Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 11.22 RMB based on a 17x PE for 2025 [3]. Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from state-owned enterprise reforms and improved profitability, with a projected net profit margin increase of 3.2 percentage points from 2022 to Q3 2024 [1]. - Domestic demand for excavators is anticipated to recover, with a forecast of 100,500 units sold in 2024, representing an 11.7% year-on-year increase [1]. - The mining machinery segment is poised for significant growth, with expected revenues of 8.501 billion, 11.552 billion, and 15.445 billion RMB for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, reflecting growth rates of 45.1%, 35.9%, and 33.7% [2]. Summary by Sections Investment Logic - The company has optimized its revenue structure by merging with Xugong Limited, incorporating high-margin products such as earthmoving and mining machinery [1]. - The focus on improving gross margins and reducing risk exposure has been emphasized through market-oriented executive compensation and stock incentives linked to ROE and net profit [1]. - The company is expected to see a revenue growth rate of -2.7%, +11.5%, and +14.7% from 2024 to 2026 [1]. Mining Machinery - The global open-pit mining machinery market exceeds 37 billion USD, with a projected 3% year-on-year increase in demand for 2024 [2]. - The company has secured nearly 4 billion RMB in orders from top foreign clients, indicating a potential breakout period for its mining machinery segment [2]. - The company’s mining machinery revenue is expected to grow significantly, with projections of 8.501 billion, 11.552 billion, and 15.445 billion RMB for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [2]. Profit Forecast, Valuation, and Rating - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 90.317 billion, 100.662 billion, and 115.458 billion RMB from 2024 to 2026, with corresponding net profits of 5.946 billion, 7.799 billion, and 10.263 billion RMB [3]. - The expected PE ratios for the same period are 19, 14, and 11 times respectively [3].

投资逻辑： 国企改革，盈利能力优化。品类扩张：公司吸收合并徐工有限后， 并入了土方机械、矿业机械等高毛利的产品，整体收入结构得以优 化。经营管理：改革后，公司更加注重毛利率提升、风险敞口压降， 强调高管薪酬市场化考核、股权激励关联 ROE 和净利润。国企改 革推动公司盈利能力提升，22-24Q1-Q3 公司净利率提升 3.2pcts。 看好国内外需求共振带动公司收入恢复增长。国内：24 年全年挖 机内销达 10.05 万台，同比+11.7%，挖机内销恢复正增长。公司国 内挖掘机市占率位于行业第二，有望受益于挖掘机内销进入常态 化增长。起重机作为挖掘机后周期品种，内销有望企稳回暖，公司 25 年国内收入增速有望转正。海外：公司欧美地区收入占海外收 入的 10%左右，受欧美需求波动影响较小，且有望受益于东南亚、 拉美地区等新兴地区景气度上行。国内外共振带动下，预计 24-26 年公司收入增速为-2.7%/+11.5%/+14.7%。 矿山机械：头部外资客户订单落地，或迎来奇点时刻。需求端：全 球露天矿山机械市场规模超 370 亿美元，24 年 10-12 月全球矿山 机械需求同比+3%，出现需求拐点。2024 年 ...

