证券之星消息，1月13日工程机械板块较上一交易日下跌0.37%，邵阳液压领跌。当日上证指数报收于 4138.76，下跌0.64%。深证成指报收于14169.4，下跌1.37%。工程机械板块个股涨跌见下表： | 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 301279 | 金直科技 | 35.52 | 5.18% | 7.43万 | | 2.68亿 | | 301446 | 福事特 | 37.70 | 5.16% | 3.71万 | | = 1.38亿 | | 920942 | 恒立钻具 | 34.72 | 3.64% | 4.78万 | | 1.67亿 | | 601100 | 恒立液压 | 120.29 | 2.29% | 15.95万 | | 19.32亿 | | 603298 | 杭叉集团 | 28.03 | 1.52% | 11.83万 | | 3.32亿 | | 920174 | 五新随装 | 50.15 | 0.93% | 3.45万 | | 1.73亿 | | 60 ...

Core Insights - The report from China Galaxy Securities indicates a positive growth outlook for excavator sales, with domestic and export sales expected to increase by 10.9% and 26.9% respectively by December 2025 [1][2] Group 1: Excavator Sales - In December, a total of 23,095 excavators were sold, representing a year-on-year increase of 19.2%, with domestic sales at 10,331 units (+10.9%) and exports at 12,764 units (+26.9%) [2] - For the year 2025, total excavator sales are projected to reach 235,257 units, a 17% increase year-on-year, with domestic sales of 118,518 units (+17.9%) and exports of 116,739 units (+16.1%) [2] - Both medium and large excavators showed positive growth in domestic sales, while large excavator exports continue to perform strongly [1][2] Group 2: Loader and Other Machinery Sales - In December, loader domestic sales increased by 17.6% and exports surged by 41.5%. For 2025, domestic sales are expected to grow by 22.1% and exports by 14.6% [2] - In November, various machinery categories such as truck cranes, crawler cranes, and forklifts experienced double-digit growth in domestic sales [2] - Specific sales growth rates for November include: truck cranes overall +17% (domestic +26%, export +8.5%), crawler cranes overall +66% (domestic +102%, export +53%), and forklifts overall +14% (domestic +24%, export +0.7%) [2] Group 3: Working Hours and Export Data - December saw a decline in average working hours for major construction machinery products, averaging 76.5 hours, down 18.6% year-on-year [3] - From January to November, China's construction machinery export value reached $53.756 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 12.4% [4] - Komatsu's data for November indicates that North America and Indonesia saw positive growth in working hours, while Europe and Japan experienced declines [3] Group 4: Industry Outlook and Recommendations - The industry is expected to benefit from a positive demand environment, with recommendations for leading manufacturers such as SANY Heavy Industry, XCMG, LiuGong, and Zoomlion, as well as core component manufacturers like Hengli Hydraulic [5]

Group 1 - A total of 7 stocks received buy ratings from brokerages on January 9, with 1 stock announcing a target price [1] - Based on the highest target price, XCMG's target price indicates a potential increase of 33.22% [1] - Among the stocks with buy ratings, 4 maintained their ratings while 3 received ratings for the first time [1] Group 2 - The sectors with the highest number of stocks receiving buy ratings include Automotive and Auto Parts (3 stocks), Capital Goods (2 stocks), and Food, Beverage, and Tobacco (1 stock) [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the mechanical industry, with a focus on AI equipment and consumables, as well as engineering machinery [1]. Core Insights - The mechanical industry is expected to benefit from the acceleration of AI applications, particularly in high-performance servers and GPU demand, driven by the rapid iteration of AI models and smart hardware [7]. - The excavator market is projected to exceed expectations in both domestic and international sales, with a forecasted 17% year-on-year growth in 2025, supported by government policies and infrastructure projects [7]. - The report emphasizes the potential for a new recovery cycle in the equipment industry, driven by monetary and fiscal policy support, and suggests focusing on key companies across various segments [7]. Summary by Sections Key Company Earnings Forecast, Valuation, and Investment Ratings - Companies such as 汇川技术 (Inovance Technology), 法兰泰克 (Falan Tech), and 信捷电气 (Xinjie Electric) are rated as "Strong Buy" with projected EPS growth and favorable PE ratios [2][8]. - For example, 汇川技术 is expected to have an EPS of 2.11元 in 2025, with a PE ratio of 37.13, indicating strong growth potential [2]. Industry and Company Investment Views - The report highlights the AI equipment and consumables sector as a key area for investment, with significant growth expected in the PCB market driven by AI infrastructure needs [9]. - The engineering machinery sector is also highlighted, with companies like 三一重工 (Sany Heavy Industry) and 徐工机械 (XCMG) expected to benefit from increased domestic demand and international market recovery [7][9]. Key Data Tracking - The report provides macroeconomic data indicating a total market capitalization of 70,956.73 billion yuan for the mechanical industry, with 636 listed companies [4]. - The mechanical sector has shown strong performance, with a 5.7% increase in the sector index over the past week, outperforming major indices [11][14].

