Core Points - The launch of the China Drug Price Registration System aims to facilitate the globalization of Chinese innovative drugs and attract high-quality foreign drugs to the Chinese market, benefiting patients in China [1][4] - The system operates under a "one location acceptance, nationwide sharing, global openness" service mechanism, allowing pharmaceutical companies to independently declare and register drug prices [1][4] - The establishment of this system fills a gap in the national-level drug pricing disclosure framework in China, enhancing the credibility of registered prices compared to provincial systems [5] Group 1: System Overview - The China Drug Price Registration System (China Drug Registration) was officially launched on December 2, providing a platform for drug price registration and inquiry [1] - The system is a collaboration between the National Healthcare Security Administration and the Beijing Municipal Government, operated by a state-owned enterprise under a socialized operation model [1][4] - The registration process allows drug market authorization holders to voluntarily declare prices and is open for public inquiry, ensuring transparency [5] Group 2: Industry Impact - The system is expected to significantly impact the high-quality development of the pharmaceutical industry in China, aligning with the country's goal of building a healthy China and supporting the development of innovative drugs and medical devices [3][4] - By providing a platform for global price registration, the system helps Chinese pharmaceutical companies establish a comprehensive global pricing framework, enhancing the modernization of drug price governance [4][5] - The system's independent operation from provincial procurement platforms allows for a clearer distinction between market prices and negotiated prices under healthcare insurance [4][5]

Core Viewpoint - The approval of Xinmei Yue (Pikangqibai Injection) by the National Medical Products Administration marks a significant advancement in the treatment of moderate to severe plaque psoriasis, being the first IL-23p19 monoclonal antibody developed by a domestic company in China [1][2]. Group 1: Drug Approval and Market Impact - Xinmei Yue has been approved for use in adult patients with moderate to severe plaque psoriasis, a chronic and recurrent inflammatory disease affecting over 7 million patients in China, with a significant portion requiring lifelong management [1]. - The drug's approval is based on the results of the Phase III CLEAR-1 study, which demonstrated that over 80% of patients achieved a clearance of more than 90% of skin lesions after four months of treatment [2]. Group 2: Clinical Efficacy and Advantages - The CLEAR-1 study indicates that IL-23p19 targeted antibodies, like Pikangqibai, show significant advantages in maintaining long-term efficacy and convenience of use compared to existing treatments [2]. - Unlike most current biologics that require monthly or bi-monthly injections, Xinmei Yue has been engineered to extend its half-life, allowing for administration once every three months while maintaining strong efficacy, providing a new solution for long-term patient management [2].

Core Insights - The report indicates that the market is expected to experience an early "spring rally" due to easing external pressures and improving internal conditions [2][3] - The focus for December should be on growth sectors, particularly those aligned with the "14th Five-Year Plan" and new productive forces [3] Group 1: Market Environment - In November, market momentum was limited due to seasonal effects and external pressures, including tightening global liquidity and concerns over AI industry bubbles [1] - As of December, the pressure on the A-share market is gradually easing, with an 80% probability of a short-term interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, creating a warmer overall atmosphere [2] - The sentiment around AI stocks has stabilized, reducing the emotional pressure on related A-share sectors [2] Group 2: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on two main directions for investment in December: the AI industry chain and sectors related to the "14th Five-Year Plan" [3] - Specific sectors to watch include chip design, semiconductor equipment, and platform companies with full-stack technical capabilities [4] - High-growth areas such as energy storage and innovative pharmaceuticals are highlighted as potential investment opportunities [4] Group 3: Top Stock Picks - The report lists ten recommended stocks, including: - BeiGene (688235.SH) in the pharmaceutical sector, with a projected EPS growth from 3.66 in 2026 to 6.73 in 2027 [5] - Haisco (002653.SZ), also in pharmaceuticals, with a projected EPS of 0.70 in 2026 and 0.81 in 2027 [5] - Longking (600388.SH) in environmental services, with a projected EPS of 1.20 in 2026 and 1.37 in 2027 [5] - Maiwei (300751.SZ) in machinery, with a projected EPS of 3.14 in 2026 and 3.93 in 2027 [5] - Yutong Bus (600066.SH) in the automotive sector, with a projected EPS of 2.67 in 2026 and 3.18 in 2027 [5] - Cambricon (688256.SH) in electronics, with a projected EPS of 11.64 in 2026 and 20.88 in 2027 [5] - CATL (300750.SZ) in new energy, with a projected EPS of 18.90 in 2026 and 23.35 in 2027 [5] - Alibaba (9988.HK) in media and internet, with a projected EPS of 4.33 in 2026 and 6.44 in 2027 [5] - Xianle Health (300791.SZ) in food and beverage, with a projected EPS of 1.37 in 2026 and 1.64 in 2027 [5] - Wanhua Chemical (600309.SH) in energy and chemicals, with a projected EPS of 5.13 in 2026 and 5.79 in 2027 [5] Group 4: Financial Data - The report provides financial forecasts for the top stock picks, indicating expected revenue and net profit growth across various sectors [62][63] - For example, BeiGene is projected to achieve a revenue of 370.27 billion in 2025, increasing to 462.80 billion in 2026 [63] - CATL is expected to see significant growth, with projected revenues of 4226.04 billion in 2025 and 5349.47 billion in 2026 [63]

