证券代码：000878 证券简称：云南铜业 公告编号：2025-074 云南铜业股份有限公司 第十届董事会第五次会议决议公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确、完整， 没有虚假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 云南铜业股份有限公司（以下简称云南铜业或公司或上 市公司）第十届董事会第五次会议以通讯方式召开，会议通 知于 2025 年 9 月 26 日以加密邮件方式发出，表决截止日期 为 2025 年 9 月 29 日，会议应发出表决票 11 份，实际发出 表决票 11 份，在规定时间内收回有效表决票 11 份，会议符 合《中华人民共和国公司法》（以下简称《公司法》）及《云 南铜业股份有限公司章程》（以下简称《公司章程》）的规 定。会议表决通过了如下决议： 一、关联董事回避表决后，以 7 票同意，0 票反对，0 票弃权，审议通过《关于调整云南铜业股份有限公司发行股 份购买资产并募集配套资金暨关联交易方案且本次交易方 案调整不构成重大调整的议案》； 上市公司 2025 年第三次临时股东会审议通过了《关于 云南铜业股份有限公司发行股份购买资产并募集配套资金 暨关联交易方案的议案》，同意上市公司向云南铜业 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1]. Core Views - The company is a leading domestic copper smelting enterprise with a robust profit model and a significant asset injection from its major shareholder [3]. - The company has a well-structured mining segment, with the main asset being the Pulang Copper Mine, which has a stable annual copper production of 35,000 to 40,000 tons [3]. - The company is set to enhance its resource reserves and industrial layout through the acquisition of a 40% stake in Liangshan Mining, which will increase its copper production capacity significantly [3]. - The company is positioned to benefit from the anticipated recovery in copper prices and has a strong profit outlook for the coming years [3]. Company Overview - Yunnan Copper Industry Co., Ltd. is a state-owned enterprise established in 1958, originally part of China's first five-year plan [11]. - The company is the only publicly listed platform for the copper segment under the Aluminum Corporation of China (Chinalco) [16]. - The company has a total copper smelting capacity of 140,000 tons, ranking third in China, with significant production facilities located in Yunnan, Inner Mongolia, and Fujian [60]. Business Analysis - The company has a complete industrial chain in copper and related non-ferrous metals, including exploration, mining, and smelting [17]. - The main revenue source is from cathode copper, followed by by-products such as sulfuric acid and precious metals [17]. - The company has a total copper resource reserve of 470,000 tons, with the Pulang Copper Mine accounting for 60% of this reserve [3][24]. Profit Forecast and Investment Suggestions - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 201.8 billion, 209 billion, and 209 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits of 2.297 billion, 2.412 billion, and 3.912 billion yuan [3]. - The estimated earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 1.15, 0.99, and 1.61 yuan, respectively [3]. - The company is expected to achieve a reasonable valuation range of 18.4 to 20.7 yuan per share, indicating a potential premium of 15% to 29% over the current market value [3].

Core Viewpoint - Yunnan Copper has shown significant stock price appreciation this year, with a year-to-date increase of 36.74% and notable gains over various trading periods [2]. Group 1: Stock Performance - As of September 29, Yunnan Copper's stock price reached 16.34 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 15.06 billion CNY and a market capitalization of 327.39 billion CNY [1]. - The stock has increased by 6.24% over the last five trading days, 7.29% over the last 20 days, and 27.86% over the last 60 days [2]. Group 2: Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, Yunnan Copper reported operating revenue of 889.13 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4.27%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 13.17 billion CNY, which is a 24.32% increase year-on-year [2]. - The company has distributed a total of 40.19 billion CNY in dividends since its A-share listing, with 19.44 billion CNY distributed over the past three years [3]. Group 3: Shareholder Information - As of September 19, the number of shareholders for Yunnan Copper reached 169,000, an increase of 21.72% from the previous period, while the average number of circulating shares per shareholder decreased by 17.84% to 11,852 shares [2]. - The top ten circulating shareholders include Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited, which holds 33.06 million shares, a decrease of 10.14 million shares from the previous period [3].