Investment Rating - The SW Machinery Equipment Index increased by 5.39% during the week of January 5 to January 9, 2026, ranking 10th among 31 primary industry categories [12][14]. Core Insights - The report anticipates a significant increase in domestic rocket launches in 2026, driven by the urgent demand for satellite deployment [21]. - The robotics sector is expected to experience a strong market trend in Q1 2026, with advancements in humanoid robots [21]. - The nuclear fusion energy sector is highlighted as a potential investment opportunity during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, with significant technological breakthroughs reported [22]. - The global shipbuilding industry is showing signs of recovery, with new ship prices increasing and order volumes significantly improving [31]. - The engineering machinery sector is entering an upward cycle, with robust domestic and export sales of excavators and loaders [35]. - The report indicates varying degrees of industry performance, with general machinery under pressure, while engineering machinery and railway equipment show positive trends [46][45]. Summary by Sections 1. Stock Portfolio - Recommended stocks include Chaojie Co., Feiwo Technology, Guanglian Aviation, Hengli Hydraulic, Lianchuang Optoelectronics, XCMG, SANY Heavy Industry, Zoomlion, LiuGong, and China Shipbuilding [10]. 2. Market Review - The SW Machinery Equipment Index rose by 5.39% in the first week of 2026, outperforming the CSI 300 Index, which increased by 2.79% [12][14]. 3. Key Data Tracking 3.1 General Machinery - The manufacturing PMI was reported at 50.1% in December, indicating a slight recovery [23]. 3.2 Engineering Machinery - Excavator sales reached 23,095 units in December, marking a year-on-year increase of 17.6% [35]. 3.3 Railway Equipment - Railway fixed asset investment has maintained a steady growth rate of around 6% since 2025 [45]. 3.4 Shipbuilding - The global new ship price index reached 184.65 in December, with a month-on-month increase of 0.17% [46]. 3.5 Oil Service Equipment - The oil service equipment sector is stabilizing, with high demand in the Middle East [49]. 3.6 Industrial Gases - A decrease in raw material prices is expected to improve profitability in the steel sector, boosting demand for industrial gases [55]. 3.7 Gas Turbines - GEV's new gas turbine orders grew by 39% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025, indicating a robust market [57].

Market Performance - The engineering machinery sector increased by 2.52% on January 9, with Shaoyang Hydraulic leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4120.43, up 0.92%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14120.15, up 1.15% [1] Individual Stock Performance - Shaoyang Hydraulic (301079) closed at 58.45, up 17.84% with a trading volume of 407,900 shares and a transaction value of 2.382 billion [1] - Hailun Zhe (300201) closed at 7.46, up 9.54% with a trading volume of 982,800 shares and a transaction value of 715 million [1] - Sany Heavy Industry (600031) closed at 22.28, up 3.97% with a trading volume of 1,104,200 shares and a transaction value of 2.444 billion [1] - XCMG Machinery (000425) closed at 11.80, up 3.69% with a trading volume of 947,300 shares and a transaction value of 1.116 billion [1] Capital Flow Analysis - The engineering machinery sector saw a net inflow of 127 million from institutional investors, while retail investors experienced a net inflow of 56.445 million [2] - The sector had a net outflow of 183 million from speculative funds [2] Detailed Capital Flow for Key Stocks - Sany Heavy Industry (600031) had a net inflow of 88.856 million from institutional investors, but a net outflow of 49.819 million from speculative funds [3] - Hailun Zhe (300201) saw a net inflow of 41.161 million from institutional investors, with a small net outflow from retail investors [3] - XCMG Machinery (000425) had a net inflow of 37.036 million from institutional investors, but also faced outflows from both speculative and retail investors [3]

Group 1 - The report emphasizes the growth potential driven by AI and the reversal of the anti-involution cycle in the manufacturing sector [1] - Key companies highlighted include Yokogawa Electric, Zhejiang Rongtai, Shanghai Yanpu, Taotao Vehicle, Sany Heavy Industry, Zoomlion, XCMG, and others [2][3] - The core investment strategy focuses on sectors such as machinery, lithium battery equipment, and intelligent robotics, with a positive outlook for 2026 [4][6] Group 2 - The machinery sector is expected to see a strong start in 2026, with continued focus on technological growth in areas like embodied intelligence and commercial aerospace [4] - The report notes that the lithium battery equipment sector has crossed a turning point, with demand driven by energy storage and overseas power batteries, projecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 19% from 2024 to 2027 [6][10] - The report predicts significant profit growth for key companies, with expected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 being 0.13 billion, 0.84 billion, and 1.90 billion respectively, indicating a CAGR of approximately 290% [11][17]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [6] Core Views - The report highlights that the demand for mining machinery is expected to remain strong due to high global copper prices, which have risen over 30% since the beginning of the year, reaching nearly $12,000 per ton [2][5] - The export of excavators is becoming a key growth driver, with December export growth accelerating by 8 percentage points month-on-month, particularly in large excavators, which saw a year-on-year growth of over 60% [2][4] - The domestic market for excavators is anticipated to gradually recover, supported by major infrastructure projects and a potential revival in the real estate sector [4][5] Summary by Sections Excavator Sales and Exports - In December 2025, excavator sales reached 23,000 units, with domestic sales of 10,000 units (up 11% year-on-year) and exports of 13,000 units (up 27% year-on-year) [1] - The export of second-hand machinery has also seen significant growth, with year-on-year increases of 69% and 80% in October and November, respectively, indicating effective clearance of existing equipment [3] Domestic Market Recovery - The report notes that the domestic sales of small and medium excavators improved in December, while large excavators continued to show resilience despite a slowdown in growth [4] - Key infrastructure projects, such as those along the Yarlung Tsangpo River, are expected to support the recovery of domestic demand for construction machinery [4][5] Recommendations for Key Companies - The report recommends several companies for investment, including SANY Heavy Industry, XCMG, Liugong, and Hengli Hydraulic, all of which are expected to benefit from the ongoing demand in both domestic and international markets [8][17]