证券研究报告·行业跟踪周报·医药生物 医药生物行业跟踪周报 海外小核酸进入收获期，关注国内悦康、前 沿、福元等 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 2025 年 11 月 30 日 证券分析师 朱国广 执业证书：S0600520070004 zhugg@dwzq.com.cn 行业走势 -13% -10% -7% -4% -1% 2% 5% 8% 11% 14% 17% 20% 2024/12/2 2025/4/1 2025/7/30 2025/11/27 医药生物 沪深300 相关研究 《药店现金流稳健、估值低，重点推 荐益丰药房、大参林等》 2025-11-23 《医药行业 2025Q3 总结报告：CXO 及科研服务收入持续高增长，有望延 续》 2025-11-17 东吴证券研究所 1 / 28 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 ◼ 本周、年初至今 A 股医药指数涨幅分别为 2.67%、16.72%，相对沪深 300 的超额收益分别为 1.03%、1.68%；本周、年初至今恒生生物科技 指数涨跌幅分别为 4.30%、81.69%，相对于恒生科技指数跑赢 0.52 ...

Investment Summary - The innovative pharmaceutical sector is entering a commercialization harvest period, with significant performance improvements in the first three quarters of 2025 [5] - The medical device bidding market shows a substantial growth trend, with a 62.75% year-on-year increase in the first half of 2025 [22] - The rise of health-conscious consumer behavior is driving rapid market growth and innovation in health consumption [5] - Supportive policies from the government are catalyzing high-quality development in the pharmaceutical industry [5] Sector Performance Review - As of November 27, 2025, the pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector has seen a 16.56% increase since the beginning of the year, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.81 percentage points [8] - The chemical pharmaceutical sub-sector led the gains with a 33.67% increase, while the medical services and biological products sectors also performed well [8][12] Innovative Pharmaceuticals - Policy support is enhancing the entire chain of high-quality development, with significant improvements in the approval process for innovative drugs [15] - The number of approved innovative drugs has surged, with 48 new first-class innovative drugs approved in 2024, a fivefold increase compared to 2018 [15] - The domestic innovative drug market is expanding rapidly, with a projected market size of 1 trillion yuan by 2035 [21] Medical Insurance Market - The commercial insurance system is gradually improving, with multi-channel payment mechanisms being explored to meet public demand [5] - The aging population is increasing demand in chronic disease and rehabilitation sectors, with over 310 million people aged 60 and above in China by 2024 [5] Medical Devices - The medical device bidding market is recovering, with a 29.8% year-on-year growth in the third quarter of 2025 [22] - The overall revenue for the medical device sector in Q3 2025 was 604.49 billion yuan, showing a positive growth trend [22] Brain-Computer Interface - The brain-computer interface industry is expected to see significant growth, with potential market sizes ranging from 400 to 1450 billion USD by 2030-2040 [23] - National and local policies are promoting innovation in the brain-computer interface sector, with plans to establish several influential enterprises by 2030 [23][25] AI in Healthcare - The AI+ healthcare market is rapidly expanding, with a projected market size of 315.8 billion yuan by 2033, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 43% [27] - The AI pharmaceutical sector is also growing, with a market size increase from 0.7 million yuan in 2019 to 4.1 million yuan in 2023 [31] Traditional Chinese Medicine - The traditional Chinese medicine sector is experiencing revitalization through new consumption patterns, with a significant increase in the number of TCM clinics across the country [33] - The market for chronic disease management is expanding, with a projected size of 4 trillion yuan by 2024 [33] New Health Consumption - Policies promoting health consumption are driving rapid growth in the health consumption sector, with the total revenue of China's health industry reaching 9 trillion yuan in 2024 [34] - The health consumption market is characterized by rapid growth and continuous innovation in business models [34]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the GLP-1RA drug industry Core Insights - The GLP-1 receptor agonists (GLP-1RA) are a class of drugs that mimic the action of GLP-1, promoting insulin secretion and reducing appetite, leading to blood sugar control and weight loss [2][3] - The global market for GLP-1 drugs is dominated by semaglutide and tirzepatide, with semaglutide achieving sales of $16.6 billion in the first half of 2025, making it the top-selling drug globally [8] - The expiration of patents for major drugs is expected to lead to a surge in generic versions, increasing market competition and reducing treatment costs [11] Summary by Sections GLP-1 Drug Classification and Mechanism - GLP-1RA drugs are categorized into short-acting, long-acting, and ultra-long-acting formulations, each with different pharmacokinetic profiles [2][3] - These drugs are effective in treating conditions such as obesity, type 2 diabetes, and metabolic disorders [4] Market Performance and Patent Expiration - The sales of GLP-1 drugs have shown significant growth, with semaglutide's