beverage platform, focusing on energy drinks, electrolyte drinks, tea, coffee, and pre-mixed alcoholic beverages [1][6]. - The sales network is being optimized, with a notable increase in the number of distributors across various regions, contributing to robust sales growth [1][6]. - The company aims to enhance its market share in the functional beverage and electrolyte water segments through continued product development and channel expansion [1].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2] Core Views - The company has shown strong performance in Q3, exceeding expectations, with a revenue of 46.8 billion yuan in Q3 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 47.3% [3] - The company is progressing steadily with its multi-category and national strategy, aiming to become a comprehensive beverage group [7] - The second growth curve, "Brew Water," has achieved significant revenue growth, reaching 12.1 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 292% [3][7] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a total revenue of 125.6 billion yuan, up 45.3% year-on-year, and a net profit of 27.1 billion yuan, up 63.5% year-on-year [3] - The gross profit margin for Q3 2024 was 45.8%, an increase of 4.3 percentage points year-on-year, driven by lower raw material costs [5][6] Product Performance - The main product, "Dongpeng Special Drink," generated 105.1 billion yuan in revenue in the first three quarters, a 31% increase year-on-year, accounting for 83.9% of total revenue [3] - The "Brew Water" product line has expanded its market share significantly, contributing to the company's growth [7] Sales Channels - Revenue from distribution, direct sales, and online channels for the first three quarters of 2024 was 107.3 billion yuan, 14.5 billion yuan, and 3.3 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 41.7%, 62.4%, and 113.0% [4] - The company is actively expanding its offline channel network while leveraging online platforms like Douyin and Xiaohongshu to capture traffic [4] Regional Performance - Revenue from various regions in the first three quarters of 2024 showed significant growth, with Guangdong, East China, and North China achieving year-on-year increases of 19.7%, 49.9%, and 83.5%, respectively [4] Future Outlook - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2024-2026, increasing the net profit estimates to 32.44 billion yuan, 42.33 billion yuan, and 52.18 billion yuan, reflecting a positive outlook on its core products and market strategies [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [2][4]. Core Views - The company's performance continues to exceed expectations, with significant revenue and profit growth. For the first three quarters of 2024, total revenue reached 12.558 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 45.34%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.707 billion yuan, up 63.53% [2][3]. - The main product, Dongpeng Special Drink, shows rapid growth, contributing significantly to revenue, while the new product line "Bushi La" is gaining momentum [3][4]. - The company is expected to maintain its market share in the energy drink sector and continue the growth trajectory of its electrolyte water segment, which is seen as a second growth curve [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q1-Q3 2024, total revenue was 12.558 billion yuan, with a net profit of 2.707 billion yuan. In Q3 alone, revenue was 4.685 billion yuan, and net profit was 977 million yuan, reflecting year-on-year increases of 47.29% and 78.42%, respectively [2][3]. - The gross margin for Q1-Q3 2024 was 45.05%, with a net margin of 21.56%, showing improvements from the previous year [2][3]. Product and Market Analysis - Revenue from Dongpeng Special Drink, Bushi La, and other beverages for Q1-Q3 2024 was 10.507 billion yuan, 1.211 billion yuan, and 812 million yuan, respectively. Dongpeng Special Drink's revenue grew by 31.43% year-on-year [3]. - The company has expanded its distribution channels, with significant growth in direct sales and online channels, achieving year-on-year increases of 79% and 140%, respectively [3]. Earnings Forecast - The company is projected to achieve earnings per share (EPS) of 6.28 yuan, 8.23 yuan, and 10.28 yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 35, 27, and 22 times [4][6].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to the company [3]. Core Views - The company is a leader in the energy drink sector, accelerating its nationwide expansion. It has established nine production bases across various regions and achieved a sales revenue of 11.3 billion in 2023, with its flagship product, Dongpeng Special Drink, becoming a billion-level single product [1][11]. - The energy drink market is characterized by high demand and strong profitability, with a CAGR of 7% over the past five years. The competitive landscape is dominated by a few key players, with Red Bull holding a 53% market share and Dongpeng at approximately 31% [1][21]. - The company is actively developing new products in the functional beverage category, such as "Brewed Tea" and "Cocktails," which are expected to contribute significantly to future growth [1][11]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company has a long history in the energy drink market, transitioning from a state-owned enterprise to a private company in 2003 and listing on the stock exchange in 2021. It aims to become a leading multi-category beverage group in China [11][13]. Industry Analysis - The energy drink market in China is still in its growth phase, with a market size of 57.6 billion in 2023, reflecting an 8% year-on-year growth. The market is expected to continue growing due to increasing consumer demand and lifestyle changes [21][22]. - The industry has high entry barriers due to regulatory requirements for health certifications, making it less competitive compared to other beverage segments [21][24]. Competitive Landscape - The competitive dynamics are shifting, with Dongpeng gaining market share as Red Bull faces internal disputes and declining brand strength. Dongpeng's market share has increased to approximately 30.94% in 2023 [27][21]. - The company leverages its cost-effective product offerings and extensive distribution network to capture