Core Insights - XCMG Machinery, in collaboration with its Nordic dealer ELVATE, sponsored the FIM SuperEnduro World Championship in Stockholm, showcasing its equipment and technical support in a high-profile motorsports event [1][2] Group 1: Event Sponsorship and Collaboration - The event marked a significant partnership where XCMG provided a comprehensive "XCMG Solution" for the motorsports ecosystem in Sweden [1] - The SuperEnduro track design required precise construction, with soil moisture levels maintained between 8% and 12% and compaction density at 85% to 90% to ensure stability and rider traction [2] Group 2: Equipment Performance and Reliability - XCMG deployed a fleet of machines, including the XC968EV electric wheel loader and XE270EV electric excavator, which performed efficiently in constructing ramps and compacting the track surface [3] - The XE260E excavator facilitated efficient soil spreading and shaping, while the XC7-TV12 tracked skid steer loader adapted well to complex terrain [3] - During the race, XCMG machines were crucial for track repairs, with maintenance required every 20 to 30 minutes to ensure rider safety [4] Group 3: Customer Engagement and Future Prospects - The reliability of XCMG equipment during the event led to additional customer orders for ELVATE on-site [6] - XCMG plans to continue collaborating with partners to expand its solutions across various applications [6]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call on the Engineering Machinery Industry Industry Overview - The domestic engineering machinery market is experiencing a rebound, primarily driven by replacement demand, with a notable increase in the share of small excavators. It is expected that annual excavator sales will double from 100,000 units to 200,000-300,000 units over the next 3-5 years [1][4] - Non-excavator categories such as cranes and concrete equipment are following a similar logic, having seen significant declines previously and currently being at low levels with an existing replacement cycle. The growth in excavators is anticipated to drive growth in non-excavator categories, marking the beginning of an upward cycle in the domestic engineering machinery sector [1][5] Core Insights and Arguments - The overseas market has become a major source of revenue and profit for engineering machinery companies, with companies like SANY and XCMG reporting overseas revenue contributions of 40%-60% and profit contributions of 80%-100% [1][6] - The global engineering machinery market is projected to show cyclical recovery in 2026, with strong growth in markets such as Russia, Indonesia, the Middle East, South America, and Africa, while the US and European markets are also beginning to recover, aided by interest rate cuts stimulating fixed asset investment cycles [1][8][9] - Greenfield investments are highly correlated with engineering machinery growth, leading by about three years. In 2023, greenfield investments reached over $700 billion, indicating a significant increase in demand for engineering machinery in 2025 and 2026 [1][10] Domestic Market Dynamics - Despite a decline in working hours, excavator sales have turned positive due to replacement demand. As of the end of 2023, the excavator ownership in China is approximately 2 million units, with construction accounting for 75% of the demand. If real estate demand declines by 80%, the need for excavators would still be around 178,000 units annually [4] - The current replacement cycle in China is estimated at 8-10 years, but as the market matures, it may shorten to 4-5 years, similar to mature markets in North America and Europe, leading to more frequent replacement cycles and increased new machine sales [4] Non-Excavator Categories - Non-excavator categories are expected to grow as excavator sales increase, with companies reporting positive trends in these segments. The overall upward cycle for domestic engineering machinery is just beginning [5] Overseas Market Importance - The overseas market is crucial for the engineering machinery industry, with significant revenue and profit contributions from international sales. The focus of investment should be on overseas markets rather than solely on domestic performance [6] Regional Performance - Data from January to November 2026 shows positive trends across major regions, with Russia experiencing nearly 24% growth in November and the US and Western Europe also showing recovery. China's exports to North America and Western Europe have seen growth rates of 25% and 28%, respectively [7] Profitability and Future Outlook - Chinese manufacturers have a competitive price advantage in the mid-to-small tonnage segment, achieving over 80% market share in key markets like Russia and Indonesia. The profitability in these regions remains strong, with net profit margins exceeding 10% in Russia and 16% in Indonesia [12][14] - The engineering machinery sector is expected to see significant profit growth due to low domestic market bases, increasing overseas market cycles, and improved operational leverage [16][22] Investment Attractiveness - The engineering machinery sector is currently highly attractive for investment, with the domestic market at a low point and strong replacement demand, alongside favorable overseas market conditions and high profitability potential. Companies like SANY, XCMG, Zoomlion, LiuGong, and Hengli Hydraulic are recommended for investment consideration [22]