weight management product Wegovy achieving $5.441 billion in sales, a 78% increase year-over-year [8] - Key patents for drugs like liraglutide have expired, while others like semaglutide will expire in 2026, paving the way for biosimilars [9][11] R&D Progress in China - Chinese companies are advancing in the development of dual-target and multi-target GLP-1 drugs, with significant progress in clinical trials [13][14] - The focus is shifting towards expanding indications for GLP-1 drugs beyond diabetes and obesity to include conditions like Alzheimer's and cardiovascular diseases [15] Future Market Potential - The Chinese GLP-1 market is projected to grow from 9.62 billion yuan in 2020 to 71.7 billion yuan by 2029, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 22.1% [22] - The inclusion of GLP-1 drugs in national health insurance is expected to enhance market penetration and accessibility [22] Innovation Trends - The industry is witnessing a trend towards multi-target drug development and the introduction of oral formulations to improve patient compliance [28][29] - The competitive landscape is intensifying as both original and generic drug manufacturers seek to establish a foothold in the market [30][31]

Core Viewpoint - Baijie Shenzhou's net profit attributable to shareholders for the first three quarters of 2025 is approximately 1.139 billion yuan, with Q3 net profit around 689 million yuan [1] Financial Performance - In Q3, Baijie Shenzhou's global revenue totaled 1 billion USD, representing a year-on-year growth of 50.8% [1] - In the United States, revenue for Baijie Shenzhou reached 738.7 million USD in Q3, compared to 503.7 million USD in the same period last year, marking a year-on-year increase of 46.6% [1] Guidance and Projections - The company has raised its full-year performance guidance for 2025, expecting total revenue to be between 36.2 billion yuan and 38.1 billion yuan [1] - Research, sales, and management expenses are projected to be between 29.5 billion yuan and 30.9 billion yuan [1] Valuation - Considering the rapid approval and market expansion of new indications for its products, the company has adjusted its previous profit forecasts [1] - Based on the closing price of 286.81 yuan per share on November 27, 2025, the price-to-earnings ratios are projected to be 547, 86, and 50 times [1] - Given the significant growth potential in the company's performance, a "buy" rating is maintained [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [5] Core Insights - The company reported a total revenue of approximately 27.595 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 44.2%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was approximately 1.139 billion yuan, with a non-recurring net profit of about 969 million yuan. For Q3 2025, the total revenue was approximately 10.077 billion yuan, up 41.1% year-on-year, with a net profit of about 689 million yuan and a non-recurring net profit of approximately 708 million yuan. The company has raised its full-year revenue guidance for 2025, expecting total revenue to be between 36.2 billion yuan and 38.1 billion yuan [1][2][3]. Revenue Growth Drivers - The adjustment in expected revenue growth is primarily attributed to the leading position of Baiyueze® in the U.S. market and its ongoing expansion in Europe and other key global markets. The adjustments in R&D, sales, and management expenses are mainly due to prudent investments that promote revenue and pipeline growth, achieving significant operational efficiency [2]. Market Performance - In Q3, Baiyueze® generated global revenue totaling 1 billion USD, a year-on-year increase of 50.8%. In the U.S., revenue reached 738.7 million USD, up 46.6% from the previous year, driven by robust demand across all indications and moderate gains from net pricing. In Europe, revenue totaled 163.2 million USD, a 67.8% increase year-on-year, benefiting from market share growth in major European markets. In China, revenue was 92.4 million USD, up 36.2% year-on-year, while sales in other countries reached 46.4 million USD, a 116.6% increase [3]. Pipeline and Future Prospects - The company announced that nearly 50 abstracts from its hematology research projects will be presented at this year's ASH annual meeting, including 6 oral presentations. Sotokura is gradually becoming a potential best-in-class BCL2 inhibitor, offering better efficacy, higher safety, and greater convenience compared to the first-generation BCL2 inhibitor, venetoclax. The U.S. FDA has granted breakthrough therapy designation to Sotokura for the treatment of relapsed/refractory mantle cell lymphoma [4]. Financial Forecast - The company forecasts revenues for 2025-2027 to be 37.7 billion yuan, 48 billion yuan, and 55.1 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 38%, 28%, and 15%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 736 million yuan, 4.692 billion yuan, and 7.982 billion yuan for the same years, reflecting significant growth [8][10].