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for XCMG [4]. Core Views - XCMG is a leading player in the engineering machinery sector, benefiting from a recovery in traditional segments and breakthroughs in emerging sectors like mining machinery and aerial work platforms. The company is expected to enter a new growth phase, supported by industry recovery and a strong dividend policy [4][5]. - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 6.2 billion, 8.0 billion, and 10.0 billion CNY for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 18.2, 14.1, and 11.2 [4]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - XCMG is recognized as a comprehensive leader in engineering machinery, with a diverse product range and a strong focus on technological innovation. The company has established numerous R&D platforms and has received multiple national awards for technological advancements [15]. - The company is positioned as a significant player in both domestic and international markets, ranking among the top in various machinery categories [21][39]. 2. Industry Dynamics - The engineering machinery sector is expected to experience a rebound driven by domestic demand and policy support, with excavator sales projected to recover to a mid-level of 150,000 to 200,000 units annually [5]. - The global excavator market saw sales of 540,000 units in 2023, with China accounting for 90,000 units, indicating substantial growth potential in overseas markets [5]. 3. Mining Machinery Market - The global mining machinery market is valued at approximately 118.3 billion USD, with XCMG being a top player in this segment. The company is well-positioned to capitalize on the upcoming replacement cycle in mining equipment [6][37]. 4. Corporate Reform and Strategy - XCMG's mixed-ownership reform is expected to enhance operational flexibility and profitability, with commitments to return at least 40% of distributable profits as dividends over the next three years [7]. - The company has a robust international presence, with overseas revenue accounting for 40% of total income in 2023, reflecting a significant increase from previous years [56]. 5. Financial Performance and Projections - XCMG's revenue for 2023 was approximately 129.6 billion USD, with a global market share of 5.3%, ranking it third globally [21][24]. - The company anticipates revenue growth in the coming years, with projected revenues of 91.998 billion, 104.148 billion, and 118.582 billion CNY for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [8].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for XCMG Machinery (000425.SZ) for the first time [4]. Core Views - XCMG Machinery is a leading player in the engineering machinery sector, benefiting from the recovery of traditional segments and breakthroughs in emerging sectors like mining machinery and aerial work platforms. The company is expected to enter a new growth phase, supported by industry recovery and a strong dividend policy [4][5]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - XCMG Machinery is recognized as a comprehensive leader in engineering machinery, with a diverse product range and a strong focus on technological innovation. The company has established numerous R&D platforms and has received multiple national awards for its technological advancements [15][21]. Financial Performance - The company reported a total revenue of 93.82 billion yuan in 2022, with a projected revenue of 104.15 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 13.2% [8]. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to grow from 6.18 billion yuan in 2024 to 10.04 billion yuan in 2026 [8]. Market Dynamics - The engineering machinery industry is poised for a recovery, with domestic excavator sales expected to rebound to a central level of 150,000 to 200,000 units annually, driven by replacement demand and policy support [5]. The global excavator market saw sales of 540,000 units in 2023, with China accounting for 90,000 units [5]. Emerging Opportunities - The mining machinery segment is identified as a key growth area, with the global market size reaching 118.3 billion USD in 2023. XCMG is positioned as a top player in this market, with significant potential for growth as the industry undergoes a replacement cycle [6][37]. Corporate Governance and Strategy - XCMG's mixed-ownership reform is expected to enhance operational flexibility and profitability. The company has committed to returning at least 40% of its distributable profits as dividends over the next three years, reinforcing its commitment to shareholder value [7][40]. International Expansion - The company has made significant strides in international markets, with overseas revenue reaching 37.2 billion yuan in 2023, accounting for 40% of total revenue. This segment has shown a year-on-year growth of 34% [56][58].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to the company, with a reasonable valuation range of 9.38 to 11.39 CNY per share, corresponding to a PE ratio of 14 to 17 times for 2025 [4][6]. Core Insights - The company is a leading player in the domestic engineering machinery sector, with a comprehensive product portfolio including cranes, excavators, loaders, rollers, and concrete machinery. It ranks fourth globally and first in China with a sales revenue of 12.964 billion USD in 2023 [1][17]. - The domestic market is stabilizing, with expectations for a recovery in demand driven by equipment replacement cycles and supportive government policies. The overseas market presents significant growth opportunities, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 43.84% in excavator exports from 2015 to 2023 [2][4]. - The company's competitive edge is enhanced through state-owned enterprise reforms and an expanding international presence, with overseas revenue increasing from 8.26% in 2020 to 40.09% in 2023 [3][4]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company is recognized as a leader in the engineering machinery industry, with a strong backing from its controlling shareholder, Xugong Group. It has achieved significant milestones, including the acquisition of key assets and the establishment of a global marketing network [1][33]. Financial Performance - In 2023, the company reported revenues of 92.848 billion CNY, a slight decrease of 1.03% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 23.51% to 5.326 billion CNY [5][43]. - The forecast for net profit from 2024 to 2026 is projected to be 6.309 billion CNY, 7.961 billion CNY, and 10.211 billion CNY, respectively, indicating a steady growth trajectory [4][5]. Market Dynamics - The global engineering machinery market was valued at 243.4 billion USD in 2023, with China’s market share increasing from 13.4% in 2013 to 17.2% in 2023 [2][66][67]. - The domestic market is expected to stabilize due to infrastructure investments and a recovery in real estate, which are crucial for the demand for engineering machinery [70]. Competitive Landscape - The competitive landscape remains stable, with leading companies maintaining their market positions. The company ranks fourth globally, with significant market shares in various machinery segments [67][68]. Future Outlook - The company is well-positioned for future growth, driven by ongoing reforms, international expansion, and a focus on high-margin products. The expected recovery in domestic demand and continued growth in overseas markets are key factors for its performance [3][4][43].