Group 1 - The copper smelting industry in China is facing "involution" competition, leading to persistently low copper concentrate processing fees, which has become a major discussion point at the recent meeting of the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association [1] - The association has reported to relevant national departments, suggesting strict control over the expansion of copper smelting capacity, with measures expected to be implemented soon [1] - The processing fee for copper concentrate, which includes smelting and refining costs, has been under pressure, with both long-term and spot prices at historical lows, significantly impacting the profitability of smelting operations [1] Group 2 - Northern Copper Industry, the largest cathode copper supplier in North China, reported a decline in copper concentrate processing fees, with spot processing fees dropping to -40 USD/ton by the end of June [2] - Major companies like Tongling Nonferrous Metals experienced a 33.94% year-on-year decline in net profit, marking the first drop in five years, while Northern Copper's profit growth was only 5.85%, far below previous year's growth [2] - The gross profit margin for copper products has decreased across leading companies, with margins ranging from 1.9% to 8.2%, significantly affecting overall revenue as this segment accounts for over 70% of total income [2] Group 3 - The continuous low processing fees are primarily due to tightening copper concentrate supply, with a shift from surplus to shortage expected as global mining companies reduce future production guidance [3] - China's smelting capacity has been growing at a much faster rate than raw material supply, leading to increased supply-demand conflicts, with domestic smelting capacity growth around 15% as of July [3] - The combination of reduced production guidance from major copper mines and increasing demand from emerging industries like photovoltaics and electric vehicles is expected to keep copper concentrate supply tight, further lowering processing fees [3] Group 4 - Analysts noted that the tightening supply of copper ore is becoming more pronounced, with the surplus of electrolytic copper flowing to the U.S., exacerbating tensions in other regions [4] - Companies are responding to the low processing fees and raw material shortages by focusing on cost reduction and increasing the profitability of by-products [4] - Yunnan Copper reported a 24% year-on-year increase in net profit, attributing this to cost-cutting measures and increased contributions from by-products like sulfuric acid, which saw a significant rise in gross margin [4]

Core Viewpoint - The copper smelting industry in China is facing significant challenges due to "involution" competition, leading to persistently low copper concentrate processing fees, which has prompted industry associations to call for stricter control over smelting capacity expansion [1][2]. Industry Overview - The copper concentrate processing fee has been at historically low levels, with both long-term and spot prices remaining depressed, severely impacting profits in the smelting sector [1]. - The processing fee, which includes smelting and refining costs, has dropped significantly, with reports indicating that the spot processing fee fell to -$40 per ton by the end of June 2023 [2]. - Major companies like Tongling Nonferrous Metals and Northern Copper have reported declines in net profits due to the low processing fees, with Tongling's net profit down 33.94% year-on-year [2]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The decline in processing fees is primarily attributed to tightening copper concentrate supply, as the global supply-demand balance shifts from surplus to shortage [3]. - China's copper smelting capacity has been growing at a rate much faster than the supply of raw materials, leading to increased dependency on imports, which constitute over 80% of the copper ore supply [3]. - The production guidance for major copper mines has been revised downward, further tightening supply and leading to expectations of continued low processing fees [4]. Company Strategies - In response to the challenging environment, leading companies are focusing on cost reduction and enhancing the profitability of by-products to offset the impact of low processing fees [4]. - Yunnan Copper has reported a year-on-year net profit increase of over 24% by implementing cost-cutting measures and increasing the contribution of by-products like sulfuric acid, which saw a significant rise in gross margin [4].

Group 1 - The industrial metal sector increased by 0.43% on September 26, with Jingyi Co., Ltd. leading the gains at 10% [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3828.11, down 0.65%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13209.0, down 1.76% [1] - Key stocks in the industrial metal sector showed significant price movements, with Jingyi Co., Ltd. closing at 14.85 and a trading volume of 285,000 shares, resulting in a transaction value of 409 million yuan [1] Group 2 - The industrial metal sector experienced a net outflow of 293 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net outflow of 60.1 million yuan [2] - The sector attracted a net inflow of 354 million yuan from speculative funds [2] - Specific stocks like Luoyang Aluminum and Baiyin Nonferrous Metals had notable net inflows from institutional investors, while others like Lida New Materials faced significant outflows from retail investors [3]

Group 1 - The A-share market's copper concept stocks continue to strengthen, with Jingyi Co. achieving three consecutive trading limit increases, and other companies like Baiyin Nonferrous Metals, Jiangxi Copper, and Shengtun Mining also showing significant gains [1] - The China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association's Copper Branch firmly opposes "involution" competition within the copper smelting industry, indicating a push for more sustainable practices [1] - The Grasberg mine in Indonesia, the world's second-largest copper mine, has declared "force majeure" and ceased operations due to a landslide incident, impacting global copper supply [1]