Core Viewpoint - BeiGene's stock price has shown significant growth this year, with a year-to-date increase of 80.72%, indicating strong market performance and investor interest [1][2]. Group 1: Stock Performance - As of November 27, BeiGene's stock price reached 291.00 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 4.60 billion CNY and a market capitalization of 448.34 billion CNY [1]. - The stock has experienced a 2.62% increase over the last five trading days, a 3.26% increase over the last twenty days, and an 18.29% increase over the last sixty days [1]. - The company has appeared on the "龙虎榜" (a stock trading list) once this year, with the most recent appearance on September 2 [1]. Group 2: Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, BeiGene reported a revenue of 27.595 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 44.21% [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the same period was 1.139 billion CNY, showing a substantial year-on-year increase of 130.88% [2]. Group 3: Shareholder Information - As of September 30, 2025, the number of BeiGene's shareholders increased to 36,200, a rise of 55.33% compared to the previous period [2]. - The average number of circulating shares per shareholder decreased by 35.79% to 3,195 shares [2]. - Notable changes in institutional holdings include a decrease in shares held by several major shareholders, with new entries from others [2].

Group 1: Market Overview - In the US and five European countries, innovative drugs account for 70%-80% of the local market, while in China, the market share of innovative drugs is only 8.6% [1][10] - The Chinese innovative drug market is experiencing a "structural turning point," which is expected to reverse the downward trend in the pharmaceutical industry [1] - The domestic pharmaceutical terminal sales are projected to show negative growth starting in 2024, with over 30% of regulated pharmaceutical companies reporting losses in the first half of this year [1][3] Group 2: Industry Challenges - The pharmaceutical industry is facing a survival crisis due to external growth factors diminishing, and the capital market's enthusiasm for business development (BD) transactions cooling down [3] - The low concentration in several sub-sectors, particularly in the generic drug industry, has led to price competition, which is a key constraint on the development of the Chinese pharmaceutical industry [3][4] - The average price level of generic drugs has been further reduced due to policies on price governance and drug price comparison [4] Group 3: Innovative Drug Growth - Despite the overall revenue decline in the pharmaceutical industry, innovative drug companies have maintained good growth and profitability, with some achieving record high revenues [1][7] - The market size of innovative drugs (including biosimilars) reached 120 billion yuan in 2023, with a growth rate of 27% [7] - The revenue growth rate for biological products was 2.2%, with profit growth at 10.6%, indicating a strong performance in the innovative drug sector [8][7] Group 4: Regulatory and Policy Developments - The National Healthcare Security Administration has announced reforms to improve the immediate settlement of medical insurance funds, which is expected to alleviate the financial pressure on hospitals and improve drug payment timelines [5][6] - The implementation of policies to expand the scope of drug procurement and price control is expected to further impact the market dynamics [4][10] Group 5: Future Opportunities - The commercial potential of innovative drugs is anticipated to become the core driver of industry growth during the downturn [7] - The increasing number of innovative drug approvals and the shift in hospital medication structure are expected to enhance the market share of innovative products [7] - The industry is encouraged to build international innovation platforms to capture a larger share of the global market [2][18]