market opportunities [27][21]. Financial Analysis and Profit Forecast - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 3.216 billion, 4.194 billion, and 5.309 billion for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, reflecting growth rates of 57.7%, 30.4%, and 26.6% [2][3]. - The report estimates a reasonable price range of 242.10 to 258.24 per share for 2025, indicating a potential upside of 10-17% from the current stock price [3][2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Dongpeng Beverage (605499.SH) [1][6] Core Views - The company reported strong performance in Q3 2024, with revenue of 12.558 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 45.3%, and a net profit of 2.707 billion RMB, up 63.53% year-on-year [1] - The growth in the functional beverage segment remains robust, with the "Brewed Water" product exceeding expectations in Q3 [1] - The company is expected to continue benefiting from its national expansion strategy and the growth potential of its electrolyte water product line [1] Summary by Sections Performance Overview - For Q3 2024, Dongpeng Beverage achieved revenue of 4.685 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 47.29%, and a net profit of 977 million RMB, up 78.42% year-on-year [1] - The company’s Q3 2024 gross margin was 45.81%, an increase of 4.29 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was 20.85%, up 3.64 percentage points year-on-year [1] Product Analysis - In Q3 2024, revenue from Dongpeng Functional Beverage, Brewed Water, and other beverages was 3.652 billion RMB, 735 million RMB, and 281 million RMB respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 27.73%, 299.58%, and -12.07% [1] - The electrolyte water product is still in its early growth phase, indicating significant room for market penetration [1] Channel and Regional Performance - Revenue growth by channel in Q3 2024 was 41.0% for distribution, 79.0% for direct sales, and 140.0% for online channels [1] - The company added 11 new distributors in Q3, bringing the total to 2,993 [1] - Revenue growth in the Guangdong region was 23.8%, while other regions saw growth rates exceeding 40% [1] Financial Projections - The report raises profit forecasts for 2024-2026 by 8% each year, projecting net profits of 3.14 billion RMB, 4.04 billion RMB, and 5.04 billion RMB respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 54%, 29%, and 25% [1][3] - The projected P/E ratios for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 36x, 28x, and 22x respectively [1][3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, expecting strong performance in the next six months [3][7][13]. Core Insights - The company has shown significant growth in revenue and net profit, with a year-on-year revenue increase of 45.34% and a net profit increase of 63.53% for the first three quarters of 2024 [4][5]. - The gross margin and net margin have improved, with a gross margin of 45.05% and a net margin of 21.56% for the first three quarters of 2024, attributed to lower raw material costs [5][6]. - The company is focusing on expanding its product matrix and enhancing its market presence through a nationwide strategy, with notable growth in its core product and new offerings [6][7]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for 2024 to 2026 are as follows: 2024E at 16,199 million, 2025E at 20,591 million, and 2026E at 25,333 million, reflecting a compound annual growth rate [3][11]. - Net profit projections for the same period are: 2024E at 3,238 million, 2025E at 4,258 million, and 2026E at 5,341 million, indicating strong profitability growth [3][11]. - The company’s gross margin is expected to improve from 43.1% in 2023A to 46.8% in 2026E, while net margin is projected to rise from 18.1% to 21.1% over the same period [11][12]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is enhancing its distribution network and focusing on channel penetration, with significant revenue growth in regions like North China and Southwest China [6][7]. - The company aims to strengthen its market share in the energy drink sector while diversifying its product offerings to meet consumer demands [6][7].

证 券 研 究 报 告 东鹏饮料（605499）2024 年三季报点评 强推（维持） 主品扩张正盛，第二曲线更亮眼 目标价：250 元 当前价：220.68 元 事项： ❖ 公司发布 2024 年三季报，靠近前期预告上限。24 年前三季度实现营收 125.58 亿元，同比+45.34%；归母净利润 27.07 亿元，同比+63.53%；扣非归母净利润 26.63 亿元，同比+77.3%。单 Q3 实现营收 46.85 亿元，同比+47.29%；归母净 利润 9.77 亿元，同比+78.42%；扣非归母净利 9.56 亿元，同比+86.9%。 评论： ❖ 终端动销旺盛，报表质量较高、余力充足。公司终端动销持续旺盛，当前渠道 库存不足 50+天、同比下降约 1 个月。同时，24Q3 回款 51.1 亿、同比+37.6%， 期末合同负债为 23.8 亿、环比略降 1.2 亿，主要系去年报表回款大幅高于营收 （23 年回款、营收分别为 139 亿、112.6 亿）、合同负债相应快速增加，叠加 今年动销较快使得经销商加速兑换一元乐享，以及 9 月末渐入淡季渠道打款 季节性回落等因素影响。实际上，当前公司回款金额仍高于营 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported Q3 2024 results with revenue of 4.68 billion yuan (up 47.3%) and net profit attributable to shareholders of 980 million yuan (up 78.4%), exceeding market expectations [1] - The main business and new products both exceeded expectations, with the main business maintaining high growth and new product revenue significantly increasing [1][2] - The company is expected to achieve revenue of 15.91 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 41.2% [4] Revenue Analysis - The main business maintained high growth with Q3 special drink revenue accounting for 78%, up 28% year-on-year [1] - Revenue growth varied by region, with significant increases in Guangdong and Guangxi due to effective freezer deployment and inventory adjustments [1] - New product revenue accounted for 22% in Q3, with a year-on-year increase of 218%, and the "Water" product contributing 72% of new product revenue [1] Profit Analysis - Q3 gross margin increased by 4.3 percentage points to 45.8%, primarily due to lower raw material costs and economies of scale [1] - The net profit margin for Q3 increased by 3.6 percentage points to 20.9% [1] - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 3.20 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 57.1% [4] Financial Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 15.91 billion yuan, 20.38 billion yuan, and 25.68 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 3.20 billion yuan, 4.16 billion yuan, and 5.29 billion yuan [4][5] - The expected P/E ratios for the next three years are 36, 28, and 22 times [2]