连续5个交易日涨停后，海立股份（600619）宣布在近两日遭到股东减持，实施减持的股东是入股超六 年的格力电器（000651）。 11月8日晚间，海立股份公告，在11月7日至11月8日期间，格力电器以集中竞价方式减持公司股份 676.37万股，减持比例0.63%。本次减持后，格力电器方面对海立股份的持股比例由5.63%降至5%以 下。 Wind统计，11月7日至11月8日两个交易日，海立股份平均股价为18.1元/股，估算格力电器在这两个交 易日减持的成交额约为1.22亿元。而以海立股份今日收盘价估算，格力电器所持剩余约5%股份，整体 价值约10亿元。 值得注意的是，格力电器本次减持时间点处于海立股份股价异动期间，11月4日至8日期间的5个交易 日，海立股份全部完成涨停。其间，海立股份还曾披露股票交易风险提示公告称，对于社会舆情中讨论 涉及的公司重组等传闻，公司未接到控股股东关于上述传闻事项的有关信息。 事实上，截至今年三季度末，格力电器对海立股份的持股比例还高达8.41%，这意味着，自10月1日至 今，格力电器对海立股份累计减持的股份比例已经达到了3.41%以上。以四季度以来海立股份平均15元/ 股的股价估算 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Gree Electric Appliances (000651.SZ) with a current price of 43.90 CNY and a target price of 54.10 CNY [2]. Core Insights - The company's Q3 net profit margin reached a historical high, driven by improved operational trends from the replacement policy [2][4]. - Gree's revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 was 147.4 billion CNY, a year-over-year decrease of 5%, while net profit increased by 9% to 22 billion CNY [3][4]. - The report highlights that the "old-for-new" policy is expected to significantly enhance domestic demand and improve product structure and profit margins [5]. Revenue Analysis - In Q3 2024, Gree's revenue was 47.1 billion CNY, down 16% year-over-year, with a net profit of 7.8 billion CNY, reflecting a 5% increase [3][4]. - The main business revenue for H1 2024 was 90 billion CNY, showing a 10% increase year-over-year, while other business revenue fell by 43% [3]. - The report indicates that the pressure on the main business in Q3 was primarily due to weak domestic demand, but the "old-for-new" policy is expected to improve this situation [3][4]. Profitability Analysis - Gree's Q3 gross margin was 29.7%, with a net profit margin of 16.7%, marking a year-over-year increase of 3.4 percentage points [4]. - The report attributes the improvement in profitability to better revenue structure and channel reforms [4]. - Cash quality has improved, with operating cash flow in Q3 at 7.6 billion CNY, compared to 8.1 billion CNY in Q2 [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that Gree's strong profit resilience and stable performance in a weak industry environment justify an upward revision of the target price to 54.10 CNY, corresponding to a PE ratio of 10 times for 2024 earnings [5]. - The report maintains profit forecasts for 2024-2026 at 30.3 billion CNY, 32.9 billion CNY, and 36.4 billion CNY respectively, indicating a stable growth outlook [5][6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Gree Electric Appliances with a current price of 43.50 CNY and an estimated EPS of 5.7 CNY, 6.16 CNY, and 6.75 CNY for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, corresponding to valuations of 8X, 7X, and 6X [1][2]. Core Insights - Gree Electric Appliances reported a revenue of 147.42 billion CNY for the first three quarters of 2024, a decrease of 5.4% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 9.3% to 21.96 billion CNY [2][3]. - The company's main business revenue grew by 2.9% year-on-year, while other business revenue fell by 45.3% due to structural adjustments [3]. - The "old-for-new" policy is expected to boost future demand, with a positive outlook for Q4 as production for both domestic and international sales is projected to increase significantly [3]. Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, Gree's revenue was 47.13 billion CNY, down 15.9% year-on-year, but net profit increased by 5.5% to 7.82 billion CNY [2][4]. - The gross margin for Q3 2024 was 29.7%, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin improved by 2.7 percentage points to 15.6% [4]. - The company has shown significant improvement in expense ratios, with sales expenses decreasing by 4.4 percentage points [4]. Market Outlook - The air conditioning industry is currently under pressure, but the "old-for-new" policy is anticipated to stimulate domestic sales, with production forecasts indicating a recovery in Q4 [3]. - The report highlights that the overall trend for Gree aligns with the industry, indicating a potential rebound in sales as the market adjusts [3].