Core Viewpoint - Yunnan Copper achieved record production and improved innovation capabilities despite challenges such as tight raw material supply and historically low copper processing fees [1][2] Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, Yunnan Copper reported operating revenue of 88.913 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.27% - The total profit reached 1.895 billion yuan, up 2.94% year-on-year - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.317 billion yuan, reflecting a significant year-on-year growth of 24.32% [1] Market Challenges - The copper industry faces significant pressure due to fluctuating U.S. tariff policies, market price differences, and limited copper concentrate supply [2] - The low processing fees have disrupted profit balance across the industry chain, exacerbated by volatile copper prices [2][3] - The price of London copper dropped by approximately 2000 USD/ton in early April due to U.S. tariff policies, leading to a rapid reversal in price differences between London and Shanghai copper [2] Operational Strategies - Yunnan Copper has actively engaged in the futures market for hedging and adjusted procurement strategies to mitigate market volatility [2][3] - The company has focused on cost reduction, efficiency improvement, and maximizing the profit potential of by-products like sulfuric acid [3] - The company achieved a cathode copper production of 779,400 tons in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 53.22% [3] Pricing Mechanism - The futures market plays a crucial role in pricing copper trades, with long-term contracts typically only specifying processing fees [4] - The pricing mechanism combines futures pricing with adjustments for quality, region, and other factors through a premium/discount system [4] Hedging Optimization - Yunnan Copper aims to enhance its hedging strategies to protect asset value and ensure stable operations amid market fluctuations [5] - The company tailors its risk management strategies based on annual market conditions, focusing on price decline risks for its mining operations [5][6] - The optimization includes adjusting marketing policies, managing positions dynamically, and ensuring adequate margin preparations [6] Risk Management - Effective risk management involves "current closure," where raw materials and products are traded at the same benchmark price to mitigate price risks [7] - The company emphasizes the importance of real-time hedging operations to minimize risks associated with price fluctuations over time [7] - By leveraging the transparent futures market, Yunnan Copper can strategically manage risk exposure and achieve profit objectives [7]

Company Overview - Yunnan Copper Industry Co., Ltd. was listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange in 1998, primarily engaged in copper exploration, mining, smelting, precious metals, and sulfur chemical production, with an annual cathode copper production capacity of 161,000 tons [2][3]. 2025 Half-Year Operating Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 18.95 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.27%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 13.17 billion yuan, up 24.32% year-on-year [3]. - Cathode copper production reached 779,400 tons, a 53.22% increase year-on-year; gold production was 12.19 tons, up 98.86%; silver production was 276.63 tons, up 98.70%; and sulfuric acid production was 2.8629 million tons, up 20.63% [3]. Resource Acquisition Strategy - The company is focusing on optimizing resource allocation and enhancing collaboration to improve production organization and cost control [3]. - As of June 2025, the company holds 956 million tons of copper ore resources, with a total copper metal content of 3.6137 million tons and an average grade of 0.38% [4]. Acquisition Plans - The company plans to acquire a 40% stake in Liangshan Mining Co., Ltd. from Yunnan Copper Group through a share issuance, which has been approved by the shareholders' meeting and is currently under review by the Shenzhen Stock Exchange [5]. Market and Pricing Strategy - The company monitors copper price trends influenced by global economic conditions, supply-demand dynamics, and market speculation, and adjusts its marketing strategies accordingly [7]. - The processing fees for smelting are determined through long-term contracts and spot market negotiations, ensuring stable supply relationships with major suppliers [8]. Cost Management and Efficiency - The company has established three major smelting bases and has implemented various cost-reduction and quality-improvement measures to enhance competitiveness [9][10]. - In response to declining processing fees, the company is focusing on digital transformation, resource expansion, and optimizing smelting operations to maintain profitability [11]. Risk Management - The company has implemented a hedging strategy to mitigate risks associated with raw material prices and foreign exchange fluctuations, achieving its risk management objectives [12].

Core Viewpoint - The copper metal sector in Hong Kong and A-shares has experienced significant gains due to a supply disruption at the Grasberg mine, which is expected to impact global copper supply and prices substantially [4][5][6]. Group 1: Market Performance - On September 25, copper-related stocks in Hong Kong surged, with China Nonferrous Mining (01258.HK) up 11.9%, Minmetals Resources (01208.HK) up 9.93%, and Jiangxi Copper (00358.HK) up 8.71% [2][3]. - A-share market also saw similar gains, with Luoyang Molybdenum (603993.SH) hitting the daily limit, and Northern Copper (000737.SZ) rising 8.77% [3]. Group 2: Copper Price Movement - Futures markets showed a strong upward trend, with Shanghai copper futures reaching a high of 82,920 yuan/ton, marking a 3.28% increase [4]. - The price of copper on the London Metal Exchange (LME) rose by 3.46% to $10,320 per ton on September 24, reaching $10,328.5 per ton on September 25, the highest level since June 2024 [5]. Group 3: Supply Disruption Details - The Grasberg mine, operated by Freeport-McMoRan, experienced a fatal landslide on September 8, leading to a complete production halt and an expected 35% drop in copper output for 2026 [5][6]. - The mine accounts for 3.2% of global copper supply and over 70% of Freeport's total copper production, indicating a significant impact on the overall market [5][6]. Group 4: Demand Outlook - The demand for copper is expected to remain strong due to its essential role in electric vehicles, power infrastructure, and AI data centers, with projections indicating that global data centers will consume over 4.3 million tons of copper in the next decade [7]. - Increased defense spending globally is also anticipated to drive copper demand, as it is required for various military applications [7]. Group 5: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The copper sector has seen heightened interest in capital markets, with the Hong Kong copper index up 167.5% and the corresponding A-share index up 62.12% [7]. - Analysts maintain a bullish outlook on copper prices, citing ongoing supply disruptions and favorable macroeconomic conditions as key factors [7].