Group 1: Market Overview - A-shares showed divergence with major consumer indices experiencing slight pullbacks, as the Consumption ETF (159928) fell by 0.38% with a trading volume exceeding 250 million yuan, while it received a net inflow of 16 million units during the session [1] - The Hong Kong stock market also saw a minor pullback in the new consumption sector, with the Hong Kong Stock Connect Consumption 50 ETF (159268) declining by 0.32% and a trading volume over 65 million yuan, marking a fourth consecutive day of significant net inflow [4] Group 2: Alcohol Industry Insights - The wholesale price of Feitian Moutai has dropped to 1,500 yuan per bottle, marking a 20% year-on-year decline and a 40% decrease compared to two years ago, while Wuliangye is set to reduce its dealer invoice price from 1,019 yuan to 900 yuan starting in 2026 [3][8] - Analysts suggest that the price adjustments in high-end liquor, particularly by leading brands like Moutai and Wuliangye, may signal a broader industry correction, potentially leading to a new round of "deflating bubbles" in the sector [9][10] Group 3: Consumer Sector Valuation - The Consumption ETF (159928) is currently trading at a TTM P/E ratio of 19.32, which is in the 2.84% percentile of the past decade, indicating a high valuation attractiveness compared to historical levels [6] - As the year-end approaches, market trends may shift towards undervalued stocks, with seasonal patterns suggesting a potential change in investment styles during Q4 [6] Group 4: Economic Indicators - November CPI data showed a year-on-year increase of 0.7%, driven by a rebound in food prices, particularly fresh vegetables, which rose by 7.2% month-on-month [11][12] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, remained stable with a year-on-year increase of 1.2%, indicating ongoing consumer demand recovery amidst economic adjustments [12][13] Group 5: ETF Composition - The top ten holdings of the Consumption ETF (159928) account for over 68.55% of its weight, with four leading liquor companies comprising 32% of the total, alongside significant positions in pork production and other consumer staples [13][14]

Core Viewpoint - The food and beverage sector is experiencing a pullback, with the Food ETF (515710) showing a decline of 0.34% as of the latest update, driven by poor performance in consumer staples and certain liquor stocks [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The food and beverage sector has seen significant capital inflow, with over 96 million yuan invested in the Food ETF (515710) over the past five trading days [3] - Major liquor companies, Guizhou Moutai and Wuliangye, announced interim dividend distributions totaling approximately 40 billion yuan, with Moutai distributing 30 billion yuan and Wuliangye distributing 10 billion yuan [3] Group 2: Valuation and Investment Opportunities - The valuation of the food and beverage sector is at a historical low, with the price-to-earnings ratio of the Food ETF's underlying index at 19.99, placing it in the 4.7% percentile of the last decade [4] - Analysts suggest that the current market conditions present a favorable opportunity for left-side positioning in the sector, particularly in high-quality assets like liquor and consumer staples [4] - Recommendations include focusing on leading companies with stable demand and strong risk resilience, as well as those actively developing new products and channels [4] Group 3: ETF Composition - The Food ETF (515710) tracks the CSI Sub-Industry Food and Beverage Index, with approximately 60% of its holdings in high-end and mid-range liquor stocks, and nearly 40% in beverage, dairy, seasoning, and beer sectors [5] - The top ten weighted stocks in the ETF include major brands such as Moutai, Wuliangye, and Yili [5]

采写 | 南都·湾财社记者 张海霞 本文自南都·湾财社。 其中，贵州茅台2025年中期分红方案为：每股派发现金红利23.957元（含税），总股本12.52亿股，共计派发现金红利300.01亿元（含税）。五粮液中期利 润分配方案为：以公司总股本38.82亿股为基数，向全体股东每10股派25.78元现金（含税），合计100.07亿元（含税）。 有行业人士分析认为，头部白酒企业高分红是其稳健的财务状况、积极回馈投资者、投资价值的体现，也应注意到高分红仅是上市公司的单一指标，投资 者需要结合多维度综合考虑投资价值。 来源于五粮液《股东回报规划》 据南都湾财社记者统计，贵州茅台2024年中期分红300亿元、2024年年度分红346.71亿元，合计超600亿元，占茅台2024年净利润862.3亿元的比例为75%； 五粮液2024年中期分红100亿元（含税）叠加2024年度分红123.01亿元（含税），合计223.01亿元，占公司2024年度净利润的比例为70.02%。 | 股份类别 | 股权登记日 | 最后交易日 除权（息）日 现金红利发放日 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | ...

