Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the real estate industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The real estate industry is experiencing a decline in sales area, with a total of 880 million square meters sold in 2025, representing a year-on-year decrease of 8.7% [5][9] - In December 2025, the monthly sales area was 93.99 million square meters, showing a month-on-month increase of 39.88% but a year-on-year decrease of 15.60% [5] - The total sales revenue for 2025 was 839.37 billion yuan, down 12.60% year-on-year, with December's sales revenue at 88.07 billion yuan, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 44.09% but a year-on-year decrease of 23.60% [5] - The average sales price for the year was 9,527 yuan per square meter, down 0.20% month-on-month and 4.27% year-on-year [5] - The report anticipates improvements in market expectations due to policy support and effective supply management [5] Sales Summary - The total sales area for 2025 was 880 million square meters, with a year-on-year decline of 8.7% [5] - December 2025 saw a monthly sales area of 93.99 million square meters, a month-on-month increase of 39.88% but a year-on-year decrease of 15.60% [5] - The total sales revenue for 2025 was 839.37 billion yuan, with December's revenue at 88.07 billion yuan [5][9] Investment Summary - The total real estate development investment for 2025 was 827.88 billion yuan, down 17.20% year-on-year [13] - In December 2025, the monthly development investment was 41.97 billion yuan, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 16.53% and a year-on-year decrease of 35.79% [13] - New construction area for 2025 was 58.77 million square meters, down 20.40% year-on-year, with December's new construction area at 5.313 million square meters [16] Funding Summary - Total funding for real estate companies in 2025 was 931.17 billion yuan, down 13.40% year-on-year [22] - Domestic loans accounted for 140.94 billion yuan, a decrease of 7.3% year-on-year [22] - Self-raised funds totaled 331.49 billion yuan, down 12.20% year-on-year, while prepayments and deposits were 280.89 billion yuan, down 16.20% year-on-year [22] Investment Recommendations - The report highlights several companies with strong operational management and financial advantages, including China Merchants Shekou, Poly Developments, and Longfor Group, among others [39] - It suggests focusing on quality developers like Greentown China and China Overseas Development, as well as property management leaders like Greentown Service [39]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the real estate industry [1] Core Insights - The real estate industry is experiencing a decline in sales area, with a total of 880 million square meters sold in 2025, representing a year-on-year decrease of 8.7% [5][9] - In December 2025, the monthly sales area increased by 39.88% month-on-month but decreased by 15.60% year-on-year [5] - The total sales revenue for 2025 was 839.37 billion yuan, down 12.60% year-on-year, with December's sales revenue at 88.07 billion yuan, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 44.09% but a year-on-year decrease of 23.60% [5] - The average sales price for the year was 9,527 yuan per square meter, down 0.20% month-on-month and 4.27% year-on-year [5] - The report anticipates improvements in market expectations due to policy support and effective supply management [5] Sales Summary - National sales area for 2025 was 880 million square meters, with a year-on-year decline of 8.7% [5] - December 2025 saw a monthly sales area of 93.99 million square meters, a month-on-month increase of 39.88% but a year-on-year decrease of 15.60% [5] - The average sales price in December was 9,370 yuan per square meter, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 3.01% but a year-on-year decrease of 9.48% [5] Investment Summary - Total real estate development investment for 2025 was 827.88 billion yuan, down 17.20% year-on-year [13] - December 2025's monthly development investment was 41.97 billion yuan, showing a month-on-month decrease of 16.53% and a year-on-year decrease of 35.79% [13] - New construction area for 2025 was 58.77 million square meters, down 20.40% year-on-year, with December's new construction area at 5.313 million square meters, a month-on-month increase of 20.89% [16] - The total completed area for 2025 was 60.348 million square meters, down 18.10% year-on-year, with December's completed area at 20.894 million square meters, reflecting a significant month-on-month increase of 354.92% [18] Funding Summary - Total funds received by real estate companies in 2025 amounted to 931.17 billion yuan, down 13.40% year-on-year [22] - Domestic loans accounted for 140.94 billion yuan, down 7.3% year-on-year [22] - Self-raised funds totaled 331.49 billion yuan, down 12.20% year-on-year, while deposits and prepayments were 280.89 billion yuan, down 16.20% year-on-year [22] Investment Recommendations - The report highlights several companies with strong operational management and financial advantages, including China Merchants Shekou, Poly Developments, and Longfor Group, among others [39] - It suggests focusing on quality developers like Greentown China and China Overseas Development, as well as property management leaders like Greentown Service [39]