Investment Rating - Buy (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company's Q3 performance met expectations, with Q3 revenue of 47.1 billion yuan (-16% YoY) and net profit attributable to the parent company of 7.8 billion yuan (+5.5% YoY) [2] - Q1-3 revenue was 147.4 billion yuan (-5% YoY), with net profit attributable to the parent company of 22 billion yuan (+9% YoY) [2] - The company's channel reform has been effective, leading to a significant decrease in sales expense ratio (4%, -4% YoY) [3] - The company's Q1-3 performance has consistently met or exceeded market expectations, with both domestic and export sales showing positive trends in Q4 [4] Financial Performance and Forecast Revenue and Profit - 2022A revenue: 190.151 billion yuan, 2023A revenue: 205.018 billion yuan (+8% YoY), 2024E revenue: 205.855 billion yuan (+0% YoY), 2025E revenue: 212.642 billion yuan (+3% YoY), 2026E revenue: 219.490 billion yuan (+3% YoY) [1] - 2022A net profit attributable to the parent company: 24.507 billion yuan, 2023A net profit attributable to the parent company: 29.017 billion yuan (+18% YoY), 2024E net profit attributable to the parent company: 31.870 billion yuan (+10% YoY), 2025E net profit attributable to the parent company: 33.165 billion yuan (+4% YoY), 2026E net profit attributable to the parent company: 34.970 billion yuan (+5% YoY) [1] Key Financial Ratios - 2022A ROE: 25%, 2023A ROE: 25%, 2024E ROE: 23%, 2025E ROE: 20%, 2026E ROE: 19% [1] - 2022A P/E: 9.9x, 2023A P/E: 8.4x, 2024E P/E: 7.6x, 2025E P/E: 7.4x, 2026E P/E: 7.0x [1] - 2022A P/B: 2.5x, 2023A P/B: 2.1x, 2024E P/B: 1.8x, 2025E P/B: 1.5x, 2026E P/B: 1.3x [1] Cash Flow and Balance Sheet - 2023A operating cash flow: 56.398 billion yuan, 2024E operating cash flow: 42.937 billion yuan, 2025E operating cash flow: 38.576 billion yuan, 2026E operating cash flow: 39.250 billion yuan [6] - 2023A total assets: 368.054 billion yuan, 2024E total assets: 392.591 billion yuan, 2025E total assets: 422.271 billion yuan, 2026E total assets: 446.419 billion yuan [6] Industry and Market Analysis - Q3 domestic sales of air conditioners decreased by 20%, while export sales increased by 43% [3] - Q4 production of air conditioners is expected to increase by 50%, with the company benefiting from this trend [4] - The company's export revenue accounts for only 15-20% of total revenue, which is lower than peers, making it less affected by tariff risks [4] Valuation and Investment Recommendation - The company's 2024-2026 revenue is forecasted to be 205.9/212.6/219.5 billion yuan, with net profit attributable to the parent company of 31.9/33.2/35.0 billion yuan [4] - The company's 2024/2025/2026 P/E ratios are 8/7/7x, supporting the "Buy" rating [4]

股 票 研 究 公 司 更 新 报 告 证 券 研 究 报 告 国泰君安版权所有发送给上海东方财富金融数据服务有限公司.东财接收研报邮箱.ybjieshou@eastmoney.com p1 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2024.11.03 ——2024Q3 业绩点评 收入短期承压，期待国补拉动下的改善 格力电器(000651) 家用电器业[Table_Industry] /可选消费品 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------|-------------------------------------|--------------------|-------|---------------------------|-------|-------| | | | | | | | | | | [table_Authors] 蔡雯娟 ( 分析师 ) | 樊夏俐 ( 分析师 ) | | 李汉颖 ( 研究助理 | ) | | | | 021-38031654 | 021-38676666 | | 010-83939833 | | | | | ...