Group 1 - The food and beverage sector experienced a decline on December 11, with the Food ETF (515710) down by 0.34% [1][2] - Major consumer goods stocks, particularly some liquor stocks, performed poorly, with Yangyuan Beverage dropping over 5% and others like Jiu Gui Jiu and San Quan Food down more than 2% [1][2] - Conversely, leading liquor brands such as Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye showed slight gains despite the overall sector downturn [1] Group 2 - Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye announced interim dividend distributions of approximately 40 billion yuan combined, with Moutai distributing 30 billion yuan and Wuliangye 10 billion yuan [3] - These two companies are the top-weighted stocks in the Food ETF (515710), with respective holdings of 14.89% and 14.65% as of Q3 2025 [3][4] Group 3 - The valuation of the food and beverage sector is currently at a historical low, with the Food ETF's underlying index P/E ratio at 19.99, placing it in the 4.7% percentile over the past decade [4] - Analysts suggest that this may present a good opportunity for left-side positioning in the sector [4] Group 4 - Citic Securities noted that the recent price drop of Moutai is temporarily suppressing sector performance, but potential policy-driven consumption catalysts in December could provide support [5] - The food and beverage sector is showing signs of relative return as market styles shift, with recommendations to focus on stable demand leaders and companies innovating in new products and channels [5] Group 5 - The Food ETF (515710) tracks the CSI sub-index for the food and beverage industry, with approximately 60% of its holdings in high-end and mid-range liquor stocks, and nearly 40% in beverage, dairy, seasoning, and beer leaders [5] - Investors can also consider the Food ETF linked funds (Class A 012548/Class C 012549) for exposure to core assets in the food and beverage sector [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5][16] Core Views - The company is facing supply-demand contradictions that are nearing their limits, leading to a necessary adjustment in its operational pace. The report anticipates a stabilization in pricing following a match between supply and actual market demand [5][8] - The core product's price has decreased from 930 to around 800 yuan, particularly with a rapid decline in the third quarter, raising concerns about the sustainability of future growth. However, the report suggests that the risks are gradually being released and that the company is entering a clearing phase in its Q3 performance [5][6] - Due to weak consumer demand, the profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been revised downwards, with expected net profits of 26.81 billion, 28.09 billion, and 30.36 billion yuan respectively, reflecting year-on-year changes of -15.8%, +4.8%, and +8.1% [5][9] Financial Summary - The company's total revenue for 2025 is projected to be 78.62 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 11.8%. The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 26.81 billion yuan, down 15.8% year-on-year [9][11] - The gross margin is expected to be 75.9% in 2025, with a net margin of 35.7% [9][12] - The company's P/E ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 16.6, 15.8, and 14.6 respectively [9][11]

Group 1: Dividend Indices - The Low Volatility Dividend Index (H30269.CSI) includes 50 securities with good liquidity, continuous dividends, moderate payout ratios, positive growth in dividends per share, high dividend yields, and low volatility, with a 1-year dividend yield of 4.21% as of December 10 [1] - The Dividend Quality Index (931468.CSI) consists of 50 listed companies that provide continuous cash dividends, have high payout ratios, and exhibit strong profitability, with a 1-year dividend yield of 3.48% as of December 10 [1] Group 2: Company Dividend Announcements - Kweichow Moutai announced a cash dividend of 23.957 RMB per share (tax included), with the record date on December 18, 2025, and the ex-dividend date on December 19, 2025 [1] - Wuliangye announced a cash dividend of 25.78 RMB for every 10 shares (tax included), with the record date on December 17, 2025, and the ex-dividend date on December 18, 2025 [2] - Yidong Electronics declared a cash dividend of 1.00 RMB for every 10 shares (tax included), with the record date on December 16, 2025, and the ex-dividend date on December 17, 2025 [2] - Shouchuang Securities announced a cash dividend of 0.10 RMB per share (tax included), with the record date on December 18, 2025, and the ex-dividend date on December 19, 2025 [2] - Ningbo Bank declared a cash dividend of 3.00 RMB for every 10 shares (tax included), with the record date on December 16, 2025, and the ex-dividend date on December 17, 2025 [3] - Marco Polo announced a cash dividend of 3.00 RMB for every 10 shares (tax included), with the record date on December 17, 2025, and the ex-dividend date on December 18, 2025 [3]

Core Viewpoint - Wuliangye is enhancing its international presence by launching the new product 29° Wuliangye "First Love" in Australia, showcasing the cultural confidence and brand vitality of Chinese liquor [1] Group 1: Product Launch and Market Strategy - The launch event took place at a landmark restaurant near the Sydney Opera House, blending "Eastern taste" with "Southern Hemisphere aesthetics" [2] - The new product is designed to cater to modern international taste preferences and the trend towards lower alcohol content, aiming to attract younger consumers and high-end dining channels [2][3] - The product features stylish packaging and a friendly taste profile, which local distributors believe will lead to a new trend in local spirits consumption [2] Group 2: Brand Image and Cultural Exchange - The launch is part of Wuliangye's global strategy to refresh its brand image, emphasizing a lifestyle of sharing and enjoyment [3] - The event serves as a platform for cultural exchange, embodying Wuliangye's "Harmony and Beauty" philosophy on a global scale [3] Group 3: Youth-Oriented Strategy - The 29° Wuliangye "First Love" product is a pioneering effort in Wuliangye's youth-oriented and low-alcohol strategy, reflecting a broader initiative to engage younger consumers [4] - The company has appointed Chinese singer G.E.M. as the global ambassador for the product, utilizing concert tours and pop-up stores to interact with younger audiences [4] - Collaborative events with trendy brands like "Pure K" are extending the consumption scenarios of Wuliangye beyond traditional settings [4] Group 4: Sales and Digital Innovation - Wuliangye is shifting from traditional offline distribution to an "online direct sales, e-commerce first" model, launching a mini-program to enhance consumer engagement [5] - The product achieved over 100 million yuan in sales within 60 days of launch, validating the effectiveness of this new sales model [6] - The brand aims to connect with consumers across different regions and cultural backgrounds, reinforcing its commitment to the "Harmony and Beauty" values [6] Group 5: Future Outlook - Wuliangye plans to deepen brand building and product deployment in global markets, transitioning from market entry to value cultivation [6] - The company aims to bring more "Harmony and Beauty" experiences to consumers, fostering cross-cultural resonance in lifestyle [6]