Core Insights - The report highlights a continuous improvement in the real estate sector, driven by favorable policies and a strengthening of the second-hand housing market [1] - The overall industry rating remains at "Buy," consistent with previous assessments [2] Group 1: Policy Developments - Central government policies are increasingly supportive, with the Ministry of Finance announcing an extension of the tax exemption policy for second-hand housing transactions until the end of 2027 [5][14] - The People's Bank of China has introduced measures including a 0.25 percentage point reduction in various structural monetary policy tool rates and a decrease in the minimum down payment for commercial properties from 50% to 30% [5][15] - The publication of multiple articles in "Qiushi" magazine indicates a heightened focus on real estate and urban development, suggesting a strong policy commitment [5][17] Group 2: Market Performance - The second-hand housing market has shown significant improvement, with a 40.3% year-on-year increase in transactions for the first 15 days of January, despite a 10% decline compared to the previous week [5][23] - New housing transactions remain low, with a 29.7% year-on-year decrease in sales volume, although there was a 9.9% week-on-week increase [5][23][26] - The average transaction price for second-hand homes in 33 cities increased by 0.6% week-on-week, indicating a stabilization in prices [5][25] Group 3: Land Market Dynamics - The total land transfer revenue remains low, with a 25.2% week-on-week decline and a 54.3% year-on-year decrease, reflecting weak market conditions [5][24] - There are localized instances of structural premiums in third and fourth-tier cities, suggesting potential opportunities despite overall market weakness [5][24] Group 4: Company Valuations and Financial Analysis - Key companies in the real estate sector, such as Vanke A and China Overseas Development, maintain a "Buy" rating with reasonable valuations projected for 2025 and 2026 [6] - The report includes detailed financial metrics for various companies, indicating expected earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios, which suggest potential for growth in the sector [6][30]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate industry [5] Core Insights - The report highlights ongoing government support for the real estate sector through tax policies aimed at reducing transaction costs and promoting housing demand, particularly for first-time buyers and those looking to upgrade [10][11] - The real estate market is currently experiencing a significant decline in new home sales, with a year-on-year decrease of 38.1% in new home transactions across 30 cities [2][23] - The report emphasizes that the current policies are extensions of previous measures and suggests that more substantial policy interventions may be necessary to stimulate the market [11] Summary by Sections Policy Review - The government has extended the personal income tax refund policy for residents purchasing new homes after selling their existing properties, effective from January 1, 2026, to December 31, 2027 [10] - The minimum down payment ratio for commercial property loans has been reduced to 30% to support the commercial real estate market [11] Market Performance - The real estate index decreased by 3.5% this week, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.95 percentage points, ranking 30th among 31 sectors [2][12] - New home sales in 30 cities totaled 119.1 million square meters this week, reflecting a 2.4% increase from the previous week but a 38.1% decrease year-on-year [23][25] - In the secondary housing market, transactions in 15 cities totaled 205.8 million square meters, showing a 3.8% increase week-on-week but a 7.6% decline year-on-year [31] Credit Market - A total of 14 corporate bonds were issued by real estate companies this week, with a total issuance of 12.11 billion yuan, marking a 54.8% increase from the previous week [3][40] - The net financing amount for the week was -2.7 billion yuan, indicating a decrease in net financing compared to the previous week [40] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on real estate stocks, particularly those of leading state-owned enterprises and quality private firms, as they are expected to benefit from the improving competitive landscape [3] - Recommended stocks include Green Town China, China Resources Land, and Poly Developments among others [3]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The report highlights a significant reduction in the minimum down payment ratio for commercial property loans to 30%, aimed at stimulating the commercial real estate market and facilitating inventory reduction [5][6] - The current inventory of commercial properties is high, with 141 million square meters of commercial space available for sale as of November 2025, including 52 million square meters of office space [6] - The report anticipates further policy easing to support the commercial real estate sector, as the current measures may have limited impact due to existing disadvantages in loan terms compared to residential mortgages [7][8] Summary by Sections Market Trends - The report indicates a downward trend in the commercial real estate market, with rising vacancy rates and declining rental prices [7] Policy Changes - The People's Bank of China has introduced measures to lower the down payment ratio for commercial property loans, which is expected to ease initial funding pressures for buyers [5][8] Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks include: 1. Companies benefiting from both residential and commercial real estate recovery: China Resources Land, New World Development, Longfor Group [8] 2. Firms with strong credit profiles and good understanding of customer demand: Greentown China, China Merchants Shekou, China Overseas Land & Investment [8] 3. High-quality property management companies under the "Good House, Good Service" policy: China Resources Mixc Lifestyle, Greentown Service, Poly Property [8]

Group 1 - The real estate development sector increased by 0.53% on January 15, with Bright Real Estate leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4112.6, down 0.33%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14306.73, up 0.41% [1] - Bright Real Estate's stock price rose by 10.09% to 3.82, with a trading volume of 410,100 shares and a transaction value of 152 million yuan [1] Group 2 - The real estate development sector experienced a net inflow of 395 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net outflow of 275 million yuan [2] - Major stocks in the sector showed varied performance, with Vanke A experiencing a net inflow of 235 million yuan from institutional investors, but a net outflow of 151 million yuan from retail investors [3] - Poly Development had a net inflow of 128 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors had a net outflow of 104 million yuan [3]