2024 年 10 月 31 日 公司点评 买入/维持 格力电器(000651) 目标价: 昨收盘:45.78 格力电器：2024Q3 利润端实现稳健增长，净利率涨幅较为显著 ◼ 走势比较 (20%) (2%) 16% 34% 52% 70% 23/10/3124/1/1224/3/2524/6/624/8/1824/10/30 格力电器 沪深300 ◼ 股票数据 总股本/流通(亿股) 56.01/55.15 总市值/流通(亿元) 2,564.32/2,524.97 12 个月内最高/最低 价(元) 52.73/30.78 相关研究报告 <<格力电器：2024Q2 盈利能力持续提 升，空调品类和外销业务实现较快增 长>>--2024-09-03 <<格力电器系列深度（一）：家空主业 为锚龙头地位稳固，铜价上涨+红海事 件拉动行业排产快增>>--2024-06-17 <<格力电器：2024Q1 盈利能力持续提 升，投资 30 亿元启动"以旧换新"活 动>>--2024-05-05 证券分析师：孟昕 E-MAIL：mengxin@tpyzq.com 分析师登记编号：S1190524020001 研究助理：赵梦菲 ...

上 市 公 司 证 券 研 究 报 告 家用电器 2024 年 11 月 01 日 格力电器 (000651) ——2024 年三季报点评：Q3 收入承压，盈利能力持续 提升 | --- | --- | |------------------------------------|-------------------------------| | 市场数据： | 2024 年 10 月 31 日 | | 收盘价（元） | 43.50 | | 一年内最高/最低（元） | 52.73/30.78 | | 市净率 | 1.9 | | 息率（分红/股价） | 5.47 | | 流通 A 股市值（百万元） | 239,922 | | 上证指数/深证成指 | 3,279.82/10,591.22 | | 注："息率"以最近一年已公布分红计算 | | | --- | --- | |-----------------------------------------------------------|-------------------------------| | 基础数据 : | 2024 年 09 月 30 日 | ...

证券研究报告 非金融公司|公司点评|格力电器（000651） 2024 三季报点评： 营收短期承压，盈利能力大幅提升 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 glzqdatemark1 2024年10月31日 证券研究报告 |报告要点 格力电器 2024Q3 实现营业收入 469.39 亿元，同比下滑 15.84%，归母净利润 78.25 亿元，同 比增长 5.47%。24Q3 公司营收承压，盈利能力改善；而结合报表和动销趋势，公司渠道库存或 进一步向下，以旧换新政策带动下，近期空调零售数据好转，四季度公司改善可期；而股息率 铸就公司安全边际，看好公司估值业绩修复空间。 |分析师及联系人 管泉森 孙珊 贺本东 蔡奕娴 SAC：S0590523100007 SAC：S0590523110003 SAC：S0590523110005 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 1 / 6 非金融公司|公司点评 glzqdatemark2 2024年10月31日 格力电器(000651) 2024 三季报点评： 营收短期承压，盈利能力大幅提升 | --- | --- | |----------------------------|---- ...

公司报告 | 季报点评 业绩以稳步增长度过行业底部，Q4 迎以旧换新拉动 事件：公司 2024 年前三季度实现营业收入 1474.16 亿元，同比-5.39%，归 母净利润 219.61 亿元，同比+9.3%；其中 2024Q3 实现营业收入 471.3 亿元， 同比-15.87%，归母净利润 78.25 亿元，同比+5.47%。 收入下降主要来自业务结构调整，3Q 空调出货亦有需求压力但以旧换新 或将带动四季度出货 分业务看，公司 24 年前三季度主营业务收入为 1322 亿元同比增长 2.9%， 其他业务收入为 145.2 亿元同比下降 45.3%（连续三年收缩）。其中 24Q3 核心主营收入同比-10%，收入占比第二大的其他业务收入同比-48%。我们 认为主要由于二季度较差的零售，可能使得经销商在开盘补库上较为谨慎； 与去年同期大旺季相比，本年开盘后经销商补库意愿较弱，可能使公司在 Q3 实际出货水平较弱。随着 Q4 以旧换新在全国范围落地，公司出货和终 端销售呈现环比改善。根据奥维数据显示，24W40-42（9/30-10/20）格力 空调线上/下销额同比+129%/+175%，后续随着双十一大促的平 ...

格力电器（ [Table_StockNameRptType] 000651） 公司点评 经营提质增效 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|----------------|----------------|---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...