Core Viewpoint - The recent price adjustments of high-end liquor brands, particularly Moutai and Wuliangye, indicate a significant shift in the Chinese liquor industry, reflecting broader market pressures and consumer behavior changes [1][4][13]. Price Trends - The wholesale reference price for 25-year Moutai has dropped to 1500 yuan per bottle, just 1 yuan above the official guidance price of 1499 yuan, marking a new historical low [1][5]. - Moutai's price has seen a continuous decline throughout the year, previously exceeding 2200 yuan per bottle at the beginning of the year [5]. - Wuliangye plans to reduce its dealer invoice price from 1019 yuan to 900 yuan starting in 2026, although the factory price remains unchanged [3][7]. Market Dynamics - The price adjustments by Moutai and Wuliangye are viewed as indicators of a potential industry-wide price correction, with analysts suggesting that high-end liquor prices may continue to decline [4][14]. - The current market environment is characterized by high inventory levels and a rational consumer approach, leading to downward pressure on prices [4][10][14]. - The industry is experiencing a "de-financialization" phase, with speculation diminishing as the price gap narrows [6]. Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the high-end liquor market may see a structural reshaping, with a potential recovery in prices expected around the second quarter of 2026, contingent on economic recovery and genuine consumer demand [4][14]. - The industry is currently in a cautious phase, with companies focusing on reducing channel pressure and adjusting product strategies to maintain profitability [14]. Stock Performance - As of December 10, Moutai's stock closed at 1402.80 yuan per share, with a market capitalization of 1.76 trillion yuan, while Wuliangye's stock closed at 111.62 yuan per share, with a market capitalization of 433.3 billion yuan [15].

Group 1 - Wuliangye announced a mid-term cash dividend plan for 2025, distributing 25.78 RMB per 10 shares, totaling 100.07 billion RMB, reflecting strong cash flow and profitability [1] - The dividend distribution is a clear signal of the company's commitment to shareholder returns and market confidence, enhancing its attractiveness as a value investment [1] Group 2 - Zhenjiu launched a high-end zodiac wine product priced at 4,888 RMB per jar, aiming to enhance brand value through cultural storytelling and attract high-net-worth consumers [2] - This product introduction represents a strategic move towards premiumization and optimization of the company's product matrix and profit structure [2] Group 3 - Gulin County introduced ten measures to support the development of the liquor industry, including financial incentives for capacity construction and brand promotion [3] - The policy provides substantial support for local enterprises, with a maximum subsidy of 5 million RMB for capacity expansion, directly benefiting key companies like Langjiu [3] - The comprehensive approach of the measures aims to stabilize the regional liquor industry and promote sustainable growth [3]

【点击进入酒价内参，查看真实酒价】 白酒业的上市公司新闻方面，两大白酒龙头贵州茅台与五粮液近日相继发布了2025年中期权益分派方 案，合计将向股东派发约400亿元的现金红利。其中贵州茅台拟每股派现23.957元，合计300.01亿元；五 粮液拟每10股派现25.78元，合计100.07亿元。以12月10日贵州茅台收盘价1402.80元计算，该股分红率 为1.71%；五粮液收盘价为111.62元，分红率为2.31%。 新浪财经"酒价内参"过去24小时中收集的数据显示，白酒市场十大单品的终端零售均价周四整体继续小 幅回调。如果十大单品各取一瓶整体打包售价为9138元，较昨日回落10元，创下本月来新低。 "酒价内参"的每日数据源自全国各个大区均有合理分布的约200个采集点，包括但不限于酒企的指定经 销商、社会经销商、主流电商平台和零售网点等，原始取样数据为过去24个小时中各点位经手的真实成 交终端零售价格，确保为社会各界提供一份关于知名白酒市场价格的客观、真实、科学、全程可追溯的 数据。 今日市场跌多涨少，结构性分化持续。值得关注的是，五粮液普五八代在昨日因渠道开票价调整消息显 著下跌后，今日价格环比大幅反弹10元 ...