Group 1 - The core point of the news is that China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co., Ltd. experienced a stock price increase of 5.09%, reaching 9.49 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 549 million CNY and a turnover rate of 0.71%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 85.562 billion CNY [1] - The company, established on February 19, 1992, and listed on December 30, 2015, is based in Nanshan District, Shenzhen, Guangdong, and its main business includes park development and operation, community development and operation, and cruise industry construction and operation [1] - The revenue composition of the company is as follows: development business accounts for 77.54%, property services for 15.75%, and asset operation for 6.71% [1] Group 2 - From the perspective of major fund holdings, a fund under CITIC Securities has a significant position in China Merchants Shekou, with CITIC Securities Vision Return A (011868) holding 347,900 shares, representing 0.7% of the fund's net value, making it the fourth-largest holding [2] - The fund, established on August 10, 2021, has a latest scale of 417 million CNY, with a year-to-date return of 5.71% and a one-year return of 37.75%, ranking 3281 out of 8094 in its category [2] - The fund manager, Xie Wei, has a tenure of 7 years and 227 days, with the total asset scale of the fund being 1.904 billion CNY, achieving the best return of 96.41% and the worst return of -24.9% during his tenure [2]

Market Overview - On January 13, 2026, the equity market saw a majority of sectors decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Composite Index falling by 0.64% and 1.42% respectively. The CSI 300 and CSI 500 indices decreased by 0.60% and 1.28% respectively. The Shenwan Real Estate Index dropped by 1.67% [1] Individual Stock Performance - The top five gainers in the real estate sector were Daming City, Tibet Urban Investment, Rongfeng Holdings, Huali Family, and Nandu Property, with increases of 4.37%, 2.20%, 1.91%, 1.80%, and 1.79% respectively. Conversely, the largest decliners included Chengjian Development, Suzhou High-tech, Rongsheng Development, Hefei Urban Construction, and China Wuyi, with declines of -9.93%, -6.61%, -6.59%, -5.49%, and -5.46% respectively [2] Industry News - In Yinchuan, Ningxia, a dynamic adjustment mechanism for newly transferred commercial housing land has been implemented. The measures, effective from January 13, aim to promote stable and healthy development in the real estate market. They include linking residential land assessment prices to surrounding property sales prices, allowing installment payments for land transfer fees, and enhancing land use efficiency. Additional benefits for families with multiple children include increased public housing loan limits [3] - On January 13, three residential land parcels in Chengdu Tianfu New Area were successfully auctioned for a total of 9.27 billion yuan. The total land area was 55,000 square meters (approximately 82.55 acres), with a total planned construction area of 110,000 square meters. The Sichuan Urban Renewal Group won the auction at the starting price [4] Company Announcements - Xiamen C&D Inc. announced the issuance of its second short-term financing bond for 2026, amounting to 1 billion yuan with a term of 180 days. The bond will be used to supplement working capital for trade-related expenditures. The issuance date is set for January 14, 2026, with interest payments commencing on July 14, 2026 [5] - China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co., Ltd. announced the interest payment arrangement for its first medium-term note of 2022, totaling 645 million yuan with an interest rate of 3.3%. The interest payment date is scheduled for January 26, 2026, with maturity on January 26, 2027 [5]

Group 1 - The A-share market's duty-free concept stocks have weakened significantly, with Guangbai Co., Ltd. dropping over 5% [1] - Hainan Airport has seen a decline of more than 3% [1] - Other companies such as Zhongbai Group, Hainan Highway, Southern Airlines, Bubugao, China Merchants Shekou, Hainan Development, China Duty Free Group, Wushang Group, and Haixia Co. have all experienced declines of over 2% [1]

Group 1 - In the top 20 cities, 16 are core first and second-tier cities, with land transfer fees exceeding 140 billion yuan in Beijing, Hangzhou, and Shanghai, and Hangzhou's fees surpassing the total for 2024 in the first seven months [1] - The sales performance of the top 100 real estate companies is under pressure, with total sales expected to decline by 18.4% year-on-year to approximately 25,209 billion yuan in 2025, while the number of companies exceeding 10 billion yuan in sales has decreased [2][4] - The top 100 companies' land acquisition total is projected to reach 9,640 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.9% [2][7] Group 2 - The sales ranking of real estate companies is undergoing a reshuffle, with the top 10 companies accounting for 49.8% of total sales, an increase of 1.5 percentage points from 2024 [4] - Poly Developments leads the sales ranking with 253 billion yuan, followed closely by Greentown China, China Overseas Property, and China Resources Land, all exceeding 200 billion yuan in sales [4][5] - The land acquisition strategies of real estate companies remain cautious, with a focus on core cities, and the top 20 cities account for 52% of national land transfer fees, indicating a shift towards more stable markets [8][9]