证券代码：000425 证券简称：徐工机械 公告编号：2025-03 徐工集团工程机械股份有限公司 关于回购公司股份注销的进展公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确、完整，没有虚假记载、 误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 徐工集团工程机械股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）分别于 2024 年 4 月 28 日、2024 年 5 月 22 日召开第九届董事会第十七 次会议、2023 年年度股东大会，审议通过了《关于回购公司股份 的议案》，基于对未来发展的信心和对公司价值的认可，为维护广 大投资者利益，增强投资者信心，提升公司资本市场形象，在考 虑经营情况、财务状况及未来发展战略的基础上，同意公司以自 有资金通过二级市场回购公司股份，本次回购的股份将用于减少 公司注册资本，并自回购完成之日起十日内注销。本次回购资金 总额不超过人民币 60,000 万元（含），不低于人民币 30,000 万元 （含），回购价格不超过人民币 8.5 元/股（含）。具体回购股份的 数量以回购期限届满时实际回购的股份数量为准。 本次回购股份的实施期限自公司股东大会审议通过回购股 份方案之日起不超过十二个月。具体内容详见公司刊登在巨 ...

Market Outlook - The domestic market is expected to gradually enter an upward cycle, with signs of recovery in the internal sales of the industry, particularly in earthmoving machinery [2][3]. - The company maintains an optimistic outlook on the engineering machinery industry, driven by factors such as uneven urban-rural development and the rapid growth of green energy [2]. Export Market Expectations - The company anticipates continued good performance in the overseas market, with export revenue expected to maintain strong growth [3]. - The international revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 accounted for 46.7% of the company's total revenue [3]. Product and Revenue Breakdown - In the first half of 2024, the export product breakdown is as follows: earthmoving machinery 38%, lifting machinery 26%, mining machinery 8%, and road machinery 7% [4]. - Revenue from North America accounted for approximately 1% of the company's total revenue in 2024 [4]. Profit Margin and Cost Management - The company believes there is further room for improvement in product gross margins, with strategies focused on stabilizing prices, reducing costs, and adjusting product and market structures [3]. International Aid Projects - The company has maintained a leading position in public bidding for engineering machinery procurement in international aid projects [4]. Artificial Intelligence Initiatives - The company has established an AI department to explore applications of AI in engineering machinery, achieving breakthroughs in intelligent perception, decision-making, and planning [5]. - A strategic partnership was formed with the China Industrial AI Research Institute to enhance the integration of AI technology in engineering machinery [5]. Robotics Development - Currently, the company does not produce humanoid robots but has established a subsidiary focused on developing various types of specialized robots for industrial automation and emergency response [5].

Core Viewpoint - The company expects continued strong performance in overseas markets this year, with export revenue projected to maintain good growth [1] Group 1: Market Growth Potential - The overseas market presents growth characteristics for domestic brands, with sustained demand being released [1] - The improvement in the quality of domestic products and the enhancement of overseas channel layouts contribute to the increasing competitiveness of domestic brands [1] - There remains significant room for growth in market share across major regional markets for most products [1] Group 2: Strategic Adjustments - Domestic key enterprises are adjusting global capacity planning and implementing localization strategies to accelerate globalization [1] - Overall, the sales volume of domestic brands in the overseas market is expected to continue its upward trend, representing an important growth point for the construction machinery industry [1]

Group 1: Domestic Market Outlook - The company anticipates positive signs in the domestic market, particularly in earthmoving machinery, which has shown growth for several consecutive months [2] - The "two-step" strategy proposed by the government is still in its initial phase, but the company maintains an optimistic outlook on the economy and the engineering machinery industry [2] - Key drivers for growth include urbanization, significant investment growth, the development of the new energy sector, equipment renewal needs, and growth potential in niche markets [2] Group 2: Profitability and Dividends - The company believes there is further room for improvement in product gross margins, with strategies focused on stabilizing prices, reducing costs, and adjusting product and market structures [3] - The company plans to maintain a cumulative cash dividend of no less than 40% of the distributable profits for the years 2025-2027 [3] Group 3: Export Market Expectations - The company expects continued growth in export revenues, driven by the increasing demand in overseas markets and the enhancement of domestic product quality [3] - The company has a global marketing network covering over 190 countries and regions, with international revenue accounting for 46.7% in the first three quarters of 2024 [4] Group 4: Export Product Breakdown - In the first half of 2024, the main export products and their respective shares are: earthmoving machinery (38%), lifting machinery (26%), mining machinery (8%), and road machinery (7%) [4]

Summary of Conference Call Company and Industry Involved - The conference call primarily discusses the performance and outlook of the engineering machinery industry, with a focus on companies such as XCMG (徐工机械) and SANY (三一重工) [2][6]. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Profit Growth Expectations**: Many companies, including XCMG, are expected to achieve profit growth rates exceeding 20% in 2023, compared to last year's growth of around 4-5% [1][3]. 2. **Engineering Machinery as a Key Sector**: The engineering machinery sector is highlighted as a key investment area, with XCMG and SANY identified as top picks for the year [2][3]. 3. **Revenue Growth Projections**: Overall revenue growth for the engineering machinery sector is projected to be in the range of 10-20%, driven by both domestic and international demand [3][19]. 4. **Export Growth**: A significant portion of revenue growth is attributed to overseas exports, particularly in regions such as Africa, the Middle East, and Southeast Asia, where market share is increasing [4][19]. 5. **Domestic Demand**: Domestic demand is also expected to grow, with estimates ranging from 5% to over 10% [3][19]. 6. **Market Conditions**: The overall market conditions are optimistic, with a strong start to Q1 2023, and expectations of continued growth throughout the year [5][19]. 7. **Technological Advancements**: XCMG is focusing on technological improvements and smart manufacturing, which are anticipated to enhance profit margins and operational efficiency [17][19]. 8. **Mining Machinery Segment**: The mining machinery segment is highlighted as a rapidly growing area, with XCMG achieving significant market share improvements, ranking fourth globally in surface mining equipment [15][16]. 9. **Valuation and Investment Potential**: Current valuations for XCMG are considered low, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio around 12, suggesting potential for upward adjustment [6][13]. 10. **Impact of Policy Changes**: Recent policy changes and government support for infrastructure projects are expected to positively impact the engineering machinery sector [11][19]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Seasonal Factors**: The timing of the Chinese New Year in 2023 (January 29) compared to 2022 (February 10) has positively influenced January and February sales data [5][10]. 2. **Foreign Exchange Considerations**: XCMG's operations in Brazil are significant, with currency fluctuations impacting financial performance; the Brazilian real has shown signs of recovery [12]. 3. **Long-term Market Trends**: The long-term outlook for the engineering machinery market remains positive, with expectations of sustained growth driven by infrastructure development and equipment upgrades [11][19]. 4. **Competitive Landscape**: The competitive landscape is evolving, with XCMG increasing its visibility and competitiveness in the global mining machinery market [15][19]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and projections discussed during the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future outlook of the engineering machinery industry.